BludgerTrack: 51.5-48.5 to Labor

A reasonably good result for the Coalition in a Queensland-only poll from Galaxy makes the only difference worth mentioning to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

The only new national federal poll this week was the usual entry from Essential Research, and as you may have guessed, it’s done next to nothing to alter the reading on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. However, we did get a federal poll of Queensland only for Galaxy, which gave the Coalition an above-par result in the most sensitive state in terms of marginal seats. That’s lifted them a notch on the seat tally, making an incremental contribution to the wearing away of Labor’s lead. Nothing new on leadership ratings this week, so that’s your lot.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,748 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.5-48.5 to Labor”

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  8. [Because the concept of a parliament is too difficult for conservatives?]

    Playing for time and desperately looking for an angle to turn the whole thing to shit.

  9. The Parliament will reject Gay Marriage.

    Plebiscite Time and let the will of the people decide… time to give the Australian people a conscious vote.

  11. Lizzie@46

    I think it is called ‘moving with the times’. I constantly ask myself “Is it me, or is it them?”

    You know the old saying I guess: “Everyone in the world is mad, except me and thee. But I often wonder about thee?”

    PB is very good for sorting this kind of stuff out.

  12. TBA

    [ The Parliament will reject Gay Marriage. ]

    Not if they are allowed a free vote. Which is of course what you are terrified of.

  14. [The Parliament will reject Gay Marriage.]

    I think if that happens it is excellent for Labor and the Greens. It would be wonderful to see Tony personally dragging intelligent liberals back to vote with the fools from the dark ages. I don’t think fools like our PM realise quite how far of centre they are with their 1950’s mindset.

    I enjoyed the Weekly last night. I do wish it had a full hour and a few more writers it is a most enjoyable show that shows flashes of brilliance but just needs a little bit more.

    [Plebiscite Time and let the will of the people decide… time to give the Australian people a conscious vote.]

    This is just a ridiculous, very expensive, irresponsible, delaying tactic for those still mentally in the 1950’s.

  15. BK

    That brings back memories of when I did a complete review of an organisation and produced a list of potential actions which would revitalise and modernise it. Last on the list was the recommendation that they take credit cards for purchases (this was a long time ago). The committee read it all through, nodded sagely and accepted the credit card recommendation. Nothing else ever happened.

  16. As a party which was supposed to be able to govern at the drop of a hat, when in opposition 2 years ago, the LNP has been badly caught short on the SSM issue.

    As one of BK’s extracts mentioned this morning, “Abbott had been flushed out on the issue.”

    There is furious duck paddling under the water to make it look as though the conservatives are in tune with it all – hence the calls for “let’s all work on this together” from them, including their faithful echo chamber here.

    I guess it is tough being a populous weather vane as you have to be smart in picking up changes in wind direction.

    Abbott can’t even do this simple task.

  18. Can’t stress this enough. Unlike Ireland where a referendum helps, or in Switzerland where the people can petition for a change of laws through referenda, a plebiscite in Australia is useless.

    We elected these people to represent us, so they should vote on our behalf on the ammendment of the law.

  19. Tricot

    Funnily enough, I have always tended to be rebellious and ahead of the pack. But the pack is now rushing off in directions I am not comfortable with. Swings and roundabouts, I expect.

  20. Yep, a “conscious” vote is sure what we need from the government as they were certainly asleep at the wheel on this issue.

    If the government was smart, they would actually deal with SSM in an efficient and timely manner – that is, get on with it.

    However, they want it both ways…control an agenda which is now out of their hands, accuse the opposition of playing politics and pretend, at some future point, it will come back to the issue.

    I think reactionary and conservative are synonymous on this occasion when applied to the LNP.

    Take the bunting and death cult stuff away from Abbott and there is a naked politician there for all to see.

    I counted 6 Oz flags at his last public outing. I see he is still in his childish blue tie mode, though I do note as more Morgan’s Pomade is daubed on, the ties get a slightly lighter blue hue.

    And before anyone gets stuck in about me talking about Abbott’s appearance as something that matters, does anyone really believe that when he dresses he does not think of the impact of his appearance? If it is good enough for pollies to try to dress to impress, then they are fair game for comment.

    I noticed a report that Hockey commented on the age of some young reporter today – in public – saying he looked too young to do the job. I guess we could respond that Hockey, for some, looks too stupid to be the Treasurer.

  21. [As one of BK’s extracts mentioned this morning, “Abbott had been flushed out on the issue.”]

    To be fair Ireland flushed out both Labor and Liberal as being ridiculously out of touch on this issue. Labor noticed it had been flushed out and acted, the Liberals are trying to pull the tide back and hide. Shorten must force the vote, and then again and again, and take it to the election. It would be nice if a couple of Labor Senators were not on the ticket at the next election. Perhaps they could breakaway.

    Are lefties too intelligent and important to work in shops, I don’t understand how (other than corruption) the lefties couldn’t take over the SDA in a flash.

  22. Tricot

    Hockey has forgotten that when policemen (and journalists) look too young for the job, it means that he is the one getting old.

  23. Why is the left shit scared of holding a Plebiscite on Gay Marriage?

    For a group that claim it has wide ranging support from the Australian public it should be a cake walk.

    Just reinforces my view those on the left are undemocratic

  25. Holding a Plebiscite does a number of things:

    1. Brings legitimacy to Gay Marriage legislation – In Ireland we even saw the opponents after the vote congratulate the Yes Vote for winning

    2. Lets the Australian public decide once and for all to put an end to the debate

    3. Allow both sides to put their arguments to the Australian people

  26. “@Kate_McClymont: Prosecutor Margaret Cunneen SC has stepped down from the murder trial this morning following the referral of her #ICAC evidence to the DPP”

  28. TBA/73

    You are now using Gay marriage to try and wedge the so called “left”.

    I can see their petty shitty games TBA.

    Don’t try and fool people.

  29. [Why is the left shit scared of holding a Plebiscite on Gay Marriage?]

    Not scared TBA, it costs a lot, wastes a lot of time and gives idiots like you a lot of time to say really stupid deliberately untrue things in the name of ‘debate’.

    All those stupid adds for both sides would be unbearable. The churches (if ever they were really in the game with an actual argument) lost this debate with civil unions between hetros. If a civil union between hetros is a marriage a civil union between everyone should be a marriage.

    To be consistent to, I’ve never been the biggest fan of the debate over the word, I don’t want to hear for weeks how unfair it is that a word means something and it should mean another thing. It is an annoying tiresome debate for fools with nothing more important to argue about.

  31. [“TBA

    Why are you scared of parliamentary democracy?”]

    I’m not scared of parliamentary democracy, they are going to vote down Gay Marriage in Parliament.

    The ironic thing is I’m a fence sitter on the subject but the holier than thou left seem absolutely terrified at the prospect of a popular vote being held despite using it as one of the reasons it should be passed.

  32. [I’m not scared of parliamentary democracy, they are going to vote down Gay Marriage in Parliament.]

    they shouldn’t and they are idiots if they do. then we kick their useless lying bums out of office next election. it has been this way for centuries don’t’ try and change in now with your new lefty referendum idea.

  33. Actually, some of the left do hold the view that a referendum/plebiscite should take place, but again it is non-binding and a waste of money.

    I’m pretty sure a plebiscite will find the public in favour of it judging by polls, but what’s the point of having a plebiscite to repeat what the polls say?

  34. TBA

    Unlike you. The so called holier than thou left recognises that Parliament is where the fate is to be decided.

    Thats it. No matter how much you try and say otherwise this is the fact.

    Keep ignoring this fact and your stupidity will see you go the way of truthie before you.

  37. [“I’m pretty sure a plebiscite will find the public in favour of it judging by polls, but what’s the point of having a plebiscite to repeat what the polls say?”]

    Because polls are not accurate and a Plebiscite is?

    If the left want Gay Marriage to be taken legitimately they should be the ones front and centre demanding a Plebescite. The fact that they aren’t makes me think they are worried about the true feelings of Australians.

  39. @TBA/81

    Using language like “shit” and the so called “holier than thou” type of language, demonstration that you are very afraid.

    A vote in Parliament is not a vote by the people.

  40. “@AustralianLabor: I and many Australians believe that the time is right for marriage equality in Australia. http://t.co/i3d2yEKSeQ @billshortenmp #auspol”

    “@political_alert: The Greens will hold a press conference at 11.45am here at Parliament to discuss the progress of cross party support on #marriageequality.”

  41. [If the left want Gay Marriage to be taken legitimately they should be the ones front and centre demanding a Plebescite]

    You are hilarious TBA, gay marriage is taken seriously and legitimately all over the world. That is the ship has sailed. The war is over. The opposition to gay marriage is post Ireland not taken seriously it is a laughing stock.

    a plebiscite would just make us look stupid because it is a debate about a debate that is over and it doesn’t actually achieve anything.

    if Tony introduced a mechanism for citizen initiated referendum to be binding then I’m sure we’d have one pretty damn soon and it would be meaningful. would Tony want that?

  43. TBA can whine all he likes.

    The reality is Labor is still bringing the vote on in parliament on Monday.

    The LNP does not have much time left to decide Free vote or no Free vote that is the LNP question.

  44. guytaur

    One journo went down the “Where’s the money coming from?” road re: NDIS and Shorten jumped on it beautifully, wtte, “We’re already spending millions, let’s spend it more productively.”

  46. lizzzie

    Yes. It was his response on NDIS that I thought was classy. The ME answers were common sense and showing backbone.

  49. WeWantPaul@64


    This is just a ridiculous, very expensive, irresponsible, delaying tactic for those still mentally in the 1950′s.

    Might be a broader aim here for the cons in arguing for it in this case. Allow this issue to go to a plebiscite/referendum, and that could be used to justify also demanding them for issues like the death penalty, gun control, and abortion.

    Which would allow the cons to indulge in what they do best: whipping the public into an irrational amygdala-driven lather over it.

  50. crikey cut my 95 post

    An e.g. of culture change where a chilfrens author can talk about book characters getting married in Ireland

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