BludgerTrack: 51.5-48.5 to Labor

A reasonably good result for the Coalition in a Queensland-only poll from Galaxy makes the only difference worth mentioning to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

The only new national federal poll this week was the usual entry from Essential Research, and as you may have guessed, it’s done next to nothing to alter the reading on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. However, we did get a federal poll of Queensland only for Galaxy, which gave the Coalition an above-par result in the most sensitive state in terms of marginal seats. That’s lifted them a notch on the seat tally, making an incremental contribution to the wearing away of Labor’s lead. Nothing new on leadership ratings this week, so that’s your lot.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,748 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.5-48.5 to Labor”

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  1. Aren’t we due for quarterly growth and unemployment stat releases this week?

    If bad, give them 2 weeks to show up in the polls and boerwars your uncle; June 24 seems plausible.

  2. http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/06/01/us-vietnam-usa-defense-idUSKBN0OH1L120150601

    [U.S. Defense Secretary Ash Carter discussed his call for an end to island-building in the South China Sea in talks on Monday with his Vietnamese counterpart, who said Vietnam had not expanded its islands but had done work to prevent wave erosion.

    The response appeared to fall short of the immediate halt to land reclamation activity and further militarization of the islands that Carter sought in an initial appeal last week in Hawaii, and again at a security conference in Singapore.]

    If ever there was a need to illustrate the absolute futility of the American War in Viet Nam, this picture does it…

  3. [Abbott is an enemy of law, justice and dignity. He should be sacked.]

    Or stripped of his Australian citizenship and packed off back to England!

  4. 2631

    If they wait until the end of August, they have made it easy for Abbott to be prepared to call a DD. The new Senate would be able to run for almost 3 years with the Senate of Doom elected under the current GVT system to make life hard for PM Shorten.

  9. Scoutdog, are you sure that wasn’t Robyn Williams interviewing Lomborg about a week ago. Williams usually let’s people like that hang themselves, rather than tearing them apart.

  11. [roger bottomley

    Posted Monday, June 1, 2015 at 8:39 pm | Permalink

    Boerwar, if Newspoll is 50/50, I fear you will be wrong re Abbott being replaced.]

    I predict that Newspoll will be 53/47 but that support for Abbott will have gone downhill.

    I predict that, for the women (and men) of Australia, this poll will be Abbott’s Tampon Moment.

  12. Re my previous post about the new law, supported by Labor, regarding up to 2 years jail time for doctors reporting abuse at Nauru and Manus Is, the relevant law is “Australian Border Force Act 2015” . I have seen very little coverage of this in the msm. Am so upset that Labor supported this inhumane legislation. Who else can we trust to defend the defenceless!!
    Sorry for the delay in posting the link…still learning to master an IPad,

  15. SK

    My prediction is that the Q3 National Accounts figures will kill any lingering business support for Hockey and Abbott.

    Business people may be depressed. But they are not suicidal.

  16. [I predict that, for the women (and men) of Australia, this poll will be Abbott’s Tampon Moment.]

    He could give a knighthood to Prince Charles as a parting gesture (and a Damehood to Mrs Prince Charles).

  17. Things do seem to be getting a little tetchy in the coalition partyroom.

    [With MPs and ministers fearing another conflagration at last night’s cabinet meeting, at least one third of the cabinet remains vehemently opposed to enabling Immigration Minister Peter Dutton to unilaterally strip people of their citizenship and render them stateless.

    At the same time, 40 of the 59 Coalition backbenchers co-signed a letter handed to Tony Abbott on Monday as a gesture of support against the cabinet opposition.

    Two of the six cabinet ministers known to be opposed on the basis of legal principle are Malcolm Turnbull and Julie Bishop, both leadership contenders during the February troubles.

    Friends of Mr Turnbull are accusing the Prime Minister or his office of peddling the leak about the cabinet split to make Mr Turnbull look “soft on terrorism” while those on the other side the argument believe Mr Abbott is being undermined.]
    http://www.afr.com/news/politics/coalition-split-widens-as-scott-morrison-pushes-terror-compromise-20150601-ghdrd5

  19. Vale Joan Kirner

    I remember her as a good Premier when not moonlighting as a rock star.

    @DanielAndrewsMP: Farewell to our great friend, Joan. She was our first female Premier. Because of her work, she won’t be the last. http://t.co/lQrrplwOT0

  21. [2653
    confessions

    Abbott is an enemy of law, justice and dignity. He should be sacked.

    Or stripped of his Australian citizenship and packed off back to England!]

    These propositions around citizenship are terrible. They are a direct challenge to the principle of equality before the law. The LNP have been able to exempt the forcible detention and violent treatment of refugees from usual legal processes. They now propose to do this with others they can classify as public enemies.

    This has nothing to do with public safety or order. It is about political advantage – about the acquisition and exercise of State power – and about exemplary, extra-legal punishment. It is about trophy-taking and the legal annihilation of civil rights.

    The LNP are proto-fascist. They must be resisted.

  22. [Scoutdog, are you sure that wasn’t Robyn Williams interviewing Lomborg about a week ago. Williams usually let’s people like that hang themselves, rather than tearing them apart.]

    Not sure nappin might have been but he did seem to be in furious agreement with who he was interviewing, maybe I interpreted it the wrong way

  23. And the amount of detailed comments provided to Phil Coorey as well just adds to the perception of knives being out.

  24. BW,

    The disconnect between what is happening on the ground, what the Liberal Government is doing and how it is being reported is quite breath taking.

    If the Libs were to change Leader tomorrow, who would mourn Abbotts passing? Absolutely no one and that includes his own rusted on partisans.

  26. briefly

    Look no further for a character assessment of the LNP than today’s dissent motion in the Speaker. I agreed with every word Mr Burke said.

    In the theatre that is QT that is normally far from the case.

  28. briefly:

    Morrison apparently said the proposed laws were no different to removing the right to vote from prisoners while incarcerated. He really has no clue.

  31. Greensborough Growler

    [If the Libs were to change Leader tomorrow, who would mourn Abbotts passing? ]
    If that happened their would be a deafening wailing noise from the nation’s cartoonists.

  32. 2666

    Prince Charles was made a Knight of the Order of Australia (AK) in 1981. This was mentioned when his father was given one earlier this year.

  33. Erasmus

    That is truly disgraceful.

    It’s very poor that Labor supported it and only the Greens opposed it.

    I’m not sure if the relevant Whistleblowers Acts would provide protection; if they don’t I don’t think a doctor should agree to work for the Department of Immigration in detention centres.

  36. Dee,

    Yeah, it is a fun way to spend a day.

    Not a bucket list kind of thing. But certainly a different way to entertain you and your family on a day out.

  38. [Dee

    Posted Monday, June 1, 2015 at 9:02 pm | Permalink

    Have any PBers been on the Otway Fly?]

    No, but I am definitely interested. Does it work better than the Spanish Fly?

  39. 2682

    Then there’s nothing left but to make him the foundation member of the Order of the Tampon (plust 10% GST).

  40. I felt that Newspoll overstated Labor’s 2pp last time and taking that into account, plus all the focus there has been on terrorism and national security since the last one I wouldn’t be totally surprised if the 49/51 was right. In any event I expect a further shift towards the Libs and I think all this talk about Abbott being rolled is just wishful thinking.

    That said I’ll be very pleased if this is one prediction that I get totally wrong.

  41. [If that happened their would be a deafening wailing noise from the nation’s cartoonists.]

    Gerard Henderson would perhaps shed a tear, before going on to blame the ABC.

  42. Erasmus,
    [I have seen very little coverage of this in the msm.]
    There has been some coverage. Here are two examples….

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-05-28/barns-newhouse-detention-centre-secrecy-just-got-even-worse/6501086
    [The Australian Border Force Act, supported by the ALP and opposed only by the Greens, effectively turns the Department of Immigration into a secret security organisation with police powers. Although the Act seems to be directed at Customs operations, it also seeks to regulate and control access to information about asylum seekers in immigration detention.

    Under the Act, it is a criminal offence, punishable by imprisonment of up to two years, for any person working directly or indirectly for the Department of Immigration and Border Protection to reveal to the media or any other person or organisation (the only exceptions being the Immigration Department and other Commonwealth agencies, police, coroners) anything that happens in detention centres like Nauru and Manus Island.

    The Border Force Act goes much further than any other Commonwealth, state or territory legislation in seeking to reduce scrutiny of government actions in a detention setting. This legislation is antithetical to a society that professes to be a liberal democracy where independent scrutiny of, and protection for those who lift the veil on human rights abuses ought be the norm.]

    http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2015/05/30/doctors-oppose-anti-whistleblower-law
    [Doctors are set to ramp up their campaign against federal legislation that prevents them from blowing the whistle on atrocities in detention centres.

    Outraged doctors unanimously passed two motions at the Australian Medical Association’s national conference on Saturday calling on its policy-making federal council to push for changes to the government’s policy of detaining children.

    They also want the government to amend legislation that prevents them from speaking out about failures in detention centre health care.]

  44. GG

    Thanks!

    Travelling down to Vic to do the whole family ‘thing’ then intending on having a real holiday.

    I’m going the fly solo unless they can hoist OH and wheelchair up. 😆

  47. Dee@2694

    GG

    Thanks!

    Travelling down to Vic to do the whole family ‘thing’ then intending on having a real holiday.

    I’m going the fly solo unless they can hoist OH and wheelchair up.

    I don’t recall any facilities for wheelchairs.

  49. Dee,

    I assume you have been to the website and maybe emailed off some questions?

    A few years since I was there and things could have changed.

    There was a kind of a wildlife thing there where you could handle the animals. Great for kids, even those my age. 😉 Very friendly little Olive Python and some kind of a bird which just didn’t want to leave me.

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