BludgerTrack: 51.9-48.1 to Labor

Another slight narrowing of Labor’s two-party lead on the poll aggregate, which also finds increasingly worrisome personal ratings for Bill Shorten.

Three new polls this week, from Newspoll, Ipsos and Essential Research, all of them featuring leadership ratings as well as voting intention. As was widely noted, there was a big gap between the results from Newspoll and Ipsos, which has contributed to something of a two-track trend in polling, with one clump of results around 54-46 (Ipsos and ReachTEL) and another around 51-49 (two Newspolls and a bias-adjusted Roy Morgan). The middle ground plotted by BludgerTrack now has Labor’s two-party vote down to 51.9% – only a small change on last week, but enough to shift two seats on the seat projection, including one in New South Wales (which has done a lot of the heavy lifting in the recent Coalition poll recovery) and one in Victoria.

Leadership ratings are starting to look increasingly alarming for Bill Shorten, whose net approval has dropped a full 10% from the stasis it was in through most of 2014. Tony Abbott has now recovered to where he was before Australia Day, and while that’s still a bad position in absolute terms, the gap between himself and Shorten is rapidly narrowing. The same goes for preferred prime minister, on which Shorten’s double-digit lead after Australia Day has narrowed to about 3%.

Two polls warranting comment:

• I neglected to cover this on Tuesday, so let the record note that this week’s Essential Research result ticked a point in the Coalition’s favour on two-party preferred, putting Labor’s lead at 52-48. Primary votes were 41% for the Coalition (up one), 39% for Labor (steady), 10% for the Greens (steady) and 2% for Palmer United (steady). Also featured were monthly personal ratings, which found Tony Abbott up two on approval to 31% and down five on disapproval to 56%, Bill Shorten up one on both to 34% and 39%, and Shorten’s lead as preferred prime minister down from 39-31 to 37-33. Other questions related to asylum seekers, with 43% nominating that most were not genuine refugees versus 32% who said otherwise. However, a separate question found 49% allowing that asylum seekers arriving by boat should be allowed to stay if found to be genuine refugees. The government’s approach was deemed too tough by 22%, too soft by 27% and just right by 34%. In response to Jacqui Lambie and Glenn Lazarus leaving the Palmer United Party, 41% said those in their position should leave parliament and allow a new election to be held for their seat, with 19% favouring a new member nominated by the party and 24% saying they should be allowed to remain in parliament.

• Roy Morgan has published one of its semi-regular rounds of SMS state polling, finding the newly elected Coalition ahead by 54.5-45.5 in New South Wales, and Annastacia Palaszczuk’s newly elected Queensland government up by 52.5-47.5, after last month’s result and the weekend’s Galaxy poll both had it lineball. Labor governments are credited with leads of 54-46 in Victoria and 51-49 in South Australia, while it’s 50-50 in Western Australia. A 56-44 lead to Labor is recorded in Tasmania, which is more than a little hard to credit.

Preselection news:

• Murray Watt is set to win preselection for Labor’s Queensland Senate ticket after securing the endorsement of the Left faction at the expense of incumbent Jan McLucas, who entered parliament in 1999. Susan McDonald of the ABC reports that Watt’s position will likely be at the top of the ticket, reflecting the Left’s new-found ascendancy within the Queensland Labor organisation.

• It’s a similar story in the lower house Brisbane seat of Oxley, where Labor’s Bernie Ripoll has announced his retirement following reports he stood to lose preselection in any case to Milton Dick, Brisbane City Council opposition leader.

• Crikey’s Tips and Rumours section recently offered details on the Labor preselection in the marginal eastern Melbourne seat of Deakin, which has been won by Tony Clarke, manager of Vision Australia and unsuccessful state election candidate for Ringwood. His main opponent was Mike Symon, who won the seat for Labor in 2007 and 2010 before being unseated by current Liberal member Michael Sukkar in 2013. Symon narrowly defeated Clarke in the local party ballot, but this was overwhelmed by support for Clarke in the 50% of the vote determined by the state party’s Public Office Selection Committee. It was reported in Crikey that the Left abstained from the POSC vote, as it wished to let “the Right factions fight out between themselves”. For more on Deakin, see today’s Seat of the Week post.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,367 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.9-48.1 to Labor”

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  3. Budget emergency? What Budget emergency?

    But can we believe the Lying Friar this time?

    [
    TONY Abbott has ruled out any changes to superannuation in this term of government or beyond, allaying fears self-funded retirees would be in the sights of federal Cabinet’s razor gang.

    The Prime Minister yesterday killed off any plans to go after high-income earners over super tax concessions following suggestions the government was considering changes in the Budget.

    Treasurer Joe Hockey has recently called for bipartisan support for a review of the tax concession arrangements for super contributions for high-income earners.]

    cf DailyToiletPaper PMO propaganda sheet

  4. This will teach me to get up too early! From previous thread.

    Good morning Dawn Patrollers,

    Peter Costello’s five most profligate decisions that have left us with a serious structural deficit.
    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/apr/15/peter-costellos-five-most-profligate-decisions-as-treasurer-cost-the-budget-56bn-a-year
    Maybe she’s not that lily white after all.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/phone-taps-the-source-of-cunneen-investigation-20150415-1mlvwi.html
    Go for it with my blessing ATO.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/one-in-three-rich-people-and-private-companies-targeted-by-ato-20150415-1mlp8r.html
    And the same goes for this rort.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/stop-rich-from-using-negative-gearing-to-offset-wages-save-1b-acoss-20150415-1mlio1.html
    Now THAT’s a Google tax!
    http://www.smh.com.au/digital-life/consumer-security/google-charged-with-market-abuse-by-european-union-20150415-1mlzgj.html
    Things are not shaping up well for the public hospital system.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/ama-warns-of-hospital-funding-perfect-storm-that-will-lengthen-waiting-lists-20150415-1mlsn1.html
    And this is not going to help either.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/doctors-lash-out-at-mental-health-commission-push-to-shift-funding-from-hospitals-20150415-1mlrsa.html
    Your taxes (and politicians) at work.
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/public-service/aps-department-orders-report-to-be-rewritten-16-times-20150415-1mki3m.html
    Is Macfarlane’s ego affecting his judgement on the RET?
    http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2015/4/15/policy-politics/macfarlanes-judgement-questioned-ret-fallout-spreads
    Perth Glory gets slammed with a third breach notice.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/sport/2015/04/15/ffa-hit-glory-third-breach-notice/

  5. Section 2 . . .

    You’d never guess her political association!
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/waverley-mayor-sally-betts-under-fire-for-victim-blaming-program-20150415-1mluen.html
    Adele Ferguson (a really good journalist IMHO) further examines the culture of the NAB.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/more-questions-over-nab-culture-after-huge-clydesdale-fine-20150415-1mlf99.html
    More horrible revelations at the Royal Commission. Is there no end?
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/apr/15/girl-was-gang-raped-in-orphanage-and-gave-birth-at-14-abuse-inquiry-hears
    Abbott channels Sarah Palin – Drill, baby, drill!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/marine-sanctuaries-face-new-mining-threat-after-permits-issued-for-petroleum-exploration-20150415-1mlvge.html
    Will a two tier company tax rate bring about a spate of corporate restructures to bring sub-entities’ earnings into the lower bracket?
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/company-tax-cut-for-some-fuels-uncertainty-for-others-20150415-1mlst4.html
    A pointed warning on how vested interests are circling Abbott’s medical research fund.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/vested-interests-circling-medical-research-fund-like-sharks-warns-former-nhmrc-boss-warwick-anderson-20150415-1mlnzz.html
    The story of the negotiations to finalise the EastWest Link negotiations.
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/east-west-link-deal-months-in-the-making-20150415-1mlx67.html
    Annastacia kicks a political goal by sacking Gordon and leaps ahead in the polls.
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/apr/15/palaszczuks-call-to-expell-billy-gordon-powers-labor-ahead-in-latest-poll
    We will hear today of the outcomes from the lockout laws in Sydney.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/lockout-laws-have-reduced-numbers-hospitalised-due-to-alcoholrelated-violence-20150415-1mlliy.html
    Max the Axe’s genes are well and truly still in the Sydney Airport.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/sydney-airport-refuses-labor-billboard-attacking-corporate-tax-dodgers-20150415-1mll9j.html

  6. Section 3 . . .

    Australia is not a good place for shopping according to the latest Deutsche Bank study.
    http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/apr/15/mapping-prices-survey-shows-cheapest-places-for-goods-and-services
    “View from the Street” gets stuck into Woolworths’ “Fresh in our memories” debacle.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/view-from-the-street/view-from-the-street-war-is-hell-and-supermarket-social-media-share-20150415-1mls2f.html
    Shorten has little incentive to change his tactic of laying low and letting the government muck things up.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/view-from-the-street/view-from-the-street-war-is-hell-and-supermarket-social-media-share-20150415-1mls2f.html
    Alan Moir suggests Hockey’s willingness to act on corporate tax avoidance is questionable.

    John Spooner nails he TPP.

    Great work from David Pope on Dr Karl’s moment of realisation that he’d been sucker played.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/david-pope-20141123-1t3j0.html
    Mark Knight and some EastWest carnage.

    David Rowe takes Woolworths into the trenches.
    http://www.afr.com/content/dam/images/1/m/l/r/o/5/image.imgtype.galleryLand

  9. Morning all. And thanks again BK 🙂

    I just changed channel from ABC to stop seeing Virginia Trioli desperately harangue Andrews over the EW Link decision. She should resign and seek Liberal Party pre-selection.

    In the budget run up there are some interesting tax ideas floating around. I think this is a good one.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-04-15/empty-building-tax-to-be-considered-by-sa-government/6395290

    Deregulating new car importing is also a good idea, provided they meet an appropriate design standard. European or Japanese for LHD vehicles are the obvious choice.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-04-16/cabinet-considers-lifting-import-restrictions-on-new-cars/6396048

    Have a good day all.

  12. Morning everyone. Extremely busy times for me these days so am just flashing by before I have to start the day.

    Interesting to see the Treasurer Costello years start to be seriously called out for the wasted opportunity they represented. Brings to mind whoever said recently about the Abbott govt’s only real achievement being to crash down the perception of Liberal governments being strong economic managers.

  15. victoria:

    It’s just crazy busy at the moment. No idea why, but am looking forward to a couple of days off next week. 🙂

  16. [ sprocket_
    Posted Thursday, April 16, 2015 at 7:32 am | Permalink

    From DT –

    The Prime Minister yesterday killed off any plans to go after high-income earners over super tax concessions following suggestions the government was considering changes in the Budget. ]

    So abbott & hockey said they wouldn’t rule anything in or out in the so called ‘mature’ discussion regarding their tax review.

    Now abbott rules out withdrawing huge tax expenditures awarded to the rich regarding super.

    Hockey also recently ruled out any changes to the GST.

    No real moves to make companies pay appropriate tax in Australia either.

    Yet again their lips were moving.

  17. Mistyping –

    [ Hockey also recently ruled out any changes to the GST. ]

    Hockey also recently ruled out any changes to negative gearing.

  20. There are some ‘smart’ people out there –

    [ A Canadian woman who had declined to have her children immunised against pertussis, better known as whooping cough, has changed her position now that all seven of her children have come down with the disease.

    Yes, Tara Hills was stuck in isolation at her Ottawa home for more than a week with her sick children and her regrets about refusing to vaccinate them against the highly contagious respiratory disease.

    …The Hills children completed a course of antibiotics and were released from isolation on Tuesday.

    …”I set out to prove that we were right,” Hills said in an interview with The Washington Post, “and in the process found out how wrong we were.” ]

    http://www.smh.com.au/world/antivaccination-mother-tara-hills-seven-children-come-down-with-whooping-cough-20150415-1mm0za.html

  23. So Jamie Briggs is looking at owner import of new cars.

    The wealthy burghers of the Adelaide Hills arcing up at paying a premium for their Mercs, BMWs and Audis?

    But he say the dealers don’t need to worry, they can still make money on servicing. I bet they are thrilled with that.

  24. The Howard-Costello budgetary strategy seems to have been deliberate and right out of the US Republican playbook: defund the central Government and transfer wealth and income from the public sector to the corporates and the wealthy.

    They used boom times to cover their steps. It must have been blindingly obvious to them that when the boom ended, as booms always do, a future Government would have been forced into some combination of huge deficits, increased taxes and deep spending cuts. In particular, a future Labor Government would have been greatly constrained in the sort of programs that it could fund. Meanwhile, a future conservative Government could claim a ‘crisis’ in spending on things they don’t like, for example welfare, (public) education, Medicare and public health.

    To make up the numbers to vote for this program, add a few sweeteners for the ‘aspirationals’ and the conservative base and of course reach for the dog whistle.

  25. According to Wiki:

    Karl Kruszelnicki holds 2 bachelor, 1 masters, a doctorate and is currently working on a 2nd masters degree.

    None of these qualifications relate to beauty therapy or naturopathy.

    Any of the Bludger’s who have been so quick to judge the man’s supposed lack of political nous hold 5 tertiary qualifications?

    Nope?

    Didn’t think so…

  27. [procket_
    Posted Thursday, April 16, 2015 at 7:32 am | Permalink

    From DT –

    The Prime Minister yesterday killed off any plans to go after high-income earners over super tax concessions following suggestions the government was considering changes in the Budget.

    So abbott & hockey said they wouldn’t rule anything in or out in the so called ‘mature’ discussion regarding their tax review.

    Now abbott rules out withdrawing huge tax expenditures awarded to the rich regarding super.

    Hockey also recently ruled out any changes to the GST.

    No real moves to make companies pay appropriate tax in Australia either.

    Yet again their lips were moving.]

    They really ARE running scared aren’t they? But in one way or another this will come back to bite them.

    If they’re not going to go after the very well off it’s London to a brick they’ll be after the less well off again and that will revive all the memories of just how unfair their last budget was. If Shorten is on his toes we really should see a hemorrhage of votes from the Liberals over these issues leading into the next election.

  28. [Any of the Bludger’s who have been so quick to judge the man’s supposed lack of political nous hold 5 tertiary qualifications?

    Nope?]

    So what?

  29. Good Morning

    Another day another plan to increase unemployment by this government.

    There is 40 000 people in the car dealers part of selling cars whose jobs are now under threat.

    Then of course there are those whose lives will be threatened by the importation of cars that do not meet Australian standards and the risk to the consumer of cars on the road that have been recalled by the manufacturer.

  31. I’m sorry, what?

    Since when did the number of tertiary qualifications have anything to do with political nous?

    Barry Jones was famously one of the most intelligent people ever to be a Minister – and was equally famous for his lack of political smarts.

    So I take it your argument is that Dr Karl knew exactly what he was doing, and his present retractions are hypocritical?

  32. BCassidy reckons Abbott thinks he is onto a winner by hammering Daniel Andrews on the east west link. Really?? I am bloody confused

  34. On Dr Karl.

    He has admitted he has made a mistake. He has said why and in fact he has pointed out the IGR that has been produced is trash.

    Given the history of the IGR being independent economic reports doing the adverts promoting the concept of the IGR is reasonable. As he said they should have put the make your own mind up in flashing lights instead of just a line at the end.

    KK will survive with his reputation mainly intact as this mistake was one that many reasonable people can take.

    So yes he was wrong to do it. However it is not a career destroying mistake, It was not plagiarism or falsifying evidence by him. It was a mistake trusting a process to continue based on past history that was radically different under this government.

  35. Also Faine and Cassidy made mention of leadershit. Turnbull is not popular in the party, and Morrison is the one that is being groomed by those who support him in the party.

  36. [But he say the dealers don’t need to worry, they can still make money on servicing. I bet they are thrilled with that.]

    I thought that too this morning when I heard the news about imported cars.

    You’d have to think that car dealers were one of the bastions of Liberal support. Like doctors or real estate agents.

    To piss them off, first by closing down local manufacturing, with all the attendant kerfuffle, lack of customer confidence and fire sales etc., was bad enough.

    NOW they’re saying you can circumvent local dealerships and buy internationally, letting the locals pick up the crumbs.

    It’ll probably only apply to expensive cars (and the people who can afford to wait a month or six for them to be shipped – no air freight means the slow boat) but it’s guaranteed to piss off a core constituency.

    The Liberals’ basic plan seems to be to make Australia and Australians a nation of clients. We buy all the good stuff, the “cargo” from overseas, while we export dirt – coal mostly, and minerals – in return. Meanwhile, to pass the time, we make coffees for each other, do each other’s laundry and sell each other houses, with just enough foreign buyers to make sure the prices stay hiked up high.

    When we’re not at work (no penalty rates, of course) we can watch endless renovation and cooking-based Reality TV shows, or go to the footy (all controlled by party patrons, naturally).

    We get rid of our manufacturing skills and jobs, we kill off the NBN ito prop up a third rate, lazy, Old Technology cable TV model owned by a major party backer, we kill incentives for alternative energy, and we make sure that our farms and food production capacity are decimated in favour of foreign-owned companies fracking for fun and profit, so they can sell to overseas buyers. In the process we pay a huge increase in energy costs as reward for this devastation.

    Nice little country we got here. Pity if sumpin’ was to happen to it…

  37. [He is way smarter than you.]

    What a stupid comment. My political smarts are streets ahead of his based on his recent decision to trust Abbott and Co. His academic achievements are impressive but are should not be used as a guide to his ‘smarts’ in other areas.

  39. [Permits that would allow industry to look for petroleum in marine sanctuaries have been quietly granted by the Abbott government while it reviews 40 freshly minted marine reserves.]

    No announcement accompanied by six flags for this one. They are going to reverse Labor’s extended marine reserves and they know it’s wrong.

  40. Sussan Ley hasn’t studied the report on hospitals in detail, but she’s sure that it’s wrong. Funding for hospitals will go up and up and up. Just like Tony’s pensions.

  42. Dr Karl..

    “What have I done wrong?” he told Fairfax Media. “As far as I’m concerned I was hired to bring the public’s attention to the report. People have heard about this one where they hadn’t heard about IGR one, two or three.”

    ..”political nous”??

  43. This comment is nothing to do with Dr Karl, but the poor language skills of The Age subbie. At first reading it means that he ‘fronted ads to pulic schools’.

    [Science broadcaster to donate income for fronting Abbott government ads to public schools.]

  45. I had a friend from NZ who sent her car ‘across the ditch’ to Melbourne.

    It was a standard Nissan model sold everywhere but here apparently.

    The cost of the freight was worth more in the end than the car and the damage caused by salt (cheaper to ship without a standard ISO container) required ongoing mediation.

    The cost and time sending a car from say Europe rather than Asia may well put people off.

  47. [victoria
    Posted Thursday, April 16, 2015 at 9:56 am | PERMALINK
    BCassidy reckons Abbott thinks he is onto a winner by hammering Daniel Andrews on the east west link. Really?? I am bloody confused    ]

    Vic

    This could blow up in Abbott’s face if the contracts show that he approved the infrastructure expenditure without a plausible business case being provided.

    Andrews seems to have some genuine political smarts and it wouldn’t surprise me if there is a bit of rope a dope going on at the moment.

  48. [Relations between the Abbott government and the states have sunk to new levels of distrust as premiers travel to Canberra on Thursday for a Council of Australian Governments meeting on Friday.

    That meeting is expected to be dominated by grievances over the withdrawal of tens of billions in federal funding for hospitals over the next nine years, and an incendiary dispute over the carve-up of the the $57 billion GST pie.]

    We know Abbott is useless at negotiating anything. The COAG meeting should be fun. 😉

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/east-west-link-tony-abbott-lashes-out-over-scrapping-of-project-20150415-1mlmq8.html

  49. Brilliant news: coal *doesn’t* have a big future.

    Fossil fuels now coming 2nd to renewables globally

    [The world is now adding more capacity for renewable power each year than coal, natural gas, and oil combined…The shift occurred in 2013, when the world added 143 gigawatts of renewable electricity capacity, compared with 141 gigawatts in new plants that burn fossil fuels]

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-14/fossil-fuels-just-lost-the-race-against-renewables

  50. Darn

    my thinking also. admittedly, Cassidy’s segment with faine only goes for a short time and there is no in depth analysis

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