BludgerTrack: 51.5-48.5 to Labor

A reasonably good result for the Coalition in a Queensland-only poll from Galaxy makes the only difference worth mentioning to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

The only new national federal poll this week was the usual entry from Essential Research, and as you may have guessed, it’s done next to nothing to alter the reading on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. However, we did get a federal poll of Queensland only for Galaxy, which gave the Coalition an above-par result in the most sensitive state in terms of marginal seats. That’s lifted them a notch on the seat tally, making an incremental contribution to the wearing away of Labor’s lead. Nothing new on leadership ratings this week, so that’s your lot.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,748 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.5-48.5 to Labor”

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  1. […wait, Newspoll never leaks this early.]

    And @PollAggregate is the saddest aggregate I’ve seen.

    They have a grand total of 20 tweets and their last update was six weeks ago. I don’t think they’re in the loop.

  2. bemused
    He may well be a Muslim but he does not make any attempt to influence others to be the same or to embrace it.

  7. What would happen to the census numbers if the question “What is the person’s religion?” be replaced by “What religion does the person currently practise?”?

  12. BK@2552

    bemused
    He may well be a Muslim but he does not make any attempt to influence others to be the same or to embrace it.

    Neither do any others I know.

    OTOH, I did try to tempt one into trying some ‘halal’ wine. 👿

  13. BK@2557

    What would happen to the census numbers if the question “What is the person’s religion?” be replaced by “What religion does the person currently practise?”?

    Hmmm that wouldn’t catch those who have perfected it and no longer feel the need to practise. 😆

  16. zoidlord

    [He wants a recession so he can force savage cuts in the budget.]

    Then he’s even more of an idiot.

  17. BK,

    It would render 100 years of similar questions redundant.
    The importance of polling and census data is to identify trends.

    Changing the questions indiscriminately to placate your personal prejudices or the PC fashions of the day makes the whole exercise a waste of time.

    But, prattle on. You know you need to.

  18. ratsak@2565

    I knew a guy who converted that was very excited to find Halal bacon (cured beef)

    Yep… I discovered ‘beef bacon’ and ‘turkey ham’ at my hotel in Malaysia. Never heard of them before.

  20. Greensborough Growler@2567

    BK,

    It would render 100 years of similar questions redundant.
    The importance of polling and census data is to identify trends.

    Changing the questions indiscriminately to placate your personal prejudices or the PC fashions of the day makes the whole exercise a waste of time.

    But, prattle on. You know you need to.

    Easily fixed.
    Ask both questions at the next census and after that only the new one.
    That allows the two data series to be linked.

  24. Bemused,

    People already hate the Census because it is too long and complicated. Now, you in your wisdom want to ask the same question more than once to accommodate the politically correct push.

    There should be a special levy on these sort of nonsense ideas. The deficit would be gone overnight.

    Good luck with that.

  25. mike,

    Apparently.

    But the same dickheads are happy to come on to forums like PB and complain that Governments never plan properly.

  26. mikehilliard@2566

    zoidlord

    He wants a recession so he can force savage cuts in the budget.

    Not sure if Tony “wants” a recession but I do wonder if they are unfazed about running up the deficit. The logic being that they have more to gain from the fear mongering around it and it puts policy limitations on the ALP.

    Then he’s even more of an idiot.

  28. Greensborough Growler@2574

    Bemused,

    People already hate the Census because it is too long and complicated. Now, you in your wisdom want to ask the same question more than once to accommodate the politically correct push.

    There should be a special levy on these sort of nonsense ideas. The deficit would be gone overnight.

    Good luck with that.

    So you would either never change a census question or, if you did, you would not provide the mechanism to link data series for questions on the same general topic?

    Glad you do not run the census.

  32. Shehan W ‏@shehanwije
    Stumped! @PeterDutton_MP – No answer 2basic qn when stripped dual citizen is refused to be taken back by other country? #abc730 #auspol

  34. bemused,

    I know you are trying to look and sound intelligent. But, you are too well known as a fantasiser to get away with your trickery. But, you keep trying.

    Of course questions can change. However, they need to be developed carefully and considerately and not by the whims of the bigots, the misinformed and the agenda pushers.

  37. [ Shehan W ‏@shehanwije
    Stumped! @PeterDutton_MP – No answer 2basic qn when stripped dual citizen is refused to be taken back by other country? #abc730 #auspol ]

    Did the muppett not even think to prepare an answer to that obvious question-in-waiting?

    Fark me. He really is a moron.

  40. Just Me

    In Scott Ludlum’s home town the Uni and army base districts scored 55.6% + 51.7% Heathen respectively.

  43. Any of the cane toads seen this poll?

    @Madhurip29K: #Galaxy Poll QLD Preferred Premier: Palaszczuk ALP 55 (+10) Springborg LNP 30 (-14 compared to Newman) #qldpol #auspol

  47. poroti

    Scott Ludlam is a Sheepens? Learn something new every day.

    51.7% is pretty good for a military community.

  49. [2569
    poroti]

    The devil’s not doing so well either…losing market share to the non-believers

    [The number of wiccan and witchcraft covens have fallen from 2082 to 1452 followers in the last Census. And the number of people who say they worship Satan has fallen from 1167 to 843.

    11. Wiccans and Satanists are most likely to be New Zealand Europeans.]

  50. [Queen Victoria
    34m34 minutes ago
    Queen Victoria ‏@Vic_Rollison
    So rather than debate SSM, Abbott was selling budget and Greens were conspicuously absent. Yet it was Labor playing politics? FFS!! Grow up!]

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