BludgerTrack: 52.2-47.8 to Labor

Two new polls take some of the edge off the Newspoll-driven movement to the Coalition in last week’s reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

With new results from Morgan and Essential Research added to the mix, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate records a slight move to Labor of 0.3% on two-party preferred. The main mover on the primary vote this week is the Greens, who got an unusually strong result from Essential Research. Evidence continues to accumulate that the Coalition’s recent recovery has been strongest in New South Wales and weakest in South Australia, although both are unchanged on the seat projection this week, with Labor’s two gains drawn from Victoria and Tasmania. Nothing new on leadership approval this week, and it seems likely we have a quiet week ahead of us due to the Anzac Day long weekend (UPDATE: Turns out that’s only true in some states, but it’s certainly the case that Newspoll won’t be polling this weekend).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,810 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.2-47.8 to Labor”

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  1. WWP
    😉
    I should have used ‘argument’ instead of ‘discussion’. Didn’t want to get bound up in ‘he said, she said’.

  4. [ In an ABC interview (I think) she said she voted the way she felt her constituents wanted her to. Sam as ‘retaining her seat’, I suppose. ]

    Am I missing something here? Isn’t the point of an elected representative to represent the views held by their electorate? Not necessarily their personal views?

    That’s why I think it’s prefectly correct to leave SSM as a conscience vote – i.e. it allows the elected members to do exactly that.

  5. zoomster
    [and you miss the point, peg – or the context.]
    lol, i understood, believe it, or not 😉 i would have been disappointed if u hadn’t displayed your typical condescension.

  6. Jake

    However he has not been a bigot. Rape and other crimes happen in society every day. The tweet that mentions that does so not just in reference to Gallipoli but to Japan and other theatres of war as well.

    I do not believe that Australian soldiers have been the only army in human history not to have rapists amongst them.

    For his comments to be outrageous you have to prove the part that is outrageous. That is arguable at best. Certainly not a sacking offence. After all Eddie McGuire with his Gorilla making gorilla comments on air about Adam Goodes was not a sacking offense let alone on a private twitter account.

  11. http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/gay-liberal-senator-dean-smith-slams-tanya-plibersek-over-gay-marriage-move-20150427-1mu99l.html
    [Deputy Labor leader Tanya Plibersek has “wrecked” progress within the Liberal Party towards a conscience vote on same-sex marriage, the Liberal Party’s first openly gay federal parliamentarian says.

    Dean Smith – a conservative senator from WA who recently revealed he now supports same-sex marriage – said he felt “personally disappointed” by Ms Plibersek’s decision to push for a binding Labor vote on the issue at the party’s national conference in July.

    “If the ALP was to adopt a binding vote on same-sex marriage then the issue of a conscience vote in the Liberal Party is dead,” Senator Smith told Fairfax Media.

    ………

    Senator Smith said he suspected Ms Plibersek’s position was more about internal Labor politics than advancing the cause of same-sex marriage. ]

  12. zoomster

    Thats not snarky. Thats just being accurate.

    I note you have not addressed the actual issue of party dynamics that I think and maybe you disagree are behind the move by Plibersek.

  13. [“Scott McIntyre does have the right to be a bigot, you know.”]

    It isn’t about being a bigot, he is being punished because he is right. We are in a ‘war’ with ISIS where we are ‘good’ and everyone in ISIS is evil and subhuman and worthy of extermination.

    We are also 100 years on from WW1 and in the process of glorifying it as a myth, without the inconvenient reminders of the ugly evilness of war. The SBS dude foolishly spoke truth to a nation in love with itself and its dual war and terrorism myths and not looking keen to wake up to reality of either any time soon.

  14. [“If the ALP was to adopt a binding vote on same-sex marriage then the issue of a conscience vote in the Liberal Party is dead,” Senator Smith told Fairfax Media.]

    This is insane. Why would this be the case Senator Smith? Don’t try to blame the intolerance and hate in your side of politics on Labor. You idiot!

  15. [ This is insane. Why would this be the case Senator Smith? Don’t try to blame the intolerance and hate in your side of politics on Labor. You idiot! ]

    But … but … everything has to be Labor’s fault!

  16. I was going by this….

    Conscience votes during the Howard Government 1996 2007:
    http://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp0809/09rp20
    [The term conscience vote is most commonly used in Australia to describe votes on moral and social issues such as abortion, euthanasia and capital punishment the life and death issues in which senators and members are not obliged to vote along party lines. In Australia the term may also include issues on which the parties do not always have a formal policy such as parliamentary procedure and parliamentary privilege.]

  17. [Isn’t the point of an elected representative to represent the views held by their electorate?]

    Its an oldie but a goodie. And it should be revisited regularly.

    IMO MP’s represent the people who elect them but they do not, should not and can not represent the ‘views of the electorate’ nor even the view of the majority of the electorate.

    I prefer my leaders to lead for the 3 years they get voted in rather than follow the mob. Besides, who has time to weigh up all the factors in all the issues? That what we pay our MP’s to do.

    I like this bit from wiki p…
    [Ochlocracy (“rule of the general populace”) is democracy (“rule of the people”) spoiled by demagoguery, “tyranny of the majority”, and the rule of passion over reason]

  18. from the same source…
    [During the Howard Government (1996 2007) five bills attracted a conscience vote at an average of one every 2.4 years. These bills, with a shorthand term for each bill in brackets, were:

    Euthanasia Laws Bill 1996 [Euthanasia Bill]
    Research Involving Embryos Bill 2002 [Stem Cell Bill]
    Prohibition of Human Cloning Bill 2002 [Cloning Bill] [10]
    Therapeutic Goods Amendment (Repeal of Ministerial Responsibility for Approval of RU486) Bill 2005 [RU486 Bill] and
    Prohibition of Human Cloning for Reproduction and the Regulation of Human Embryo Research Amendment Bill 2006 [Therapeutic Cloning Bill].]

  19. [“If the ALP was to adopt a binding vote on same-sex marriage then the issue of a conscience vote in the Liberal Party is dead,” Senator Smith told Fairfax Media.]

    LOL how freakin’ hilarious! How’s about he (and the Greens for that matter) focus their attention on the Liberal party, which does not support marriage equality, period?!

  20. [ I was going by this…. ]

    Then you probably missed this …

    [ Other decisions which were taken by a free (i.e. conscience) vote include abandoning the experiment with permanent summer time and bringing television cameras into Parliament. ]

    All a “conscience vote” really means is that the party has no “official” line on this issue.

    Seems a perfectly appropriate position for SSM, which is a third-order issue for most people (yes, I know some feel very stronly about it – but most people couldn’t care less).

  21. “Not every muslim is a terrorist but blanket statements about Australian soldiers being rapists and thieves are spot-on.”

  22. McIntyre’s main crime was to talk about reality when everyone else was intend on fanatasy.

    BTW, Turnbull has a habit of dobbing in people to their employers if they displease him. Turnbull is certainly a nasty piece of work.

  23. Jake

    The tweet certainly did not say all. Then when you take that individual tweet in the context of the stream of tweets on the subject by Mr McIntyre you certainly cannot claim the all encompassing implications you are tying to imply

  25. [All a “conscience vote” really means is that the party has no “official” line on this issue.]
    Isn’t it Labor policy according to its national platform to support SSM?

    [Labor’s platform currently supports same-sex marriage but does not make it compulsory for Labor MPs to support it in a parliamentary vote.]
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/binding-vote-for-labor-mps-on-samesex-marriage-foolish-says-union-heavyweight-joe-de-bruyn-20150427-1mu1nt.html

    Party platform not an “official line”? Or, is it all about semantics?

  26. Personally I found nothing offensive about McIntyre’s tweets, but accept that if his use of social media breached his employer’s code of conduct for its use, then action was right to have been taken. Terminating his employment? Perhaps extreme. However, it would appear SBS offered him the option of apologising and retracting the tweets, but he refused.

  27. confessions

    SBS should have no say on the private remarks made on twitter.

    The only say it should get is a non compete clause not a censorship clause. Non compete because twitter is a media platform.

  29. [All a “conscience vote” really means is that the party has no “official” line on this issue.]

    Labor policy supports marriage equality. Like I said before, if people want to make some bullshit political point about the absence of parliamentary support for SSM, then they’d be better off directing their ire at the Liberal party, which does not support marriage equality at all.

  30. [ (yes, I know some feel very stronly about it – but most people couldn’t care less).]
    Yes, I guess according 2 some,tyranny by the majority to discriminate against a minority, is A-okay.

    Anyway, isn’t public opinion running well in favour of SSM?

  32. Confessions

    My actual view is that the vote should be binding for the reasons Plibersek is pursuing this at National Conference.

    I think the reasons behind it being brought up now are more complex than appears on the face of it but the reasons Plibersek gives are right and this should have been done before this. So I think its a good move in its own right.

  35. [..but the reasons Plibersek gives are right and this should have been done before this. So I think its a good move in its own right.]
    Exactly.

  36. [ Anyway, isn’t public opinion running well in favour of SSM? ]

    Yes, most people are in favor of it. But very few are sufficiently concerned to switch parties over it, so until the Liberals allow a conscience vote, it has little chance of progressing.

    You would be better served by campaigning to get the Libs to change their position than niggling about what the ALP does or doesn’t do – that will not determine the outcome.

  37. confessions

    Read the article I posted from the monthly about the confusion.

    The commercial contracts may fail if it comes up against the rights of individuals. This is an area yet to be tested in a Court of Law.

    How far can the employer restrict the freedom of its employees to speak in public? Is twitter shouting in a public square and so beyond an employer’s reach or is it a rival publication that an employee needs to get permission for every word uttered on the platform?

  40. [It isn’t about being a bigot, he is being punished because he is right. We are in a ‘war’ with ISIS where we are ‘good’ and everyone in ISIS is evil and subhuman and worthy of extermination.

    We are also 100 years on from WW1 and in the process of glorifying it as a myth, without the inconvenient reminders of the ugly evilness of war. The SBS dude foolishly spoke truth to a nation in love with itself and its dual war and terrorism myths and not looking keen to wake up to reality of either any time soon.]

    Don’t always agree with WWP, but this is spot on.

    Might watch 7.30 for a change if Mike Carlton will be on regarding this issue.

  41. And thinking middle and longer term, a full conscience vote may or may not get up in this Parliament, a labor vote for SSM would mean that the legislation can pass next time there is a labor government and a senate that supports SSM.

    I can just see the greens voting against it on the basis that this labor ssm is worse than no ssm at all!

  42. guytaur:

    I’d love to see marriage equality become a reality in this country which is why I put pressure on the Liberals (including Sen. Smith) to change their party policy.

    Besides, they are the govt, which means that the wailing and handwringing about Labor’s non-binding vote ultimately means nothing if the ALP flips on that only to see an eventual vote fail in the HoR because the coalition with its majority can vote it down.

  44. P1
    [You would be better served by campaigning to get the Libs to change their position than niggling about what the ALP does or doesn’t do – that will not determine the outcome.]
    lol, I posted in response to zoomster re Anna Burke and SSM and passed no opinion on what Labor should do about SSM.

    As, someone said earlier today (JD?), “Labor is damned if they do and damned if they don’t.”

    You jumped in trying to score personal points and I have responded in good faith about what I understood re Labor’s party position.

  45. guytaur:

    Notwithstanding that McIntyre may well be within his rights to sue for wrongful dismissal, his use of his twitter account was a breach of the SBS social media policy. The policy even has a section on use of personal accounts.

  46. Pegasus @1761:

    So, the Deputy Labor Leader pushing for a binding vote on SSM is what’s wrecked the Liberal Party’s push toward a conscience vote in their own party?

    Pull the other one, Senator Smith – it has strings attached. I think he’s just making excuses over the fact that the current parliamentary Liberal Party could be there for 100 years, and they’d never agree. And they’re drifting further to the Right every election, at that.

  48. confessions

    Plibersek is getting Labor to maximise its vote. What the Liberals do is up to them. That is no excuse for Labor to not act on its policies.

    By doing this the public will know its the Liberals and only the Liberals standing in the way of equality. That way all the attacks will be on the Liberals.

    I think its win win for Labor myself.

  49. [until the Liberals allow a conscience vote, it has little chance of progressing.]

    SSM will not be enacted by the Libs allowing a conscience vote, which would release only a handful of votes.

    SSM will be enacted by the ALP making it a binding vote and pushing it through from government.

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