The New South Wales election together with the Easter break have left the big media polls out of the picture recently, with Newspoll taking an extra week off, Ipsos last being heard from in late February, and a full two months having passed since the last result from Galaxy. That means the BludgerTrack poll aggregate is heavily influenced at the moment by Morgan and Essential, together with last week’s result from ReachTEL. This week’s result from Morgan was the Coalition’s best since October, making a full 1.0% of difference on the two-party reading and giving the Coalition a four-seat boost on the seat projection. Newspoll’s quarterly state breakdowns have also been added to the model, which means there’s more movement than usual this week at state level. Labor’s rather excessive projected gains in Queensland have been moderated to the tune of three, and they’re also off one each in New South Wales and Tasmania, while gaining one in Western Australia. Nothing new this week on leadership ratings.
Added attractions:
• As I always do after Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns are published, I now offer a full suite of state-level BludgerTrack breakdowns featuring primary vote details and trend charts.
• Seat of the Week is back in new-and-improved form, and will henceforth be published every Wednesday evening concurrently with BludgerTrack. Today’s entry is Corangamite.
• In addition to the state breakdowns highlighted here the other day, The Australian has also published quarterly Newspoll breakdowns by gender and age.
• The Age reports that ReachTEL conducted polling of four marginal seats for United Voice, including a survey of 707 respondents in Eden-Monaro that credited Labor with a lead of 57-43. There was also said to be a “swing to Labor” in Bonner (Queensland), Hindmarsh (South Australia) and Swan (Western Australia), though I’m unclear if that means they were in front. (UPDATE: The West Australian reports the Swan result gives Labor a 54.7-45.3 lead on respondent-allocated preferences, from primary votes of 40.1% Liberal, 37.2% Labor and 10.5% Greens – hat-tip to Leroy Lynch).
Insiders panel this morning was amused that the latest buzz word for the Coalition is ‘integrity’. 😆
[So the Howard government were the biggest waste since the Fraser Government.
]
there was a massive boom, they largely wasted it, doesn’t seem anything but fact to me, unless you are going to consider tax cuts and middle class welfare the infrastructure of this new century!
The good news is that Bolt is over now so you get to have the Echo Chamber all to yourselves again…..the nasty Lib Bot is off to enjoy the day.
Till next we meet Bludgeroonies (perhaps while watching the final round of the Masters tomorrow morning????)
[The good news is that Bolt is over now so you get to have the Echo Chamber all to yourselves again…..the nasty Lib Bot is off to enjoy the day.]
Ahhh so bolt helps you with your statistics bolt has an impressive record with ‘facts’!
Good mid morning all 🙂
just catching up on this morning’s commentary.
Are we expected to think that Ms Abbott paying $250 per week rent to stay at Kirribilli house is good news for the PM!???? Seriously…….
[ I can see how that diminishes my arguments that your comments are party political cockamamie nonsense]
Ditto
[Are we expected to think that Ms Abbott paying $250 per week rent to stay at Kirribilli house is good news for the PM!???? Seriously…….]
Nice digs, if you can get it!
Att bottom of article there is a Podcast of Michelle Grattan interviewing Sam Dastyari (who is only 31 years old).
Goodness I am hopeless with judging the age of people
http://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-the-wild-west-presents-yet-another-taxing-issue-for-hockey-and-abbott-39926?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Latest+from+The+Conversation+for+10+April+2015+-+2626&utm_content=Latest+from+The+Conversation+for+10+April+2015+-+2626+CID_fa4a5c2ccd3a2801bce8b7ad472a83bc&utm_source=campaign_monitor&utm_term=Grattan%20on%20Friday%20The%20wild%20west%20presents%20yet%20another%20taxing%20issue%20for%20Hockey%20and%20Abbott
TPOF
What a complete joke. $250.00 wont even get you a bedsit in Melbourne
[1000
Happiness
So the Howard government were the biggest waste since the Fraser Government.]
I’m glad you agree.
$250 is about where a room in a share house starts in Darwin.
Am I wrong in thinking that trumpeting the entitlement of another of the Prime Mustelid’s daughters (who btw is a radiographer, not a radiologist, not having completed a medical degree) in right royally rorting the system is yet another example of the enormous tin eared stupidity of Toady and the reptiles of the Rupertariat?
Is Gerard Henderson actually Karl Kruszelnicki’s father?
After Dr. Karl’s recent ads for the Intergenerational report, I think this requires further investigation.
victoria:
Niki Savva said this morning it was a good news story for the govt. I personally cannot see how.
confessions
This mob are in la la land.
Peter Piper
I used to mildy respect Dr Karl. That is out the window
I’m sure Nikki Savva’s comments about Tony Abbott’s daughter were tongue-in-cheek. She seems positively rational alongside Gerard.
Savva said it was because Bridget Abbott was paying her own way, and not sponging off her parents – which given that we don’t know if she is actually paying the rent or her parents are, was a bit of a long bow to draw.
Peter
[I’m sure Nikki Savva’s comments about Tony Abbott’s daughter were tongue-in-cheek]
Surprisingly she’s become more critical of Abbott and Hockey recently.
How many of you really believe that Ms Abbott will be paying Dad the $250.00 per week out of her pocket?
Re Dr Karl
Having seen some of the ads now, I think the disappointment/hate being visited on him is quite unfair.
The IGR does actually contain some thought provoking projections into Australian demographics and the associated economic challenges around them. The problem is that this stupid, anti-Australian government turned what could have been a productive discussion starter into another ham-fisted, way-off-the-mark attempt at justifying its attempts to brutalise the poor to achieve alleged budget savings.
If you see these ads, it is the demographic-economic aspect that he is spruiking. As someone who makes a living on the back of his ability to explain these issues he is entitled to earn that money without attracting opprobrium. He certainly does not suggest that we should all cop the ridiculous 2014 budget and, from what I can gather, he was committed to making the ads without having the benefit of realising that the report had been hijacked by the government.
I think that people like me who detest this government need to avoid falling into blind tribalism as a result. The ads themselves are quite reasonable. It’s not Dr Karl’s fault that this mean, tricky, sneaky but overwhelmingly stupid government chose to subvert the report.
MTBW
[will be paying Dad the $250.00 per week out of her pocket?]
It’s less than Abbott gets for 1 night in Canberra.
I don’t recall previous IGRs being advertised at all – certainly not with TV ads or bus shelter posters.
TPOF
Bad judgment to promote a report he hadn’t read.
CTar1
Yet it is made a big deal of as though it is a gift to Charity or something.
CTar1
[It’s less than Abbott gets for 1 night in Canberra.]
I think you’ve reached the nub of the matter.
MTBW
[How many of you really believe that Ms Abbott will be paying Dad the $250.00 per week out of her pocket?]
Given how tight-arsed Abbott is, I’m prepared to believe it.
But that makes it even worse. My son was paying $310 to share a flat in Alexandria, plus utility bills. This would be fairly typical. It would read better that Abbott was making a contribution back to the national coffers than the young Ms Abbott is getting creme de la creme accommodation, with all services laid on and full security (which matters in Sydney) for $250.
There is a whole generation of young renters and house sharers who would happily pay twice that (or three times if they could afford it) for the same deal. Of course, it means they would have to have Tony Abbott’s company occasionally….
MTBW@1020
Who is receiving the $250 rent?
If Kiribili House is the PMs official residence, is she just paying rent to mum & dad rather than the Commonwealth?
That would fit the pattern of past behaviour.
CTar1
[Bad judgment to promote a report he hadn’t read.]
No different from a celebrity promoting cosmetics or some foodstuff without research the chemical components. People do this for a living. If, on the face of it, it seems reasonable then why not. He’s not promoting smoking or opposing carbon pricing on the basis that global warming is not happening.
It’s not as though he is up there spruiking the economic rubbish of Sloppy Joe. It’s a paid gig talking about statistical projections that looks harmless.
And all he is doing is telling people to look at the report and think about it. From what I can see, more than a few people have done that and concluded the government has distorted the projections for political gain.
TPOF
[ People do this for a living. ]
You can only sell your integrity once.
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/changing-the-world-and-ourselves-through-compassion-20150411-1mi37b.html
lizzie
I think that as soon as S H-Y’s Party forms government she is relevant.
If S H-Y wants to shift ALL the Iranians (wherever they are) who are greater risk in Iran than they are in Australia we should be building housing for an extra forty million people or so.
If S H-Y wants to extent the principle and shift ALL the earthians who are greater risk where they are now than they would be in Australia, we should be building housing for an extra four or five billion people.
Of course there is a policy dilemma for S H-Y once she gets them all into Australia: Australia would be a very dangerous place to live.
Until her Party forms government, she can only do ignore all reality and/or deals with Abbott.
Which the Greens are doing.
Boerwar
I only included SH-Y for ‘balance’. The question, rather, is whether we all trust the Immigration Dept to make a majority of correct decisions on who is/is not a refugee.
TPOF
You missed CTaR1’s point
Flogging rubbish when your brand is smarts is not only stupid it is an integrity thing.
lizzie
Are you thinking before or after staff do their mandatory push ups?
On Insiders, it was reported that some of the X-bench (Madigan?) are against wind farms, and reining them in has become a bargaining chip in the negotiations on the RET.
Boerwar 1035
I somehow missed that joke…
Given a choice between wind turbines and gas extraction on my farm (if I had one), I know which one I’d choose.
lizzie
It will be that libertarian wacko Leyonhjelm.
[ Anti-wind, climate denying crusader behind Leyonhjelm RET campaign]
http://reneweconomy.com.au/2014/anti-wind-climate-denying-crusader-behind-leyonhjelm-ret-campaign-73384
TPOF
[No different from a celebrity promoting cosmetics or some foodstuff without research the chemical components. People do this for a living.]
I don’t think much of those people either. A bit actor acting a part is one thing, but a public figure lending their own personal credibility to a product is entirely different.
Re Dr Karl
After seeing the ads themselves, the criticism of him still reeks of mindless tribal to me. But beyond that comment, I can’t really add to what I’ve said.
Cheers
poroti
Maybe he’s gaining more supporters, then.
For on e an Abbott Government reform I agree with: http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2015/04/12/no-jab-no-pay-childcare-benefits-be-tied-vaccinations
The IGR should have contained a lot of really good serious stuff, Hockey turned it into a political sideshow, Karl is Hockey’s clown, the good Dr deserves all the condemnation he gets and a good deal more as well.
lizzie
He will be also be raking in the “gun lobby” votes. Saw a recent interview and he was full on cheer squading for easing gun restrictions. Mentioning a dozen times what a keen shooter he was.
[A bit actor acting a part is one thing, but a public figure lending their own personal credibility to a product is entirely different.]
That is precisely what Hockey paid for, and Karl chose to sell his personal credibility for. You can’t sell your personal credibility to a really bad political product without taking a really big credibility hit.
That Hockey couldn’t find an economist and had to go for a populist scientainment guy speaks volumes.
UK: Privatisation works a treat –
[Every man, woman and child in Britain is more than £3,400 in debt – without knowing it and without borrowing a single penny – thanks to the proliferation of controversial deals used to pay for infrastructure such as schools and hospitals.]
http://www.independent.co.uk/money/loans-credit/crippling-pfi-deals-leave-britain-222bn-in-debt-10170214.html
[ Niki Savva said this morning it was a good news story for the govt. I personally cannot see how. ]
fess….Its a relativity thing.
Its NOT a story about how one of Abbott’s daughters is getting a substantial benefit from a group lobbying for legislative change that will give THEM a substantial benefit. 🙂
And that Pyne Fwarked up getting through the Senate. 🙂 🙂
Is Pyne counting his calories also a good news story for the government? Perhaps he was feeling attention deprived.
http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2015/04/12/no-jab-no-pay-childcare-benefits-be-tied-vaccinations
Ok, i can see this as a policy, but think they are going to have issues with challenges.
Fine, get those challenges dealt with in court as far as any of the anti-vaxers are willing to push it.
[ Mr Morrison said exemptions on medical or religious grounds will continue but parents must be affiliated with a religious group whose governing body has registered an objection approved by the government. ]
This FWARKING WELL ANNOYS ME!!! Perhaps even more than sharing the planet with idiots like our Goatchaser . 🙁
Exemptions on a VALID medical reason is a no-brainer.
Exemptions on religious grounds are wrong. A religious families child has just as much chance of spreading a disease as a non-religious families child. And they are discriminating between people who may have quiet, keep it to themselves religious beliefs and people affiliated with organised religions.
This is as bad or worse than the bullsh$t with the school chaplains program and candidates HAVING to be associated with religious groups.