Sunday
6pm. The Nationals have roared back into contention in Lismore with the counting of 504 postal votes, 56.9% of which have been primary votes for the Nationals. This is 17.5% higher than their polling booth vote, compared with only an 8.2% difference in 2011. The ABC is saying the Greens are on 50.4% two-party preferred, but I’m presuming this is based on a speculative preference flow – if you’re out there Antony, clarification would be much appreciated. The NSWEC has pulled its original preference count and is telling us we won’t get anything back until “the Distribution of Preferences has been completed for all Districts and candidates have been declared elected”, which strongly suggests to me there’s no new indicative count being done. In any case, if the ABC preference flow is correct, it would seem extremely likely that the postal trend will continue decisively in the Nationals favour.
1am. As best as I can tell, the two-party swing has been 9.4%, suggesting a final result of 54.8% for the Coalition and 45.2% for Labor, with preferences breaking about 33% to Labor and 19% to the Coalition, with 48% exhausting. This compares with 24%, 21% and 55% in 2011 – using those numbers would have caused you to overstate the Coalition two-party vote by a bit over 1%. The change in preference behaviour is roughly half that at the Queensland election, when Labor got 48% (up from 27%), the Liberal National Party got 16% (down from 22%) and the exhausted rate was 36% (down from 51%).
Saturday
11.31pm. The NSWEC announces counting has completed for the night. So there doesn’t seem to be much uncertainty left, apart from the narrowness of Labor’s leads in Gosford (0.6%), The Entrance (0.9%) and Strathfield at a pinch (1.3%), and maybe whether Liberal preferences flow heavily enough to the independent in Wollongong to endanger Noreen Hay.
11.16pm. Little further progress, except that the tide keeps ebbing towards Jodi McKay in Strathfield, who should now be okay with a 1.3% projected margin.
10.23pm. Not sure exactly why the Upper Hunter 2PP is entering in one surge, but now we’ve got 30 out of 45 and the Nationals are out of the woods.
10.15pm. Upper Hunter 2PP count now up to 16 booths out of 45, and the Nationals lead has dropped from 2.9% to 1.8%.
10.03pm. Earlier I noted the Nationals lead in Upper Hunter snapped from 0.2% to 2.9% — that turns out to have been because the 2PP booth count went from four out of 45 to 13. These are small booths so you wouldn’t want to be too confident, but it would still be a surprise if Labor won. In any case, the swing is a highly notable 20.3%.
10.01pm. Jodi McKay continues edging very slightly further ahead in Strathfield, her lead now 0.9%.
9.59pm. Antony explains peculiarity of Upper Hunter count, with lots of primaries and few 2PPs, and says on his view the Nationals primary vote is low enough that they’re in trouble. So we will keep that on the watch list.
9.56pm. Noreen Hay up a bit in Wollongong to 41.4%. Independent Arthur Rorris leads Liberal 20.9% to 19.4% — I suppose it’s possible he’ll do less well in late counting, which you often see with independents and minor parties, and that he won’t finish second. If he does, he’ll need a very strong flow of Liberal preferences. Whether he’ll get it is a question we won’t know the answer to this evening.
9.54pm. Another booth in Strathfield shifts ALP lead from 0.7% to 0.8%.
9.51pm. And now the lead’s recorded at 2.9%, so not sure what’s happening here.
9.49pm. Surprise late movement in Upper Hunter — 44.2% counted, 22.7% swing, projected Nationals lead 0.3%. However, there’s a big mismatch here between the number of booths reporting on two-party (four) and primary (37), so I suspect we may have an anomaly here.
9.45pm. 13% counted for upper house, and Land Tax Party’s vote has gone down from 1.8% last I looked to 1.6%. Probably nine seat to Coalition with one each as usual for Christians and Shooters, which would get the Coalition what they wanted, namely one cross-bench micro-party to sway rather than two. Too early to say anything with confidence though.
9.44pm. Another booth, another 0.1% on Labor’s projected lead in The Entrance — now at 0.8%.
9.40pm. Gosford right on the line, flipping between Liberal ahead and Labor ahead on the ABC projection with nearly every update.
9.37pm. ABC now calling East Hills after long have Liberal merely “ahead”, with a fairly substantial lead of 2.2%.
9.33pm. ABC now back to Labor gain in The Entrance, but all it’s down to is a shift in the predicted margin from 0.5% to 0.7%. With 56.6% counted, this needs to stay on the watch list. A long history of very close results in this seat.
9.27pm. Other than that, Gosford and The Entrance very much in doubt. But as far as I can tell, all other results are settling in.
9.25pm. Jodi McKay losing ground in Strathfield: projected lead now only 0.6%, and ABC downgrades her from win to ahead. Noreen Hay now down to 40.5% in Wollongong, to the point where she could conceivably be in trouble. Independent Arthur Rorris’s 21.6% to 19.7% lead over the Liberals is narrow, but almost certainly sufficient.
8.58pm. Berejiklian asks a good question about preference exhaustion, but it wouldn’t appear that anyone’s placed to answer that. My vague sense though is that ReachTEL’s projections were about right.
8.57pm. ABC determining no swing at all in Monaro, with Nationals margin of 2.0%.
8.49pm. Antony says Queanbeyan results indicate Nationals to hold Monaro. Labor concedes Newtown, says Chris Uhlmann.
8.48pm. Labor gains Londonderry, vacated by Bart Bassett, with 15.8% swing off a third counted.
8.47pm. Hadn’t mentioned Tamworth – Peter Draper has fallen a bit flat there, safe Nationals retain.
8.45pm. The Entrance very, very close. Ditto Gosford.
8.44pm. Berejiklian points to 12.2% Christian Democrats vote in Granville, up from 5.3% last time, which has evidently not converted into a strong flow of Liberal preferences.
8.42pm. As Antony Green notes, Alex Greenwich’s 44.0% is well clear of Clover Moore’s career best of 39.8%.
8.41pm. Seat projection now closer to the respondent-allocated than the previous-election preference model.
8.37pm. Greens big show looking very much like the luck of the draw — their primary vote is essentially unchanged on 2011.
8.35pm. Prospect has now tipped over to the point where the ABC computer is providing 2PP projections and not just raw numbers (it took me a while to twig that it was working that way), and despite a slow count it’s calling it for Labor.
8.31pm. No Land Tax’s 1.9% suggests they’re a show for an upper house seat, I would have thought.
8.29pm. Long night ahead in Monaro. The ABC had a slight swing to the Nationals before, but now it’s a slight swing to Labor — 1.1%, with a margin of 2%. Slow count, with the picture unlikely to be clear until we see those big Queanbeyan booths.
8.27pm. Very good result for Liberal member Gareth Ward in Kiama, who has worked very hard from what I can tell, and is credited with a 1.4% swing. Nearby, Noreen Hay’s primary vote of 43% plus should see her right, despite the independent finishing second.
8.23pm. ABC calling for Londonderry, adding to Sydney area gains that include Blue Mountains, Campbelltown, Granville, Rockdale and Strathfield. But they don’t include East Hills, which isn’t looking good for them, or Seven Hills and Oatley, where the Liberals have won — never mind Coogee, Seven Hills, Holsworthy, Mulgoa, Parramatta and Penrith (if you were wondering about Jackie Kelly, she’s on 8.3%).
8.19pm. Labor now ahead in Gosford, which if sustained would add to Central Coast/Hunter gains in Maitland, Port Stephens, Swansea and Wyong, to which you could add Newcastle and Charlestown if using the 2011 election as your base.
8.18pm. The ABC computer has demoted Labor to “ahead” in The Entrance.
8.16pm. Antony not entirely convinced by his Strathfield numbers, but it would be very odd for the ABC to be wrong about a 3.7% lead with over 30% counted.
8.15pm. ABC projections filling out. Big Labor-versus-Coalition question marks are East Hills, Gosford, Monaro. Slow count in Liverpool and Prospect. Independent now second in Wollongong, which might be dangerous for Noreen Hay, but you’d think her 44.4% primary vote would be enough.
8.14pm. Despite hopeful talk from Berejiklian, the ABC is putting Labor 3.7% ahead and calling it.
8.11pm. Evenly allocated the ABC’s five undecided seats, result looks somewhere between the 2011 preferences and respondent-allocated preferences projections on my poll tracker — the primary votes of which are basically correct, with Labor 0.9% too low on the primary, the Greens 0.5% too high, the Coalition 0.3% too high.
8.05pm. Looks like a good night for the Greens, who might win as many as four lower house seats. ABC computer confident Labor will win Ballina if they get ahead of the Greens, but that’s not looking likely — Greens 30.0%, Labor 25.7%. The Greens are also well ahead of Labor in Lismore, so I’m guessing that’s looking a close-run thing between Nationals and Greens. ABC computer calling Newtown and Balmain for them.
8.05pm. ABC calling Oatley for Liberal.
7.57pm. I’m now getting that correction I anticipated in Strathfield. Now it’s projected that McKay is 1.7% ahead, although it’s not calling it yet.
7.55pm. Antony crediting Labor’s strong recovery in Hunter and Illawarra to electricity privatisation, and recalling something similar happening in 1991.
7.51pm. Overall, the election is playing very much according to script. Nationals in trouble in Ballina and Lismore, as forecast. Strong performance by Labor in Hunter and Central Coast. But Labor is falling short in Sydney, although an uneven picture with some stronger performances for Labor (Campbelltown, Blue Mountains) and some weaker (East Hills, Oatley).
7.50pm. Berejiklian calling Oatley and getting “positive messages” about East Hills, which would both be demoralising losses for Labor given their 3.8% and 0.2% margins.
7.49pm. But Greens well ahead of Labor for second place in Lismore, and surely looking good to win on Labor preferences.
7.48pm. Ballina on a three-way knife edge. Nothing between Labor and Greens for second place, nothing between Labor and Nationals if it’s Labor who gets ahead. Presumably Greens will win if they finish ahead of Labor.
7.47pm. Central Coast and Hunter going according to script for Labor. Very good result by the looks in Port Stephens; Maitland, Wyong, The Entrance, Swansea look like gains.
7.45pm. Monaro will clearly be close, but hard to pick given its diversity. You’d rather be the Nationals at this stage.
7.40pm. Very early numbers good for Labor in Macquarie Fields, and they’re well ahead in Campbelltown, looking good in Londonderry. Granville being called for Labor. But “Liberal ahead” in East Hills. Strikingly good result for Liberal in Strathfield — too striking I think, will want to see more numbers there. Still too early to say much about Seven Hills. Nothing doing for Labor in Sydney in seats beyond 8% – Holsworthy, Mulgoa and Parramatta looking safe for the Liberals.
7.38pm. Antony’s projected primary vote totals broadly in line with the polls, with the Coalition maybe a big higher than my poll aggregate. I’m not able to get a clear sense though of what preferences are doing in aggregate.
7.33pm. Labor “ahead” in Port Stephens, which is good news for them. ABC calls 49 seats for Coalition, 30 for Labor, one for the Greens (that’s Newtown I guess, but that’s off very early numbers) and two independents, meaning Greg Piper and (I guess) Alex Greenwich.
7.33pm. Seven Hills looking close. Sensing western Sydney slightly better for Labor than some commentary was indicating.
7.29pm. Liberals looking okay in Kiama. Only 3.4% counted in Wollongong, but the mooted independent is third on 18.6%. He’ll first need to overtake the Liberals on 21.4%, then get strong preferences to overtake Hay, who is on 38.4%.
7.29pm. ABC has Coogee called for the Liberals, so I ran down the garden path a little on that one earlier.
7.28pm. Campbelltown looking strong for Labor, despite talk they would struggle
7.26pm. ABC calls Maitland for Labor. Independent Philip Penfold doing well on 22.6%, but still running third. Elsewhere on the Central Coast, The Entrance remains called for Labor, and they’re ahead in Wyong on 4.5%. Liberals ahead in Gosford.
7.24pm. Blue Mountains looking good for Labor.
7.23pm. Greens looking strong on 3.7% counted in Newtown; close on Balmain in 1.4%. Early days yet in both.
7.22pm. Greg Piper returned in Lake Macquarie.
7.20pm. Still only 5.4% counted, but Ballina looking either Labor or Greens, barring a late Nationals recovery. No worries for the Nationals in Clarence though, and likely to get home in Tweed.
7.19pm. Remarkably strong early results for the Liberals in Oatley, with 4.8% counted.
7.18pm. Antony’s display has Nats “ahead” rather than confirmed in Lismore.
7.17pm. Greens matching it with Labor on 2.7% counted in Heffron, but no idea what booth it is — Greens vote is strong here at the northern, city end of the seat.
7.15pm. ABC computer calling Goulburn for the Liberals.
7.14pm. The ABC computer is calling Lismore for the Nationals, but the question is whether a Nationals-versus-Greens result might tell a different story.
7.13pm. Antony talking up the Liberals in a few seats where I’m not seeing numbers yet. Berejiklian says they’re “looking like a chance” in The Entrance, but I’m not sure if she’s actually looked at the figures.
7.12pm. ABC computer calls The Entrance for Labor from 16.3% counted.
7.12pm. First numbers from Tweed have 18.0% swing to Labor with Nationals 3.6% ahead; 4.9% counted.
7.11pm. And Antony cautious says ABC computer “indicative” of Coalition victory.
7.10pm. Antony brings up bad early number for Labor in Monaro, but cautions the seat will be decided in Queanbeyan rather than these rural areas, where things could be very different.
7.09pm. Lineball between Labor and Greens for second place in Lismore, but with Labor looking to be falling short if it’s them.
7.05pm. Not sure what’s going on in Coogee. Antony is obviously seeing something different from me, because I just heard him refer to encouraging numbers for Liberal member Bruce Notley-Smith. And the ABC numbers I was just citing have essentially disappeared – now they’ve got a 2PP with only 141 votes counted.
7.03pm. Encouraging numbers for Labor in Coogee — 6.7% counted, 9.4% swing, Labor 1.1% ahead.
7.02pm. Richo on Sky appears to suggest he’s thinking the Greens will win Lismore.
7.01pm. Antony brings up a Goulburn two-party result that bears out what I just said — big swing, but not big enough.
6.59pm. Very strong looking results for the Greens in Ballina, even taking the booths into account, but unfortunately here too the notional count is Nationals-versus-Labor.
6.56pm. It’s actually looking like Pru Goward is down about 20% on the primary vote with Labor up 4%. That’s still not enough to account for her 26.8% margin.
6.52pm. The most advanced count is in the who-cares electorate of Cootamundra.
6.49pm. Early figures for Goulburn look superficially good for Pru Goward, giving her 53.2% of the primary vote, but there’s nothing in from Goulburn proper.
6.46pm. Greens on 29.9% and Nationals on 40.8% in Lismore, suggesting preferences from the 23.8% Labor vote will be decisive, which is no surprise. Antony appears to be doing an estimated Nationals-versus-Greens throw, but the NSWEC count is Nationals-versus-Labor.
6.40pm. Most a case of primary vote counts in safe Nationals areas at this stage. Still not seeing any two-party counts so I can get a bead on preferences.
6.37pm. Lismore is geared for a Nationals-versus-Greens count, which is good. With 1% counted, there’s a projected Nationals margin of 2.4%, but it’s too early at this point. Meaninglessly early figures for Golburn and Rockdale, both lineball at this very early stage.
6.28pm. A few tiny booths in from around the place. One is Fairy Hill Hall in Lismore, but it only amounts to 62 votes, which seems a bit odd because there were 420 here last time.
6pm. Polls have closed, and we should get the first and smallest booths in in about half an hour or so. There are two exit polls doing the rounds, ReachTEL with 54-46 to the Coalition, Galaxy with 55-45 from primary of 46% for the Coalition, 34% for Labor and 11% for the Greens – so very well in line with the poll tracker, in other words.
According to the current figures the ALP needs a uniform 7.2 per cent swing to win government in 2019 as a minority, for majority government it needs over 10 per cent
East hills 1.0 per cent
Coogee 2.2 per cent
Monaro 2.0 per cent
Penrith 6.0 per cent
Oatley 6.9 per cent
Healthcote 7.2 per cent
Hols worthy 8.9 per cent
Expat Follower@391
The economic disadvantages are huge at state & federal level and ongoing.
At state level I’ve set it out above. A very dumb decision economically.
Federally, whoever buys the Poles & wires will in all likelihood load it up with debt, sourced cheaply overseas but charged in the range of 10% through a related party (as Newscorp has done) and then pay no tax out for many years.
Voters just cost themselves a monty – plus most of the promised infrastructure if built will be tolled – ie the equivalent of more taxes raised that the state government cannot do. Thats why they don’t borrow cheaply to build infrastructure – they still have to service the debt.
Overall this is all a huge difference.
Jules
[Bit of a pity about today, but the ALP haven’t done enough to win back the state, much better than last time tho.]
I do not know why people in Ballina electorate voted the way they did but it was curious that the ALP ran on:
– stopping CSG mining (yet it was the former corrupt ALP Government that handed out the mining leases;
– stopping the west byron development (yet it was the former corrupt ALP Government that called the development in as of “State Significance” because the ALP was unhappy with Council’s refusal).
Obviously, the ALP thinks people are stupid.
Also it was the ALP Government that closed our railway.
I think most ALP MP’s want to be Liberals but just didn’t go to the right schools.
Side question. Greens look to have 3 or 4 seats. Will they modify their policy on diesel fuel rebates and GM crops to try and keep the country seats or will they risk losing the country seats once CSG as an issue has passed?
[Edwina StJohn
…Coogee and east hills will be only the liberal seats in greater Sydney under 6 per cent margin.]
Only Monaro outside Sydney by my calculations….
So new Pendulum:
East Hills (1.0%)
Coogee (2.2%)
Monaro (2.2%)
…and everything else is >5%
This is the first and last time you will hear me swear.
But FOR FUCKS SAKE!
The SMH/Fairfax are the biggest bunch of wankers in the country, how to piss and moan about Abbott and turn the landslide NSW Win into leadershit whinge about Abbott?
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/nsw-state-election-2015/nsw-election-2015-little-comfort-for-prime-minister-tony-abbott-in-strong-mike-baird-win-20150328-1m9xgg.html
[ ALP ran on:
– stopping CSG mining (yet it was the former corrupt ALP Government that handed out the mining leases; ]
Baird has been renewing those same licenses. Not canceling them.
He will contuinue to do so.
Happiness @381:
[Just remember there are lots of Lebanese Christians (in Australian Lebanese particularly):
“In Australia, 53% of Lebanese born in Lebanon are Christian, while a large minority (40%) are Muslim.[2]”]
Yes, Maronite Christians I believe. Which is to say, in full religious communion with the Roman Catholic Church (it is proper to refer to Maronites as “Catholics”), but from a different cultural perspective than Western Catholicism.
dave
[Baird has been renewing those same licenses. Not canceling them.
He will contuinue to do so.]
yes, Baird seems to be more Labor than Labor!! 🙂
TrueBlueAussie@406
You’ve done more then swear under the various PB names you’ve had.
Remember ?
If anything there has to be questions about Bill Shortens leadership.
He is the Kim Beazley of the Labor Party. He stands for nothing. He has no policies. He only opposes.
Why swear? Shows a lack of language skills.
Also tweed 1.8 happiness.
The pendulum seat assuming a uniform swing is riverstone with a margin of 9.8 per cent.
This is actually a terrible result for labor, highly unlikely to get swings like that in one term, and the seats in that band of 1.0 to 9.8 per cent will have entrenched local members who will very hard to dislodge barring personal scandal.
It’s 2023 for the NSW alp realistically.
ESJ, really is it the case that the 7th most marginal Coalition seat in all of NSW sits on a 7.2% margin – and i’m not talking against ALP but against anyone?? I havent delved into the figures in that much detail yet, plus am guessing you’re already giving a couple of very close seats away right now (eg Strathfield) that if true would mean we’d only be talking maybe about the 4th or 5th most marginal seat.
Having said that, if you’re right then that really does sound like a pretty solid comfort zone going into the next election for the Coalition – whereby would require a “landslide” rather than a solid Bob Carr ’95 performance to threaten their majority
ESJ @389:
[4 greens seats ? Will Labor rule out Coalitions with the Greens in future?]
Whyever should they?
Parties form coalitions as a combination of beliefs and convenience dictate.
It’s why you have suburban spivs like the Liberals coaligning with agrarian socialists like the Nationals. Convenience.
…although the arrangement seems to be getting steadily less “convenient” for the Nats…
Arrnea @400:
[I’m sticking with 10 Coalition, 7 ALP, 2 GRN, 1 each S&F, CDP]
Off Happiness’ numbers…you’re expecting both the LNP and the CDP to get up in the LC, both off 0.6 quotas?
Absent an improvement in their primaries, I wouldn’t be so sure – did either of them engage in notably successful preference-harvesting arrangements?
TrueBlueAussie@411
abbott is in government – if he is not up to the job he should stand aside 🙂
Matt
[Yes, Maronite Christians I believe. Which is to say, in full religious communion with the Roman Catholic Church (it is proper to refer to Maronites as “Catholics”), but from a different cultural perspective than Western Catholicism.]
Maronites are part of the Catholic Church, they are not “Roman” Catholics. They are Maronite Catholics, like Ukrainian Catholics, Melkite Catholics, Caldean Catholics, Assyrian Catholics, etc. Western Catholics are Latin Rite Catholics.
“Roman Catholic” is a protestant term used in the English speaking world.
[“Why swear? Shows a lack of language skills.”]
I agree, but Fairfax can’t help themselves.
What does Abbott have to do with the landslide win in NSW?
Wasn’t all these state election a mandate on his leadership according to Fairfax? Just not this one? FFS
ESJ @400:
[According to the current figures the ALP needs a uniform 7.2 per cent swing to win government in 2019 as a minority,]
If there’s one lesson that everyone should take home from this election, it’s this: swings are seldom uniform. And apparently especially not in NSW, the State of Wild Political Swings.
Dave @416:
[abbott is in government – if he is not up to the job he should stand aside]
Just ignore TrueBlueTroll. Anything to shiv Labor, that’s his motto. He was talking up a storm about Newman retaining office as an out-of-Parliament Premier on Queensland’s election day.
@411
Just like Tony Abbott in opposition, eh?
swamprat@409
[yes, Baird seems to be more Labor than Labor!! ]
Tell that to the farmers effected.
baird is the government – his bailiwick.
Sorry leftwingpinko what was I thinking 🙂
The CSG exploration licences that cover the Northern Rivers (Ballina, Lismore & Clarence electorates) were renewed by the Baird Government in November 2014.
The Lib/Nat Coalition government setup taxpaper funded CSG information offices throughout rural NSW to promote CSG. The first was opened in Casino and there are now 19 throughout NSW. There is also a NSW Government website that promotes CSG complete with a picture of Anthony Roberts, the Minister for CSG.
[ Just ignore TrueBlueTroll ]
Nope. When he is all aggro like this he makes serious mistakes.
Don’t you truthie 😀
Expat 414 here are the seats in order on a pendulum (yes I am writing. Everything off according to the abc computer forecasts )
East hills 1.0
Tweed 1.8
Monaro 2.0
Coogee 2.2
Upper hunter 3.5
Penrith 6.0
Oatley 6.9
Healthcote 7.2
Goulburn 7.3
Bega 7.5
Kiama 7.9
Seven hills 8.2
Hols worthy 8.9
Riverstone 9.8
That’s why I reckon this a terrible result for labor which is worth two terms to the Libs.
Swamprat @417:
[Maronites are part of the Catholic Church, they are not “Roman” Catholics. They are Maronite Catholics, like Ukrainian Catholics, Melkite Catholics, Caldean Catholics, Assyrian Catholics, etc. Western Catholics are Latin Rite Catholics.
“Roman Catholic” is a protestant term used in the English speaking world.]
I thought that the Maronite Church was in full communion with Rome?
So new Pendulum with the corrections is as follows (???):
East hills 1.0 %
Tweed 1.8 %
Coogee 2.2 %
Monaro 2.0 %
Upper Hunter 3.5 %
Penrith 6.0 %
Oatley 6.9 %
Healthcote 7.2 %
Hols worthy 8.9 %
(That assumes Gosford and Strathfield stay with the ALP)
Let me work out how this works Dave
Labor Wins in State Election = Abbott has to go
Coalition Wins in State Election = Abbott still has to go
Fairfax failed in Regime Change, they should give up.
Abbott is here to stay, Shortens leadership is in question
ESJ @425:
Superficially accurate, but as I noted – don’t bet on a uniform swing. They didn’t happen in 2011 or tonight, and I wouldn’t predict them to happen in four years, either.
Having said that, if Labor wants to win, it does have to find a way to get past that firebreak of seats, yes.
TBA@406
[landslide NSW Win]
I used to think you where a troll, but clearly your delusional.
Correct happiness.
TrueBlueAussie@418
watson watch
Viewed from afar I would not expect this result to do anything to slow the spread of CSG. It might even accelerate it.
the Libs will care nothing that the Nats might have lost seats over this. They have a healthy majority and it will be all systems go for the next few years. After all, when people see the “benefits” of CSG they will surely change their minds
With 53 seats (current prediction):
The ALP needs 6.9% to get the LNP to 46 seats (possible ALP minority govt)
or >8.9% to get to 43 seats (I haven’t gone far enough to see what they need for 47)
TrueBlueAussie@428
Work this out –
Marshalls Gone in SA – He couldn’t beat a 4 th term Labour Govt.
Napthines Gone in Vic – a first term Govt rolled.
Campbells Gone in Qld – a first term Govt rolled.
Abbott told to piss off and shut his gob and NSW tories win ?
Of course the libs could have a term like labors 2007-2011 effort in which case all bets would be off, but it seems unlikely, I think the nsw libs will actually enjoy the fruits of victory and be quite disciplined to get a third term in 2019. Look how they started very moderately and pragmatically.
Unfortunately nsw labor will need to show fundamental change to get past that firebreak. You can see some of those seats going in 2019 but they may just have to rely on Father Time to remove fully the stench of 2007-2011.
Matt
[I thought that the Maronite Church was in full communion with Rome?]
Yes it is.
Happiness @434:
What’s the estimated TPP Statewide? I’d imagine it’s something like 54-46 LNP/ALP.
[“I used to think you where a troll, but clearly your delusional.”]
Roughly 20 Seats more than the opposition, what would you call it smartie?
Matt:
Good question, was just wondering that myself!
Lets say 55-45….that means the ALP needs >54% to win on a uniform swing.
Time for redistricting, me thinks! I think it is very bad when you get 53% of the TPP and don’t win government (like in SA). When the people speak, electorates should listen.
Solution: NSW Labor should promise to introduce SA style fairness police.
Hmmm, theres a few seats like Gosford, Strathfield and The Entrance in doubt – which either go ALP or would presumably be within a 3.5% swing margin.
Why am i hoping there’s a couple of Nat v Green or Coalition v Independent seats that are closer than Penrith? def not??
give all seats up to Upper Hunter away (inc the three in doubts above) and do the Coalition still have a majority?
if yes, then am inclined to agree with you ESJ @ 425, though a guaranteed two terms for Coaltion is a stretch. Would need a landslide from even today’s result tho.
Shame Foley didnt lose his seat it would be good pay back for what happened to Campbell Newman.
Guess Auburn will vote for a burnt stick as long as it’s Labor
ESJ @436:
[Of course the libs could have a term like labors 2007-2011 effort in which case all bets would be off, but it seems unlikely, I think the nsw libs will actually enjoy the fruits of victory and be quite disciplined to get a third term in 2019. Look how they started very moderately and pragmatically.]
The fruits of victory can sometimes go to one’s head – much like an excellent Vodka 😛
More seriously, a lot depends on what Baird does with his second term. While the NSW ALP desperately needs to clean house (to rid itself of the stench of that rat Obeid, if nothing else!), I think two terms in Opposition will induce a willingness to look at them more seriously irrespective of what concrete steps they take to do so.
And while people voted LNP, Baird shouldn’t ignore the (many) surveys that accurately predicted his re-election…while at the same time indicating that electricity privatization is about as popular as typhus.
If he wants to proceed with that idea, he’d best do a very convincing job of selling it…
Coalition likely = 53 seats (but could be min 52 to max 55 by my reckoning)
[Expat Follower
….give all seats up to Upper Hunter away (inc the three in doubts above) and do the Coalition still have a majority?]
Yes by my calculations.
[if yes, then am inclined to agree with you ESJ @ 425, though a guaranteed two terms for Coaltion is a stretch. Would need a landslide from even today’s result tho.]
TrueBlueAussie@443
He won his seat sunshine. He won.
Aint life Grand!
Happiness @440:
[Matt:
Good question, was just wondering that myself!
Lets say 55-45….that means the ALP needs >54% to win on a uniform swing.
Time for redistricting, me thinks! I think it is very bad when you get 53% of the TPP and don’t win government (like in SA). When the people speak, electorates should listen.]
Don’t break out the atlases just yet…
Recall that one reason Marshall lost was that the big swings were in seats he already held, or really safe Labor seats. Very few of the (largely suburban) marginals in SA swung toward the Liberals in any meaningful fashion, which indicates a poor campaign rather than gerrymandering.
Despite his pain being somewhat self-inflicted, I did rather sympathise with the poor guy, though. Falling short on 53% TPP….
ESJ @441:
[Solution: NSW Labor should promise to introduce SA style fairness police.]
Eh, what? Elaborate, please.
Expat 442 I’ve written off all those seats to the alp already.
Matt 444 – fair comment , hubris can infect many a successful politician .
but for Qld craziness, one would ordinarily have expected the degree of majority attained in NSW (~50) to be good for 3 terms. Apart from Qld just now in 1 term (which is unprecedented), can anyone think of a similar sized majority (>30-35) that was even turned around in 2 elections anywhere? Am sure a couple, but overwhelming % surely not?