Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Essential Research records a tick in the Coalition’s favour on voting intention, and finds an even balance of opinion on car industry support, drawing on superannuation to buy a home and United Nations criticism of Australia’s treatment of asylum seekers.

It’s been a very quiet week for federal polling, leaving the regular weekly Essential Research result as the only game in town. The fortnightly rolling average on voting intention ticks a point in the Coalition’s favour, with Labor’s lead narrowing from 53-47 to 52-48. However, the only change on the primary vote is a one point drop for Labor to 39%, with the Coalition, Greens and Palmer United steady on 40%, 9% and 2%.

Further questions relate to the Intergenerational Report, of which 45% of respondents professed no awareness. When prodded about one of its findings, 41% offered that more older people in the workforce would be good for Australia (notably higher among older cohorts of respondents) versus 31% for bad; and in relation to one of its non-findings, 46% agreed climate change should be a priority versus 33% for not a priority. Strikingly, quite large majorities said they expected children, young adults, families, the middle-aged and retirees to become worse off over the next 40 years.

Opinion on the government’s reinstatement of funding for the car industry was evenly divided, with 38% approving and 39% disapproving, which slightly surprises me in that industry protection usually gets the thumbs up in opinion polls, rightly or wrongly. Joe Hockey’s short-lived notion that people should be allowed to access their superannuation to buy a home went down better with respondents than with some of his colleagues, with 41% supportive and 46% opposed. The poll also suggests Tony Abbott was not on exceedingly dangerous ground with his response to United Nations criticism of Australia in relation to asylum seekers, which was found to be of concern to 44% of respondents and not of concern to 48%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

754 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  2. Zoidloid..

    Serious Q ..how does a Govt block proxies/VPNs? ..and does the use of a public DNS, such as Google offers, get round such a blockage?

    Ta muchly 🙂

  3. OK ..so just about every credible economic &/or political commentator has effectively stated the Inter- generational Report is ‘rubbish in = rubbish out’..

    However, it’s apparently good enough for Julie Bishop:

    Ms Bishop told the party room that the report could be used to frame the second budget, just as former Treasurer Peter Costello used the first Intergenerational Report to justify his subsequent budgets.

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbotts-promise-to-balance-budget-in-five-years-raises-prospect-of-new-cuts-20150317-1m16dm.html

    This is a re-run of the disastrous 2014 budget based on the IPA’s wish-list & justified by Tony Shepherd’s utterly self-serving & shonky “Commission of Audit”..

    Laura Tingle was right when she wrote yesterday: “The budget is more than a political failure, it is a fiscal disaster.”

    Looks like Abbott & Co intend to compound both the failure ..and the disaster, with their next budget..

  5. Matt

    [we do seem to enjoy watching our leaders kick the powerless around.]
    We sure do. I remember being gob smacked at hearing how tough Howard was and what a strong leader early in his first term.

    I was very much WTF? as all he had done was put the boot into the powerless “single mothers”, uni students, Aborigines, unemployed etc.

  6. MTBW @51:

    [Matt

    I don’t like it at all!]

    Nor do I; but that doesn’t change the political reality. Sadly.

    Poroti @55:

    [We sure do. I remember being gob smacked at hearing how tough Howard was and what a strong leader early in his first term.

    I was very much WTF? as all he had done was put the boot into the powerless “single mothers”, uni students, Aborigines, unemployed etc.]

    Follow the money – that’s my advice. Media owners did -extremely- well out of the Howard Government, so they spruiked it at every turn.

    And like it or loathe it, the way the mass media covers events makes a big difference to public perception.

  8. [Nor do I; but that doesn’t change the political reality. Sadly.]

    I get sick of hearing this bullshit. How does anyone know that this is ‘political reality’? As opposed to political fantasy I suppose.

    It may be reality for a few hard right, 2GB listening, idealogues, but it doesn’t mean it represents reality for the majority of Australians.

  9. These dancey moms types, I consider to be child abusers. Exposing those kids to all that crap just to satisfy the parents’ egos. Tragic.

  11. [Bill Shorten has used a debate in Parliament over the rules governing order of royal succession to re-commit Labor to the case for an Australian republic.

    In a bold speech designed to distinguish Labor from a government which this year knighted Prince Philip – a decision that outraged voters and nearly caused the removal of Prime Minister Tony Abbott – the opposition leader said Australians no longer viewed their country as an outpost of empire, but rather as a proud and forthright nation of independent mind.

    “If we were drafting our Constitution today, does anyone seriously dispute that we would require our head of state to be an Australian, this is how we see ourselves, this is who we are,” he said.]

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/australian-republic-bill-shorten-reignites-debate-by-casting-doubt-on-relevance-of-the-royals-20150317-1m0zrp.html

  13. [Tony Abbott had some detailed advice for his MPs and senators at Tuesday’s party room meeting about their interactions with journalists.

    First, he said, they should talk about all the good things the government had done so far. When they finished, they should remind the journalist how bad Bill Shorten was. Then they should end the conversation.

    The advice came as Abbott told his party room the government was changing focus from the policies it has been unable to get through the “feral Senate” to smaller things that are “meaningful” to the person on the street.

    With the government’s higher education changes facing imminent Senate defeat, and other central elements of last year’s budget – including the GP copayment and welfare changes – also stalled due to Senate opposition, the prime minister insisted the government must nevertheless present a “glass half full” message by pointing to the smaller things it had been able to get done.]

    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/mar/17/tony-abbott-tells-party-room-its-time-to-look-on-the-bright-side-of-life

  14. Of course, calling a group of people who you need on side if you’re going to achieve anything ‘feral’ is simply genius.

  15. [Grimes was appointed after the government sacked the former agriculture department secretary and highly regarded public servant, Andrew Metcalfe, soon after the 2013 election – one of three departmental heads sacked at that time. Metcalfe was reportedly sacked due to his previous role as the head of the immigration department under Labor rather than his time in agriculture.

    Several government sources told Guardian Australia they believed Joyce’s style and personality would have been better suited to working with Metcalfe than Grimes, and the decision by the prime minister’s office to appoint Grimes to oversee, or “babysit”, Joyce had been a “big mistake”.]

    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/mar/17/paul-grimes-was-given-top-job-in-agriculture-to-babysit-barnaby-joyce

  16. guytaur

    So far so lucky. They thought the same in the US until the GFC hit and so many foreclosures forced prices down.

    I think the difference between the U.S. ( Ireland & Spain ) & Australia is that the the U.S. built huge amounts of useless realestate in areas wher no one lived or worked, funded by corrupt banks & hedge funds, so when the uselessness was exposed the mortgage market crashed … leading to GFC. The U.S. governmet should have bailed out the system & taken equity in the major banks as punishment for their greed, then used bank profits to payback loss of interest to tax payers.

    Realestate in Australia is much closer to Real value, ie replacement value, it’s generaly not overvalued, if it is it’s a fraction of the over value in stock market. Operating at ridiculous E/P ratios., pure speculation.

  17. So Abbott describes the senate as feral?

    minor party control of the senate has been a fact of Australian political life for decades.

    It is typical of the modern Tories that they can’t deal with it. If they came up with a sensible program and appropriate legislation I daresay they could negotiate with the current cross bench.

    Instead they thrive on confrontation and put people like Abetz and Brandis in charge of negotiation.

    They are getting exactly what they deserve.

    Even their allegedly hopeless Labor predecessors found a way to work with the Senate.

  19. rossmcg
    Abbott just can’t get over the fact that constitutionally any legislation coming forward from the Lower House must be reviewed by the Upper House.
    A classic dummy spit from a bully boy used to getting his own way.

  20. Reminder for those who care that there is a show on ABC2 tonight at 8:30 with George Mega where he talks to six former Prime Ministers.

    I runs for a few weeks I think.

  21. MTBW

    [with George Mega where he talks to six former Prime Ministers.]

    Already got the whole series set to record so I can watch at my leisure.

  27. For months before they assumed office, we heard breathless media commentary about how easy the new Senate would be for Abbott to deal with.

    If the relationship didn’t work out, I don’t think it’s their fault.

  29. MTBW

    Thanks for the alert. I saw Mega George on the ABC and he made an interesting point comparing Fraser with Abbott.

    He said Fraser went feral on Gough and created a heap of partisanship and was unable to do much in his time as PM. While Abbott as oppo leader “basically shouted his way into office” and similarly created a great deal of partisanship. His government also looks like it may not achieve very much at all.

  30. BK

    Frankly I don’t get the current Tory approach.

    Politics is the art of the possible. OK, so they want to reform higher education. Well why not start off with a workable plan and win people over to your side? how many cross benchers did they need? well apart from Family First’s Bob Day they now seem to be offside with them all.

    Crash through or crash was pretty much destroyed as a political tactic in the Whitlam era.

  31. “@ABCNews24: Cross-bench senators on deregulation
    In favour: Madigan, Leyonhjelm, Day
    Against: Muir, Lambie, Lazarus, Xenophon, Wang
    #auspol #highered”

  33. [ Abbott just can’t get over the fact that constitutionally any legislation coming forward from the Lower House must be reviewed by the Upper House. ]

    And the behaviour of his Govt seems to me to be making it MORE likely that people will want to try to vote in such a way that the party most likely to for Govt does NOT get a majority in the Senate.

    Trying to bully and shout what is widely seen as bad policy through the Senate is manifestly NOT a good look. Whatever you think of her, the comparison to when Gillard was PM, managing a Govt with a minority in BOTH houses AND getting legislation through as a regular thing is quite amazing and well vindicates Oakeshot and Windsors positions after the 2010 election.

    Particularly when it seemed that when the Libs came to power in 2013 there was an expectation that they would face a relatively Conservative friendly Senate. They have completely bollixed that up through their own actions and outstanding ability to fwark things up, and really, i dont think there is any chance of a change to that situation until they dump the current leadership team.

  34. guytaur

    I know things may change in different circumstances but we may be seeing more action on some of Abbotts ridiculous programs.

    Yeah!

  41. [ I know things may change in different circumstances but we may be seeing more action on some of Abbotts ridiculous programs. ]

    Yeah, like we need more political laughs. 🙁 If Abbott had any sense he would keep stum and low profile until Budget time the better for the avoidance of fwark ups.

  42. “@senatormilne: The “fixer” Christopher Pyne has presided over one more Abbott, budget wreck. Australia deserves publicly funded universities @NTEUNational”

  43. [ @danielhurstbne: Pyne has vowed to try a 3rd time to legislate #highered package: “We will not give up. This reform is too important” http://t.co/1ZYnzB75tO ]

    If at first, or second, you dont succeed, keep beating your head bloody against the wall. I’d say Pyne is probably becoming a joke to the Senate. We have “people skills” Abbott, backed by “crack negotiator” Pyne. Sad.

  44. [“TBA I thought polls didn’t matter?”]

    18 Months out probably not.

    Wasn’t Howard going to lose his last 4 elections based on the polling this far out?

  46. I see Fairfax is descending into complete tabloid status of late.

    Top news story the other week was Abbotts biggest Gaff with an online poll at the bottom.

    Then the other day we had the story about him eating an Onion.

    I mean I get they are pieved they are about to be owned in the courts by Hockey for defamation, but the organisation is really turning into a joke.

    And people complain about the Daily Telegraph?

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