BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Labor

Despite all the fuss over Newspoll, this week’s reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate finds only incremental improvement for a government that continues to rise slowly from the canvas.

Another week in which the BludgerTrack aggregate has essentially shrugged its shoulders in response to a headline-grabbing opinion poll surprise, in this case the narrow 51-49 lead recorded for Labor by Newspoll. With Roy Morgan and Essential Research both going fairly solidly the other way, the Coalition records a gain of only 0.3% on two-party preferred, yielding a dividend of one seat in Western Australia on the seat projection. The Coalition and Labor are both up on the primary vote at the expense of the minor parties, with Palmer United notably hitting a record low in the wake of Glenn Lazarus’s resignation. Interestingly enough, both Labor’s two-party vote and seat projection are exactly as they were at the 2007 election.

Newspoll provided a new set of numbers for the leadership ratings, and as usual the trend reading is highly responsive to the latest seat of results. That means another improvement for Tony Abbott’s net approval rating, which is now back to what had previously been his career-worst result before the Prince Philip knighthood. Bill Shorten is down too, and it’s now clear that the change in dynamics after the Liberal leadership spill vote has taken a bite out of his approval rating. On preferred prime minister, Tony Abbott is now rating very slightly better than he was prior to Australia Day. Full results on the sidebar, further down from the very similar looking display for the New South Wales state election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,514 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Labor”

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  1. Golly..if the NYT report is about a real event rather than speculative, never mind about checking the mechanics of the plane, it might be worth more effort to check the emotional state of the crew.

    After the crash of a Trident out of Heathrow many years ago, it was identified then that the state of mind of the pilot/flight deck crew does have a bearing on safety.

  2. lizzie@85

    Raaraa

    ‘Our’ Fran isn’t Fran Bailey, who is a retired Liberal pollie.

    Thanks, I just wasn’t sure which one guytaur was referring to until I looked further into the context of the conversation.

  3. Lizzie it sounds like you have the wrong keyboard layout eg UK Keyboard rather than US.

    Hitting the windows key & space together will cycle you through the installed keyboard layouts. Om my machine it has the UK & US types.

    Just google “Change keyboard layout in windows8.1” and you will find many helpful links.

  4. zoomster@83

    Raaraa

    I know maybe through the whip they could be limited with what they can say, but surely some party members would have something to say about it.


    From memory, there were more ALP MPs than Albo expressing concerns – I think Melissa Clarke and Doug Cameron.

    However, this was in the discussion about the amendments – it’s quite possible their concerns have actually been dealt with.

    As for ALP MPs speaking out, once caucus has made a decision, they’re not supposed to – and remember, also, that Labor had a similar proposal kicking around when they were in government, so it’s likely that the arguments were well and truly thrashed over then.

    Were there any other concerns other than just the protection for journalists?

  5. Zoomster@101

    The giving of gongs/titles and so on is totally gender free.

    Just plain self-adulation and the, I suppose, human need for some of us to be seen as superior to other human beings.

    The Imperial Honours system is living proof that those who are “Sir” this or “Dame” that must, just on the basis of their title, be a superior human being.

    In the UK some still point to the fact that with a French sounding name such as De Vere or whatever, shows their ancestors have been in England since the Norman conquest.

    The idea being of course, that born of Norman blood (conqueror) makes one a cut above the Saxon nobody.

  6. Tricot

    I knew you’d say that – -but the context in which you raised it suggests that the issue came to your mind because Julia got one and Rudd didn’t.

    If that wasn’t the intention – and I’m quite willing to accept it wasn’t – it’s certainly the impression.

    For me, the Nobel Peace Prize was devalued when Obama accepted it. (Which might suggest I’m both racist and anti male, but that is not so).

  7. lizzie – well, technically the keyboard and language are distinct things and you should be able to say you have a US English keyboard being used with UK English language. I think it allows you to do this – if yours is similar to mine, try adding “English (United Kingdom)” – when you select this it should open up a little sub-tree with “Keyboard”, and under that I have two options to begin with – “United Kingdom” and “Show More…”

    If you select the “Show More…” you should get a huge list appearing, and you can select “US”.

    That should mean you have “English (United Kingdom)” as your language, but “US” as your keyboard which should solve the @/” thing, but not insist on US spelling. Maybe.

  8. lizzie

    …or take it back to the shop you bought it from, and stand there looking very cross.

    (How I solve my technical issues…)

  9. [95
    privi izumo

    “@joshgnosis: I think Brandis effectively admitted the stored data will be accessible through the court for copyright infringement cases.”]

    This is not what was stated in Committee yesterday. This is the Hansard report:

    http://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/search/display/display.w3p;db=CHAMBER;id=chamber%2Fhansards%2Fff30ccb2-1d3b-4838-87c3-199b1a919507%2F0374;query=Id%3A%22chamber%2Fhansards%2Fff30ccb2-1d3b-4838-87c3-199b1a919507%2F0000%22

    Senator BRANDIS (Queensland—Deputy Leader of the Government in the Senate, Vice-President of the Executive Council, Minister for Arts and Attorney-General) (21:17): For a start, we are not concerned with civil liabilities so, as you should know, Senator, copyright infringement is a civil wrong. This scheme only gives the criminal law enforcement agencies and the principal economic regulators the power to access metadata. So that is the first point.

    The second point: you really trivialise the argument, with all due respect, Senator Wright, when you imagine that people like the Australian Federal Police, the Australian Crime Commission, the state and state and territory police forces and anticorruption authorities are going to use this very complex investigative tool to chase traffic fines. Honestly and truly, Senator Wright, please bring a bit of common sense to this debate.

    Interestingly, further on these remarks are also reported:

    Senator BRANDIS: I will tell you why I am bringing up Professor Triggs, Senator Ludlam—because Professor Triggs was a witness before the second PJCIS hearing and she, in fact, addressed herself to this very issue. This is what Professor Triggs thought—from a human rights point of view, speaking as the President of the Australian Human Rights Commission—about this bill. It is summarised in paragraph 2.148 of the committee’s report. It says:

    Emeritus Professor Gillian Triggs, President of the Australian Human Rights Commission, drew a distinction between the magnitude of the privacy intrusion associated with access to telecommunications data by law enforcement and national security agencies, which she characterised as ‘powerful’, compared to the mandatory collection and retention of telecommunications data by a third-party service provider, which she characterised as ‘small’.

    This legislation creates a collection and retention obligation, which in the view of the sainted Professor Gillian Triggs has small—small; her word, not mine—human rights implications.

    http://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/search/display/display.w3p;db=CHAMBER;id=chamber%2Fhansards%2Fff30ccb2-1d3b-4838-87c3-199b1a919507%2F0382;query=Id%3A%22chamber%2Fhansards%2Fff30ccb2-1d3b-4838-87c3-199b1a919507%2F0000%22

  10. briefly

    The tweets I posted from @joshgnosis are from comments he is making about what Brandis has stated in the Senate just before he posted them.

  11. “@LiamPomfret: Brandis’ claim that #dataretention is only intended for serious crimes is hollow, given they voted down an amendment to restrict it to that.”

  12. Know how you feel CTar1 🙂 My fingers and brain have a serious disconnect sometimes.

    And those .0 versions are always crap, even the future ones.

  13. “@latikambourke: Comms Minister @TurnbullMalcolm: the decision has not been taken re Govt’s ‘substantial’ contribution to paying for metadata storage costs.”

  14. So this is what the Liberals have been doing hand stands over – a projected loss of 28 seats according to Bludgertrack.

    I know they’re desperate but that’s just ridiculous.

  15. Raaraa

    This speech from Jason Clare might clarify a few issues around the Labor party’s thinking for you.

    [.. the major telcos (Telstra, Optus and Vodafone) all told the Committee in public hearings that they have no intention of the reducing the amount of data they currently retain.

    In my view the real purpose of this legislation is not to stop law enforcement going dark. It’s more about consistency.

    It will require all telcos to keep the same type of data and hold it all for the same period of time. That will invariably mean that law enforcement agencies will have access to more data – data that is not currently being held by some telcos for two years.

    The real reason I think to support this legislation is this – law enforcement agencies access our telecommunications data right now – with very few rules around it and very little oversight.

    If the recommendations of the Joint Standing Committee are adopted, this will put in place tighter rules, and for the first time oversight of the agencies that access our data and their use or misuse of it.]

    So – without the legislation – metadata would still be retained and still be accessed by security organisations.

    Clare then outlines the key concerns around the legislation —

    1. Defining metadata.

    2. Determining who has access to it.

    3. Allowing individuals to access their own metadata.

    4. Data security.

    5. Prohibiting the use of data in civil cases.

    6. Costs.

    7. Oversight of the agencies accessing the data.

    8. Press freedom.

    http://www.jasonclare.com.au/media/speeches/2487-speech-telecommunications-interception-and-access-amendment-data-retention-bill-2014

    I don’t know how many of these concerns were addressed through amendments to the Bill, because (understandably, but regrettably) the only one the media was interested in was the one around journalistic freedoms.

  16. Zoomster – no – I think FPJG is well worthy of the title on her ability.

    No gender inferences at all. My main pitch was that someone was scoffing at Prof Rudd and my singular response to that was, as I said, the appellation says more about the devalued sets of gongs rather than the recipient.

    I was merely stretching the point to include such titles as “Doctor” which, when applied to some roles, is meaningless now.

    I am always intrigued, certainly in the UK, whereby medical specialists need to be called ‘Mister’ to delineate themselves from mere ‘Doctor’. Talk about snobbery in reverse.

    That Brandis too badly wanted QC rather than SC says it all don’t you think?

  17. [Tony Windsor in his book whose extracts will appear in the Weekend Australian says that Julie Bishop approached him during the Gillard negotiations in 2010 saying that Abbott was not doing it well. You know what to do to read this.]
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/julie-bishop-bagged-abbott-in-power-talks-tony-windsor/story-fn59niix-1227278707630

    Actually I DON’T know what I have to do to read it. I tried a couple of times yesterday with another item but failed both times. Can anyone wise me up please?

  18. Data rentention costs $400 million per year+ now:

    Josh Taylor ‏@joshgnosis 3m3 minutes ago

    The estimated cost to ISPs to block websites will be $130,000 per year.

    All costs are payed for by tax payers, no corporations have to pay any of these costs.

  19. zoidlord

    On the TPP. This is precisely what has been forecast, and Robb saying ‘trust me’ has been no comfort at all.

    [In these tribunals, outside the framework of domestic courts, they could demand taxpayer compensation for financial, health, environmental, land use and other policies and government actions they claim undermine TPP foreign investor rights to fair and equal treatment.

    Foreign investors would be able to take action against any level of Australian government – national, state governments or local councils.]

    Even Howard’s lot was better than this.

  20. zoidlord@133

    Data rentention costs $400 million per year+ now:

    Josh Taylor ‏@joshgnosis 3m3 minutes ago

    The estimated cost to ISPs to block websites will be $130,000 per year.

    All costs are payed for by tax payers, no corporations have to pay any of these costs.

    But if I log in from Prague or Mexico City or Kiev using my VPN?

  21. I see the reported story of the locked out pilot on the crashed Airbus has now been picked up by Ben Sandilands here on PB on ABC and some of the commercial outlets.

    On the one hand one hopes the reports are wrong, on the other with so many of this type of plane in the air, it could dispel fears of mechanical flaws in the plane.

  22. Can anyone think of a single correct judgement call that this incompetent government has made? (I don’t count the backflips. They were just to save Tony’s skin)

  23. [116
    guytaur

    briefly

    The tweets I posted from @joshgnosis are from comments he is making about what Brandis has stated in the Senate just before he posted them.]

    …posting false and misleading tweets…metacrap

  24. [134
    lizzie

    zoidlord

    On the TPP. This is precisely what has been forecast, and Robb saying ‘trust me’ has been no comfort at all.

    In these tribunals, outside the framework of domestic courts, they could demand taxpayer compensation for financial, health, environmental, land use and other policies and government actions they claim undermine TPP foreign investor rights to fair and equal treatment.

    Foreign investors would be able to take action against any level of Australian government – national, state governments or local councils.

    Even Howard’s lot was better than this.]

    Presumably such radical changes, which would permit extra-territorial claims to be raised in Australia jurisdictions, would have to be subject to legislative measures. Surely, they would never pass the Senate.

  25. Bill Shortens delivery at pressers is becoming more and more exaggerated, leaving him looking less believable.

    I’m sure he doesn’t speak this way away from the cameras.

  26. I can’t think of a more wasteful cost to the budget than the $400 million it will cost for data retention.

    Shocking waste by the supposed better managers of taxpayers money.

  27. briefly

    It depends what lies the government is telling the Senators, doesn’t it? What really got my goat was Robb implying that the conditions would be circulated after signing.

  28. Tony thinks that ‘metadata’ includes Skype conversations, Malcolm doesn’t.

    Tony:
    [“What we’ve seen in recent times is an explosion of different providers and a whole lot of different modes of communication. For instance, a lot of people don’t even use mobile phones that much these days, they use Skype and things like that. So, metadata and its retention is more important than ever if we are going to be able to track what criminals are doing.”]

    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/mar/25/malcolm-turnbull-explains-how-people-can-avoid-having-metadata-collected

  29. Interesting.

    [Previous research also suggested that humans are evolving more quickly now than at any time since the split with the ancestors of modern chimpanzees 6m years ago. The study, by the University of Wisconsin, found that at least 7% of human genes have undergone recent evolution. Some of the changes included the emergence of fair skin and blue eyes in northern Europe, greater resistance to malaria in some African populations and the appearance of a gene that allows lactose to be digested.]

    http://www.theguardian.com/science/2015/mar/25/study-shows-humans-are-evolving-faster-than-previously-thought

  30. lizzie@145

    Tony thinks that ‘metadata’ includes Skype conversations, Malcolm doesn’t.

    Tony:

    “What we’ve seen in recent times is an explosion of different providers and a whole lot of different modes of communication. For instance, a lot of people don’t even use mobile phones that much these days, they use Skype and things like that. So, metadata and its retention is more important than ever if we are going to be able to track what criminals are doing.”


    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/mar/25/malcolm-turnbull-explains-how-people-can-avoid-having-metadata-collected

    AFAIK, Skype communication is encrypted, and point to point, Australia authorities have no access to it unless they get a warrant to view it from either end.

    Unless the American authorities have access or cracked the encryption into it.

  31. 144
    lizzie

    I understand the point, lizzie. But signing things means nothing much. The agreements have to be supported by legislative measures before they have any effect.

    I am involved in exporting. I’ve seen plenty of trade agreements come and go. None of them have ever made the slightest bit of difference with respect to foreign market access because counter-parties do not enact changes to their laws. Trade agreements sound like they mean something. Generally they mean nothing whatsoever.

    The TPP sounds like a shocker and I’m opposed to secret trade negotiations as general rule. I think we should wait to see it rather than believing the tweets. Twitter is mostly a propaganda mill, as the disinformation so often re-posted here by other bludgers demonstrates.

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