After a slightly surprising week of polling, in which Newspoll, Essential and Morgan all placed Labor in the range of 53% to 54% after bias adjustment, the BludgerTrack aggregate finds a bounce back to the Coalition from the abysmal depths plumbed after Australia Day. The Coalition is up by 2% on the two-party and primary vote, at the expense of the Greens as well as Labor, and by 10 on the seat projection, with three gains in Victoria, two each in New South Wales and Western Australia, and one each in Queensland, South Australia and Tasmania.
Newspoll is the only one of the three to have supplied new leadership ratings, and since no new figures emerged last week, they weigh heavily upon the model’s current readings. This might be deemed unfortunate, as some of the Newspoll numbers look a little idiosyncratic. In particular, the minus 14% net approval for Bill Shorten is his worst in any published poll since he became leader, and nine points worse than any result this year. It may be that when the dust settles, this result will show up as a correction to the anomalous recent trend in his favour, returning him to his long-term equilibrium just below zero.
Among the many interesting features of the Newspoll result was the personal rating for Tony Abbott, which all but matched the results Newspoll produced a fortnight ago from a sample that gave the Coalition such devastating numbers on voting intention. Indeed, the latest Newspoll runs a very close second to the one a fortnight ago as the worst personal result Abbott has suffered in a poll as prime minister. The trend chart shown on the sidebar to the right accordingly shows no respite in Abbott’s collapse since Australia Day, in strong contrast to voting intention.
I can’t believe there’s a whole month until the NSW election. Feels like it should be next weekend or something.
“@GhostWhoVotes: #Ipsos Poll Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 42 (+4) ALP 36 (-4) GRN 12 (+1) PUP 2 (-1) #auspol
”“@GhostWhoVotes: #Ipsos Poll Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 49 (+3) ALP 51 (-3) #auspol”
http://www.theage.com.au/national/poll-to-firm-resolve-of-mps-wanting-to-give-abbott-more-time-20150301-13s0ox.html
[Poll to firm resolve of MPs wanting to give Abbott more time
March 1, 2015 – 6:07PM
Michael Gordon
Coalition MPs inclined to give Tony Abbott more time to recover now have a strong argument to back their instincts and resist any move to topple him this week.
The worst month of Abbott’s leadership of the Liberal Party has coincided with a slight improvement in his poll ratings, admittedly from a shockingly low base, and a significant drop in those of Bill Shorten.
The Coalition’s primary vote in the latest Fairfax Ipsos National Poll is also back where it was in late October, after Abbott’s performance on national security helped it recover from the post-budget lows.
The best news of all for Abbott is that the Coalition primary and two-party vote are higher in New South Wales than in any other state. If they were replicated elsewhere, Abbott would be cruising.
This weakens one of the most potent arguments of those anxious to move quickly: that change is needed to ensure Mike Baird does not suffer the kind of anti-Abbott backlash on March 28 that helped deliver conservative defeats in Victoria and Queensland.
This poll does not guarantee that Abbott will have until after the May budget to restore confidence in his leadership, but it does suggest that, barring a new trigger emerging, he is safe this week.
Indeed, results invite two possible conclusions. The first is that voters want the leadership speculation to go away and the government to focus on governing. That will be the Abbott camp’s take-out.
The second is that voters have already factored in a change to Malcolm Turnbull and have framed their responses on voting intention and Shorten’s performance accordingly. This is closer to the mark.]
It seems that the Libs instead of going for the short sharp chop,
Are going for death by a thousand cuts.
I feel sorry for the ancient Greek song writers, imagine having to write songs without the word blue. 🙂
Either Ipsos has flaws or their respondents have flaws.
Wow, that Ipsos poll will certainly cement Abbott’s leadership for now.
I think IPSOS will likely buy Abbott at least until the end of the year.
[The best news of all for Abbott is that the Coalition primary and two-party vote are higher in New South Wales than in any other state.]
And yet according to Reachtel 46% of voters are less likely to vote for Baird’s govt because of Abbott?
The latest Newspoll and Ipsos polls will no doubt increase the resolve of the anti-Abbott/Credlin team.
Murdoch publications will need to up the ante if they want rid of Credlin and Abbott.
[voters have already factored in a change to Malcolm Turnbull and have framed their responses on voting intention and Shorten’s performance accordingly.]
This was suggested earlier. Wouldn’t it be funny if the Libs mucked it up and appointed someone other than Malcolm. That’s in line with their lack of judgement so far. ROFL
Ipsos 51-49; just as I predicted last night. 😀
Now I suspect this will be the end of leadership for some time.
Toorak Toff @ 2200
In using the words ‘Under Labor’s current budget settings Maiden has truly written nothing more than a Liberal Party puff piece.
Labor does not have current budget settings, owing to the small matter of the fact that it does not occupy the Treasury benches and has not for nearly 18 months. Now while this fact has bypassed the strategy masters of the coalition, you would think a professional journalist might be slightly more aware. Maybe she was at the movies when the copy was due, so she just lodged the unedited copy from Hockey’s spin merchants.
I think the NSW election will be very interesting. The electorate don’t know Foley or his policies. With a good campaign these things can change very rapidly…
Don’t rule out a good move in the polls to NSW labor.
Tom.
Re. “Popular Baird”
A more accurate descriptor would be “not unpopular”. Up here in the Ballina electorate the Nationals are on the nose with their unbridled enthusiasm for CSG. Same in the Lismore area. A lot of farmers are waking up to their recent history with the mining mob. Plus the “bush” is no longer the preserve of farmers since the Age of Aquarius.
Toorak Toff@2200
Fortunately hockeys crap is being called now, he can barely take a trick.
WE’VE CHANGED!! Proclaims Luke Foley at the NSW ALP Launch.
But hang on, whose that invited guest in the front row? None other than Obeid, Macdonald and Tropedis favourite girl and puppet former Premier Kristina Keneally.(and before you uptight individuals cry sexism or whatever else these were the claims of the last honourable ALP Premier Nathan Rees)
Has NSW Labor learnt nothing?
It will be interesting to see the other polls out in the next day or so. Ipsos might be made to look silly, yet again.
matt31
[Ipsos 51-49; just as I predicted last night. 😀
Now I suspect this will be the end of leadership for some time.]
Hard to believe it. However, whatever the reason it helps Labor by keeping the pain going even longer. However, Australia is the loser. Still it would be interesting to know. Shame they do not collect information on why people change their opinion.
These latest polls that have considerably moved the Govts way must surely be disturbing to the ALP.
Bill Shortens ineffectiveness at this turbulent time for the Liberals should really have the alarm bells ringing.
Ignoring this would be cowardly. A change in approach is surely now required.
For a pom, Abbott always had the luck of the Irish in a way. For Julia Gillard, the polls were invariably bad, bad, bad. And yet Abbott gets some breathing space right when he needs it.
Which is, of course, wonderful news for federal Labor.
Rex D
All Shorten needs to do to appear more authoritarian/statesmanlike is to lower his voice a pitch.
TrueBlueAussie
[Tropedis favourite girl]
I am not calling sexism it is just that you need to learn to spell.
Tripodi is how you spell it.
If you are going to continue to be a smart arse spelling should be a priority.
I fail to see how polls swinging back to the Abbott Govt is a positive for the ALP.
What is the logic… ?
What on earth is going on with that Ipsos poll? What has they government done to improve 4% in the primary vote? Are people factoring in a leadership change? (Although to me that doesn’t seem plausible.) Can’t think of anything else really.
Rex
chill. The voters think the Liberals are going to do the right thing, get rid of Abbott and then change their policy settings.
It’s an example of hope trumping experience.
[voters have already factored in a change to Malcolm Turnbull]
That seems implausible to me. The equivalent of those polled gaming the pollster. I can imagine there’d be the odd handful who’d do that, but on a widespread level that markedly influences the overall result?
#I’MStandingWithTony
Clearly, the populace has been swayed by Abbott’s compelling narrative.
Rex D
It takes a while for voters to understand the background of political events. I think we need more time for the “real Abbott” to be seen and understood by more of the disengaged.
zoomster
If that’s the ALP response, heaven help us…
Yes, I reckon the punters have assumed that Abbott was virtually gone and voted accordingly. This is probably Turnbull’s vote, not Abbott’s.
[What on earth is going on with that Ipsos poll?’
I echo that.
Its most disappointing not least because it reflects so badly on Australian voters in a week where a major issue has been the misogynistic bullying of a woman who stood up abused chidren.
I shakes me head in disbelief and depair.
The polling gods have heard Rupe’s plea to give Rabbott more time..
Who would’ve thunk it!
[Brandis said he received numerous texts and visits from dozens of members of the government who expressed that Triggs had “fatally compromised” her position as human rights commissioner.]
I wouldn’t be at all surprised if this was true they have no concept of the rule of law, rules are things that apply to Labor supporters they can do whatever they want.
They are wrong of course the PM has fatally compromised his position as PM, and hopefully they have fatally compromised their position as Government, hopefully quite a few will be unemployed come the next election.
<blockquote.GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 8m8 minutes ago
#Ipsos Poll Shorten: Approve 43 (-5) Disapprove 43 (+5) #auspol
Wake up ALP !!
pritu 2214
There was a Victorian election a good many years ago, maybe when Kennett was still Premier. where the polls were off because of a huge swing in the regional and rural seats.
Rex Douglas@2229
Share your genius with us Rex and tell us what you would do.
Ipsos Coalition 49 vs ALP 51.
Quick Tony, call an election. You may never get a better poll than that. And at least you won’t have to worry about Turnbull or Bishop.
It could be that racism and inhumanity are appealing characteristics to the average Australian punter, hence the move to Tony.
[Its most disappointing not least because it reflects so badly on Australian voters in a week where a major issue has been the misogynistic bullying of a woman who stood up abused chidren.]
I don’t think Asylum Seekers being in the news, for any reason at all, hurts the L/NP. It may not really decide elections, but its an issue that for a majority of the population they’ve “won.” While that’s being talked about, things like the economy, health, education, are not being talked about.
Opposes apparently has a Coalition bias (I remember William posting that recently but correct me if I am wrong). There is almost certainly a Libs changing leader factor here. Fess: its not that 100% of the voters are thinking that, it only takes 2 or 3% to think that and switch from ALP to LNP and you get the 2 to 3% swing we see here from the Bludgertrack average. One in thirty voters factoring that Abbott is gone and hoping for Turnbull doesn’t sound like its too far-fetched to me.
Having said that, the raw numbers will be music to the ears of Abbott and his supporters and will probably save him on this coming Tuesday……
Frederick @ 2231
If it is backed up by Newspoll and Galaxy I will be both nonplussed and somewhat despairing.
bemused
For a start, grow a spine, announce some sensible policy and show the conservatives up for the corporacratic sell-outs and divisive bigots that they are.
[Dee
Posted Sunday, March 1, 2015 at 6:51 pm | PERMALINK
The polling gods have heard Rupe’s plea to give Rabbott more time..
Who would’ve thunk it!]
Does “Rupe” have anything to do with Ipsos?
[Happiness
Posted Sunday, March 1, 2015 at 6:55 pm | PERMALINK
Opposes apparently has a Coalition bias ]
Très intéressant…….Ipsos autocorrects to Opposes!
:devil:
Abbotts polling only went down because a handful of dickhead back benchers who want to big note themselves and cause instability.
Disunity is Death and when the Libs unite behind their leader they will win.
Ipsos is Fairfax, Happiness. Unless Rupert secretly owns Fairfax.
That should be fredex, not Frederic. Blasted auto text.
Happiness
Autocorrect is a very difficult fellow to live with, IMO.
Rex Douglas@2242
Oh well that’s terribly specific isn’t it?
About on a par with “Stop The Boats”.
Happiness
Lighten up!
Rupe’s been calling for more time for the Rabbott.
It appears Rupe’s prayers have been answered.