Galaxy: 54-46 to Coalition in NSW

A mid-campaign poll for the Daily Telegraph supports the established picture in crediting the Baird government with a stable and decisive lead.

The Daily Telegraph brings us a Galaxy poll for next fortnight’s New South Wales state election, which finds the Coalition government’s two-party vote up a point on last month’s result to give them a lead of 54-46, based on 2011 election preference flows. The primary votes are 44% for the Coalition (up one), 36% for Labor (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Mike Baird’s lead as preferred premier is little changed but the uncommitted rate has dropped, causing his advantage to shift from 46-22 to 49-24. Luke Foley’s name recognition has improved from 19% to 38%, with Baird’s on 65%. However, the poll finds only 32% agreeing with the proposition that the Legislative Council should pass electricity asset sales if the government has a mandate in the form of an election win, with 48% declaring otherwise. The telephone poll of 820 respondents was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday.

Further public opinion snippets:

• Results from the ABC’s self-selecting Vote Compass survey, which has attracted 32,000 respondents, confirm an impression of Mike Baird’s popularity, with non-Coalition voters finding him greatly more trustworthy and competent than they did the parties’ leaders at the last Queensland, Victorian and federal elections. Averaging responses on a scale of zero to 10, Baird came in at 3.6 for Labor supporters and 3.4 for the Greens, compared with 1.0 and 1.1 for Campbell Newman. However, the survey also finds only 31% in support of the Coalition’s proposed sale of electricity assets with 55% opposed, rising to 60% in rural areas.

• Further evidence of opposition to privatisation from the Fairfax papers courtesy of Ipsos, whose last poll in early February found 67% opposed and only 23% in support when it was asked if electricity infrastructure should be partly sold. However, this became 46% and 47% when joined by the qualification that “funds raised could only be used to build other infrastructure in NSW”.

• The leaders’ debate on March 8 was rated a 56-44 win for Luke Foley by “Seven News viewers”, although I’m unclear how that was determined exactly. An “audience of uncommitted voters” assembled by Galaxy had 50 opting for Baird and 25 for Foley, with the remaining 25 uncommitted (note that these are raw numbers of respondents).

• The only substantive mention I’ve heard of internal polling comes from James Robertson of the Australian Financial Review, who reports the Nationals believe themselves to be under “serious threat” in Tamworth from former independent member Peter Draper, who is seeking to recover the seat he lost in 2011.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

56 comments on “Galaxy: 54-46 to Coalition in NSW”

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  1. @50 the adds are not a personal attack on Baird as I see it. Its scary music and stuff about him selling stuff the public owns to his mates. Very likely to be affective IMHO as the massive electricity price hikes of the last 8 years or so are very much on voters radar. I don’t trust Baird and I am not sure his surpassed charm is the asset folks think it is. He is merchant banker after all .. oh wait so is Malcom.. but he’s not running.

  2. Keyman, interesting comparison to Turnbull. Merchant bankers[vulture capitalists], oozing charm with no apparent cojones.


    Roundup updated with long comment on possible impact of Greens preferencing. Possibly worth about one seat to Labor but there are a lot of unknowns and it’s easy to get carried away with this stuff.

    What’s easy to miss here is that in recommending preferences in one quarter of seats they could be recommending exhaust in three quarters, which is a lot more than Queensland and may well dampen preference flows overall. But the heavy targeting of Coalition electorates is significant.

  4. Turns out they are only recommending exhaust in 10 seats. Online checker noted by Nick Casmirri on Twitter:

    Seats where Green preferences exhaust without reaching Labor: Camden, Cessnock, Coffs Harbour, Drummoyne, Fairfield, Liverpool, Manly, Maroubra, Shellharbour, Wollongong. Most of them utterly irrelevant to the 2PP outcome.

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