April 30, 2015
With only a week left to go, I’m bumping this thread back up the batting order. If you’re a Crikey subscriber, here are my thoughts on the subject of Britain’s need for electoral reform.
April 14, 2015
A thread for discussion of Britain’s May 7 general election, about which I’m sure I’ll find something to say in due course. In the meantime, here is a poll aggregation from Wikipedia.
My predictions: SNP to sweep Scotland, combination of Plaid Cymru in Wales and the usual suspects in Northern Ireland will essentially lock the traditional parties (Tories, Labour, LibDem) and UKIP into England only.
Labour to form government with supply and confidence agreement with the SNP on the condition that Scotland gets the devo-max promised during the independence referendum. If Labour promises it and then backflips again, the SNP will immediately call another referendum – this time, it’ll succeed.
Red Tories to go down on May 7 and 14 months later in Australia.
I wonder how much funding is put into polling by the papers. They have polling done on a nearly daily basis.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_2015#Seat_predictions
At this stage, it looks more than likely that neither major parties will win a majority, with the SNP the most likely kingmakers. Unless the Lib-Dems can retain enough seats, and along with a bunch of minor parties from Wales and Northern Ireland can be pressed into a coalition with one of the majors..
The Lib-Dems are bleeding votes at a much faster rate than the Tories. I’m surprised they haven’t pulled out of this ConDem coalition to salvage votes before the election.
[Edwina StJohn
Posted Tuesday, April 14, 2015 at 6:50 am | PERMALINK
Red Tories to go down on May 7 and 14 months later in Australia.]
ESJ
I would have thought after your embarrassing efforts at predicting the SA and QLD outcomes you might have retired gracefully and left the election predictions to those who actually know what they are talking about. You seem to be a glutton for punishment.
Ah, the political machinations of a small island state off the coast of Europe.
lwp
[Ah, the political machinations of a small island state off the coast of Europe.]
For reasons I cannot fathom, our Head of State hails from this faraway island state.
Maybe one day we’ll get our shit together, and choose a Head of State of our own.
leftwingpinko @7:
[Ah, the political machinations of a small island state off the coast of Europe.]
That happens to have the fourth most-powerful navy in the world, a nuclear arsenal of over 150 active warheads and the SSBNs to deliver them anywhere in the world.
That also happens to have a veto seat on the UN Security Council (one of just five), and an internationally-recognized leadership role in many fields.
Like them or loathe them, it behooves us to pay attention to the “political machinations” (by which, you mean “democratic electoral processes”) of this specific “small island state” in Europe.
Darn @6
I’m just curious what ESJ means about “Red Tories”.
If she thinks that we’re going to dump Abbott for being insufficiently right-wing, then she’s off her rocker!
[That also happens to have a veto seat on the UN Security Council (one of just five), and an internationally-recognized leadership role in many fields.]
Along with some republic in the Americas, a former Soviet-bloc Eastern European state, some authoritarian nation in Asia and a small country next to Germany.
Matt – well, they can send their nukes anywhere in the world they had the foresight to station a sub nearby…
I believe ESJ is predicting that Labour in the UK and Labor in Australia will lose due to being insufficiently distinguishable from the genuine Tory article; ie. they are Tories painted red.
kakaru – the Lib Dems logic seems to be that short term electoral pain is worth if it it demonstrates their worth as a stable long term political entity. They think the charge of instability inducing opportunists is worse than losing a handful of seats at the next election. Presumably all the Lib Dems brainstrust in the UK Parliament aren’t the ones fighting the marginals…
As most of their losses will come in Scotland – they generally fight the Tories in England and will not be particularly threatened by their coalition partner generally – they’re probably right. They can’t fight the SNP surge inside or outside of the coalition and if they stab the Tories in the back that’ll play terribly in their centrists south England constituencies.
If Labour were looking a little less limp it might be a different story.
If minority/coalition government is the new normal in the UK, we truly are living in interesting times.
Matt
[Like them or loathe them, it behooves us to pay attention to the “political machinations” (by which, you mean “democratic electoral processes”) of this specific “small island state” in Europe.]
I like them. Indeed, some of my best friends are English. I’ll be avidly following the UK election.
However, the UK’s impact on Australia – both geopolitical and economic – is far less than either the United States or China, or even Indonesia.
And they can keep their silly Royals.
The British Empire is long gone.
I am a dual citizen (UK and Australia) but I have chosen to vote only in Australian elections, since I have lived and worked here permanently for almost three decades— so sorry, Miliband, three votes less from my family. But I remain keenly interested in what happens socially and politically in the UK. I have got extended relos there, after all.
I predict a Labour win, but by a very thin thread. If there were compulsory voting in the UK like in Australia, Labour votes would be a great deal more. As things stand now, the SNP may be the key to a Labour government.
Hello everyone, newbie here.
Having been a long time lurker (I think since the early Gillard days), thought I’d register in time for our GE.
I’m in South Yorkshire (old coal country, just up the road from Fred Trueman’s birthplace) in a very safe Labour seat, so not too much doubt about the outcome here.
As for the big picture with 3 and a bit weeks to go, I see
more routes to Downing Street for EdM than DaveC – on current polling of course.
Welcome Ray(UK). So you are in the north of a country divided politically. I had thought for a long time that the Lib-Dems would end up backing a minority Labour Government, but more likely now is a Labour-SNP alliance. I suppose a second election in 2015 is always a possibility if things are too unstable, like in 1974.
Raaraa 3 – as for the polling, there is a lot but most of it is national (these days at least they split off Scotland and Wales for separate analysis). Lord Ashcroft has done most of the individual seat polling (or paid for it anyway). I always feel that his agenda in this is to try and make more Conservative-side voters vote “tactically” by demonstrating that say the UKIP vote in a constituency is too low for them to win, but enough to stop the Tories beating Labour. Maybe I am being paranoid, and he is just a genuinely obsessed psephologist.
Rocket Rocket – the second election is a possibility, although less likely now we have the Fixed Terms act.
I am a rusted on partisan, but as a supporter of electoral reform since the 80s part of me would like the result to be such a c#f# that we finally embrace meaningful reform. In the 80s I liked your system (or the shortcut supplementary vote) but I voted against the Alternative vote in the 2011 referendum as I now support PR.
I may have understated the local interest in my area in my initial post – next door to me we have a mini UKIP insurgency in Rotherham; Clegg’s Sheffield Hallam seat is not far away which could provide this year’s Portillo moment and Miliband’s Doncaster North is just to the east.
(My seat is Wentworth & Dearne)
Raara – the daily polling is about the only thing I’d ever give Rupert credit for, the daily poll for the Sun started well before the 2010 GE and has continued ever since. I am a member of the YouGov online poll so participate in it from time to time.
There is a possibility that like in the 1974 election, a repeat election is possible soon after, but only if the parliament voted to allow this as in the provisions of the Fixed Term act.
A current roll-up –
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/election-catchup-the-rival-manifestos-and-the-latest-opinion-polls-10174563.html
Got this link off the Crikey Tips & Rumours blog that says which citizens are eligible to vote provided they fulfil the residency requirements.
http://www.aboutmyvote.co.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0008/177884/Who-can-register-to-vote.pdf
Most likely result in my view is a Conservative minority government with confidence and supply from the Liberal Democrats and the unionist DUP from Northern Ireland. The Greens and UKIP may also pick up a few more seats. In Scotland the SNP will likely win scores of Labour seats making it more difficult for Labour to be the largest party. If Cameron remains PM an EU referendum is likely in 2017
7/9 Indeed and the UK is the 5th largest global economy too. Outside of the US election, the UK, German and French elections are the biggest in the western world. Of course as commonwealth, Anglo-Saxon nations the UK, Australia and New Zealand and Canada all still have a great deal in common even as they forge closer ties to Europe, Asia and the USA and Americas
Arrnea The Smith Commission proposals to give Scotland further powers are due to be legislated for following the election
@ Simon Baker, 23
Whether rightly or wrongly, the SNP and their voters will be suspicious that either major English major party will actually deliver those powers as promised after the election if they are not reliant on the SNP to form Government. For this reason alone, the SNP vote has boomed, largely at the expense of Labour (whose Scottish voters were more attuned to the idea of independence, or at least devo-max, than were Tory and LibDem voters).
Further, if there is an EU referendum in 2017 and the UK overall (no doubt driven by England) votes to secede, that will trigger another independence referendum in Scotland, regardless of whether or not the Smith Commission proposals get up. Scotland making a choice between the UK and the EU will not end well for the UK.
Arrnea UKIP polled as highly in the European elections in Wales as in Scotland. Some polls have shown a majority of SNP voters actually would support withdrawal from the EU. Of course it is equally possible England (beyond London) could narrowly vote out and Scotland strongly votes in, keeping the UK as a whole still in the EU. Most present polls show a tight vote on an EU referendum, with in narrowly ahead
Thoughts from election central here in London where I am on work-related business.
1. There is very little displays of any election material. I have seen none for parties. I haven’t watched much TV so maybe there is more there.
2. The Murdoch press are almost laughable in their daily front page headlines highlighting some new scandal. I’m sure it is just preaching to the converted.
3. Cameron has had his George H Bush “read my lips, no new taxes” moment, which may similarly come back to haunt him also.
4. Most people I have talked to realise the UK is heading for probably an unstable situation, but it doesn’t make them want to change their vote just for stability sake. And for the Tories, a big ukip vote will be bad.
5. since coming here I now think the Tories will win more votes and seats than Labour, but not enough to form government with Clegg or his replacement.
6. So then the Murdoch press will beat the drum of Labour’s “illegitimacy” if they form a minority government loosely supported by the SNP and others. Seems a bit familiar doesn’t it – can’t wait for the headlines – inevitably they will compare Miliband to famous dictators and tyrants through history for his “illicit power grab”
It is still looking to me like the anti-Tory cabal (Labour, SNP, SDLP, PC, Green etc) are on course for a narrow win. But a lot of uncertainty in the picture. Tories seem to be leading Labour in England by about a point on aggregate; that’s not enough, they probably need four or five.
27 No, Tories are leading in England by about 3-8 points and holding their own in Wales and Scotland, it is Labour who have suffered most from the rise of the SNP. Nate Silver predicts the Tories to be the largest party and have most seats, but Labour and the SNP to have more seats than the Tories, Cameron is reliant then on enough LD and DUP and even UKIP MPs to give him a majority and stay in No 10
26 Ironically the Sun is backing the Tories in England and Wales and the SNP in Scotland
Simon Baker@28
Whoops, I got confused between England-only and GB (but excluding Ireland) polling. The comments about the size of lead needed therefore apply across GB. Some of the polls show the Tories with a large enough lead but most don’t.
If you add up the seats on Nate Silver’s projection – or indeed most of the others going around – Tory+LD+UKIP+DUP is generally not enough seats on current polls.
Finally saw my first party poster – in a window of a home near Kennington Oval. A Labour poster – notably in the window of the “downstairs” flat!
Just got back and watching Miliband on ‘Question Time” – town hall type TV questions.
Ed got a big clap mentioning Climate change.
Zero hour contracts – small business tourism operator comprising.
Immigration policy – Ed says there have been only two prosecutions for paying immigrants too little. ” I don’t think it’s racist to deal with immigration”
Woman calls out – angry – why don’t you set a target? Angry woman.
I don’t want to set a target, because I don’t want to stand like Cameron in a few years changing it.
Jo, not a happy camper, keeps interrupting. ” free for all” “where are they going to live”
End of his 28 minutes.
Now Clegg
Your promise on student loans destroyed your reputation, why should we believe anything you say.
I had to break that . Stuck between a rock and hard place. Then gets onto set list of achievements.
Convenor – why did you vote for it, and not abstain.
We were told no money left. Both major parties wanted fees to go up substantially.
In Yorkshire.
P. You are taking away money from future generations.
C. You only start paying back when you you get to 20k. Fairer system.
Moderator . About trust.
P. Would you go into coalition in hindsight.
C. Diff, brave decision, we could have been Greece. I’m sure higher inflation, unemployment if not stable govt. now all the sacrifices will be undone by hard right cuts or by left.
Bethany – is leaking details of policy by Tories going to help you get into coalition again.
C. Not leak.
M. Did you know
C. Yes
M. Last autumn Osborne said they would only increase taxes on the poorest, 12 bill pounds, taking it out of welfare. Danny was making the point that the Tories have unfair plan to bal books.
Woman – we want reasons why to vote for you, not just why not to vote for others.
C. Ok, but Tories give no plan, labour have no plan to balance books. In the decisions after election, how do you finish job fairly. Lib dems make more sense,.
M who are you going to make pm
C. Do or em will be pm.
M. Maybe no one can get majority.
C. Dc or em will be pm, who with – SNP, ukip, or us. Do not lurch off to right or left.
Person. How do we know you won’t change your policies after election.
C. Fair question (then not answering it). Lib dems will not go into any coalition with anyone who cuts education funding,.
M. You want expansion.
C. It would be another 5 bill by end
P. Do you have plans next week when you become unemployed and your party becomes irrelevant?
C . Charming. No I don’t.
P. Are you concerned about inc food bank recipients?
C. Yes. We raised point where inc tax came in. 3 mill people now pay no inc tax.
We need a yellow card sanction system , penalties should not be so harsh on welfare recips
P. You are ok, but these changes happened because you put doc in number 10. People like me who voted lib dem did not want to put Tories into power. (Big cheer)
C. No one won, I did not. You are the boss, we are the servants. You give us the marching instructions.
P. Our economy was nothing like Greece. Don’t treat us like fools.
C. We had to provide stable govt. I will never apologise for having bravely stepped up to the plate and put country ahead of lib dems.
P. Democracy. Will you first speak to who has most seats.
C. Yes they have first chance. It may not work out. It seems that who has nose ahead has mandate to try and put together a govt.
Lady. Free movement in eu dud it create a problem in UK.
C. Freedom to claim caused the problem.
C. I stopped this. Also many Brits in eu.
M. Where do you stand on referendum on eu.
C. Doc and I agreed. He seems to have changed his mind. If our powers are diluted by eu, we should be able to have ref. Tories have now changed their mind. We should have a ref of new powers are given to eu. I want to stay in eu.
M. Thus you can’t go into coalition. He says he will have ref.
C. They float diff dates. They are changing their minds all,the time.
M. Only when new powers are given up then.
P. We’ve got 8 about to leave eu – Spain, Cyprus, debt, eu bonds neg rates. Germany 70% bonds eg rates. How bad does it get till we leave.
C. I don’t believe 8 will leave. In a global world we can do tushes better. Clim change, corporations. I don’t want to see UK split.
P. Answer q. France could vote in anti eu
C. I cannot envisage circs in which we would leave. Would jap car makers etc invest If we left eu.
P. You believe in true democ. You should give a eu ref.
C. Explained already.
Lady. Russia. Trident?
C. Should keep it. Do we need 3 or 4. Originally designed to flatten Moscow at the push of a button. We face diff threats to Cold War. Not solved by 4 v 3
P. When were we last attacked
C
P. Because we are meddling in their countries
C. No justification for terror. Good liberal but no inconsistency. We don’t make ourselves less free by being safe.
M. What if you can’t get Tories or labour on side. What will you do.
C. I want to keep helping etched.
End – pity I missed Cameron. loved the Yorkshire voices from Leeds. A lot of anger about Clegg going into Coalition with Tories 5 years ago. He tries to say he would be the “heart” of the Tories or the “brains” of Labour.
Audience didn’t sound impressed with Clegg trying to justify why he went into Coalition.
Anyway, signing off – this was not verbatim, I was typing on mini iPad as fast as I could the general context.
C = Clegg, p = person, m = moderator.
Post reviews.
Tories – Cameron only one who looked like pm
Labour – Tory cuts. No SNP coalition.
Lib Dems – only ones who are seeing the reality of what will happen.
I missed Miliband tripping leaving stage.
Cameron was dodging questions on welfare cuts.
Apparently Clegg got the most tough questions from audience.
Instant poll put Cameron ahead of Miliband.
Daily Mirror – Cameron didn’t answer q about welfare cuts. Good audience.
The sun – cam good. Miliband struggling on balance books.
Fin times – Clegg flat.
Bbc political editor – exposed weak spots
C welfare cuts
M SNP economy fiscal
C tuition fees, sold out
Audience – lack of trust in politicians.
Who won . C least bad . General lack of trust
Tomorrows front pages coming up.
31 35 ICM poll has given it to Cameron 44-38 with Clegg on 19
30 It is close, Cameron’s debate win could help. he could also squeeze the UKIP vote in the last week with his EU referendum pledge as Netanyahu squeezed the rightwing minor parties in Israel
Daily telegraph – Miliband stumbles over his spending record.
(Very mild headline compared to recently)
Mirror – Betrayal of our schollkids
(Tory cuts)
Bbc review of debate
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/election-2015-32519586
The Tories are surely in trouble if they are relying on both the Lib Dems and UKIP, because I can’t see them agreeing to be in the same coalition. If that was the case the Lib Dems would probably go over to Labour.
Although I tend to think the Tories will have the most seats, I find it hard to avoid seeing a Labour minority government on these numbers. There are just so many more Labour-friendly smaller parties.
Dear All – should be a fascinating general election. It seems likely that the Tories will have the largest number of seats, but as with the previous poster I agree that it is difficult to see how a Tory government is going to be formed based on the likely minor party composition.
I will be voting by proxy in the constituency of Sheffield Central, which is currently a marginal Labour seat (Labour v Lib Dem), but will almost certainly see a collapse in the Lib Dem vote, and a 10% plus swing to Labour.
The adjacent seat of Sheffield Hallam (Nick Clegg’s constituency) appears to be lineball based on the latest Lord Ashcroft poll. This seat has a massive population of university students and academics, many of whom previously voted Lib Dem. There was also a lot of tactical Lib Dem voting in this seat previously by Labour supporters to keep the Tories out. The university types are thoroughly disgusted by the sell-out of the Lib Dems and will back Labour in their droves. The only question in Hallam is whether tactical voting by Tories may save Nick Clegg.
It’s still all to play for with one week to go – but at the moment a minority Labour government is probably marginally favourite.
Both the Tories and Labour have made it abundantly clear that Scottish MP’s can have no influence on the government of the UK, should those MPs be elected from the SNP.
This is six months after the lies during the referendum that they valued Scotland in the Union.
Mr Ed would rather Cameron be PM than deal with the SNP (so he says), or is he trying a bit of blackmail?.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aJxSarRYXV0
William,
The link in your comments for April 30 doesn’t seem to be correct.
Cheers
39/40 No, the LDs have made clear they will back the largest party so a Tory minority government is most likely. They have also ruled out working with the SNP, and it would not be a coalition but confidence and supply
41 The Smith Commission proposals for more powers for Scotland will be legislated following the election so there will be no ‘betrayal’. It would be political suicide for Labour to do a formal deal with the SNP, Scots could vote SNP and for more and more powers knowing they would still get a Labour government, while English voters would defect to the Tories, UKIP and even the Greens as a Labour-SNP government saw more and more of their money being taken to fund Scotland
WatChing the bbc news. Saw end of lib dem broadcast, but it leaves you wondering who they will back when their ad is a ‘pox on both your houses’.
The bbc party broadcasts are here
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/search?q=party%20election%20broadcasts
ELection is finally dominating the news, and more people seem to be talking about it.
Apparently one woman who grilled Miliband in the Leeds audience of “undecideds” was actually a rusted on Tort. What a surprise!
Tory that is.
Not much election news today. More on last round of games in the lower soccer divisions. Saw some happy, and sad fans of various teams around on the tube afterwards.
And also of course the birth of the new person who, very importantly to the British, is now fourth in line to be Australia’s Head of State.
Wish I could stay for the election next week, but have to go back to my day job.
Did pick up some Labour Party “ephemera”. Still prefer our spelling, though.
Not much election news today. More on last round of games in the lower soccer divisions. Saw some happy, and sad fans of various teams around on the tube afterwards.
And also of course the birth of the new person who, very importantly to the British, is now fourth in line to be Australia’s Head of State.
Wish I could stay for the election next week, but have to go back to my day job.
Did pick up some Labour Party “ephemera”. Still prefer our spelling, though.
Not much election news today. More on last round of games in the lower soccer divisions. Saw some happy, and sad fans of various teams around on the tube afterwards.
And also of course the birth of the new person who, very importantly to the British, is now fourth in line to be Australia’s Head of State.
Wish I could stay for the election next week, but have to go back to my day job.
Did pick up some Labour Party “ephemera”. Still prefer our spelling, though.