BludgerTrack: 52.2-47.8 to Labor

Two new polls take some of the edge off the Newspoll-driven movement to the Coalition in last week’s reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

With new results from Morgan and Essential Research added to the mix, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate records a slight move to Labor of 0.3% on two-party preferred. The main mover on the primary vote this week is the Greens, who got an unusually strong result from Essential Research. Evidence continues to accumulate that the Coalition’s recent recovery has been strongest in New South Wales and weakest in South Australia, although both are unchanged on the seat projection this week, with Labor’s two gains drawn from Victoria and Tasmania. Nothing new on leadership approval this week, and it seems likely we have a quiet week ahead of us due to the Anzac Day long weekend (UPDATE: Turns out that’s only true in some states, but it’s certainly the case that Newspoll won’t be polling this weekend).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,810 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.2-47.8 to Labor”

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  1. Let’s all say a prayer whatever your denomination or whichever God you pray to for Indonesia to save these two young men from execution.

    What is about to happen to them if Indonesia goes ahead with their program is absolutely barbaric.

    We will see what happens tomorrow!

  2. Matt:

    When I met with Sen Smith when he was down here a couple years ago, he indicated to me that he was resolutely opposed to SSM, even voted against the last bill that was put to the Senate.

    Seems he had an epiphany after the Lindt cafe siege.

  3. [ You jumped in trying to score personal points and I have responded in good faith about what I understood re Labor’s party position. ]

    You don’t need to take it personally – it wasn’t intended so.

    So we are both agreed that Labor’s policy is the appropriate one?


  4. Other phone pollers would not have wanted to do normal calls on Saturday (Anzac day) so no Newspoll, but ReachTEL did Robopolling late last week, released it tonight probably after compiling it today.

  5. I agree with fess – why focus this on the Labor party?

    Even if the Labor party vote to support ssm at Conference, it will make not a bit of difference to the current situation – whereas, if the Liberals allowed a conscience vote tomorrow, we could see ssm legalised within a few months.

    Of course, the answer is that this is another way for the Greens to beat up on Labor. They’re not interested in attacking the Liberals.

  6. [his use of his twitter account was a breach of the SBS social media policy. The policy even has a section on use of personal accounts.]

    I’ve just read the policy and he certainly didn’t breach any of the specific offences, it’s just the broad “damage the reputation and integrity of SBS”, “capacity to perform your duties in an effective manner” provisions that he would possibly be in breach of. I’m not an industrial lawyer and don’t know how much scope the courts give management to interpret such provisions – presumably quite a lot – but nonetheless there does seem to be a fair degree of subjectivity in this assessment.

  7. [Of course, the answer is that this is another way for the Greens to beat up on Labor. They’re not interested in attacking the Liberals.]

    Yawn. 30 seconds of internet research disproves this.

    Search the Greens site for marriage equality. Every single one of the top hits attacks the Libs more than it attacks the ALP.

    Perhaps the ALP aren’t interested in facts…

  8. Labor allows caucus to have a conscience vote on SSM -bad as far as the greens and others are concerned.

    On AS policy caucus has a binding vote – bad as far as the greens and others are concerned.

    On one issue labor caucus should be told how to vote and on the other caucus should show some backbone and vote as they see fit.

    As far as the greens and others are concerned it seems everything is flexible as long as it suits their agenda.

    Smells a tad of hyprocisy as far as I am concerned.


  9. How ironic that the most potent attack on Hunt’s ridiculous lies about Direct Action so far has been in the Australian.

    Has Rupert lost control or has he had some kind of epiphany?

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