It’s been a very quiet week for federal polling, leaving the regular weekly Essential Research result as the only game in town. The fortnightly rolling average on voting intention ticks a point in the Coalition’s favour, with Labor’s lead narrowing from 53-47 to 52-48. However, the only change on the primary vote is a one point drop for Labor to 39%, with the Coalition, Greens and Palmer United steady on 40%, 9% and 2%.
Further questions relate to the Intergenerational Report, of which 45% of respondents professed no awareness. When prodded about one of its findings, 41% offered that more older people in the workforce would be good for Australia (notably higher among older cohorts of respondents) versus 31% for bad; and in relation to one of its non-findings, 46% agreed climate change should be a priority versus 33% for not a priority. Strikingly, quite large majorities said they expected children, young adults, families, the middle-aged and retirees to become worse off over the next 40 years.
Opinion on the government’s reinstatement of funding for the car industry was evenly divided, with 38% approving and 39% disapproving, which slightly surprises me in that industry protection usually gets the thumbs up in opinion polls, rightly or wrongly. Joe Hockey’s short-lived notion that people should be allowed to access their superannuation to buy a home went down better with respondents than with some of his colleagues, with 41% supportive and 46% opposed. The poll also suggests Tony Abbott was not on exceedingly dangerous ground with his response to United Nations criticism of Australia in relation to asylum seekers, which was found to be of concern to 44% of respondents and not of concern to 48%.
[ Wasn’t Howard going to lose his last 4 elections based on the polling this far out? ]
The problem for the Libs now TBA, is that while Howard was rightfully despised by many as an obnoxious little twat, even those people would grudgingly acknowledge that he showed some political competence in pushing his agenda.
Abbott, and the current Liberal front bench have none of that. No respect and little hope apart from the ranks of idiot RWNJobbies.
And, they are operating in a much more restrained economic environment that Howard EVER was. So, they are exposed as dud managers unlike Howard who had the cover of benign economic conditions.
TBA @94:
You really can’t read the BludgerTrack, can you?
Aggregate halfway to 2007: Coalition 50.5-51% TPP.
Aggregate halfway to 2004: Coalition 53% TPP.
Aggregate halfway to 2001: Coalition 48% TPP.
Aggregate halfway to 1998: Coalition 52% TPP.
Three of those four aggregates were actually optimistic for the Coalition, and 2001 can easily be excused seeing as 9/11 happened 8 weeks before the 2001 election.
[I thought News Ltd was tabloid status?]
TBA’s definitely ‘tabloid’.
guytaur@81
I am surprised Madigan supported it.
The way Family First’s Bob Day votes in the Senate, the Party should be renamed the Kick Family’s First Party he always votes with I.P.A Senators.
Swinging voters I have talked to dislike The Fixer even more than they dislike Abbott. (dislike being polite)
Imacca
Spot on. I disliked Howard intensely but you gotta give the guy credit that he knew how to get his way.
He must look at his successors and weep.
New Cyclone off QLD Coast called TC Nathan.
BK@95
He’s a New Zealander? Or are you? 👿
[“New Cyclone off QLD Coast called TC Nathan.”]
Good, we need the rain
Don’t forget what Andrew Robb, former Liberal campaign director, said on “Insiders” — if a government has been trailing in the polls for over a year, it will lose the next election, even if its polling improves.
TBA @109:
Only a Tory would say “good” to the arrival of a cyclone.
Family First are just your regular religious nuts.They reckon laws protecting workers’ rights are “morally wrong”. FFS
Zoomster @110:
I dislike absolutes: the Coalition kept government in 2001 despite trailing Labor in the polls for nearly 2 years.
Granted, 9/11 was a huge game-changer, but still.
[“Only a Tory would say “good” to the arrival of a cyclone.”]
Of course ignoring it’s path and strength…
Cyclone = Bad in the mind of simpletons
Poroti @112:
FF are an import from America – where it’s widely considered that labour regs are indeed morally wrong.
TBA
Yes just ask Darwin and Vanuatu
TBA @115:
[Of course ignoring it’s path and strength…
Cyclone = Bad in the mind of simpletons]
If it’s arriving in Australia, some Australians are likely to get hurt wherever it makes landfall.
And only Tories would consider that “good”.
But but but George Brandis SC + DH told us…….
[Police have confirmed they have accessed journalists’ communications records to investigate leaks despite the Abbott government’s insistence that journalists are not the target of its new data storage laws]
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/probes-of-journalists-communications-records-rare-police-say-20150317-1m1g9d.html
[“TBA
Yes just ask Darwin and Vanuatu”]
It’s not going over Darwin or Vanuata it’s going to hit a national park area where very few people live. Check the BOM
Cyclones were not invented by Humans by the way they are part of the natural cycle of things. Yes it sucks when it’s a Cat 5 and hits a town or city, but it’s a natural event and we just got in it’s way.
Matt
Hey, blame Andrew Robb.
TrueBlueAussie 114
As Del boy would say “Your a plonker”.
From what I’m seeing, Cairns is right in the path of TC Nathan.
Still a “good” thing, TBA? I guess it’s a “lifestyle choice” to live in Cairns, so the residents can’t expect any relief efforts.
Oh, wait – they’re white LNP voters. Abbott will fall all over himself to help them.
“Shit happens but I’m alright jack”. How very Tory.
[“From what I’m seeing, Cairns is right in the path of TC Nathan.”]
Put your spectacles on, it is well north of Cairns.
But with the BOM recent record on path projections and strength(apparantly the last one to hit north of Rockhampton was only a Cat 3) I see your point.
Labor are in bed with LNP over surveillance laws, despite large evidence in UK, USA, and Europe that has done nothing but cost money.
@TBA/124
You need new glasses:
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ65002.shtml
I have a bit of a mystery on my hands. The only external site I am logged into is Poll Bludger but in the last twenty minutes or so a Panadol ad has twice played on my speakers. I have no idea where it is coming from. A similar thing happened a couple of days ago.
Has anyone else here experienced this? It’s all getting a bit spooky.
Gee, Senator Leyonhjelm on 7.30 again! Must be a friend of Sabra Lane.
@Adrian/128
He’s Abbott’s best friend:
http://www.news.com.au/national/politics/liberal-democrat-senator-david-leyonhjelm-does-not-believe-medical-research-should-be-publicly-funded/story-fns0jze1-1227264514089
TBA @124:
[Put your spectacles on, it is well north of Cairns.]
Mhm….from the Courier-Mail:
[The cyclone’s expected track puts Cairns in the firing line along with Cooktown, which came close to being hit by Nathan last week.]
It’s almost like cyclones move or something. And I wouldn’t call a Cat 3 an “only” anything.
For any idioys in “only” land re Cat 3s . From BOM
[CATEGORY 3 (severe tropical cyclone)Some roof and structural damage. Some caravans destroyed. Power failures likely. A Category 3 cyclone’s strongest winds are VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds with typical gusts over open flat land of 165 – 224 km/h. These winds correspond to the highest category on the Beaufort scale, Beaufort 12 (Hurricane).
Darn, I’d say it’s being brought to you by the beloved Zip News ad that intermittently appears at the top right, which treats the user to video advertisements together with breaking news. You aren’t seeing the video that goes with the audio because when it runs, you’re down here at the opposite end of the page.
[“Mhm….from the Courier-Mail:”]
It’s in between Cairns and Cooktown. Put your spectacles on.
Of course the track is a guesstimate by the BOM so it could go further north or south.
Generally places south of a cyclone will feel more impact than those north of it so there will be some strong winds in Cairns if it follows the projected path, but not Darwinesque destruction as it will be 150km away.
Loving the Cyclone experts here from Melbourne though..
Darn@127
Google has detected the presence of TBA and is trying to be helpful.
TBA
Where in Qld do you live
Nathan looks like its heading straight between Cairns and Cooktown and a slight shift will see it hit one or the other. it is listed as a category 3 but RECENT experience of Marcia may see it escalate very quickly to a 4 or 5.
Bemused @134:
[Google has detected the presence of TBA and is trying to be helpful.]
-snorts- Don’t make me laugh like that when I’m drinking soda. 😛
daretotread
How fast is Nathan moving ? Usually if they travel slowly they pick up strength.
Senate votes down University deregulation: http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/mar/17/senate-blocks-university-deregulation-for-the-second-time
Pyne vows to fight on. Great, let’s make it the centrepiece of a double dissolution election.
Tba
Cyclones can change course and this one is not due until Friday. It could well vere and hit Cairns as cat 4 or 5
TrueBlueAussie 133
Loving the Cyclone experts here from Melbourne though..
Better than the one’s from cloud Cuckoo.
I used to think that the SMH, the Guardian and others were deliberately selecting those photos of Tony Abbott which happened to catch a dopey facial expression. Lately, I’ve been reading The Australian and The Daily Telegraph and I realise that he actually cannot be photographed with anything other than a dopey expression.
Seriously. Even his promotional material presents him with that look on his face.
That naughty sprocket_ is teasing me on twitter with photos of Santorini and his breakfast views over the Cauldron :devil: he is
Re Bemused @134: I’ve had this happen on PB – the audio for an ad plays and I can’t find it on the screen. I mute the speakers. I normally have a few sites open but it seems to come from PB.
I’m a bit disappointed it looks like the data retention legislation looks like it’s going to go through, but I think it’ll be as useless as the fifth wheel when there are so many ways to get around it for those who intend to do so.
Steve777@143
Never had anything like that.
Raaraa@144
Oh well, they are welcome to bore themselves silly reading mine.
Very interesting poroti@118.
Re VPNs the government will be unable to ban them.
For a long time they have been a key part of the internet, used by businesses and governments.
It has only been relatively recently that users have been using them to get around location restrictions and privacy.
To use a (very poor) vehicle analogy it would be like banning parcel vans.
Sadly the ALP support the government on the meta data retention.
There was a very good article in Fairfax on metadata by (I think) Ben Grubb that I have been unable to find.
The gist of it is that there is no distinction between data and meta data, just data with different levels of sensitivity. Usually the contents of a message are more sensitive.
A counter example might be a text message you send to your partner, saying you would be working back late at the office. Where as the metadata with the location might be a bar.
A good thing
http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2015-03-17/martin-place-lindt-cafe-to-reopen-on-friday-after-fatal-siege/6326914
shellbell@148
Read that article and it all seems most appropriate.
A memorial plaque, but otherwise back to normal.
The option of higher education for most families lives on, good news. The Libs had a weak argument as usual for privitisation, they just don’t get it.