BludgerTrack: 51.5-48.5 to Labor

A reasonably good result for the Coalition in a Queensland-only poll from Galaxy makes the only difference worth mentioning to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

The only new national federal poll this week was the usual entry from Essential Research, and as you may have guessed, it’s done next to nothing to alter the reading on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. However, we did get a federal poll of Queensland only for Galaxy, which gave the Coalition an above-par result in the most sensitive state in terms of marginal seats. That’s lifted them a notch on the seat tally, making an incremental contribution to the wearing away of Labor’s lead. Nothing new on leadership ratings this week, so that’s your lot.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,748 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.5-48.5 to Labor”

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  1. guytaur

    [
    Media Watch showing the Media getting it wrong by taking LNP member press release as gospel.]
    Yeah but taking it as gospel requires no thought or effort. A very attraction for lazy buggers .

  2. Bemused

    It’s good to hear of others experiences.

    Flashy web sites and brochures can be deceiving.

    As for wheel chair facilities…OH said he is happy to have a sleep in the car.

  3. Dee@2703

    Bemused

    It’s good to hear of others experiences.

    Flashy web sites and brochures can be deceiving.

    As for wheel chair facilities…OH said he is happy to have a sleep in the car.

    But you should be able to get an honest answer to such matters as wheelchair facilities.

  4. poroti:

    Perhaps when more of the start taking some pride in their work by not simply doing ‘he said she said’ journalism we might get a better media.

  5. So does Jack.

    She thought she had a killer line about Goodes ‘having a chip on his shoulder’.

    Boom Boom.

  6. Did anyone else hear Scott Morrison say he opposes same-sex marriage because he believes in the separation of church and state?

    Is that the most absurd argument against same-sex marriage we have heard so far?

  7. [2678
    confessions

    briefly:

    Morrison apparently said the proposed laws were no different to removing the right to vote from prisoners while incarcerated. He really has no clue.]

    It’s clearly about securing a DD.

  8. [Is that the most absurd argument against same-sex marriage we have heard so far?]

    At the time I thought he’d made a reasonable start at arguing in favour of SSM, but I don’t think Morrison realised it.

  9. [i am sure you can top that for stupidity showson – just try a little harder.]
    June 12 you dizzy motherfarquer.

  10. [Morrison apparently said the proposed laws were no different to removing the right to vote from prisoners while incarcerated. He really has no clue.]
    That’s an interesting analogy when you consider that the previous parliament actually gave the right to vote back to a lot of prisoners.

  11. SO
    Not the most absurd, IMHO.

    There are people running around saying that god frowns upon it. That just has to be weirder. First god creates gays and then he makes them evil in the eyes of the Lord.

    So then he doubles up on it by making gays love gays and telling them that THAT is evil as well.

    And while god was at it, he slew Onan for spilling his seed.

    No, Morrison has a fair way to go before he gets to the most absurd rating.

  12. [2719
    confessions

    briefly:

    They’ve got a long way to go before they can use that as a DD trigger.]

    Yup, but it’s the obvious plan. They want to campaign on terror/security…on spurious grounds, to be sure, but on terrain that most favours them…

  13. Newspoll

    52-48 2PP to Labor

    Primaries: Coalition 41, Labor 37, Greens 13

    Abbott: Satisfied 38, Dissatisfied 53
    Shorten: Satisfied 32, Dissatisfied 50

    Better PM: Abbott 41, Shorten 37

    1169 sample, May 28-31

  14. Seriously?

    If you’re intending to go to Syria to be a suicide bomber, beware — we not only won’t let you back into Australia after you’ve blown yourself up, but we’ll strip you of your citizenship…

  15. 2720

    The High Court ruled that the law extending the ban on prisoners voting to sentences of less than 3 years was unconstitutional. The previous parliament was just bringing the law back in line with the court ruling.

  16. davidwh @ 2731

    [Anyone interested in a frozen cane toad?]

    Looks like gloryconsequence at 2733 is building up an appetite for a cane toad.

  17. I’m watching QandA

    I notice that Albanese has not mentioned whether the ALP will vote with the government regarding the appalling thought bubble about stripping people of citizenship even if they haven’t been convicted of a crime…Just on Peter Dutton’s whim…

    I’m sorry but I believe the ALP has a responsibility to the country that goes beyond politics and they should be speaking loudly and clearly against these very dangerous ideas that are emerging from the LNP…

    and if the voting public doesn’t listen they should keep talking and explaining until they do…

  18. [davidwh
    Posted Monday, June 1, 2015 at 10:06 pm | PERMALINK
    Anyone interested in a frozen cane toad?
    ]

    David

    You’ve given me some good belly laughs tonight but that’s the best yet. 😆

  19. David, I’ll still send you the large cane toad casserole I made, as long as you promise to share it with your Liberal voting friends …

  20. [Newspoll

    52-48 2PP to Labor

    Primaries: Coalition 41, Labor 37, Greens 13

    Abbott: Satisfied 38, Dissatisfied 53
    Shorten: Satisfied 32, Dissatisfied 50

    Better PM: Abbott 41, Shorten 37

    1169 sample, May 28-31]

    the Oz (and me-to ABC) headlines will focus on:

    [Abbott: Satisfied 38
    Shorten: Dissatisfied 50

    Better PM: Abbott 41, Shorten 37]

    Abbott seems to get marks just for not fucking up spectacularly. Australians must be kind people who like to encourage the not too bright kid when he’s doing better than he was doing.

    abbott needs to rush to a poll before the wheels fall off as we go into recession. he can then hope:
    1. if they win they can govern in the hope the recession ends by 2018/19 and use the recession to push workchoices as hard as they can.
    2. if they lose, labor can get blamed for the unholy mess he and Joe are leaving behind.

    I’d love a pollie to lay the cards on the table and say – we have two choices:
    – increase tax revenue, close tax loopholes for the wealthy and scale back some services and middle class welfare a bit while investing in services and programs that make us a stronger society. We might even tax pollution.
    – not collect any more taxes and slash spending and services and hurt a lot of people already doing it hard and fail to invest in education.

    which will make for a better society?

    I wish labor would put a proper budget response forward showing how a fair but tight budget is better for us in the long run and arguing the case for reforms. e.g “We will maintain Gonski funding by closing superannuation tax concession loopholes created by Costello”. It’d be great to see the options put forward and debated in a ‘we can do A or B – what do people want?’ way.

  21. 52/48. Gee thats really wow. 🙁

    Still, looking like the Libs may be in a spot of bother with the Budget led polling recovery they were looking for. 🙂

    Will get worse for them i think, when the focus goes back onto trying to get the same nasties they had in 2014 through in 2015.

  22. Is this a case on Andrews misleading Parliment?

    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/jun/01/government-sought-no-written-advice-from-department-before-submarine-decision
    ……
    But when pressed by the shadow defence minister, Stephen Conroy, if the government had sought formal written advice from the department, as is the usual protocol for large procurements, Richardson said no.

    “No, not formal written advice,” the secretary said. “I’m not aware of advice being sought in writing.”

  23. So that it folks. No budget bounce.

    There’s a real possibility Australia has already decided the next election.

    Polls not shifting – maybe they won’t shift. All the way to Abbott leading first single term fed government since Scullin

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