Three new polls this week, from Newspoll, Ipsos and Essential Research, all of them featuring leadership ratings as well as voting intention. As was widely noted, there was a big gap between the results from Newspoll and Ipsos, which has contributed to something of a two-track trend in polling, with one clump of results around 54-46 (Ipsos and ReachTEL) and another around 51-49 (two Newspolls and a bias-adjusted Roy Morgan). The middle ground plotted by BludgerTrack now has Labor’s two-party vote down to 51.9% – only a small change on last week, but enough to shift two seats on the seat projection, including one in New South Wales (which has done a lot of the heavy lifting in the recent Coalition poll recovery) and one in Victoria.
Leadership ratings are starting to look increasingly alarming for Bill Shorten, whose net approval has dropped a full 10% from the stasis it was in through most of 2014. Tony Abbott has now recovered to where he was before Australia Day, and while that’s still a bad position in absolute terms, the gap between himself and Shorten is rapidly narrowing. The same goes for preferred prime minister, on which Shorten’s double-digit lead after Australia Day has narrowed to about 3%.
Two polls warranting comment:
• I neglected to cover this on Tuesday, so let the record note that this week’s Essential Research result ticked a point in the Coalition’s favour on two-party preferred, putting Labor’s lead at 52-48. Primary votes were 41% for the Coalition (up one), 39% for Labor (steady), 10% for the Greens (steady) and 2% for Palmer United (steady). Also featured were monthly personal ratings, which found Tony Abbott up two on approval to 31% and down five on disapproval to 56%, Bill Shorten up one on both to 34% and 39%, and Shorten’s lead as preferred prime minister down from 39-31 to 37-33. Other questions related to asylum seekers, with 43% nominating that most were not genuine refugees versus 32% who said otherwise. However, a separate question found 49% allowing that asylum seekers arriving by boat should be allowed to stay if found to be genuine refugees. The government’s approach was deemed too tough by 22%, too soft by 27% and just right by 34%. In response to Jacqui Lambie and Glenn Lazarus leaving the Palmer United Party, 41% said those in their position should leave parliament and allow a new election to be held for their seat, with 19% favouring a new member nominated by the party and 24% saying they should be allowed to remain in parliament.
• Roy Morgan has published one of its semi-regular rounds of SMS state polling, finding the newly elected Coalition ahead by 54.5-45.5 in New South Wales, and Annastacia Palaszczuk’s newly elected Queensland government up by 52.5-47.5, after last month’s result and the weekend’s Galaxy poll both had it lineball. Labor governments are credited with leads of 54-46 in Victoria and 51-49 in South Australia, while it’s 50-50 in Western Australia. A 56-44 lead to Labor is recorded in Tasmania, which is more than a little hard to credit.
Preselection news:
• Murray Watt is set to win preselection for Labor’s Queensland Senate ticket after securing the endorsement of the Left faction at the expense of incumbent Jan McLucas, who entered parliament in 1999. Susan McDonald of the ABC reports that Watt’s position will likely be at the top of the ticket, reflecting the Left’s new-found ascendancy within the Queensland Labor organisation.
• It’s a similar story in the lower house Brisbane seat of Oxley, where Labor’s Bernie Ripoll has announced his retirement following reports he stood to lose preselection in any case to Milton Dick, Brisbane City Council opposition leader.
• Crikey’s Tips and Rumours section recently offered details on the Labor preselection in the marginal eastern Melbourne seat of Deakin, which has been won by Tony Clarke, manager of Vision Australia and unsuccessful state election candidate for Ringwood. His main opponent was Mike Symon, who won the seat for Labor in 2007 and 2010 before being unseated by current Liberal member Michael Sukkar in 2013. Symon narrowly defeated Clarke in the local party ballot, but this was overwhelmed by support for Clarke in the 50% of the vote determined by the state party’s Public Office Selection Committee. It was reported in Crikey that the Left abstained from the POSC vote, as it wished to let “the Right factions fight out between themselves”. For more on Deakin, see today’s Seat of the Week post.
bemused
Saw coverage of one home and there were a couple of large smashed holes in the front windows. Looked a bit of overkill to me.
As you said “maximum theatre” for what was involved.
mb
I will watch 4 corners with interest as well
poroti@1201
I can’t help but see it as counter-productive.
A low key, even friendly approach to ‘invite’ the young fellow in for a chat with the police, with supportive Islamic community leaders or clerics in attendance would, IMHO, work much better.
But I don’t think that is what some of this is about.
Latest report on the Melbourne raids
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/melbourne-raids-police-to-investigate-complaint-from-aboriginal-teens-family-20150419-1mof8q.html
bemused
I’m sure all gubby mandarins will naturally be keen to increase their budgets. The “security” chappies will be no different.
I have heard of Swan, and Plibersek, but who are the rest of these people, and why do they command front page prominence in the SMH?
[Wayne Swan’s decision to renominate for another term in Parliament has sparked fear amongst his colleagues about his leadership intentions and prompted one long-time supporter to publicly call for the former Treasurer’s immediate resignation.
Several Labor insiders have told Fairfax Media they fear Mr Swan is attempting to engineer his own return to the frontbench as well as helping install Tanya Plibersek as leader in the long term.
Labor sources accused Mr Swan and Milton Dick of working to oust long-serving member Bernie Ripoll from his seat of Oxley.
Mr Swan also recently supported former ALP state secretary Anthony Chisholm instead of his long-time friend and Labor strategist Cameron Milner for the Senate vacancy caused by Joe Ludwig’s retirement.
This has led to a falling out between Mr Milner and Mr Swan, who is godfather to one of Mr Milner’s children. ]
[ The overseas full fee paying student market is certainly a big challenge for universities. ]
I work directly with academics who are marking work from both domestic and international students. Most of them dont have any difficulty failing internationals who deserve it, although they will sometimes give them a bit of extra attention to try and get them to put in the effort they need to and give them a heads up them if they are behind the curve.
There is a sense of entitlement though from some international students that can make things occasionally uncomfortable.
imacca@1207
When I did a bit of sessional work at a university, the thing that upset me was that I had students who I knew were doomed to fail because their English was so poor they could not really understand lectures. They should never have been admitted.
[ I knew were doomed to fail because their English was so poor they could not really understand lectures. ]
I may get a skewed view in my workplace. Its science, biology, marine studies, rather than economics, business or anything like that. Have seen some people come through who have issues with conversational English (and out accents 🙁 ), but their reading comprehension is quite good on technical matters.
Probably the worst batch of undergrads we had in my area once were some seriously self entitled kiddies from the US. They flunked.
This Gallipolli overkill by the MSM is making me wish that the next week flies quickly. I just don’t get the adoration of a humiliating defeat.
War is a very bad thing. My grandfather was mustard gased on the Eastern Front, and lived with diseased lungs until he died aged 59. His family’s price for his service was to be exiled from their lands confiscated by Communists. A welcoming West took them in as refugees.
[ This Gallipolli overkill by the MSM is making me wish that the next week flies quickly. ]
To me its something i have been interested in a long time. I’d like to visit there someday, but not on one of the anniversaries.
The “overkill” with the coverage is making me very uncomfortable. We do seem to be going beyond recognition and well into unjustified glorification.
imacca@1211
There was a time when I thought I might like to visit Gallipoli, but not any more and certainly not on ANZAC day. Reports a few years ago turned me right off, with it being depicted as being boganised. The worst aspects are not seen on TV of course as it concentrates on the ceremony.
Maybe I judge it too harshly.
Saw this on twitter. It seems that Shorten was asked about Abbott skulling a glass of beer
[GregBarila
Hang on, did @billshortenmp actually kind of land a zinger? “I’m glad Tony Abbott is learning to drink beer without lemonade in it” #Auspol]
victoria@1213
I saw it myself on ABC news.
Sad to say I didn’t think it made bill look good.
It seems PUP is unravelling on steroids. Can’t see this behaviour being attractive to any prospective candidates.
[Palmer United Party defector Senator Glenn Lazarus is facing a defamation suit from Clive Palmer.
SENATOR Lazarus, who quit the party in March told Fairfax Media, that Mr Palmer had considered folding his party in exchange for ministerial positions within the coalition government for his two remaining senators Zhenya (Dio) Wang and Lazarus.
PUP national director Peter Burke denied the allegations saying they were designed to damage the party.
“I would expect more from a great Australian sportsman,” he said in a statement on Sunday.
He confirmed defamation proceedings would be launched against Senator Lazarus.
“The reason Senator Lazarus makes these accusations is because his wife Tess was sacked by the party,” Mr Burke said, adding that she had been dismissed for spending her time writing speeches and questions for her husband instead of working on agreed party duties.
The party is also suing Senator Lazarus and fellow defector Jacqui Lambie for the millions of dollars it spent on getting them elected to parliament.
]
It seems PUP is unravelling on steroids. Can’t see this behaviour being attractive to any prospective candidates.
[Palmer United Party defector Senator Glenn Lazarus is facing a defamation suit from Clive Palmer.
SENATOR Lazarus, who quit the party in March told Fairfax Media, that Mr Palmer had considered folding his party in exchange for ministerial positions within the coalition government for his two remaining senators Zhenya (Dio) Wang and Lazarus.
PUP national director Peter Burke denied the allegations saying they were designed to damage the party.
“I would expect more from a great Australian sportsman,” he said in a statement on Sunday.
He confirmed defamation proceedings would be launched against Senator Lazarus.
“The reason Senator Lazarus makes these accusations is because his wife Tess was sacked by the party,” Mr Burke said, adding that she had been dismissed for spending her time writing speeches and questions for her husband instead of working on agreed party duties.
The party is also suing Senator Lazarus and fellow defector Jacqui Lambie for the millions of dollars it spent on getting them elected to parliament.
]
bemused
[Sad to say I didn’t think it made bill look good.]
Especially as one of the panics de jour at the mo is binge drinking and the associated “alcohol fuelled violence” .
I don’t think anybody seriously believes PUP isn’t finished, even Clive
It will be a double change, when Abbott goes later this year so will shorten.
Phil Coorey sheets the blame for the budget’s structural deficit at Howard/Costello and slams Abbott’s intellectual dishonesty.
http://www.afr.com/opinion/columnists/some-brutal-budget-honesty-might-go-a-long-way-for-abbott-20150417-1mkgll
More great work from Mark David!
Once upon a time, I could down a pint in under 4 seconds and on one particular night drank 3 pints in 5 minutes.
These days, a 6 pack per week nearly kills me.
But, as a very famous man once said “delicious beer, eases the pain”.
Said very famous man also said;
“I used to rock and roll all day, and party every night, now, I’m lucky if I can find half an hour each week within which to get funky, it’s time to get out of this rut, and BACK INTO THE GROOVE”.
TrueBlueArseflap is correct regarding Doctor Karl.
Poor man has been treated in an absolutely disgraceful fashion by those whose political affiliation and sense of morality is probably very similar to his own.
BK
It’s a bit cute of Coorey to be calling out Abbott, Hockey and co for their dishonesty in opposition.
What was he writing about them at the time?
No need to answer …
poroti
[Posted Sunday, April 19, 2015 at 8:46 pm | PERMALINK
bemused
Sad to say I didn’t think it made bill look good.
Especially as one of the panics de jour at the mo is binge drinking and the associated “alcohol fuelled violence” .]
I reckon Shorten was actually negating Abbott’s attempt to project an image of being one of the macho boys. Kind of clever in retrospect
1226
I don`t think the footage they showed on the ABC News, from just after that comment, of Shorten saying to the laughing journalist, that the laughing made it hard to keep a straight face, did Shorten much good.
Latest on terror plot
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/terror-plot-teenagers-linked-to-top-islamic-state-recruiter-abu-khalid-alkambodi-20150419-1mock5.html
victoria@1228
I remain sceptical.
The LNP propose measures to restrict access to childcare.
State support for childcare is an excellent example of how a social income program enables members of households to increase their market incomes and/or undertake studies, enabling them to improve their human capital and eventually raise the quality of their workforce participation and add to the household market incomes.
Reducing support for childcare has immediate and long term repressive effects on the economy. It is one of the more idiotic cuts a Government can make.
Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor in South Australia.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/04/20/newspoll-54-46-to-labor-in-south-australia/
[ Shorten saying to the laughing journalist, that the laughing made it hard to keep a straight face, did Shorten much good. ]
Yah. There are many who will jump on anything Shorten does or says and try to blow it up into the “final nail” type of thing. Its all bollocks, like the Wayne Swan ALP leadersh$t thing. Anything Shorten says even being reported is so much in contrast to Abbott’s and his cronies gaffe a week behavior that everyone seems so used to its strange.
Abbot says something stupid: Meh, situation normal.
Shorten comments on anything: Wow, thats his career over and the ALP consigned to opposition for the rest of the millennium.
Will be interesting to see the tone of the reporting about 4 weeks after the Budget. 🙂
1232
I do not think it is the end of his career. I just think it did not look good.
You know, will be interesting to see what happens post budget to Liberal polling IF the current polling is underpinned by an assumption that the Libs will dump Abbott and Hockey before the next election.
If they bring in their budget and all the rhetoric is about “staying the course”, “tough but necessary reform” and they decide to keep those clowns in place longer, what depths may be plumbed for Liberal TPP??
1234
One could play devil`s advocate and say that the biggest polling trouble Abbott had was when it was looking like he might soon to be replaced and then improved when that threat went away.
Briefly @1230:
[The LNP propose measures to restrict access to childcare.
State support for childcare is an excellent example of how a social income program enables members of households to increase their market incomes and/or undertake studies, enabling them to improve their human capital and eventually raise the quality of their workforce participation and add to the household market incomes.
Reducing support for childcare has immediate and long term repressive effects on the economy. It is one of the more idiotic cuts a Government can make.]
You mean along with the cuts to education, healthcare and science funding the Abbott Government’s tried to get through?
But leave the multinationals alone – they’re special snowflakes!
And the sheer macro-stupidity of cutting childcare access simply obscures the micro-stupidity of it – for many single parents with young kids, the only way they can work is because they have childcare to look after their kids while they’re on shift!
How many more would be forced onto (and then off of) the welfare rolls by this stupid policy? How many single parents would see skill atrophy strike them, becoming long-term unemployed because they couldn’t work while their kids were too young to go to school?
Delia Lawrie does her finest work for the ALP by resigning:
[“The news that the CLP were referring the Stella Maris [inquiry] to the Director of Public Prosecution and the police makes me want to focus my mind with my legal team.]
Preferably a new legal team as the first one caused her so many problems.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
Judith Ireland is unimpressed with Prime Ministerial beer swilling.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/why-tony-abbotts-skol-doesnt-sit-quite-right-20150419-1mobju.html
“View from the Street” looks at binge drinking, PUP and Senate changes.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/view-from-the-street/view-from-the-street-pm-reminds-nation-that-binge-drinking-is-heaps-cool-20150419-1mo4mm.html
Australia’s credibility on CC action is getting increased international opprobrium.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/china-and-other-big-emitters-challenge-australia-over-its-climate-change-policies-20150419-1mnqt3.html
How can Hockey stand there and sprout this unabashed lie?
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/treasurer-joe-hockey-refuses-to-set-surplus-date-as-economy-struggles-20150419-1mo8pn.html
Leyonhjelm has the strangest of principles! He’d do well in some US states.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/having-children-is-a-personal-choice-that-shouldnt-be-subsidised-says-david-leyonhjelm-20150419-1mo66n.html
Gareth Hutchens exposes the duplicity of Apple in Australia.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/apple-australia-denies-double-irish-with-dutch-sandwich-tax-avoidance-20150419-1modsj.html
How can one get one’s head around this and the like? I can’t.
http://www.smh.com.au/world/islamic-state-video-purported-to-show-killing-of-ethiopian-christians-20150419-1mojnj.html
OK, that’s vaccinations and religion sorted. What next shall we do as a nation to overcome mediaeval protections?
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/abbott-government-closes-religious-loophole-for-childrens-vaccinations-20150419-1mo4rv.html
George Williams wonders whether our anti-terrorism laws are working or not. An interesting essay.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/weekend-raids-raise-questions-about-counterterrorism-laws-20150419-1mo51z.html
Tomorrow the banking industry will front the Senate inquiry into the financial planning industry and can expect a hard time. One to watch.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/legal-threat-to-banks-over-financial-advice-20150419-1mnfjx.html
Section 2 . . .
Antarctic ice is now melting faster than ever. Will Abbott come up with a contrarian point of view?
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/shrinking-antarctic-has-us-skating-on-thin-ice-20150419-1mmvh4.html
News Ltd will outdo Woolworths when it comes to exploiting the ANZACs.
https://newmatilda.com/2015/04/19/anzac-business-lest-we-forget-how-exploit-atrocity-all-it-worth
Serves them right!
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/more-private-schools-offer-fee-discounts-to-attract-students-in-victoria-20150419-1mnku9.html
A very good article on how the events of the Royal Commission into child sexual abuse has emboldened the public to force transparency onto institutions formerly protected by their “standing” in societies of the time.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/society-putting-child-safety-first-as-schools-forced-to-reveal-alleged-sex-abuse-20150419-1mmadc.html
John Spooner at the table as manufacturing policy is discussed.
Mark Knight ponders what the ANZACs fought for.
David Rowe introduces beer partisanship.
There are precious few new cartoons from Fairfax today! Bit here are a few to click through.
http://www.theage.com.au/photogallery/victoria/cartoons-for-monday-april-20-2015-20150419-1mogya.html
Morning all. Thanks BK. Not exactly a feast of new policy ideas in the papers today. The clampdown on people evading vaccinating their kids is about the only thing the government has done that makes sense lately. The rest of it all feels like groundhog day, where Joe Hockey and Tony Abbott said something dishonest and/or stupid the day before.
With the budget nearly on us, and a desperate need for the Liberals to act, they have ruled more things out than in. So what are they actually going to do? Rely on luck?
After his reign as PM is over one thing they will not call Tony Abbott is “the reformer”.
Seeing Shellbell’s comment on NT politics what an appalling own goal by Labor in opposition. Combined with presidents running off to Iraq, it does not look good. They are obviously planning to stay in opposition for some time.
It is a pity because I think there is much in NT politics that needs scrutiny on the government side. It is a boom town, and a lot of development is being approved, and a lot of money being made. But where is it all going? House and land prices are obscenely high, and tenants have few rights. The potential for Bjelke Petersen style corruption is very high.
I take it the new GQ is out today? Might be the first time in many years I buy a magazine
Excellent piece on the unequal treatment of women, by Jimmy Carter.
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/losing-my-religion-for-equality-20090714-dk0v.html
I wonder what Tony’s response to this will be? It seems that Mesma has already said ‘so what?’.
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/china-and-other-big-emitters-challenge-australia-over-its-climate-change-policies-20150419-1mnqt3.html
morning all
You know things are crook when Abbott skolling a beer is bad for Bill Shorten. geez!!
victoria
I thought it was nice to see Shorten sharing a joke with the journo. Laughing, relaxed Bill.
Victoria
At last we have found a people skill Abbott does possess. He can drink with them. I think the positive reaction is due to the relief at finding one. Have a good day all.
sprocket_
Posted Sunday, April 19, 2015 at 8:04 pm | PERMALINK
This Gallipolli overkill by the MSM is making me wish that the next week flies quickly. I just don’t get the adoration of a humiliating defeat.
Same here my grandfather fought there came home with a bullet in the head causing huge problems with the family evidently.He died when I was 2 1/2
I had been to Gallopili well before the problems and political grandstanding of latter years. Talked to the Australian Ambassador of the time who was checking out for the 25th. A huge bushfire had been through the hills and was told it just looked like it was in 1915. I also picked up bullet casings ,pressed a poppy(was just before Anzac Day) and smuggled home an acorn. The most moving for me was Ataturk’s promise to the mothers of the Anzacs, the trenches not touched at that stage and looking up from Anzac Cove where they landed
RIP all of them including the Turkish soldiers
The original Anzac Day is far enough back in time to be a sentimental occasion.
Most of the soldiers went there naively believing that it would be a doddle.
I doubt whether one of them would EVER hanker after it as a wonderful time of their lives. They’d probably warn all future generations to never glorify war, never to think it was exciting or honourable… it was just a filthy, bloody mess where our young men killed their young men, lived and died in squalor and did things that would haunt them to the day they died.
To see “Camp Gallipoli”, Woolies’ “Fresh” campaign, the movie festivals, the sheer jingoism that we put on it today would turn them in their graves.
Well may we say “Lest We Forget”, because we have remembered all the wrong things, and learnt very little.
To see Abbott – a migrant, and a cowardly son of a coward – making like a dinky-di Aussie is all the more sickening.
Gallipoli was a disaster, and should only ever be remembered as one.