BludgerTrack: 51.5-48.5 to Labor

A reasonably good result for the Coalition in a Queensland-only poll from Galaxy makes the only difference worth mentioning to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

The only new national federal poll this week was the usual entry from Essential Research, and as you may have guessed, it’s done next to nothing to alter the reading on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. However, we did get a federal poll of Queensland only for Galaxy, which gave the Coalition an above-par result in the most sensitive state in terms of marginal seats. That’s lifted them a notch on the seat tally, making an incremental contribution to the wearing away of Labor’s lead. Nothing new on leadership ratings this week, so that’s your lot.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,748 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.5-48.5 to Labor”

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  1. 1
    shellbell

    Yup…and the use of wire fraud and money laundering provisions…very easy to prove, heavy penalties…extra-territorial reach…metadata doubtless very useful 🙂

  2. Morning all. Yes Shellbell and briefly, as the recent Libor and now FIFA cases prove, the USA is very good at prosecuting financial crimes as long as they were NOT committed by Americans 🙂

  3. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Vale FIFA! Ole!
    http://www.smh.com.au/sport/soccer/fifa-corruption-2018-2022-world-cup-bids-targeted-in-swiss-probe-20150527-ghb3zd.html
    It’s huge!
    http://www.theguardian.com/football/2015/may/27/fifa-officials-world-cup-fraud-us-prosecutors
    And Nike may be drawn into the scandal.
    http://www.businessspectator.com.au/news/2015/5/28/advertising-and-marketing/nike-drawn-fifa-corruption-scandal
    Abbott and Hockey are at odds over NATSEM’s economic modelling methodology.
    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/may/27/abbott-and-hockey-at-odds-over-labors-economic-modelling-of-budget-impacts
    ICAC fights back and refers Margaret Cunneen to the DPP.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/margaret-cunneen-icac-refers-prosecutor-to-dpp-20150527-ghb1kd
    Another slap from the courts for Morrison/Dutton.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/court-orders-immigration-to-compensate-lawyers-over-blocked-camp-access-20150527-ghap96.html
    Shorten’s SSM bill forces Abbott’s hand.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbott-points-way-for-samesex-marriage-reform-20150527-ghaz2r.html
    Michelle Grattan says that Shorten’s SSM bill has flushed Abbott out.
    https://theconversation.com/gay-marriage-heading-to-cross-party-bill-42431
    Tony Wright on Ridsdale’s chilling testimony.
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/gerald-ridsdale-portrait-of-a-monster-as-a-forgetful-old-man-20150527-ghaz4w.html
    Was Barnaby’s Depp dog outburst a warning shot to the US over biosecurity and the TPP?
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/money/2015/05/27/barnaby-joyce-depp-was-really-about/

  4. Section 2 . . .

    The Independent Australia exposes Lomborg over his phalanx of Nobel Laureates.
    https://independentaustralia.net/environment/environment-display/bjorn-lomborgs-seven-nobel-laureates-not-all-what-they-seem–or-even-alive-,7763
    It looks more and more like Monis was simply a psychotic.
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/may/27/sydney-siege-gunman-may-have-been-suffering-psychosis-inquest-told
    Woolworths suffers growing pains and looks like having a purge at the top.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/comment-and-analysis/woolworths-board-readies-axe-but-own-necks-also-on-block-20150527-ghau6y.html
    The PR disaster that was Mick Matlthouse’s departure.
    http://www.theguardian.com/sport/blog/2015/may/26/mick-malthouse-sacking-disaster-public-relations
    Tony Abbott – a question of incompetence.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/tony-abbott-a-question-of-incompetence,7760
    This researcher says Abbott’s citizenship stuff is pointless and absurd.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/revoking-citizenship-is-pointless-and-absurd-20150527-ghaof7.html
    The 41 worst things the Liberals did yesterday
    http://www.ellistabletalk.com/2015/05/27/the-forty-one-worst-things-the-liberals-did-yesterday-262/
    A lot of senior people in Immigration have jumped ship. Many found it impossible to work there under the current direction.
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/public-service/new-wave-of-refugees-set-sail-from-immigration-20150527-ghapyj.html
    And “View from the Street” has a good crack at it too.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/view-from-the-street/view-from-the-street-have-you-made-your-citizenship-pledge-today-20150527-ghavl4.html

  5. Thanks BK. I was confused by the Abbott citizenship headline. I would have thought establishing if and when Tony Abbott renounced hid British citizenship was not absurd, and highly relevant to whether he should be an Australian PM and Minister? 🙂

    Alos I see QandA is still not right wing enough for LNP tastes. Dont blame the umpire if you cannot win a debate, I say.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/everyone-from-coalition-thinks-abcs-qa-is-biased-to-the-left-says-lnp-senator-james-mcgrath-20150527-ghatyw.html

    Have a good day all.

  6. NewsPoll demonstrates its Murdoch roots on exit

    [Probably the only thing worse than being told you’ve been made redundant is to read it first in the Australian. This is what happened to workers at Newspoll, the Murdoch-owned opinion polling company, this month.

    To add insult to injury, the article said there would be “some redundancies among the 26 staff”. In fact, around 150 people will lose their jobs. If management have their way, most of them will get nothing.

    Red Flag spoke to Kieran Adair, who has worked at Newspoll’s Sydney office for 18 months. “They relied on our work to make Newspoll profits. The moment they no longer needed us, they were happy to kick us to the kerb without a second thought.”

    Fortunately, almost all the workers are in the union. The National Union of Workers (NUW) arranged to meet with NewsCorp executives and the Newspoll manager. When 30 union members turned up at the meeting, the company tried to back out. It backfired. Management were instead forced to listen to a room full of angry workers.

    Kieran summed up the workers’ feeling: “People are furious that we’ve been disrespected. We’ve been deprived of quite basic rights that any worker should have, and we’re not going to take it”.

    The workers want personal references, a redundancy payout for all, a correction to be issued in the Australian and an extra hour of union meeting time.

    The demand for dignity and respect is indicated in the demand for personal references. All management is offering is a “statement of service”, as if the workers are machines whose period of use should be noted.]

    https://redflag.org.au/article/newspoll-workers-respond-redundancy-news

  7. There is a lot of concealed angst in this article. Obviously people working at the head of Immigration had more heart than we gave them credit for and the new guns and borders style has sent them to ‘seek asylum’ in the Health Dept.

    This report confirms how useful Senate Estimates are (I never doubted it) in pulling the wool away from our eyes.

    [Among about 11 senior executive jumping ship between the middle and the the end of May is understood to be the key defection of chief information officer Matt Yannopolous, the man who had been given the huge job of combining Immigration’s systems with those of its new merger partner Customs.

    Departmental Secretary Michael Pezzullo told Senate Estimates this week that departing executives had told him they simply did not fit in with Immigration’s new direction under the Abbott government.
    . . .
    Sources close to the portfolio confirmed that Mr Yannopolous was among a group of assistant secretaries and first assistant secretaries who would set sail from Immigration in the coming days, with five of them understood to have been offered asylum under their old boss Martin Bowles at the Health Department.
    . . .
    In front of Senate Estimates on Tuesday, Mr Pezullo stated that some of his departing executives did not want to work in the department any more.

    “Some people might have decided, for their own reasons – perhaps their own personal values – that they might not feel comfortable working at an agency that, for instance, has a border force component that will be armed,” he told the cross-party committee .

    Mr Pezzullo said that a number of his veteran senior bureaucrats had told him during “very sensitive” discussions that the Immigration Department they had joined was different to the one that was emerging under the reform now under way and that it was time for them to go.]

    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/public-service/new-wave-of-refugees-set-sail-from-immigration-20150527-ghapyj.html

  8. Crikey! Boo!

    The comment box said I was logged in as lizzie, but wouldn’t let me post. Sudddenly it seems to have a memory failure, just like zoomster had. I got in here by going back through the front Crikey page. Crikey, you have problems.

  9. Chuckle.

    Nat MP at The Doors asked if there’s any benefit for drought striken farmers in the depreciation write off, given that they have no income.

    His answer was that not all farmers are doing it tough!

    So the farmers who are doing OK get a benefit, those in dire straits don’t — but the Coalition will continue to spruik the benefits as if they help those in drought.

  10. Good Morning

    Regarding media reporting on SSM.

    Remember Murdoch likes to be on the winning side. Look how positive his papers are on the issue.

    Also remember the MSM knows that gay people will not let the issue go. The gay media publications will be following and reporting the debate and resolution.

    That includes publications like Pinknews in the UK and The Advocate and the gay section of the Huffington Post in the US.

    Of course its likely that mainstream international organisations like the BBC will follow it as well.

    So I do think this is an issue where Labor will not suffer the MSM filer on an issue it is advocating.

  11. Given what a nasty place the Dept of Immigration was to deal with in the past, with some of the least helpful and most aggressive staff I’ve ever had to deal with in the public service, things must be really ghastly for people to walk.

  12. Xenophon having a minor breakdown at The Doors dealing with ‘the tampon tax’. Interesting how uncomfortable men are when dealing with this issue!

  13. lizzie

    They may spin but its a rolling of Abbott on the issue. Not the first one. The questions on leadership will get sharper as a result.

  14. Morning all.

    On FIFA:

    [In the end, it only took a $150 million scandal to make Americans care about soccer.

    FIFA, the notoriously corrupt and yet seemingly invincible governing body of world soccer, has finally landed itself an indictment that some would say is worthy of its reputation. The charges against a handful of senior FIFA officials include money laundering, racketeering, bribery and fraud. In short, the federal lawsuit alleges what millions of soccer fans have suspected all along: that FIFA officials have been using the organization’s massive influence to line their pocketbooks.

    On the surface, it’s just another white collar crime story: rich, powerful men making themselves richer and more powerful. But a closer look suggests that there is a lot of real-world suffering and misery happening as a direct result of FIFA executive malfeasance.]
    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2015/05/27/a-body-count-in-qatar-illustrates-the-consequences-of-fifa-corruption/

    Contains a shocking World Cup death toll infographic in the article as well.

  15. confessions

    He will fail. When you have Andrew Bolt and Alan Jones saying the time has come even Abbott cannot buck public opinion.

    Its a loss of his media cover.

    I do agree that is what he is trying.

  16. Interesting that the FIFA case is run out of the U.S.

    They deal with corporate crooks quick smart.

    In Australia our regulators woukd investigate for a couple more years and the make a secret deal with the offenders .

  17. rossmcg@30

    Interesting that the FIFA case is run out of the U.S.

    They deal with corporate crooks quick smart.

    Yes – by not prosecuting them – particularly, especially if they are (senior) banksters. Just recently the US declined to prosecute CitiBank on LIBOR corruption.

    How many Banksters were prosecuted regarding the GFC ?

    Only a few small fry.

  18. Z@22

    Depends..some of us come from an era when such matters were unmentionable.

    Curious teenager me to girlfriend’s mother about why said girlfriend could not come for a swim was told that it was “inconvenient”.

    In them days children – that is those under 16 – were not allowed in the maternity ward of our local hospital.

    Products bought in our local store were all wrapped in brown paper and kept right on the top shelf for such purposes.

    All this stuff was cloaked in secrecy.

    My OT is often offended today by what she sees in some of the ads on TV for female hygiene products.

    So, in answer to your question, yes, some men – and some women – find it difficult to deal glibly with the topic.

    I am still shocked – and I know I should have passed this long ago …when I hear a woman use “f…u$##c%$..

    Just trapped in my BB era I guess.

  19. [The bizarre media appearance occurred on Thursday evening when Sky News journalist James O’Doherty and the ABC journalist Matt Doran attempted to “doorstop” Mr Hockey as he was leaving the Radio National studios in the Parliament House press gallery.

    When Doran attempted a “quick [question] on the GST”, Mr Hockey deflected and focused on the journalist’s appearance.

    “God you guys, look how young you are, are you eighteen?” Mr Hockey asked.

    “Both of you? Are you? Seriously? Get a look at his face, look at this, look at this,” Mr Hockey said, urging the cameras to focus on Doran’s face.

    “I’m 24,” Doran responded.

    “Are you? I was about to ask [for] your ID,” Mr Hockey said.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/is-this-joe-hockeys-kevin-rudd-moment-treasurer-ridicules-male-journalists-20150527-ghb8uc.html

  20. [“Dear Liberal trolls…

    The confirmed HOR votes for SSM are:

    Labor – 45
    Liberal – 5
    Greens/Other – 3

    Remind me again who the problem is here, especially given the LNP have the majority vote on the floor of the house?”]

    Who is the Problem?

    You mean like… Democracy is the Problem?

    If you lefties don’t like the will of the Australian Parliament perhaps you should call for a Plebescite to let the Australian people decide… like I have.

    Lets put this Gay Marriage thing to bed once and for all.

  21. Tricot

    I try very hard not to react to some things which used to be considered private, but are now spread all over the media.

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