Don’t have much to offer you today unless you’re a Crikey subscriber, in which case you can enjoy a review of the election’s federal implications in the daily email, assuming it gets a run. However, there were two polls published yesterday that I can tell you about:
• The Guardian has a second Lonergan automated phone poll for the campaign, this one with a heavy-duty sample of 3215, and it’s a strong result for the Coalition. Based on previous election preferences, the Coalition’s lead is at 57-43, from primary votes of 47% for the Coalition, 31% for Labor and 11% for the Greens. Mike Baird holds a 52-25 lead as preferred premier, and there are numerous further questions on electricity privatisation and other campaign issues.
• As in Queensland, Essential Research has bundled together state voting intention results from the regular polling it conducted during the campaign period. The result is slightly more useful than its Queensland counterpart in that the bigger samples from the state allow it to limit it to the last two weeks, but that still leaves it with a modest sample of 659. In any case, the poll offer no surprises, with the Coalition on 44% of the primary vote, Labor on 36% and the Greens on 9%, with the Coalition leading 53-47 on two-party preferred.
The Lonergan result has been added to the poll tracker on the sidebar – Essential’s hasn’t because I don’t know how much use a poll conducted over two weeks is for purposes of poll tracking during the sharp end of an election campaign. The Lonergan poll adds further impetus to an ongoing trend to the Coalition, who are up one on both seat projection measures.
No real controversy attaching to any candidates other than the potentially non-existent no land tax folk
The Dr from RNSH, Stephen Ruff, standing as an Independent trying to stop the sale of public land at RNSH is interesting though.
shellbell@1
Yet they have candidates in all 93 seats.
Foley talked of the threat from Chinese business and the polls and wires. I just looked at the census ancestry profile for his Auburn electorate (before redistribution). Here are the top responses
Other(d) 19,360
Chinese 18,276
Lebanese 9,239
Ancestry not stated 9,221
Australian 8,505
English 7,735
Turkish 4,967
Korean 4,104
Vietnamese 3,582
Indian 3,413
Who goes out of their way to upset 20% of their electorate a few days out from an election?
ifonly@4
To be fair, I think the local Chinese would know how to differentiate between the Chinese Nationals and themselves. Speaking as an immigrant, I know some people don’t really like the idea of being bought over by China…
Ok time for predictions!
LNP 56, ALP 33, Greens/Inds 4.
I can do a seat by seat analysis if anyone is interested. I would love some inside ALP intel. Outside left where are you, all is forgiven!!
Moderate, 56, you must be dreaming 🙂
PB has 56 based on 2011 preferences, which was one of the worst ever results for the ALP, surely preferences will be better for them this time.
I think 52 is the worst the LNP will go, with about 53.5 2PP (not going to predict the best they might hope for).
The LNP will lose a seat or two in the regions with big swings, but they will make them up and a bit more in the city (compared to the pendulum)
No need for the abuse mate – just relaying what the polling is saying. If this campaign went on for another week I suspect the Coalition would be over 60 seats!!
The libs have put the house on Baird, and nothing else [no plan B]. He has struggled to answer straight forward questions, the longer this goes , the better. He is a powderpuff shooting star, and will fizzle and burn out soon.Off to work at prepoll and annoy the Tories
i couldn’t help my self after getting 25 to 1 odds on labor in the sa election dropped $30 on labor in nsw at 26 to 1
heres hoping if they get up my shout
Outside left – so what’s going to happen pal. We can then compare who was right on Monday?
I have said all along that I think Cameron Murphy would win East Hills and today I walk to the mail box and there is a letter from a man telling everyone not to vote for a proposed Mosque in the electorate.
The Mosque hasn’t even received Council approval and already the dirty tricks are being played.
The former State Member and the former Federal Member sent out a flyer saying that we should all just ignore because it is not authorised but it annoys the shite out of me.
I wonder what the electoral commission would do in this case.
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/mar/26/in-vast-swaths-of-rural-new-south-wales-theres-only-one-election-issue-coal-seam-gas?CMP=share_btn_tw
[In vast swaths of rural New South Wales, there’s only one election issue: coal seam gas
CSG is a big vote swinger in the country, with many communities declaring themselves ‘gasfield free’. This is not just about the environment, writes our reporter: it’s also about people wanting to be heard
Gay Alcorn
Thursday 26 March 2015 15.43 AEDT
Bruce Shearman has handed out how-to-vote cards for the National party for 50 years. It has been a big part of his life, a big part of his identity. He has a certificate proving his 40-year party membership. He was the president of the Lismore branch on New South Wales’s north coast, until he quit a few years ago, and a personal friend of local MP Thomas George. When he and his wife, Nola, built their dream home three years ago on their cattle property, George and his wife gave them a rose to plant in their new garden.
“I have known Thomas for 50 years,” Shearman says. “We used to play cards together and one thing and another, but good friendships sometimes disappear. It’s been a sad time for us.”
On Saturday, Shearman, still a farmer at 78, won’t be encouraging voters to stick with the Nationals. He is too old-fashioned to disclose how he will vote himself, but he believes the Greens will get most support in Lismore, held by the Nationals by a normally impenetrable margin of 24.3%. One issue has shaken Shearman’s entire political outlook and is defining this election in large swaths of country NSW: the fight to stop coal seam gas.]
Just got my second robo call in two days from Mike Baird.
They must be worried about East Hills.
They must be hopeful about East Hills, you mean. That isn’t a good sign from Labor’s perspective.
What I can’t work out is why Mike Baird sounded so rattled today, whereas Luke Foley sounded quite relaxed.
Perhaps Baird is concerned he could blow the win & Foley is resigned that he cannot win.
Saturday night we get the answer –
[ Laura Tingle –
In NSW we have the perfect encapsulation of that political truism that 80 per cent of the message in politics is about who is selling it and 20 per cent is what they are selling.
Mike Baird does seem nice. And if that’s what it takes to break the decades-long impasse in NSW about electricity privatisation that will do.
But seriously. Politics really has become very, very fatuous. ]
http://www.afr.com/news/politics/tony-abbott-is-wrestling-with-himself-20150326-1m81mf
Shorten’s support of the data retention laws is not going to win the ALP any friends in Newtown, Balmain or Hefron…
Yes I know it’s a Federal issue, but people in inner Sydney, where there are several IT types, are talking about it as something that will cause a protest vote on Saturday.
moderate
Posted Thursday, March 26, 2015 at 12:08 pm | PERMALINK
Ok time for predictions!
LNP 56, ALP 33, Greens/Inds 4.
I can do a seat by seat analysis if anyone is interested. I would love some inside ALP intel. Outside left where are you, all is forgiven!!
—— yep some sort of turning is on – who would have thought – you have to have done something dumb to get this result –
I kind of think high 30’s geoffrey. Labor starts with 23 seats and it seems like they get 10 without breaking a sweat, chuck in a few more and its easy to see .
How do you get to 33?
New thread.