Galaxy: 55-45 to Coalition in New South Wales

The one-way traffic of New South Wales election polling continues with the final Galaxy survey of the campaign crediting Mike Baird’s Coalition government with a commanding lead.

The final Galaxy poll of the campaign, courtesy of the Daily Telegraph, lands bang on trend in having the Coalition with a two-party preferred lead of 55-45, up from 54-46 in its last poll a week earlier. The primary votes are 45% for the Coalition (steady), 34% for Labor (down two) and 11% for the Greens (up one), and Mike Baird’s lead as preferred premier has widened from 49-24 to 53-25. The poll was conducted Tuesday and Wednesday evenings from a sample of 1300. The results have been added to the poll tracker on the sidebar and it’s made a slight addition to the late-campaign Coalition uptick, boosting them by one on the previous-election preferences seat projection and two on respondent-allocated preferences.

Today’s news reports point to two dark horses coming down the home strait:

James Robertson of the Sydney Morning Herald reports a claim by Labor that “new polling shows it within a whisker of defeating Planning Minister Pru Goward in the seat of Goulburn”. The source is quoted saying: “We’re on [a two-party-preferred vote of] between 48 and 52. It’s 50-50 depending on preference flow.” The margin in the electorate is 26.8%, but Labor believes that to be a distortion caused by the redistribution. The western end of the heavily redrawn electorate is drawn from the abolished seat of Burrinjuck, where the Coalition stands to lose the substantial personal vote of long-serving Nationals member Katrina Hodgkinson. Unlikely as the prospect may nonetheless sound, Labor has enough belief in it to have sent Luke Foley to the electorate yesterday to promise $270 million in funding for a new hospital.

Andrew Clennell of The Daily Telegraph reports that Labor sources say the party “did not even expect to win East Hills, which is held by the Liberals by just 0.2 per cent”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

59 comments on “Galaxy: 55-45 to Coalition in New South Wales”

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  1. Looks like the NSW voters have made up their mind. Bruce Baird and O’Farrell have run a moderate and generally competent conservative Government. The campaign has been low key and not too dirty. Neither side will talk about the other’s ICAC woes.

    I think that a result like the Federal election in 1977 is more likely than a Labor win, but neither seem likely. The Labor base comes back but it’s hard to see that many swinging voters, let alone commited conservatives, will have changed their minds since 2011.

    [NSW election 2015: Private polls indicate rural swings to ALP
    THE AUSTRALIAN MARCH 27, 2015 12:00AM
    Ean Higgins Reporter Sydney

    The NSW ALP is increasingly confident of breaking out of its urban straitjacket after private polling showed it will win at least one regional seat and has a good chance in others.

    The polling shows the ALP still faces a tough contest in trying to win back a swath of seats in Sydney as Premier Mike Baird retains his popularity in the city.

    Opposition Leader Luke Foley will spend today and tomorrow morning campaigning in western Sydney seats described by Labor sources as very tight.


    Three seats held by the Nationals in the northeast of the state by margins of more than 20 per cent, Ballina, Lismore and Tweed, have been brought within striking range of Labor and the Greens because of demographic change and the coal-seam gas issue.

    The Labor source told The Australian private polling confirmed Ballina would fall to the ALP.

    Lismore is likely to go to either the Greens or Labor, while Tweed remains in play, the source said.

    A fourth seat in the region, Clarence, was edging into play.

    The polling shows big swings against the Nationals in Bathurst and Barwon, the source said, but not enough for Labor to win them.

    Monaro, held by the Nationals’ John Barilaro, remains a tight contest, the polling shows, while Nationals-held Tamworth is expected to fall to independent Peter Draper, whom the ALP hopes to entice to its side in the event of a hung parliament.]

  3. Stevey777

    You totally ignore the ALP sleaze, pretty widespread.

    It is not just a few “rotten apples”.

    The ALP is so out-of-it, it doesn’t even understand what a cynical waste of space it has become.

    No one wants the LNP corrupt plutocrats.

  4. I am in Ballina electorate.

    I will vote independent or green.

    The nasty Costa (ALP) closed our railway.

    The nasty Kelly (ALP) removed community land to make corporatised profit.

    the ALP, in our area, is an enemy of social values and a “buddy’ of private exploitation.

    Maybe in other areas that ALP is less Mar’in Ferguson…. who knows..

  5. Steve777,

    I kinda agree.

    Conservative in the truest sense. No surprises.

    There’s no mad right wing plot/ters for the left to fight against.

    No crazy Campbells and it also helps that Baird looks like a choirboy. Ive been hoping for a hung parliament, just for the mayhem of it all, but i’m sure he’ll win.

  6. It is of course very amusing that both Gillard and Foley are “left” ALP and both homophobes.

    i suppose we should be grateful: if they were “right” ALP, we would be all lined up for the concentration kamp.

    As “left”ALP the only punishment we have to experience is neglect and contempt.

  7. I think the left right thing is irrelevant to most swinging voters. Baird has been competent. Foley has been a reasonable campaigner, but has offered no real alternative as to how he would provide what the State needs. Labor has policy homework to do, as well as image rebuilding.

  8. swamprat, how can you call either of these people homophobes? Or is it LNP shilling? Gillard – stupdily as was the case with so many of her atrocious decisions and advice- took the pacifiying line on gay marriage for the thugs of the Queensland Labor movement, but was and has never been in any remote way a “Homophobe”.

    Foley back in he last days of the Kenneally Government voted for gay adoption to be legalized (as it now is in three states and the ACT) along with Keneally and others, many of them surprisng.

    Luke is no homophobe. And your attempted slur is extremely nasty.

    If you are blank headed enough to gauge ‘homophobia” on the gay marriage issue, I suggest:
    1 You’re probably not gay

    2 You don’t understand the outright indifference or even opposition to the legalized prostitution industry by no small number of gay people, among others.

    For the record I am gay.

    Its obvious you are not but you think you can get cred for throwing mud around here without any validation.

    Try harder next time.

  9. shellbell
    Posted Friday, March 27, 2015 at 5:13 am | PERMALINK
    Foley has not improved the ALP polling since his election

    —-this is astounding – vote went up, then down … foley was new kid on block and has reasonable attention and goodwill – then the campaign ….

    as for baird – ‘working for nsw’ piffle

  10. Its pretty telling that Foley is off to Granville today. A eat which Sportsbet has at $1.05 to the ALP, but I now suspect the Coalition is ahead in.

  11. Some of this stuff Labor are coming out with from their internal polling is bizarre. If they can’t recover East Hills they are hopeless.

  12. if one was the (ahem) campaign labor director one would know that half their parties and past leaders agree with baird on privatisation – didn’t they see ads coming – this issue was ok but needed to be part of suite of other positive issue …not allowing the wedge that has happened … in terms of party privatisation is not a black and white thing, and campaign is not a state party conference – confirms feeling at union leaders as good they they might be and trained to talk in close circles and also adopt aggressive oppositional stance in public esp against bosses … why not go for part privatisation say 20% and use PPP to null the issue

  13. @17 – it is bizarre, I assume it’s some kind of expectation control thingy, but even talking about East Hills is making Labor supporters anxious, regardless of the intention.

  14. nsw is not victoria or queensland …… read the leaves more. i am bit angry. how many gaffes can labor make – i know vict sa and queensland good innings but nsw!! time for federal intervention and transparent reform of party here … get rid of wollongong member to start with

  15. Geoffrey,

    I agree.

    The Victorian ALP were still well-liked, even when they lost. (A couple of hundred votes in Frankston would have changed the result.) So it wasn’t much of a surprise they got back in.

    The Queenslanders seemed to have managed to be reborn despite (becuase of?) period of mini-van opposition. That was a surprise, but I can still see how it happened. Shortly before she lost Bligh was riding high in popularity thanks to the floods. So it wasn’t necessarily malice against the Queensland ALP.

    However, “NSW Labour” still manages to sound corrupt. The words themselves I mean, not necessarliy the party, but I think there’s still problems. The corrupution was so endemic I don’t think enough voters have forgotten.

  16. As I said a while back negative campaigns work well when the person is disliked as with Newman however it was always going to be difficult to run against Baird. In fact it has likely backfired a touch and tomorrow could be more comfortable for the coalition than expected.

  17. Swamprat @4

    Likewise. Lost respect for ALP over the rail and the Central coast coal crap. The CSG debacle started out with the ALP in cahoots with the Nationals, playing footsies.
    Been voting Green ever since. Lots of locals likewise.

  18. Some of this stuff Labor are coming out with from their internal polling is bizarre. If they can’t recover East Hills they are hopeless.

    Some sort of “we’re the underdog” strategy?

  19. Albert Ross

    The current member in East Hills has only been in the job for one term and nobody has caught a glimpse of him.

    Labor have run a good campaign here and I think they will win.

    The margin is .06% I think he is gone but we will see tomorrow.

  20. Gary Morgan kicking off beer o’clock a bit early:

    [Last Sunday’s Liberal Party campaign launch featuring current Prime Minister Tony Abbott, and former Liberal Prime Minister, and Liberal ‘political hero’, John Howard has given Baird a boost going into the final week.]

  21. There is a ReachTEL NSW poll on Seven News tonight. Can someone in Sydney tune in at 6pm & let us know what it is?
    [Lee Jeloscek ‏@jeloscek
    Exclusive @7NewsSydney @ReachTEL poll results. Interesting results. 2 party preferred, leader popularity & have union ads worked? #nswvotes
    5:14 PM – 27 Mar 2015]

  22. Its starting to look pretty ugly for ALP.
    If Labor swings big in the country and not in the city then it might not translate to many seats.

  23. William

    Going back to last night and your comment on what I wrote re two robo calls from Mike Baird.

    I thought that getting two calls in two days was because the Libs are battling in this seat and Baird was calling in an effort to get people voting for the Libs.

  24. [an SMS poll? Hmmm – weren’t they Lib leaning in VIC?]

    A little. The main thing with them is that they wildly inflated the Greens vote early on, but this moderated over time. I think it’s pretty clear they were tweaking their method.

    In Queensland they landed too far in favour of Labor, but on 2PP this was cancelled out by the same error everyone else made, namely the use of previous election preferences. Looking at their results again, I see they had Katter’s Australian Party too high. I suspect they may have failed to factor in that KAP wasn’t running in many seats, so a lot of respondents got the option of choosing them when they shouldn’t have. Maybe they’d have landed nearer the mark with the LNP primary vote otherwise.

  25. MTBW, if the election was playing out the way I anticipated in advance, I wouldn’t have thought the Libs would have been putting any effort at all into East Hills, because they’d have given it up as lost.

  26. I’ve just been robo-called by Mike Baird in Bega. Not sure it reflects much except it’s a cheap way to keep promoting.

  27. Dovif Miranda it is thought may go back to the Liberal Party given an extraordinary swing the by-election – at least one of the psephological gurus was of that view – but I can’t remember who

  28. Happiness

    Ghost reports the same, as do some other twitter people.
    [GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes
    #ReachTEL Poll NSW State 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 54 (+1) ALP 46 (-1) #nswvotes #auspol
    6:07 PM – 27 Mar 2015]

  29. Will be interesting to see how the media spins a better than expected margin for Baird in relation to Abbott’s future.

    I guess it means he is locked in until the post budget period at the very least.

  30. [GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes · 50m 50 minutes ago
    #Morgan Poll NSW State Primary Votes: L/NP 49 (+3.5) ALP 29 (-3.5) GRN 12.5 (+0.5) CDP 3 (0) #nswvotes #auspol]

    I don’t believe it.

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