New South Wales election live

Sunday

6pm. The Nationals have roared back into contention in Lismore with the counting of 504 postal votes, 56.9% of which have been primary votes for the Nationals. This is 17.5% higher than their polling booth vote, compared with only an 8.2% difference in 2011. The ABC is saying the Greens are on 50.4% two-party preferred, but I’m presuming this is based on a speculative preference flow – if you’re out there Antony, clarification would be much appreciated. The NSWEC has pulled its original preference count and is telling us we won’t get anything back until “the Distribution of Preferences has been completed for all Districts and candidates have been declared elected”, which strongly suggests to me there’s no new indicative count being done. In any case, if the ABC preference flow is correct, it would seem extremely likely that the postal trend will continue decisively in the Nationals favour.

1am. As best as I can tell, the two-party swing has been 9.4%, suggesting a final result of 54.8% for the Coalition and 45.2% for Labor, with preferences breaking about 33% to Labor and 19% to the Coalition, with 48% exhausting. This compares with 24%, 21% and 55% in 2011 – using those numbers would have caused you to overstate the Coalition two-party vote by a bit over 1%. The change in preference behaviour is roughly half that at the Queensland election, when Labor got 48% (up from 27%), the Liberal National Party got 16% (down from 22%) and the exhausted rate was 36% (down from 51%).

Saturday

11.31pm. The NSWEC announces counting has completed for the night. So there doesn’t seem to be much uncertainty left, apart from the narrowness of Labor’s leads in Gosford (0.6%), The Entrance (0.9%) and Strathfield at a pinch (1.3%), and maybe whether Liberal preferences flow heavily enough to the independent in Wollongong to endanger Noreen Hay.

11.16pm. Little further progress, except that the tide keeps ebbing towards Jodi McKay in Strathfield, who should now be okay with a 1.3% projected margin.

10.23pm. Not sure exactly why the Upper Hunter 2PP is entering in one surge, but now we’ve got 30 out of 45 and the Nationals are out of the woods.

10.15pm. Upper Hunter 2PP count now up to 16 booths out of 45, and the Nationals lead has dropped from 2.9% to 1.8%.

10.03pm. Earlier I noted the Nationals lead in Upper Hunter snapped from 0.2% to 2.9% — that turns out to have been because the 2PP booth count went from four out of 45 to 13. These are small booths so you wouldn’t want to be too confident, but it would still be a surprise if Labor won. In any case, the swing is a highly notable 20.3%.

10.01pm. Jodi McKay continues edging very slightly further ahead in Strathfield, her lead now 0.9%.

9.59pm. Antony explains peculiarity of Upper Hunter count, with lots of primaries and few 2PPs, and says on his view the Nationals primary vote is low enough that they’re in trouble. So we will keep that on the watch list.

9.56pm. Noreen Hay up a bit in Wollongong to 41.4%. Independent Arthur Rorris leads Liberal 20.9% to 19.4% — I suppose it’s possible he’ll do less well in late counting, which you often see with independents and minor parties, and that he won’t finish second. If he does, he’ll need a very strong flow of Liberal preferences. Whether he’ll get it is a question we won’t know the answer to this evening.

9.54pm. Another booth in Strathfield shifts ALP lead from 0.7% to 0.8%.

9.51pm. And now the lead’s recorded at 2.9%, so not sure what’s happening here.

9.49pm. Surprise late movement in Upper Hunter — 44.2% counted, 22.7% swing, projected Nationals lead 0.3%. However, there’s a big mismatch here between the number of booths reporting on two-party (four) and primary (37), so I suspect we may have an anomaly here.

9.45pm. 13% counted for upper house, and Land Tax Party’s vote has gone down from 1.8% last I looked to 1.6%. Probably nine seat to Coalition with one each as usual for Christians and Shooters, which would get the Coalition what they wanted, namely one cross-bench micro-party to sway rather than two. Too early to say anything with confidence though.

9.44pm. Another booth, another 0.1% on Labor’s projected lead in The Entrance — now at 0.8%.

9.40pm. Gosford right on the line, flipping between Liberal ahead and Labor ahead on the ABC projection with nearly every update.

9.37pm. ABC now calling East Hills after long have Liberal merely “ahead”, with a fairly substantial lead of 2.2%.

9.33pm. ABC now back to Labor gain in The Entrance, but all it’s down to is a shift in the predicted margin from 0.5% to 0.7%. With 56.6% counted, this needs to stay on the watch list. A long history of very close results in this seat.

9.27pm. Other than that, Gosford and The Entrance very much in doubt. But as far as I can tell, all other results are settling in.

9.25pm. Jodi McKay losing ground in Strathfield: projected lead now only 0.6%, and ABC downgrades her from win to ahead. Noreen Hay now down to 40.5% in Wollongong, to the point where she could conceivably be in trouble. Independent Arthur Rorris’s 21.6% to 19.7% lead over the Liberals is narrow, but almost certainly sufficient.

8.58pm. Berejiklian asks a good question about preference exhaustion, but it wouldn’t appear that anyone’s placed to answer that. My vague sense though is that ReachTEL’s projections were about right.

8.57pm. ABC determining no swing at all in Monaro, with Nationals margin of 2.0%.

8.49pm. Antony says Queanbeyan results indicate Nationals to hold Monaro. Labor concedes Newtown, says Chris Uhlmann.

8.48pm. Labor gains Londonderry, vacated by Bart Bassett, with 15.8% swing off a third counted.

8.47pm. Hadn’t mentioned Tamworth – Peter Draper has fallen a bit flat there, safe Nationals retain.

8.45pm. The Entrance very, very close. Ditto Gosford.

8.44pm. Berejiklian points to 12.2% Christian Democrats vote in Granville, up from 5.3% last time, which has evidently not converted into a strong flow of Liberal preferences.

8.42pm. As Antony Green notes, Alex Greenwich’s 44.0% is well clear of Clover Moore’s career best of 39.8%.

8.41pm. Seat projection now closer to the respondent-allocated than the previous-election preference model.

8.37pm. Greens big show looking very much like the luck of the draw — their primary vote is essentially unchanged on 2011.

8.35pm. Prospect has now tipped over to the point where the ABC computer is providing 2PP projections and not just raw numbers (it took me a while to twig that it was working that way), and despite a slow count it’s calling it for Labor.

8.31pm. No Land Tax’s 1.9% suggests they’re a show for an upper house seat, I would have thought.

8.29pm. Long night ahead in Monaro. The ABC had a slight swing to the Nationals before, but now it’s a slight swing to Labor — 1.1%, with a margin of 2%. Slow count, with the picture unlikely to be clear until we see those big Queanbeyan booths.

8.27pm. Very good result for Liberal member Gareth Ward in Kiama, who has worked very hard from what I can tell, and is credited with a 1.4% swing. Nearby, Noreen Hay’s primary vote of 43% plus should see her right, despite the independent finishing second.

8.23pm. ABC calling for Londonderry, adding to Sydney area gains that include Blue Mountains, Campbelltown, Granville, Rockdale and Strathfield. But they don’t include East Hills, which isn’t looking good for them, or Seven Hills and Oatley, where the Liberals have won — never mind Coogee, Seven Hills, Holsworthy, Mulgoa, Parramatta and Penrith (if you were wondering about Jackie Kelly, she’s on 8.3%).

8.19pm. Labor now ahead in Gosford, which if sustained would add to Central Coast/Hunter gains in Maitland, Port Stephens, Swansea and Wyong, to which you could add Newcastle and Charlestown if using the 2011 election as your base.

8.18pm. The ABC computer has demoted Labor to “ahead” in The Entrance.

8.16pm. Antony not entirely convinced by his Strathfield numbers, but it would be very odd for the ABC to be wrong about a 3.7% lead with over 30% counted.

8.15pm. ABC projections filling out. Big Labor-versus-Coalition question marks are East Hills, Gosford, Monaro. Slow count in Liverpool and Prospect. Independent now second in Wollongong, which might be dangerous for Noreen Hay, but you’d think her 44.4% primary vote would be enough.

8.14pm. Despite hopeful talk from Berejiklian, the ABC is putting Labor 3.7% ahead and calling it.

8.11pm. Evenly allocated the ABC’s five undecided seats, result looks somewhere between the 2011 preferences and respondent-allocated preferences projections on my poll tracker — the primary votes of which are basically correct, with Labor 0.9% too low on the primary, the Greens 0.5% too high, the Coalition 0.3% too high.

8.05pm. Looks like a good night for the Greens, who might win as many as four lower house seats. ABC computer confident Labor will win Ballina if they get ahead of the Greens, but that’s not looking likely — Greens 30.0%, Labor 25.7%. The Greens are also well ahead of Labor in Lismore, so I’m guessing that’s looking a close-run thing between Nationals and Greens. ABC computer calling Newtown and Balmain for them.

8.05pm. ABC calling Oatley for Liberal.

7.57pm. I’m now getting that correction I anticipated in Strathfield. Now it’s projected that McKay is 1.7% ahead, although it’s not calling it yet.

7.55pm. Antony crediting Labor’s strong recovery in Hunter and Illawarra to electricity privatisation, and recalling something similar happening in 1991.

7.51pm. Overall, the election is playing very much according to script. Nationals in trouble in Ballina and Lismore, as forecast. Strong performance by Labor in Hunter and Central Coast. But Labor is falling short in Sydney, although an uneven picture with some stronger performances for Labor (Campbelltown, Blue Mountains) and some weaker (East Hills, Oatley).

7.50pm. Berejiklian calling Oatley and getting “positive messages” about East Hills, which would both be demoralising losses for Labor given their 3.8% and 0.2% margins.

7.49pm. But Greens well ahead of Labor for second place in Lismore, and surely looking good to win on Labor preferences.

7.48pm. Ballina on a three-way knife edge. Nothing between Labor and Greens for second place, nothing between Labor and Nationals if it’s Labor who gets ahead. Presumably Greens will win if they finish ahead of Labor.

7.47pm. Central Coast and Hunter going according to script for Labor. Very good result by the looks in Port Stephens; Maitland, Wyong, The Entrance, Swansea look like gains.

7.45pm. Monaro will clearly be close, but hard to pick given its diversity. You’d rather be the Nationals at this stage.

7.40pm. Very early numbers good for Labor in Macquarie Fields, and they’re well ahead in Campbelltown, looking good in Londonderry. Granville being called for Labor. But “Liberal ahead” in East Hills. Strikingly good result for Liberal in Strathfield — too striking I think, will want to see more numbers there. Still too early to say much about Seven Hills. Nothing doing for Labor in Sydney in seats beyond 8% – Holsworthy, Mulgoa and Parramatta looking safe for the Liberals.

7.38pm. Antony’s projected primary vote totals broadly in line with the polls, with the Coalition maybe a big higher than my poll aggregate. I’m not able to get a clear sense though of what preferences are doing in aggregate.

7.33pm. Labor “ahead” in Port Stephens, which is good news for them. ABC calls 49 seats for Coalition, 30 for Labor, one for the Greens (that’s Newtown I guess, but that’s off very early numbers) and two independents, meaning Greg Piper and (I guess) Alex Greenwich.

7.33pm. Seven Hills looking close. Sensing western Sydney slightly better for Labor than some commentary was indicating.

7.29pm. Liberals looking okay in Kiama. Only 3.4% counted in Wollongong, but the mooted independent is third on 18.6%. He’ll first need to overtake the Liberals on 21.4%, then get strong preferences to overtake Hay, who is on 38.4%.

7.29pm. ABC has Coogee called for the Liberals, so I ran down the garden path a little on that one earlier.

7.28pm. Campbelltown looking strong for Labor, despite talk they would struggle

7.26pm. ABC calls Maitland for Labor. Independent Philip Penfold doing well on 22.6%, but still running third. Elsewhere on the Central Coast, The Entrance remains called for Labor, and they’re ahead in Wyong on 4.5%. Liberals ahead in Gosford.

7.24pm. Blue Mountains looking good for Labor.

7.23pm. Greens looking strong on 3.7% counted in Newtown; close on Balmain in 1.4%. Early days yet in both.

7.22pm. Greg Piper returned in Lake Macquarie.

7.20pm. Still only 5.4% counted, but Ballina looking either Labor or Greens, barring a late Nationals recovery. No worries for the Nationals in Clarence though, and likely to get home in Tweed.

7.19pm. Remarkably strong early results for the Liberals in Oatley, with 4.8% counted.

7.18pm. Antony’s display has Nats “ahead” rather than confirmed in Lismore.

7.17pm. Greens matching it with Labor on 2.7% counted in Heffron, but no idea what booth it is — Greens vote is strong here at the northern, city end of the seat.

7.15pm. ABC computer calling Goulburn for the Liberals.

7.14pm. The ABC computer is calling Lismore for the Nationals, but the question is whether a Nationals-versus-Greens result might tell a different story.

7.13pm. Antony talking up the Liberals in a few seats where I’m not seeing numbers yet. Berejiklian says they’re “looking like a chance” in The Entrance, but I’m not sure if she’s actually looked at the figures.

7.12pm. ABC computer calls The Entrance for Labor from 16.3% counted.

7.12pm. First numbers from Tweed have 18.0% swing to Labor with Nationals 3.6% ahead; 4.9% counted.

7.11pm. And Antony cautious says ABC computer “indicative” of Coalition victory.

7.10pm. Antony brings up bad early number for Labor in Monaro, but cautions the seat will be decided in Queanbeyan rather than these rural areas, where things could be very different.

7.09pm. Lineball between Labor and Greens for second place in Lismore, but with Labor looking to be falling short if it’s them.

7.05pm. Not sure what’s going on in Coogee. Antony is obviously seeing something different from me, because I just heard him refer to encouraging numbers for Liberal member Bruce Notley-Smith. And the ABC numbers I was just citing have essentially disappeared – now they’ve got a 2PP with only 141 votes counted.

7.03pm. Encouraging numbers for Labor in Coogee — 6.7% counted, 9.4% swing, Labor 1.1% ahead.

7.02pm. Richo on Sky appears to suggest he’s thinking the Greens will win Lismore.

7.01pm. Antony brings up a Goulburn two-party result that bears out what I just said — big swing, but not big enough.

6.59pm. Very strong looking results for the Greens in Ballina, even taking the booths into account, but unfortunately here too the notional count is Nationals-versus-Labor.

6.56pm. It’s actually looking like Pru Goward is down about 20% on the primary vote with Labor up 4%. That’s still not enough to account for her 26.8% margin.

6.52pm. The most advanced count is in the who-cares electorate of Cootamundra.

6.49pm. Early figures for Goulburn look superficially good for Pru Goward, giving her 53.2% of the primary vote, but there’s nothing in from Goulburn proper.

6.46pm. Greens on 29.9% and Nationals on 40.8% in Lismore, suggesting preferences from the 23.8% Labor vote will be decisive, which is no surprise. Antony appears to be doing an estimated Nationals-versus-Greens throw, but the NSWEC count is Nationals-versus-Labor.

6.40pm. Most a case of primary vote counts in safe Nationals areas at this stage. Still not seeing any two-party counts so I can get a bead on preferences.

6.37pm. Lismore is geared for a Nationals-versus-Greens count, which is good. With 1% counted, there’s a projected Nationals margin of 2.4%, but it’s too early at this point. Meaninglessly early figures for Golburn and Rockdale, both lineball at this very early stage.

6.28pm. A few tiny booths in from around the place. One is Fairy Hill Hall in Lismore, but it only amounts to 62 votes, which seems a bit odd because there were 420 here last time.

6pm. Polls have closed, and we should get the first and smallest booths in in about half an hour or so. There are two exit polls doing the rounds, ReachTEL with 54-46 to the Coalition, Galaxy with 55-45 from primary of 46% for the Coalition, 34% for Labor and 11% for the Greens – so very well in line with the poll tracker, in other words.