Another week in which the BludgerTrack aggregate has essentially shrugged its shoulders in response to a headline-grabbing opinion poll surprise, in this case the narrow 51-49 lead recorded for Labor by Newspoll. With Roy Morgan and Essential Research both going fairly solidly the other way, the Coalition records a gain of only 0.3% on two-party preferred, yielding a dividend of one seat in Western Australia on the seat projection. The Coalition and Labor are both up on the primary vote at the expense of the minor parties, with Palmer United notably hitting a record low in the wake of Glenn Lazarus’s resignation. Interestingly enough, both Labor’s two-party vote and seat projection are exactly as they were at the 2007 election.
Newspoll provided a new set of numbers for the leadership ratings, and as usual the trend reading is highly responsive to the latest seat of results. That means another improvement for Tony Abbott’s net approval rating, which is now back to what had previously been his career-worst result before the Prince Philip knighthood. Bill Shorten is down too, and it’s now clear that the change in dynamics after the Liberal leadership spill vote has taken a bite out of his approval rating. On preferred prime minister, Tony Abbott is now rating very slightly better than he was prior to Australia Day. Full results on the sidebar, further down from the very similar looking display for the New South Wales state election.
William, on the top BludgerTrack 2016 graph of Federal voting intentions, which I presume is the 2PP for Labor/LNP, each of the lines of the graph is surrounded by red or blue dots.
I am presuming these are the values of the various polls of Federal voting intentions such as Essential, Newspoll and so on.
Are the red and blue lines themselves accurate connections of the BludgerTrack results, or are the lines actually themselves lines of best fit, with the BludgerTrack results also an invisible cloud of dots around the lines?
The graph below the first (red, blue, yellow, green) looks like it is the graph of primary votes for various parties, is that the case?
[Are the red and blue lines themselves accurate connections of the BludgerTrack results, or are the lines actually themselves lines of best fit, with the BludgerTrack results also an invisible cloud of dots around the lines?]
Lines of best fit. You’re perhaps being thrown by my practice of reporting how it’s changed since last week in the tables. That comparison is with what the model deemed to be the case when I ran it a week previously. Since the line of best fit changes every time new data is added, that will not represent what the model now deems to have been the case this time last week.
The answer to your other questions is yes.
So, just to clarify, there is no invisible cloud of BludgerTrack votes surrounding the BT line, the line is simply the line of best fit for the data points which are shown, and last week’s BT value (published as a number last week) may well be (slightly) different from what it is shown on this week’s BT, (calculated by looking at the line) since last week’s value is to some extent changed by this week’s poll results from Morgan or Newspoll or whatever?
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
The subject neither leader talks about – the pressure of NSW population growth.
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/nsw-state-election-2015/the-challenge-leaders-dont-talk-about-population-growth-pressures-in-nsw-20150325-1m7537.html
Clarkson will now be able to spend even more time admiring himself in the mirror.
http://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/jeremy-clarksons-bbc-contract-as-top-gear-presenter-will-not-be-renewed-20150325-1m7t4w.html
This seems to be a pinnacle of planning excellence.
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/school-principals-stop-kids-playing-on-oval-for-fear-of-flying-golf-balls-20150325-1m7jqa.html
Abbott is working towards another public putdown from Obama.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/abbott-government-resists-us-moves-against-coal-power-20150325-1m7mxr.html
Hypocrites? Us?
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/julie-bishop-looks-to-get-australia-back-on-un-security-council-20150325-1m7my9.html
Today the Federal Court wil hand down a decision on the legality of the use of certain cheap labour in offshore drilling operations. The lovely Michaela Cash is right in the middle of it.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/federal-court-may-find-overseassourced-offshore-workers-illegal-20150325-1m7b2i.html
Can I do the seating arrangements? Please!
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/malcolm-fraser-to-be-farewelled-at-state-funeral-on-friday-20150325-1m7jbe.html
So much for the concept of self reporting!
http://www.smh.com.au/business/australian-companies-failing-to-report-suspected-corruption-20150325-1m7fqo.html
Which is the bigger crook?
http://www.smh.com.au/business/you-should-be-very-worried-advisers-warning-to-client-before-leaking-his-information-to-ato-20150325-1m7h8h.html
“View from the Street” says that NSW election fever has built up to tepid.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/view-from-the-street/view-from-the-street-nsw-election-fever-heats-up-to-tepid-20150325-1m7k0z.html
Section 2 . . .
Abbott tells us we have an open-ended military commitment in Iraq.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbott-says-australian-military-to-stay-in-iraq-for-as-long-as-necessary-20150325-1m723e.html
Tony Windsor in his book whose extracts will appear in the Weekend Australian says that Julie Bishop approached him during the Gillard negotiations in 2010 saying that Abbott was not doing it well. You know what to do to read this.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/julie-bishop-bagged-abbott-in-power-talks-tony-windsor/story-fn59niix-1227278707630
NSW Liberals overtly snub Abbott and wheel out Turnbull in the lead up to the election.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/liberals-snub-tony-abbott-by-wheeling-out-malcolm-turnbull-for-assault-on-marginal-state-seats-20150325-1m72a5.html
Abbott’s intemperate attack on Gillian Triggs will come into focus again as he is forced to ask the HRC for an extension of time to develop policy on payment to intellectually handicapped workers.
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/mar/26/abbott-government-likely-to-ask-for-deadline-extension-on-disability-wage
Fifty shades of Malcolm Fraser.
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/public-service/look-out-abetz-industrial-action-looms-at-the-department-of-employment-20150325-1m7hty.html
Why the ACCC was so quick to jump on Twiggy.
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2015/3/25/resources-and-energy/why-accc-was-so-quick-leap-twiggy
Rodney Hogg reckons Australia will have trouble handling India’s spinners in today’s World Cup semi-final.
http://thenewdaily.com.au/sport/2015/03/25/rodney-hogg-india-put-aussies-spin/
Fred Nile’s Christian Democrats turn to deception says Peter Wicks.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/the-liberal-party-and-the-true-believers,7526
The 36 worst things the Liberals did yesterday.
http://www.ellistabletalk.com/2015/03/25/the-thirty-six-worst-things-the-liberals-did-yesterday-230/
Australian public servants have quietly been stripped of compensation rights.
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/public-service/public-servants-stripped-of-compo-rights-in-comcare-crackdown-20150325-1m7exn.html
Section 3 . . .
And Abetz continues to draw APS ire as his Department gets very close to strike action.
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/public-service/look-out-abetz-industrial-action-looms-at-the-department-of-employment-20150325-1m7hty.html
Michelle Grattan with some advice for Julie Bishop if she wants to get the top job.
https://theconversation.com/if-bishop-aspires-to-be-leader-she-cant-afford-to-make-slips-on-economic-issues-39325
Dan Andrews needs to get a lid on this – and quickly!
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/melbournes-billiondollar-rail-system-sells-passengers-short-20150325-1m7jze.html
The Liberals need to rejuvenate by taking on progressive policies. Could it really happen I wonder?
http://www.theage.com.au/comment/liberal-party-can-rejuvenate-by-returning-to-progressive-policies-of-malcolm-fraser-20150325-1m74l0.html
Alan Moir and the unity within the Liberals.
David Pope has Martin Ferguson dropping in on the NSW election’s big issue.
A disturbing contribution from Bill Leak.
David Rowe takes us underground.
[So, just to clarify, there is no invisible cloud of BludgerTrack votes surrounding the BT line, the line is simply the line of best fit for the data points which are shown, and last week’s BT value (published as a number last week) may well be (slightly) different from what it is shown on this week’s BT, (calculated by looking at the line) since last week’s value is to some extent changed by this week’s poll results from Morgan or Newspoll or whatever?]
“Clarify” might not be the right word under the circumstances, but it sounds like you understand correctly.
briefly@1255
This was solved using the existing pre-amendment legislation.
Looking at last night’s discussion RE: metadata retention legislation, I resent that discussion around it is dismissed by some bludgers as a “Greens ideology”. Some of us here who are arguing against it are non-partisan or Laborite as far as I can recall by their previous discussions.
The crossbenchers voters against it in the HoR. Is Cathy McGowan a greenie?
There are a number of crossbenchers in the Senate that are also against it and they vary in political ideology.
I see metadata retention as a right-wing ideology (but this doesn’t mean some members of the right would support it).
Give the discussion the merit it deserves, and don’t dismiss it as a party’s ideology. If you support the legislation, put out your points to support it, instead of playing the strawman and attack someoone’s poor argument as reasons to dismiss the discussion completely.
William Bowe@7
Thank you.
Raaraa
[Is Cathy McGowan a greenie?]
Nah, she’s a populist.
She has openly stated that her vote was determined by the number of people who contacted her office.
Raaraa
[I see metadata retention as a right-wing ideology (but this doesn’t mean some members of the right would support it).
Give the discussion the merit it deserves, and don’t dismiss it as a party’s ideology.
]
See what you did there?
zoomster
For someone who doesn’t care about it either ways, you are putting up a lot of defence for it.
zoomster@11
God forbid she looks after her constituents’ interest.
zoomster@12
Yes I do. I’ve given the right-wing a chance to defence this position if they so chooses.
Morning all. Thanks for the roundup BK, comprehensive and useful as ever. I see that metadata is being talked about on pollbludger (add my name to the list of critics) but not in the MSM today. Why is that? Is it too late? Are the media already muzzled? Was the bill defeated with Shorten deciding to protect people’s rights after all? No that would require him to have a backbone….
Raaraa
Having read last night’s posts (I went to bed early) the vast majority of arguments based on party bashing were dismissing ALP posters’ views as hackery.
[Yes I do. I’ve given the right-wing a chance to defence this position if they so chooses.]
Ah, no, you don’t.
On the one hand, you characterise metadata retention as ‘right wing ideology’ – and then immediately follow this with a request that people not simply dismiss the subject as ‘a party’s ideology’.
Metadata retention doesn’t fit in with right wing ideology, which values the individual over society (hence Thatcher’s ‘there is no society’ statement).
It’s the lefties who put society’s needs over that of the individual.
As for giving the right wing a chance, there are about four posters here who might be characterised as right wing, and at least two of them are just here for trolling purposes.
As far as I’m concerned the Pollbludger discussion of metadata has long passed its ability to enlighten anyone.
What I don’t get is why people feel the need to “win” Pollbludger. Having made their position clear, why not leave it at that. If you feel the need to lobby or protest, then do so to the politicians who actually voted on this or who might be in a position to repeal it/amend it when they are in office.
(Of course Pollbludger, and probably the internet, are clearly dominated by such arguments – R/G/R still needs to be “won” every time it comes up, Clinton/Obama, Greece, Ukraine, etc etc. All done to death so many times without changing anyone’s mind.).
A few people seem to want to rant at us until we all say “oh, well, you are clearly correct, bravo”. That’s clearly not going to happen.
I remain ambivalent about metadata retention. I would prefer that it were not in place, but I find the over-the-top lurid arguments presented here by those vehemently reacting against it to be absurd.
Jackol
I suspect some people do it (try to win arguments here) for a living, others out of obsession/insecurity. Personally false arguments annoy me, such as the use of crimes solved by existing laws somehow justifying new laws. Obviously false.
Two other stories I’d like to comment on before going.
First there is a Senate inquiry into Australian companies and foreign bribery. Good. Why is there not a Senate inquiry into domestic bribery. We have seen some extraordinary recent decisions on large infrastructure projects, that certainly demand investigation. Or are they afraid it might involve political donations to Australian politicians?
Second on the story about population growth and infrastructure, yes it certainly is a problem. Our population growth is at a record high. Our infrastructure spending is not. Here is the same story at ABC:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-03-25/australian-population-rising-fast-but-public-spending-lags/6348232
We are not even spending enough on maintaining existing infrastructure, never mind building the new. Plus the money we do spend is spent badly, as EW Link demonstrated. Yet sadly I see engineering students graduating here in Adelaide this year and unable to get jobs. Clearly, policy and budgets are not working in this space. I have made a few suggestions on solutions, but I see no evidence to date of either side adopting policies that will fix the mess. Without federal action, it is unfixable.
Have a good day all.
Socrates –
You’re oversimplyfing that fragment of that argument. But to get into that debate just kicks off another round of pointless position-justifying.
Mike Baird sounding very rattled on RN Breakfast ..not a good look for someone supposedly odds on to win on Saturday..
markjs
Foley unlikely to win but he’s giving it a good go.
Briefly wrote last night:
[Strange thing is, though metadata has been around for a metalong time, I’ve never heard of it being used to out gays, snare whistle-blowers, suborn journalists, blackmail Labor leaders or imprison school kids.]
Without wishing to join the argument, I think that’s the point of the anti-metadata lobby.
It’s the metadata intercepts you don’t hear about that are the ones to be afraid of.
Socrates
Like your point on bribery. It is a scourge FAR worse than even hard drugs in society because it underpins the foundations of trust.
I would be very happy to send people to jail for 30 years for bribery – or perhaps outsource a prison camp in Manus..
CTar1..
That’s my understanding as well ..but Baird sounded less than convinced of that outcome..
Very defensive throughout the i/v..
Socrates
Yes also on the infrastructure. Jobs for engineers now very scarce. I know someone who just left for NZ where they are recruiting engineers.
Morning all.
Professor Gillard is delivering a series of lectures this week at Adelaide University.
https://www.facebook.com/arts.uofa/photos/a.566923006681912.1073741828.563763263664553/927952253912317/?type=1
Interesting point re seat projections. It took Howard a decade to get to the 2007 Rudd-slide. Abbott managed the feat in 18 months. A sign of the quicker political cycle? Abbott’s eight times worse than Howard? Can’t give Shorten the credit.
http://www.crikey.com.au/2015/03/25/how-the-metadata-war-was-won-the-seven-tactics-of-the-security-elite/
Bernard Keane , today.
A bit of a taste of the above:
[A powerful, secretive clique within government has at last won a long battle to impose mass surveillance on Australians …
Labor is backing this ridiculous mass surveillance scheme that no one has been able to justify, even the most absurd elements …..
..despite regular demonstrations from here and overseas of terror attacks carried out or planned by people already known to security forces, and evidence from police themselves that data retention is little use in finding paedophiles.]
A bully and a thug in action (no, it’s not Tony Abbott ..this time)
http://downloads.bbc.co.uk/mediacentre/investigation-summary.pdf
fredex
nice parody piece, demonstrating how over the top the arguments against the legislation are.
Good Morning
“@AuSenate: The bells are ringing for today’s #Senate sitting. Just after 9.30 @KatyG_ACT will be sworn in as a Senator for the ACT”
Here we go again. No arguments, no evidence, no independent expert opinions, nothing but derision.
Fascinating how hitherto strident attackers of this government suddenly morph into acquiescent supporters of dangerous legislation, just because the ALP is too weak to seriously challenge it.
Are you prepared to ignore independent experts on climate change as well zoomster, because you are sure using the slithery techniques?
their….
BTW, I wonder what happened to Fran….
I for one miss her contributions.
Adrian
I am hoping Fran will be back after March 28
adrian
[Here we go again. No arguments, no evidence, no independent expert opinions, nothing but derision.]
I know, it’s a seriously bad piece by Keane.
[Fascinating how hitherto strident attackers of this government suddenly morph into acquiescent supporters of dangerous legislation..]
I’m glad we’re sticking to argument rather than resorting to derision.
[Are you prepared to ignore independent experts on climate change as well zoomster, because you are sure using the slithery techniques?]
If experts on climate change were silly enough to overegg puddings in this way, I’d be criticising them.
Fortunately, (i) they don’t; (ii) there’s no need to scaremonger on climate change, because the facts are scary enough.
It’s fascinating that posters who criticise other posters for not using arguments don’t use arguments themselves.
Hopefully guytaur. She was someone capable of independent thought…
[She was someone capable of independent thought]
And lots of it!
[I’m glad we’re sticking to argument rather than resorting to derision.]
Just describing reality. I quoted a few independent experts yesterday that you cheerily ignored.
On metadata.
There is no doubt Labor has been weak on this issue. Did not even turn up to debate in parliament.
However now its passed and waiting assent from the governor I think it would be better to focus on a rights bill.
It would be great to put in constitution but of course the valid argument of the consequences in the US of the 2nd amendment would derail any referendum.
So how to make it so governments are forced to respect the rights of all is a big problem. However I think its one that needs pursuing.
Oops thats GG not G.
Is Fran involved in the NSW election in some way?
sohar
We have no idea why Fran has not been posting. Thats why I used the word hoping as its just my guess
Confessions
Will there ever be a Professor Rudd?
[If experts on climate change were silly enough to overegg puddings in this way, I’d be criticising them.]
Right, so please be specific because it’s so easy to make these general claims.
Give me examples of exaggeration from any legal and IT expert, and why it is unreasonable.
Or you could even provide one, just one independent expert who supports the legislation.
guytaur:
Who did Katy Gallagher replace? I forget.
I think that the NSW election this weekend is as much a foregone conclusion as was the 2013 Federal election. Unlike that election, however, the passion isn’t there, the campaign has been low key and, as these things go, fairly clean. Neither leader or party seems to be hated, except by partisans for the other side. The Labor heartland hopefully comes back but the privatisation issue doesn’t look like it’s going to swing many conservative votes. As far as corruption is concerned, the two sides seem to have a gentleman’s agreement not to mention each other’s ICAC troubles.
So come Monday, hopefully Labor has enough seats to form a springboard for Goverment in 2019.
gigi:
Probably.