BludgerTrack: 51.5-48.5 to Labor

A reasonably good result for the Coalition in a Queensland-only poll from Galaxy makes the only difference worth mentioning to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

The only new national federal poll this week was the usual entry from Essential Research, and as you may have guessed, it’s done next to nothing to alter the reading on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. However, we did get a federal poll of Queensland only for Galaxy, which gave the Coalition an above-par result in the most sensitive state in terms of marginal seats. That’s lifted them a notch on the seat tally, making an incremental contribution to the wearing away of Labor’s lead. Nothing new on leadership ratings this week, so that’s your lot.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,748 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.5-48.5 to Labor”

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  2. This may explain Abbott’s comment about Pell being ‘the first’.

    [Whether you conceive of the Cardinal as the Great Satan or a priest ahead of his time in dealing with child abuse (a view that is still prevalent among Catholics)
    …
    Nor is it even that expensive: $4.3bn over 10 years, with $2.4bn of that to be provided by the churches, schools and other private organisations. That will deliver justice for 65,000 victims, resolve the historical backlog and prepare us to deal justly with future claims. Chump change for a world-best child abuse scheme and a clear conscience. And such a scheme would accommodate hundreds of millions in compensation for victims of institutions that no longer exist and therefore no longer have the ability to pay.

    Sounds great. Except, that is, to the federal government and the governments of many of the states and territories. In their submission to the commission, the federal government refused to withhold judgment until the commission’s report on redress, saying in no uncertain terms that they will not support such a scheme. The message to victims? Go back to court and get your compensation out of the organisations responsible for failing you in the first place.]

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jun/01/the-government-is-a-bigger-obstacle-to-justice-for-victims-than-george-pell

  3. Bolt was born in Adelaide making him Australian.

    Interestingly his sister is a lesbian and is married in Canada.

    So Bolt, Katter and Abbott all have gay siblings.

  5. Diogs,

    What’s in the water over there in Adelaide. Bernardi saying some quite intelligent things regarding stripping of citizenship matters today.

  6. One you BK 🙂

    [West Virginia man sues education officials for teaching his daughter ‘religion’ of evolution

    A man in West Virginia is suing education officials for teaching his daughter about evolution, claiming it represents “the propagation of religious faith” and will prevent her from achieving her goal of becoming a vet.]
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/west-virginia-man-sues-education-officials-for-teaching-his-daughter-religion-of-evolution-10287709.html

  17. William Bowe@2515

    Tim Watts @TimWattsMP
    Terrible news that Joan Kirner has passed away. She fought my preselection hard – then offered me endless support, advice & cups of tea.

    I won’t pretend I was ever a fan of Joan Kirner, but this is indeed sad news as she was not all that old and she was prepared to pick up the bat when her male colleagues weren’t.

    Vale Joan.

  18. Bernardi is probably worried that laws allowing the citizenship stripping could be used against his fellow RWNJs by a future Labor government.

  19. [What’s in the water over there in Adelaide. Bernardi saying some quite intelligent things regarding stripping of citizenship matters today.]

    I think Cory is from the small government with restricted powers school. I agreed with him as well which was pretty rare. I think it’s a terrible step to allow a minister or delegate to strip an Australian citizen of their papers and make them stateless without a court.

    It’s what that moron McClelland wanted to do to Assange.

  21. Morgan
    COAL 41 [-.5]
    ALP 37 [+.5]
    Greens 13 [+1.5]
    PUP 1 [-.5]
    Others 6.5 [-1.5]

    +2 to ALP on 2PP

    So, Newspoll eh?
    Its a ‘wow’ a[[arently.
    Taking that seriously then I would expect it to vary significantly from last time which was 53:47.
    52/3/4 would be, essentially ‘steady as she goes’ and not worthy of a ‘wow”.
    So, if I take the ‘wow’ as meaning a big change then I take Newspoll to be either 50/51 or 54/55 to ALP. Or even more divergent.
    Which direction of variation is likely?

  22. This ludicrously exercise in moral equivalence shows exactly what is wrong with political journalism today:

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/tony-abbott-and-bill-shorten-both-playing-politics-on-samesex-marriage-20150601-ghe2e3.html

    I note in particular this piece of pontificating that was actually highlighted by the subeditor:

    [If Shorten’s motives are aimed solely at achieving social justice, he must afford a reluctant and socially conservative governing party the space it needs.]

    So after three years of relentless negative oppositionism under Abbott, where he was hailed as the greatest opposition leader in history for the sheer unremitting bloody-mindedness of his opposition, the current opposition leader is lectured to by the pontificating Mr Kenny on the need to give the government some space.

    This coming after Julia Gillard became a universal piñata from every direction for having the same position as Abbott personally, but supporting the right of every body in Parliament to be free to express their own position on the subject.

    FFS, they have had years of space and they’ve sat on their hands with their heads up their collectives arses for all that time. There is a bill from everyone except the Government and there is not even a timetable to consider whether to have a bill sponsored by anyone on the government side.

    What is it about Tony Abbott that the most aggressive, thuggish brutal Prime Minister we have ever had draws plaintiff pleas that we all dance so gently around the man’s feelings, so that he doesn’t get embarrassed by his own deliberate obstruction being bypassed by history?

  23. [HUNDREDS of unused pink prison uniforms and material intended to embarrass bikies in Queensland jails will be sold for breast cancer research.

    MORE than 550 shirts and more than 300 metres of material from the previous Liberal National Party’s program of making bikie inmates wear hot pink will help fund the National Breast Cancer Foundation.

    Corrective Services Minister Jo-Ann Millar says only 27 convicts ever wore the “ridiculous” fuchsia garb, despite the previous government spending more than $10,000 on it.]

    v

  24. TPOF @ 2522

    That article pissed me off too. How can you possibly compare trying to give a section of the community rights which they previously did not have to using the specter of terrorism to try and scare the public into compliance?

  26. [HUNDREDS of unused pink prison uniforms and material intended to embarrass bikies in Queensland jails will be sold for breast cancer research.

    MORE than 550 shirts and more than 300 metres of material from the previous Liberal National Party’s program of making bikie inmates wear hot pink will help fund the National Breast Cancer Foundation.]

    Arguably the most useful thing the NEwman govt has achieved!

  27. I once shared a bedroom with Joan!

    She was a truly wonderful woman, always supportive and full of good advice.

  28. @William/2515

    No mention of ?

    ABC News 24 ‏@ABCNews24 7m7 minutes ago

    #BREAKING: Former Victorian Labor Premier Joan Kirner has died, aged 76.

  29. confessions

    Because that is what their employers want. It’s as simple as that. How long would a journo last in the Rupertarium slagging off Tones ?

  31. [Morrison is nobody’s fool.

    He is, however, IMHO, ambitious, arrogant, ruthless, vicious and heartless.]

    In other words, a high-functioning sociopath. I feel that Morrison of all the members of this government would be most at home as an officer in the Nazi SS – bearing in mind that many members of the SS were not five-horned demons but, rather, ambitious and ruthless people who took the opportunity offered by Hitler to climb the heights of power as long as they could suppress normal feelings of humanity in the process.

  32. William

    While you are here can I ask you if there is anything you can do about having the faulty preview button fixed?

    It’s obvious now that it’s not just me. I thought for a while it might have been, but most people who like to use it for proof reading seem to be having trouble with it.

  33. [While you are here can I ask you if there is anything you can do about having the faulty preview button fixed?]

    Hmm. Works for me. The answer to this or any question like it is that a complete redesign of the site is in the works, so I don’t think there’s much chance of the powers that be devoting energy to patching up what’s already there, unless it’s mission-critical.

  34. Darn@2532

    William

    While you are here can I ask you if there is anything you can do about having the faulty preview button fixed?

    It’s obvious now that it’s not just me. I thought for a while it might have been, but most people who like to use it for proof reading seem to be having trouble with it.

    Do you use cccp?
    I do and Preview, and all other functions, are working perfectly.

  36. Sick, sick, sick….

    Times like these I err on the side of execution.

    There is a warning attached to the article.

    [An Australian man will face a Philippines court tomorrow to enter a plea on paedophilia charges described by authorities there as “depraved”.

    Peter Scully allegedly ran an international paedophile ring from Mindanao in the Southern Philippines that raped, tortured and murdered children.

    One victim was only 18 months old.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-06-01/australian-man-to-face-child-sex-abuse-charges-in-philippines/6511954

  38. Joan Kirner was what I’d call a typical Labor lady. No puffed up sense of her own importance. Good speaker, too. I’m glad I met you, Joan.

  41. Kevin Andrews says Australian military aircraft will fly over disputed waters in the South China Sea.

    Hopefully our Kev will fly with them on each mission …

  43. [I feel that Morrison of all the members of this government would be most at home as an officer in the Nazi SS]

    He’s easily the worst, worse than Abbott & twice as scary because he can walk & talk.

  47. Thanks for that response William.

    Bemused

    I’m not very savvy when it comes to some of these things. Can you please explain to me what cccp is?

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