BludgerTrack: 52.2-47.8 to Labor

Two new polls take some of the edge off the Newspoll-driven movement to the Coalition in last week’s reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

With new results from Morgan and Essential Research added to the mix, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate records a slight move to Labor of 0.3% on two-party preferred. The main mover on the primary vote this week is the Greens, who got an unusually strong result from Essential Research. Evidence continues to accumulate that the Coalition’s recent recovery has been strongest in New South Wales and weakest in South Australia, although both are unchanged on the seat projection this week, with Labor’s two gains drawn from Victoria and Tasmania. Nothing new on leadership approval this week, and it seems likely we have a quiet week ahead of us due to the Anzac Day long weekend (UPDATE: Turns out that’s only true in some states, but it’s certainly the case that Newspoll won’t be polling this weekend).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,810 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.2-47.8 to Labor”

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  1. The liberals still have Chris Bowen, now he’s promising to slash negative gearing. Don’t these want to win seats in Sydney ?

  2. William,
    Only WA I believe have a long weekend for Anzac Day.
    It will be interesting to see if Newspolll interprets any bounce to the government as related to the anniversary.
    Here in NSW it has been completely overshadowed by the storm.

  4. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. I slept in until 0600 this morning so the links are a bit late.

    Aldi is about to get its knuckles rapped over snaky credit card fees.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/retail/aldi-under-fire-on-disclosure-of-credit-card-tapandgo-fees-20150422-1mp4wo.html
    Seven wants to kill staff motivation.
    http://www.smh.com.au/small-business/the-venture/seven-ways-to-kill-staff-motivation-20150422-1mquz7.html
    The anti-vaxxers are getting desperate.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/australian-vaccination-skeptics-network-compares-vaccines-to-rape-20150422-1mr0wk.html
    Mesma mildly slaps down Abbott’s “Stop the boats” advice to Europe.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/foreign-minister-julie-bishop-casts-doubt-on-prime-ministers-stoptheboats-policy-for-european-nations-20150422-1mr6ub.html
    John Garnaut looks at Julie Bishop’s performance.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/our-shining-foreign-minister-needs-to-focus-20150422-1mqla7.html
    The mediaeval madness of religion on display again.
    http://www.smh.com.au/victoria/girls-at-islamic-school-banned-from-running-teachers-claim-20150422-1mr0io.html
    Labor flags grandfathered negative gearing changes. If they keep putting policy out early in the electoral cycle it may well spook Abbott and Hockey.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/shadow-treasurer-chris-bowen-flags-labor-intention-to-wind-back-negative-gearing-20150422-1mqpu7.html
    Hunt says that the CCA recommendation for a 30% emissions reduction is too big a burden. Well it certainly IS for the lousy Direct Action policy.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/climate-change-authority-targets-too-big-a-burden-says-government-20150422-1mqxme.html
    Kristina Keneally is having second thoughts about Pope Francis.
    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/apr/22/pope-francis-is-starting-to-look-a-lot-like-sarah-palin-or-kevin-rudd
    Mark Kenny seems to be in support of Bowen’s superannuation proposal.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/labors-crackdown-on-super-tax-breaks-for-wealthy-is-politically-risky-but-makes-sense-20150422-1mqlxi.html

  5. Section 2 . . .

    And this SMH editorial agrees but says Labor should go further with it.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-editorial/labors-small-step-towards-sustainable-and-fair-superannuation-20150422-1mqjra.html
    Chaos and uncertainty reign as Great Britain’s election day looms.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/uk-votes,7619
    Stephen Koukoulas thinks we have seen the last of the interest rate cuts in this cycle.
    http://thekouk.com/blog/inflation-joins-jobs-housing-commodity-prices-on-the-upside.html
    The 29 worst things the Liberals did yesterday.
    http://www.ellistabletalk.com/2015/04/22/the-twenty-nine-worst-things-the-liberals-did-yesterday-240/
    Front line public servants are increasingly being subjected to violence and abuse.
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/public-service/fear-of-violence-stalks-frontline-public-service-workers-20150422-1mqorq.html
    It seems like the banks are dodging APRA restrictions.
    http://www.businessspectator.com.au/news/2015/4/23/financial-services/banks-dodging-apra-restrictions-report
    How dogs have evolved to cohabit with humans.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2015/04/22/dogs-hacked-brains-love/
    Sprung!!
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/apr/22/bjorn-lomborg-centre-government-approached-us-says-university
    The Coalition is set for a grilling on the Lomberg scandal.
    https://newmatilda.com/2015/04/22/coalition-set-grilling-lomborg-funding-leaks-cast-doubt-claims
    Hockey’s colleagues are upset with “No Show Joe”.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/no-show-joe-lashed-for-missing-key-budget-razor-gang-meeting-20150422-1mqqm2.html

  7. Yes here in SA there is no long weekend. I suppose the Anzacs died so that those Turks would not stop us being a business friendly country. Nothing to do with a fair go or anything like that.

  8. Thanks Bk. It is worth looking at the detail of the. Chris Bowen tax story:
    [Speaking at the National Press Club, Mr Bowen said it would be “irresponsible to rule out going to the next election with changes to, for example, negative gearing”.

    “I have said our principle will be 1. Do not disadvantage people who have made investments in good faith under current rules. 2. Do not risk reducing the supply of new housing or, if possible, improve the situation with the supply of new housing’,” he said.

    Prime Minister Tony Abbott last week ruled out any changes to negative gearing, saying he didn’t want his government’s tax reform plans to begin with “increasing taxes”.]
    so the Labor Party intends to do something about mounting public and private debt while the party that complained about a debt tsunami will not.

  9. Morning all

    BK

    Appreciate today’s dawn patrol.

    kenny’s article header is how Labor should frame the super proposals.

    [Superannuation was designed to encourage people to save for retirement, not to allow the very wealthy to park their money out of reach of the taxman.]

  11. As part of our upgrade with our internet service provider, we now have netflix. Together with unlimited broadband, we have the bonus of netflix for six months. Thereafter to retain netflix it would cost 12 per month. We have already watched several shows now and have to say that foxtel should be shitting their pants

  12. This bears out what I said about the headgear. The Coalition talks tough at home, but is weak in reality.

    [Human rights activists had pleaded with our Foreign Minister before her trip to leave the headscarf at home. Dissident political journalist Masih Alinejad – now living in the US – had asked Bishop to bare her hair as a gesture of solidarity with Iranian women fighting for their rights. In May last year Alinejad created the Facebook page My Stealthy Freedom, where Iranian women post defiant images of themselves removing their hijabs, often under signs urging them to cover up. The page has more than a million followers.

    Bishop has said she’s no feminist. Let’s forget about labels, she said last month on the occasion of International Women’s Day, and “look at what people do.” Well, in Tehran she genuflected to the mullahs and undermined the women agitating for freedom.

    The symbolism of Bishop’s headgear evokes a political dynamic that at first seems all wrong. Why was Bishop the one going over-the-top with “respect”? Surely the Iranian leadership had more to gain from the Foreign Minister’s visit than we did. Presumably Bishop’s presence was a significant propaganda coup for a regime eager to shed its pariah status, flexing its muscles on the world stage.

    Who knows what really goes on behind closed doors in international diplomacy. But clearly Australia is asking Iran to accept the forcible return of citizens who failed in their applications for refugee status in Australia. This was reportedly a key goal of Bishop’s visit. And in this sense the headscarf is a fitting metaphor: to appear tough on border protection, our leaders will sell out just about any Western value.]

    http://www.theage.com.au/comment/julie-bishops-head-covering-sends-the-wrong-message-to-iranian-leaders-20150422-1mqe8h.html

  13. Lol

    Bolts latest expression of his pathological hatred towards Tim Flannery relies on a fake photo of the Sydney Harbour bridge looking like Victoria Falls

  15. Another opinion on Labor’s superannuation tax concession proposal.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/money/2015/04/22/labors-super-tax-gift-rich/
    [On Wednesday Labor announced that, if elected in 2016, it would crack down on super tax concessions to the rich, saving $14 billion in the process.

    The $14 billion figure may sound like a lot. But if you read on you would have discovered that it referred to the 10-year saving, making the annual figure a rather less impressive $1.4 billion.

    Given super tax concessions currently cost the government as much as $30 billion a year, this $1.4 billion barely makes a dent.

    Early calculations by The Australia Institute suggest Labor’s plan will only affect 0.5 per cent of the population – that is, people who earn more than $250,000 a year, and retirees with more than $1.5 million in superannuation.

    Those who were hoping for major structural, budget-saving change to the way super is taxed will be further disappointed by Chris Bowen’s solemn promise that this will be Labor’s one and only super tax reform.

    …The union movement’s position also offers no insight into Labor’s timidity. The Australian Council of Trade Unions described Labor’s plan as “a step in the right direction”, but called for it to go further, taxing super contributions at marginal rates (a policy to this effect was recommended by the Greens that would save $5 billion a year).]

    The Self Managed Super Fund (SMSF) Association, which represents the wealthiest class of super fund member has given Labor’s proposals its qualified support.

    It’s tinkering at the margins.

  17. Sir Mad

    There has been a lot of whinging about the Grand final eve holiday. Apparently the GF parade may be a fizzer cos of it. I am finding this line of thinking quite laughable. There has been an attempt to link no office workers and the higher cost of hospitality staff on the day as a reason that it will fail

  19. I have a colleague who used to work at the H&WT and I asked him one day if Mr Bolt was actually a different person in real life and his response was no he is exactly like how he comes across in his columns and blog … An obnoxious, arrogant, ignorant, angry bully

  20. Bernard Keane on twitter. Why doesnt this surprise me

    [News Corp hack Peter Van Onselen calls Labor’s super tax changes “nothing more than deliberate class warfare”…]

  21. victoria

    I am very disappointed in PvO (unless he is being provocative, which he often is). I thought he had more intelligence than to trot out that stale mantra. Leigh Sales did the same last night.

  22. [This bears out what I said about the headgear. The Coalition talks tough at home, but is weak in reality.]

    Ah interesting I had been very critical of bludgers even raising the issue, but I was wrong it was political fair game. I also like that they tried to convince the FM to do the right thing in private rather than through the media. Kudos to them, my apologies to all.

    [News Corp hack Peter Van Onselen calls Labor’s super tax changes “nothing more than deliberate class warfare”…]

    I like that Keane calls him a news corp hack, he tries so hard to trick people into thinking he is an intelligent neutral commentator rather than a younger more polished Bolt.

  28. The usual suspects are out defending negative gearing. Apparently lots of battlers on $70,000 a year use it.

    Someone should ask them why get out the sad violins for everyone except the poor sod in the PAYE system.

  29. victoria

    It was a very poor interview, in the sense that Sales attacked instead of drawing out the detail of the reforms. Definitely gave the impression that she had orders to ‘kill’ the Opposition.

  30. [Someone should ask them why get out the sad violins for everyone except the poor sod in the PAYE system.]

    Because slugging us is easy and fun.

  32. victoria@20

    Bernard Keane on twitter. Why doesnt this surprise me

    News Corp hack Peter Van Onselen calls Labor’s super tax changes the GST, negative gearing and company profit shifting “nothing more than deliberate class warfare”…

    Fixed for Pvo.

  33. So labor has proposed some changes to Super.

    The liberals have proposed uncapped uni fees and much more expensive student loans.

    PAYG mediNOTcare

    That the states should beg for a big fat rise in the GST and then if Bill agrees (the most cowardly politics ever seen).

    Hopefully to come from Bill and Chris:

    Removal of the 50% CGT discount.

    2.5% increase in the GST (i don’t think this is great tax policy but I think it would be important politics).

    Home mortgage super annuation offset accounts (phased in)

    Income and super pooling for couples.

  34. Morning all.

    Thanks BK for today’s reading. What an interesting piece by KK.

    [I’m starting to have a crisis of faith. Not in God, but rather, in Pope Francis.

    It seems a betrayal to even write these words. I’m a progressive Catholic who longs for a church that is more welcoming of women, homosexuals and divorced people. I want a church where the hierarchy spends more time talking about liberating the poor and oppressed and less time lecturing about birth control. I pray for a church that comprehensively faces the causes of child sexual abuse so we can have confidence such systematic evil will never occur again.

    Francis – global superstar, media darling, a truly modern pope – is the best hope people like me have had for many years, right? He’s the second coming of John XXIII, isn’t he?

    I confess that I am starting to doubt it.

    …

    The pope has transmogrified into the most modern of all creatures: a 21st century celebrity. Having spent the past two years taking selfies, delighting crowds with his antics and entertaining the media with his well-placed “off the cuff” quips, Francis is starting to look familiar. Think Sarah Palin, or Kevin Rudd: people who confuse popularity with leadership, or celebrity with substance.]
    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/apr/22/pope-francis-is-starting-to-look-a-lot-like-sarah-palin-or-kevin-rudd

    I can see where she’s coming from.

  41. [The Queen has officially presented Prince Philip with his Australian knighthood.

    During a private ceremony at Windsor Castle, the Monarch awarded her husband the medal, recognising his service to Australia throughout her reign.

    – See more at: http://www.skynews.com.au/news/top-stories/2015/04/23/queen-knights-husband-prince-philip.html#sthash.HOeZCfBH.rVgEuWjf.dpuf ]

    How utterly silly this looks, and how unsurprising that we haven’t heard one thing about this from the govt!

  42. confessions@39

    Why wouldn’t other states have Anzac Day public holiday when it’s a national holiday?

    The holiday is observed and taken on the day it falls in most states whether on a weekend or not.

    Think WA & NT are the only ones that get the monday as a public holiday. Also NZ.

  43. fess

    Because the National Holiday is Anzac Day, the Saturday. Some States withdrew that ‘extra day’ when the N.H. fell at weekend. Productivity, y’know.

  45. fess

    Now, now, Tony’s busy. He’s out chasing turrurists. He can’t do everything. He only gets to be Superman when he’s wearing his budgies.

  46. [“The liberals still have Chris Bowen, now he’s promising to slash negative gearing. Don’t these want to win seats in Sydney ?”]

    Why didn’t he do it with his 6 Years in power including a couple of stints as Treasurer?

    Actually that’s like asking why he didn’t stop the boats as Immigration Minister… he is USELESS.

  47. On Saturday there are at least 5 AFL matches straight after Anzac Day formalities. This has attracted s fair bit of criticism here in Melbourne.

    Naturally the AFL will milk this to the maximum extent … Comparing the battle in the trenches with the battle on the field. WTF!

    No doubt Gerard Wheatley from the ABC will paint a similar picture with his usual overblown and tortuous use of the English language.

  48. Yep, public holiday in Sandropia on Monday. Only place in Oz, I think.

    I think Labor is smart with floating the NG direction.

    One, it comes nice and early and lets the whingers, self-interested and bloody minded to get their opposition out early. The counter to people like PVO with the class thing, is to just throw the word “fairness” back. I gather that some 60% of NG beneficiaries are among the highest income earners in Oz. That is, is screams tax perk.

    Two, it takes the steam out of the “Show us your policies, Bill” whinge from the conservatives.

    Three, there is legitimacy in the proposed policy direction.

    Four, the idea is not friendless.

    Five, it is coupled with other suggestions as to the way Labor might go in the taxation area such as super.

  49. dave, lizzie:

    My work calendar on my phone, which is automatically programmed with all PHs from around the country, lists tomorrow as the Anzac Day in lieu PH.

    Weird.

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