BludgerTrack: 52.2-47.8 to Labor

Two new polls take some of the edge off the Newspoll-driven movement to the Coalition in last week’s reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

With new results from Morgan and Essential Research added to the mix, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate records a slight move to Labor of 0.3% on two-party preferred. The main mover on the primary vote this week is the Greens, who got an unusually strong result from Essential Research. Evidence continues to accumulate that the Coalition’s recent recovery has been strongest in New South Wales and weakest in South Australia, although both are unchanged on the seat projection this week, with Labor’s two gains drawn from Victoria and Tasmania. Nothing new on leadership approval this week, and it seems likely we have a quiet week ahead of us due to the Anzac Day long weekend (UPDATE: Turns out that’s only true in some states, but it’s certainly the case that Newspoll won’t be polling this weekend).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,810 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.2-47.8 to Labor”

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  2. Boxing Day falls on the same day of the week as that year’s Anzac Day. So far, in spite of the usual grumblings, Christmas holidays falling on a weekend are allowed a holiday the following Monday.

  3. Good Morning

    The claims of PVO and like minded commentators that Labor is doing class warfare are undermined by the articles that Labor is fiddling at the margins.

    It probably has something to do with undoing Costello’s structural deficit and nothing to do with class warfare.

    As a comeback to those commentators I would point to the last budget and say “Thats not class warfare this is class warfare” (Best Paul Hogan imitation.)

  4. fess

    In England I am a monarchist. In Australia I am a republican. If Tony thinks he can win the approval of Royalty by crawling like that, he just makes himself look foolish.

  5. [Why didn’t he do it with his 6 Years in power including a couple of stints as Treasurer?]

    I think it was in his last budget but the liberals in the senate voted to protect the very rich. I tell you Chris Bowen might be a minor light in the labor firmament but he is brighter than the brightest liberal by far. How did you get so many dumb and morally bankrupt people into the one club without serious inbreding?

  6. [If Tony thinks he can win the approval of Royalty by crawling like that, he just makes himself look foolish.]

    He doesn’t think and pretty much everything he does makes him and our country look stupid, or worse stupid and racist, stupid and lazy.

  8. WWP

    Libs deliberately cultivate the memory of gnats. If they vote against something while in Oppn, they accuse Labor of ‘doing nothing about it’.

  13. Good. ALP taking the lead on ending tax rorts, and starting to look like they’re the government.

    Hockey left gasbagging uselessly.

    It the revenue, stupid. This negative gearing scam cant go on forever. Surely everyone know that. Its a clever approach to protect existing investors, but come on – talk about middle class welfare.

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/shadow-treasurer-chris-bowen-flags-labor-intention-to-wind-back-negative-gearing-20150422-1mqpu7.html

  15. victoria

    […kenny’s article header is how Labor should frame the super proposals.

    “Superannuation was designed to encourage people to save for retirement, not to allow the very wealthy to park their money out of reach of the taxman.”]

    Saw a bit on Sky this morning featuring Bowen and Shorten’s presser. That line was taken a couple of times.

    A Mordor journo asked wtte that considering the size of the problem that perhaps they should have gone in harder. Shorten or Bowen , forget which, had a nice opening line asking the journo if that was going to be their paper’s editorial line.

    Perhaps the Mordor media person was a bit worried that the current proposal is too reasonable will be hard to portray as scary ? 🙂

  17. Re Rowes cartoon linked by BK, who is in the coach.
    Shorten and Bowen are in green tights holding up a coach being driven by “no show Joe”.

  18. [”Stronger, fairer public finance.”]

    I like that, perhaps also:

    [ Labor: the only fair path to budget repair]

    [ Labor: the only fair path to saving Medicare]

    [ Labor: the only fair path to sustainable Education]

  19. poroti

    No doubt they would want Labor to go harder so they could whinge and moan about it. Having said that, any changes to negative gearing would be met with more widespread angst in my view. Even though any changes would not be retrospective

  20. WWP @68: that looks good. We could probably drop the word ‘fair’ from the second, and probably the third as well. “The only path to…”.

  21. There have been a few of these raids in WA in recent months. Very disturbing to think the use of illegal workers is more widespread than originally thought.

    [More than a dozen illegal immigrants have been rounded up as part of a major crackdown on foreign workers being used as cheap labour in WA’s building industry.

    The Immigration Department and Australian Federal Police carried out pre-dawn raids on four homes in Perth’s south-east this week, apprehending 12 Chinese nationals including a baby girl born in Australia while her parents were living and working here illegally.]
    https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/27280752/raid-nabs-foreign-building-wokers/

  22. In any event, BCassidy on JFaine seems to think that Labor are going in the right direction with super policy changes. Although he believes that the coalition will not in any shape or form take a bi partisan approach on it. Apparently CPyne was already posting mistruths on his facebook page re same

  23. The things I never knew 😆 😆

    [Girls at Al-Taqwa College have been banned from running at sporting events because the principal believes it may cause them to lose their virginity, former teachers claim.

    The schools regulator, the Victorian Registration and Qualifications Authority, is investigating the allegations, which have been referred to the state and federal education ministers.

    It follows revelations in The Age last month that the principal of the Islamic school, Omar Hallak, told students that Islamic State was a plot by Western countries.

    In a letter sent to the education ministers this week, a former teacher said female students were being discriminated against at the Truganina school.

    “The principal holds beliefs that if females run excessively, they may ‘lose their virginity’,” the letter said.

    “The principal believes that there is scientific evidence to indicate that if girls injure themselves, such as break their leg while playing soccer, it could render them infertile.”]

    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/girls-at-islamic-school-banned-from-running-teachers-claim-20150422-1mr0io.html

  24. lefty e

    A sample from the top of the Torygraph (UK) today . Very restrained compared to the feral ones that have become the norm lately. It’s been a wall of demonising Labor and the SNP.

    The tories and their camp followers must be crapping themselves over the result. The leader of the SNP has come in for particular attention.

    [Osborne: Every family in Britain would spend £350 propping up a Labour-SNP government]
    .
    [ BBC accused of left-wing ambush on Cameron over hostile Radio 1 interview ]
    .
    [Osborne interview: Ed Miliband and the SNP are ‘double trouble’ for the economy ]
    .
    [A strange disease is spreading, convincing the world Ed is our next PM ]

  25. [WWP @68: that looks good. We could probably drop the word ‘fair’ from the second, and probably the third as well. “The only path to…”.]

    Good point

    [Labor: the ONLY path to a real NBN]

  27. [News Corp hack Peter Van Onselen calls Labor’s super tax changes “nothing more than deliberate class warfare”.]

    LOL. The current super regs are the ‘class war’. Thanks so Costello.

    This is ending it, specifically, the wealthy not paying their fair share like everyone else, at the expense of the public purse in general.

  29. victoria

    [ Apparently CPyne was already posting mistruths on his facebook page re same]

    Scrott Morrison on an interview last night was pushing “it’s unfair” re the changes. Sobbing how they were going to affect “average” people and push more on to “welfare”.

    His weird logic being the $75,000 was about the average annual salary !!! Of course no mention of the mountain of $s behind that income.

  30. poroti

    I do hope that Labor are able to articulate these changes properly. I am surprised that the coaliion would not welcome a sensible and fair revenue stream. It is bloody nuts

  35. Comment back there about last night’s 7.30.
    Leigh with the claws out all right, not drawing any blood.
    Followed by Sabra’s exposition of all the good things that nice Ms Ley wants to do to Medicare.

  36. Labour has done well with the super policy changes, while only at the margins, being similar to the proposal when they were in government means they can use those coatings which reduces risk.
    Given the response and the media environment this is a good first step, it will now be up to Labor to argue this effectively and ensure it is not presented on the governments terms.
    Attacking the opposition is probably the one thing this government does well, and so this was the right policy.
    If Labor can win this it will be major step forward to winning the next election.

  37. victoria

    Shorten and Bowen had a good line re pension’s of how under Labor’s original 12.5% plan 50% of people would not be on a pension by 2050. But the LNP farked it up.

    When Joe was scaring us about the unsustainability of pensions and how they “had” to cut back the “scary numbers” were hilarious. On his figures the increase in the proportion of the GDP eaten up by pensions was (drum roll please) about 0.60% -0.7%

  40. Poroti @ 79

    [His weird logic being the $75,000 was about the average annual salary !!! Of course no mention of the mountain of $s behind that income.]

    In that case, why not subject the $75,000 to the same income tax as the average worker? Because after income tax the average worker does not get $75,000 to spend.

  41. The argument against a compensatory public holiday for Anzac Day falling on a weekend is that it detracts from the point of Anzac Day by turning it into just another day off.

    I have sympathy for this view.

  42. [Leigh with the claws out all right, not drawing any blood.
    Followed by Sabra’s exposition of all the good things that nice Ms Ley wants to do to Medicare.]

    Didn’t see the interview, but apparently it was in stark contrast to the gentle fireside chat with that lovely Ms Bishop.

    Leigh Sales certainly knows on which side her bread is buttered. The Leigh and Sabra half hour has turned into LNP propaganda central on steroids.

  45. [Leigh Sales certainly knows on which side her bread is buttered. The Leigh and Sabra half hour has turned into LNP propaganda central on steroids.]

    I didn’t watch the interview closely, but I got the overall sense that Bowen has stopped taking her seriously. He seemed to be laughing at her from time to time. Certainly, it has lost real sting.

  46. I’ve died and gone to heaven:

    West australian page 22 Alston cartoon tony knighting Phil the Greek. Opinion excellent opinion piece by Geoff warn calling for govt leadership in planning perth. Page 23 not one but two excellent articles one on barnett’s baubles and budget disaster and on taxis and uber! I should read this paper more often!

  47. WWP

    The editor must have taken a day off and left the apprentices in charge

    To be fair, the state political reporter Gareth Parker usually takes his chances to pot Barnett. I suppose he is on safe ground because even The West Australian’s Tory readers don’t like the Emporer much if polls are a guide.

  48. Yes, they’ll have to sell these super and negative gearing policies well – but my guess is the LNP will help them by being generally incompetent on their feet.

    Its on Hockey – there’s a reform agenda. How are you going to respond?

    Go for it. Jeez, the ALP is almost becoming a party with an agenda I could vote for.

    This stuff is a no-brainer really. Now we’ll see the LNP for who they really are” the lazy defenders of privilege, nasty bullies of less well off.

    The ALP should pitch this as everyone pitching in for a sustainable future, not just the poor, as Abbott would have it.

  49. BB

    If you are about. Took on board your recommendation and have now watched ABC doco lest we forget what. Brilliant. And the young Journo Kate is an absolute star. So engaging is her style

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