Three new polls this week, from Newspoll, Ipsos and Essential Research, all of them featuring leadership ratings as well as voting intention. As was widely noted, there was a big gap between the results from Newspoll and Ipsos, which has contributed to something of a two-track trend in polling, with one clump of results around 54-46 (Ipsos and ReachTEL) and another around 51-49 (two Newspolls and a bias-adjusted Roy Morgan). The middle ground plotted by BludgerTrack now has Labor’s two-party vote down to 51.9% – only a small change on last week, but enough to shift two seats on the seat projection, including one in New South Wales (which has done a lot of the heavy lifting in the recent Coalition poll recovery) and one in Victoria.
Leadership ratings are starting to look increasingly alarming for Bill Shorten, whose net approval has dropped a full 10% from the stasis it was in through most of 2014. Tony Abbott has now recovered to where he was before Australia Day, and while that’s still a bad position in absolute terms, the gap between himself and Shorten is rapidly narrowing. The same goes for preferred prime minister, on which Shorten’s double-digit lead after Australia Day has narrowed to about 3%.
Two polls warranting comment:
• I neglected to cover this on Tuesday, so let the record note that this week’s Essential Research result ticked a point in the Coalition’s favour on two-party preferred, putting Labor’s lead at 52-48. Primary votes were 41% for the Coalition (up one), 39% for Labor (steady), 10% for the Greens (steady) and 2% for Palmer United (steady). Also featured were monthly personal ratings, which found Tony Abbott up two on approval to 31% and down five on disapproval to 56%, Bill Shorten up one on both to 34% and 39%, and Shorten’s lead as preferred prime minister down from 39-31 to 37-33. Other questions related to asylum seekers, with 43% nominating that most were not genuine refugees versus 32% who said otherwise. However, a separate question found 49% allowing that asylum seekers arriving by boat should be allowed to stay if found to be genuine refugees. The government’s approach was deemed too tough by 22%, too soft by 27% and just right by 34%. In response to Jacqui Lambie and Glenn Lazarus leaving the Palmer United Party, 41% said those in their position should leave parliament and allow a new election to be held for their seat, with 19% favouring a new member nominated by the party and 24% saying they should be allowed to remain in parliament.
• Roy Morgan has published one of its semi-regular rounds of SMS state polling, finding the newly elected Coalition ahead by 54.5-45.5 in New South Wales, and Annastacia Palaszczuk’s newly elected Queensland government up by 52.5-47.5, after last month’s result and the weekend’s Galaxy poll both had it lineball. Labor governments are credited with leads of 54-46 in Victoria and 51-49 in South Australia, while it’s 50-50 in Western Australia. A 56-44 lead to Labor is recorded in Tasmania, which is more than a little hard to credit.
Preselection news:
• Murray Watt is set to win preselection for Labor’s Queensland Senate ticket after securing the endorsement of the Left faction at the expense of incumbent Jan McLucas, who entered parliament in 1999. Susan McDonald of the ABC reports that Watt’s position will likely be at the top of the ticket, reflecting the Left’s new-found ascendancy within the Queensland Labor organisation.
• It’s a similar story in the lower house Brisbane seat of Oxley, where Labor’s Bernie Ripoll has announced his retirement following reports he stood to lose preselection in any case to Milton Dick, Brisbane City Council opposition leader.
• Crikey’s Tips and Rumours section recently offered details on the Labor preselection in the marginal eastern Melbourne seat of Deakin, which has been won by Tony Clarke, manager of Vision Australia and unsuccessful state election candidate for Ringwood. His main opponent was Mike Symon, who won the seat for Labor in 2007 and 2010 before being unseated by current Liberal member Michael Sukkar in 2013. Symon narrowly defeated Clarke in the local party ballot, but this was overwhelmed by support for Clarke in the 50% of the vote determined by the state party’s Public Office Selection Committee. It was reported in Crikey that the Left abstained from the POSC vote, as it wished to let “the Right factions fight out between themselves”. For more on Deakin, see today’s Seat of the Week post.
Re Wayne Swan,
It was Cameron Milner who opened his mouth and had a go at the party during the height of the Billy Gordon affair.
He has a bee in his bonnet about getting done over for a Senate position, blames Swan and is shitty with everything atm.
In that Bourke article Milner goes on about it being time for more female reps however he was not real worried about that when he was trying for a senate seat.
As I stated above this is not the first time he has opened his mouth and if anyone deserves a serve it is him.
cheers all.
bemused
😆 I’m sure it would have been a fave of his. He listened to such propaganda and off he went. After Gallipoli came the even bigger slaughter in France. Not quite what was promised.
Recently there was an article in the NZ Herald with a Turkish guy who is now resident in NZ. He was a former diplomat and had studied quite a bit about the Gallipoli campaign. Quite an interesting look from their angle.
Turkey had ordered a couple of battleships from Britain before the war and were ready and due to be delivered shortly before WWI. A bit of bad timing. Churchill was a bit sus about the Turks and so blocked their delivery.
This cancellation caused a fire storm of anger in Turkey and very much pushed them into supporting the German alliance.
Turkish documents recorded how puzzled they were as to why a tiny country they had barely heard of from the other side of the world came to help invade Turkey. Don’t blame them on that point.
CTar1@1150
Yes, I have had a ride on them and used to see them regularly when I was posted to Richmond.
They seemed to be able to almost hover at times so must have had a very low stall speed.
Doyley
Can’t but agree with any of that but what real contribution does Swan think he can make.
Tanya I am sure does not need any help from Swan she has charm and talents well exceeding anything Swan could help her with.
BTW.
Interesting how posters jump on and accept a article from light weight Bourke as gospel when it suits their prejudice.
Big bad right winger Wayne Swan. Boo !
poroti@1152
Yes, it certainly had its bizarre aspects.
The Turks are very accommodating, but I feel a little embarrassed at the way Australia and Australians seem to think they have some sort of special right to trample all over the Gallipoli Peninsular and send flocks of bogans there on a regular basis.
We should be grateful to the Turks for their hospitality and do more to make that known.
Turkish people seem to have been very successful migrants in Australia and fitted in well while preserving key elements of their culture.
Doyley@1155
Who do you have in mind?
I think you have over-reacted.
bemused
After doing some Canberra to Williamtown legs on one I was always surprised that the ‘East Coast Courier Flight’ could make it from Pt Cook to Tovnsville and back in real time.
CTar1@1158
Lucky you! Most of my travel was by DC-3.
bemused
Once I was accompanied by an Atar engine for a Mirage. It was very cramped in the back.
The Caribou was a sturdy little beast.
I missed this by Lenore Taylor on friday. I am still pissed off
[The Abbott government found $4m for the climate contrarian Bjørn Lomborg to establish his “consensus centre” at an Australian university, even as it struggled to impose deep spending cuts on the higher education sector.
A spokesman for the education minister, Christopher Pyne, said the government was contributing $4m over four years to “bring the Copenhagen Consensus Center methodology to Australia” at a new centre in the University of Western Australia’s business school.
The spokesman said the “Australia Consensus Centre” was a proposal put forward by the “university and Dr Lomborg’s organisation”.]
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/apr/17/abbott-government-gives-4m-to-help-climate-sceptic-set-up-australian-centre?CMP=share_btn_tw
It’s pretty clear now the hatreds within Labor which were artificially suppressed post 2013 are now re-emerging as the Labor poll lead evaporates. That Wayne swan article is just a snap shot of the hatred, won’t be too long before someone goes public with the well known private club fed criticism of shorten.
Hatred? Milner’s the godfather to one of Swan’s children, I hardly think they’ve got a long standing hatred of each other. Milner’s just narky over missing out on the Senate seat. He’ll get over it.
You know you’re old when your friends start being linked to parliamentary seats.
[ hatreds within Labor which were artificially suppressed post 2013 are now re-emerging ]
No-where near as fast and hard as the ones in the Libs will re-emerge post Budget. 🙂
On Wayne Swan
I think it is time for him to move on, I don’t see him being a minister in any future government, maybe if the locals are happy with him then that would justify him staying but that is the only grounds which I can see.
He wasn’t that good a treasurer, despite Joe’s attempts at making him look good and I don’t think there are any other portfolios which suit him.
teh
Swan was godfather to one of Rudd’d kids (or vice versa) – Look how that turned out.
Edwina StJohn
All major political parties have these sorts of rivalries and differences of opinion so it isn’t anything to be surprised by or unexpected.
dtt – Swan and Rudd didn’t have a longstanding hatred either and their falling out was over the best interests of the Labor party, not internal politics (although I suppose it’s not saying too much to note that Swan was very unhappy with Rudd’s style of Prime Ministership).
Perhaps I have missed something but it seems to me that apart from his one ” Australian values ” moment Abbott has been pretty quiet in the aftermath of the Melbourne raids in comparison to earlier events.
Anyway, possibly the police involved in the raids may have been a tad over enthusiastic.
Nothing confirmed but it will be interesting what, if anything, comes to light in the coming days.
cheers.
Good lord. After dog knows how long have the “image consultants” finally caught on to how stupid and distracting the “noddies” behind speakers look ? Just watched news clips featuring Abbott , the Vic premier and ? . The people stationed behind the speakers were all non nodders.
Doyley
I reckon Abbott is busting at the seams to make any political mileage out of this latest incident. Most probably he has been instructed to stfu
Doyley
More likely the focus groups have told him he is not on a winner with any but the “2GB” demographic.
Strange line up for qanda
Coming Up – Monday, 20 April
Derryn Hinch – Journalist and media personality
Andrew Robb – Minister for Trade and Investment
Anna Burke – Former Speaker of the House
Dave Hughes – Comedian and Broadcaster
Jane Burns – CEO of the Young and Well Cooperative Research Centre
victoria
OMG. Which ego will dominate?
poroti
[The people stationed behind the speakers were all non nodders.]
It’s all very American.
Can not an Australian politician stand and talk to the press by themselves?
lizzie
Lol!
lizzie
I’m picking the “Human Headline”, it’s what he does for a living.
I was stunned at the array of flags behind the COAG team. Almost expected each one to carry a flag to the exit.
poroti
Tony Jones will be on his mettle.
CTar1
It has always baffled me as to why they feel the need to station people behind the speaker. Nodding or otherwise.
My current theory that it is to provide a distraction from what bullshit the pollie in the front is trying to push.
lizzie
I can see a cartoon with Abbott being the flagbearer using his red Speedos as the pouch to support the flagpole!
victoria, poroti
you are most probably spot on.
It is just that his response this time is so starkly different to previous episodes.
I must admit that when I heard of the raids the first thing I thought of was days of Abbott surrounded by flags and AFP brass giving daily updates and convening security meetings every ten minutes.
Very sad what Abbott does to ones perspective.
poroti
I’m sure Amanda Rishworth had to be moved in the Parliamentarian seating due to neck injury.
4corners tomorrow night re university education
http://www.abc.net.au/4corners/
lizzie
😆 When it come to the Human Headline and Jones’ egos battling it out on Q&A it will be…………….
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1tqxzWdKKu8
Vic, go Hughsey!
Doyley
the police have only one person in custody (holding him under anti terror laws) without charge. The last thing the authorities need is Abbott shooting his mouth off.
BK
Now why didn’t I think of that!!
poroti
But not so harmonious.
victoria,
perhaps that’s why Abbott was out on the drink over the week end !
victoria,
I meant to add that the police nay have been a bit aggressive with some family members as well but sometimes I hit post before my brain is finished!
dtt@1101:
CNS inflammatory pathogenesis is my primary research interest.
The bacterial toxins (botulinum, tetanus etc.) act through peripheral neuromuscular blockade, so headache is not a symptom. Aerosolization of weaponised anthrax (as in the domestic terrorism event in the US in 2001) is the only bacterial disease that is likely to cause these symptoms in these numbers.
My point was that (almost) all of the likely infective causes for such an outbreak are vector dependent (Marberg & mycobacterial disease being the exceptions), not person to person spread. The absence of reported fever and rash do not rule out rickettsiae, but the simultaneity of the episodes does. Unless this is something quite new (such as an encephalitic coronavirus), it’s toxic encephalitis, and thus not going to spread.
Things are going along swimmingly –
[Suicide blast kills 33 outside a bank in Afghanistan city of Jalalabad ]
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/apr/18/suicide-blast-kills-33-outside-a-bank-in-afghanistan-city-of-jalalabad
CTar1
[Things are going along swimmingly -]
Did a jaw drop watching a report on the bombing that Afghanistan is “turning to Pakistan” for support.
rhwombat
Your work sounds fascinating. I have always had a fascination with medical microbiology, probably due to excellent teaching at Sydney University.
I certainly hope it is not aerosolised Anthrax – now that would be a bit “doomsday” panic. Encephalitic coronavirus might have me back doing excel spread sheets just for GG. I could calculate the rate of spread in Greensborough, especially in a banking environment.
I accept that most of the obvious diseases are vector dependent, so you would not expect such sudden outbreaks.
How about some tetra methyl lead getting into food or alchohol?
Victoria
4Corners looks interesting, as a recent student I have felt that the the degree programs are weak, there have been times when it has felt more like glorified high school which just skims though concepts.
Knowing a few lecturers, I have heard various stories of the universities pressuring them to pass students even when they clearly don’t get the subject.
I will repeat what I have said previously, induce major assignments into each unit which carry as much weight as the exam and this should force the students to pay greater attention.
In many ways it is a pity as the learning material and lectures are interesting and well done.
The overseas full fee paying student market is certainly a big challenge for universities. Most of them are content to have low entry standards but reasonable marking standards, and just churn students through repeated failed subjects, but no doubt there are some that struggle to keep the financially well supported but severely academically challenged in class.
It is difficult to forecast how a student will perform at University, for example I have seen people who are brilliant at a subject but score poorly as the exams are structured to a template.
Exams are not a real test of intelligence but are rather a test of how well one can follow the textbook which seems to be pretty restrictive.
Doyley@1182
I don’t see any justification for breaking into family homes and terrorising parents and young kids when they are just after some misguided teenager.
Why not just have plain clothes cops quietly pick them up in the street or somewhere they meet?
Seems like maximum theatre to me.
doyley
No doubt Abbott’s minders thought it best to send him on a high school expedition and leave the grown up stuff to others. 😀