The New South Wales election together with the Easter break have left the big media polls out of the picture recently, with Newspoll taking an extra week off, Ipsos last being heard from in late February, and a full two months having passed since the last result from Galaxy. That means the BludgerTrack poll aggregate is heavily influenced at the moment by Morgan and Essential, together with last week’s result from ReachTEL. This week’s result from Morgan was the Coalition’s best since October, making a full 1.0% of difference on the two-party reading and giving the Coalition a four-seat boost on the seat projection. Newspoll’s quarterly state breakdowns have also been added to the model, which means there’s more movement than usual this week at state level. Labor’s rather excessive projected gains in Queensland have been moderated to the tune of three, and they’re also off one each in New South Wales and Tasmania, while gaining one in Western Australia. Nothing new this week on leadership ratings.
Added attractions:
• As I always do after Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns are published, I now offer a full suite of state-level BludgerTrack breakdowns featuring primary vote details and trend charts.
• Seat of the Week is back in new-and-improved form, and will henceforth be published every Wednesday evening concurrently with BludgerTrack. Today’s entry is Corangamite.
• In addition to the state breakdowns highlighted here the other day, The Australian has also published quarterly Newspoll breakdowns by gender and age.
• The Age reports that ReachTEL conducted polling of four marginal seats for United Voice, including a survey of 707 respondents in Eden-Monaro that credited Labor with a lead of 57-43. There was also said to be a “swing to Labor” in Bonner (Queensland), Hindmarsh (South Australia) and Swan (Western Australia), though I’m unclear if that means they were in front. (UPDATE: The West Australian reports the Swan result gives Labor a 54.7-45.3 lead on respondent-allocated preferences, from primary votes of 40.1% Liberal, 37.2% Labor and 10.5% Greens – hat-tip to Leroy Lynch).
imacca
Does this mean that if the children are not vaccinated, the parents won’t get the money but children will still be able to attend? Wouldn’t it be better to say no vac, no attendance. That’s the rule for dogs in boarding kennels.
imacca:
I wondered earlier how religious belief is related to vaccination.
On what religious grounds is vaccination not acceptable?
fess
Maybe it’s similar to accepting blood donation.
The ‘vac’ thing – I’m in favour.
Re Vac. in the USA
______________
The real maddies of the Tea Party in the US have now gained such influence that several Repug members of Congress are speaking about their oppositiion to Vac in the same way as they oppose many other scientific /medical advances
This will further isolate them from mainstream politics
Abbott and his right-wing seem to be wary of such policies ,which would be stupid here
lizzie:
Can only find this from Wiki:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vaccination_and_religion
They look like anti science fringe cranks than a genuine religious belief system however.
TPOF
The video is a framing of the discussion – about where we’re heading as a nation – in terms that suit the current government. It’s not merely some kind of background context due to the video’s provenance either. K personally speaks that framing at several points.
CTar1
I am as well! The risk is in preschools all children need to be vaccinated and if they aren’t those children without vaccination can cause a problem for others and are refused enrollment.
I think families whose children are not vaccinated are taking a huge risk.
fess
[The Congregation of Universal Wisdom, a religion based on belief in chiropractic spinal adjustments and Universal Intelligence]
OK, that’s one I’m not joining 🙂
Re Christian Science…so called
________________________
I knew a woman of middle-age..a Ch Scientist…who refused anti-biotics…despite her familes pleadings …and died of pneumonia
confessions
The parents in those nimby places in the North of NSW don’t in the main believe in the vaccinations.
MTBW
Agree. I would want to know if un-vaccinated children were at day-care or primary school.
MTBW:
I work with a couple of people like that, they refuse to vaccinate their children because they think it is far more risky to do so than to not immunise.
That isn’t religious belief, it’s sheer unbridled ignorance that they’ve soaked up courtesy of the rubbish pushed by those disgusting anti-vaxxer groups which cleverly craft their messages to make it look as if what they’re saying is scientifically proven.
confessions
[That isn’t religious belief, it’s sheer unbridled ignorance that they’ve soaked up courtesy of the rubbish pushed by those disgusting anti-vaxxer groups which cleverly craft their messages to make it look as if what they’re saying is scientifically proven.]
There is the rub they are both ignorant and uncaring.
They would be the first to whinge if one of their children suffered.
For a bit of lite relief have a look on the smile on Andy Murray’s face at his wedding.
http://www.smh.com.au/sport/tennis/andy-murray-weds-kim-sears-in-scotland-20150411-1mj76w.html
MTBW
[Despite earlier hailstorms,]
Ah Scotland in the Springtime 🙂
I rather like the way in which the antivaxxers take themselves and their offspring out of the gene pool.
Every little bit helps.
Boerwar
The problem is that they don’t just hurt themselves.
If the anti-vaxxers were only hurting themselves, there would not be any real problem.
[That Hockey couldn’t find an economist and had to go for a populist scientainment guy speaks volumes.]
The good Dr Carl is nothing more than a scientific “jack of all trades and master of none “.He has just lost a lot of fans by playing politics which is obviously not one of his stronger suits….
Peter of Marino
I notice that he ended his comment with “make up your own mind”.
Many have obviously have and don’t like what he said.
poroti
I loved the kilts and there seems to be a lot of money spent on hats the Milliners would have been having a field day.
If only Dr Karl’s knowledge of national accounts were as vast as his knowledge of natural sciences. The IGR focused on the financial side of demographic changes when the what is relevant to the national government is the REAL economic challenges. Real output as in actual goods and services. Stuff that people need to live well. The currency issuer will never have a problem paying for things – it cannot run out of its own currency. It creates the currency. But there are problems if there isn’t enough real stuff, or not the rights kind of real stuff, for the government or the private sector to buy. The authors of the IGR are deluded enough to think that there the government may run out of its own currency and therefore not be able to pay for pensions, health care etc. The real problem is that if we don’t spend enough today on infrastructure, education, and job creation the older people of the future will be served by an economy which does not produce enough real goods and services for them to buy with their pensions.
[They would be the first to whinge if one of their children suffered.]
The 2 people at work actually reject the concept of herd immunity, so their view if their child contracted a disease would be you win some, you lose some.
Just ridiculous.
Vac…polio
_____
I’m an old guy and so can remember the horrrors of the post-WW2 polio-epidemics…and the relief when the Salk Vaccine came …many young adults as well as kids had suffered…and we all got the vaccine in 1959 very quickly
I don’t remember any child in my school where I taught… NOT having it then
deb
[I don’t remember any child in my school where I taught… NOT having it then]
A big scare will bring these dunces out of the woodwork claiming the ‘government’ didn’t warn me enough.
[
1024
CTar1
TPOF
Bad judgment to promote a report he hadn’t read.
]
I quote from Wikipedia:
[{Dr Karl} holds a Bachelor of Science degree in Physics and Mathematics, a Master of Biomedical Engineering, and a Bachelor of Medicine and Surgery, he has studied Computer Science as well as reading for a Master of Science (Qualifying) degree in Astrophysics. He has worked as a physicist, a tutor/research assistant, a filmmaker, a car mechanic, a road manager, a taxi driver, a scientific officer in a hospital, a t-shirt manufacturer, a doctor, an academic, an author, a public speaker, a television presenter and reporter, a script writer, a weather man, a radio panelist, science reporter, writer and presenter, and a script consultant.]
He also stood for parliament (senate, 2007).
If a man with such a background has still not learned to double check the fine print before spruiking for a known liar & exploiter like Abbott, and then gets bitten on the reputational arse by it, he has nobody but himself to blame.
Why would anyone place any faith in the IGR? The same people who predict the budget outcomes every 12 months and consistently get it wrong, are the same people who wrote the IGR predicting 40 years from now….what hope they could that right…12 months has them stumped…
AA
It’s not necessarily more difficult to predict long term trends than short term fluctuations.
Following the elections the Coalition Government quickly and substantially increased the deficit with the apparent aim of attributing to the previous Government “an immense deficit” in order to reinforce its accusation of economic irresponsibility. Here is the evidence.
First, the Government made an $8.8 billion grant to the Reserve Bank which the Bank had not requested. Second, it reinstated the Howard Government’s fringe benefits tax concession for privately owned motor vehicles, which the Labor Government had cancelled on the grounds it had become a tax rort. This reinstatement reduced revenue by around $500 million a year. Third, it cancelled the previous Government’s very modest 15% tax on superannuation income over $100,000 which reduced revenue by about $600 million a year. (This Labor Government tax was designed both to reduce the inequality of the Howard Government’s abolition of tax on superannuation income and to modestly reduce the deficit.) These measures increased last year’s estimated deficit of $49 billion by nearly $10 billion
http://johnmenadue.com/blog/?p=3539
My question is why is the Government still pushing the IGR? IT’s sunk without a trace after about 2 days. While the principle of having an IGR is a good one, this report was a piece of speculative fiction aimed at pushing a political message.
Another thing, why did the Government advertising its University reforms after they were sunk in the Senate? The Liberal Party should be made to pick up the tab.
[ Wouldn’t it be better to say no vac, no attendance. That’s the rule for dogs in boarding kennels. ]
From what i can see lizzie thats the proposal.
[ On what religious grounds is vaccination not acceptable? ]
Fess, id argue onn the basis that instruction from an imaginary friend is not a good basis for public health policy and inflicting risk on people who do not share a belief in that imaginary friend is wrong.
Steve777
What else do they have to go with?
imacca
I thought it was no vac, no child allowance. So if you can afford it you can still send the child.
Re the IGR. Oooooh there will be an aging population says Joe…………..and Dr Karl, it will have scary effects and there will be less workers to retirees . FFS this has been known for decades .It was why Labor introduced superannuation in the first place !!!
Even NZ’s Piggy Muldoon was on to it in the early 1980’s. He proposed a version of the Super scheme that would, by the then far distant late 1990’s, be able to pay for the pensions. Sadly NZ Labour ran an Abbott style “Great Big New Tax” scare campaign and the idea died . Bloody idiots.
[id argue onn the basis that instruction from an imaginary friend is not a good basis for public health policy]
Definitely not.
And it’s clear from the US experience that allowing a religious belief loophole just sees more people claiming religious beliefs in order to opt out of immunisation.
Steve777:
Howard 1996-2007: Government of Jones’ listeners, using bribery and trickery, by suburban solicitors, for Banksters, Chamber of Commerce Members and the Cheney Gang.
Toady 2013-2016: Government of Bolt watchers, using bluster and FUD, by bought propagandists, for Banksters, IPA Members and the Cheney Gang’s owners.
1085
It was New Zealand Labour that introduced the scheme and Muldoon who ran the infamous “Dancing Cossacks” scare campaign (anti-Communism, because the government fund (which could be opted out of) was buying lots of assets) in 1975. Muldoon instead increased the pension and scrapped the means-test.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IbevFguT6NE
lizzie:
It’s definitely linked to the family tax payments.
Further, perhaps child care centres should refuse to accept unvaccinated children?
fess
[perhaps child care centres should refuse to accept unvaccinated children]
That was my point.
[Further, perhaps child care centres should refuse to accept unvaccinated children?]
Yep.
I shouldn’t really be joining this discussion, because I haven’t been vaccinated against anything – I was born too early. But my own children had the polio and the triple antigen ones. I never thought to refuse them.
A wife of a fellow I worked with was a nurse in a pediatric ward and said any mother would be allowed to not vaccinate their child after working one day in her ward. The witnessing the effects of not vacinatting a child would change a lot of minds.
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/family-of-accused-murderer-vincent-stanford-help-police-in-investigation-into-death-of-stephanie-scott-20150412-1mj8f8.html
You have to feel for this family as well.
The killer’s mother and brother are helping police and have had to move into an unknown motel.
It is all just so sad for everyone involved.
MTBW
The killing of the schoolteacher in NSW is a terrible thing, but I wonder why the family of the accused need protection?
What have they done?
What sort of a country have we become if the family of an accused are targeted for retribution?
Finally an Abbott government policy I can support:
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/abbott-government-withdraws-childcare-payments-for-antivaccination-parents-20150412-1mj837.html
Shows on
Yeah maybe. Let’s see the detail. Abbott has form.
rossmcg
I would assume that the police have moved them for fear of retribution and to get them out of the spot light.
They would be going through all kinds of emotions and probably need to have some time together after such a shock.
There is no threat of retribution but their will be a lot of grieving on their part over what the mother and other brother are feeling.
Their lives and everything they knew has been shattered.
“there”
Tom the first and best @1088
Ooops. I stand corrected. A memory FAIL !