After a slightly surprising week of polling, in which Newspoll, Essential and Morgan all placed Labor in the range of 53% to 54% after bias adjustment, the BludgerTrack aggregate finds a bounce back to the Coalition from the abysmal depths plumbed after Australia Day. The Coalition is up by 2% on the two-party and primary vote, at the expense of the Greens as well as Labor, and by 10 on the seat projection, with three gains in Victoria, two each in New South Wales and Western Australia, and one each in Queensland, South Australia and Tasmania.
Newspoll is the only one of the three to have supplied new leadership ratings, and since no new figures emerged last week, they weigh heavily upon the model’s current readings. This might be deemed unfortunate, as some of the Newspoll numbers look a little idiosyncratic. In particular, the minus 14% net approval for Bill Shorten is his worst in any published poll since he became leader, and nine points worse than any result this year. It may be that when the dust settles, this result will show up as a correction to the anomalous recent trend in his favour, returning him to his long-term equilibrium just below zero.
Among the many interesting features of the Newspoll result was the personal rating for Tony Abbott, which all but matched the results Newspoll produced a fortnight ago from a sample that gave the Coalition such devastating numbers on voting intention. Indeed, the latest Newspoll runs a very close second to the one a fortnight ago as the worst personal result Abbott has suffered in a poll as prime minister. The trend chart shown on the sidebar to the right accordingly shows no respite in Abbott’s collapse since Australia Day, in strong contrast to voting intention.
The only possible reason for the improvement in the polls must be that those polled are assuming that Abbott is gone. It can’t possibly be anything that Abbott has done. He’s flapping around like a headless chook, making up policy on the run. Even the columnists in the Daily Rupert can’t be that persuasive. The attack on Gillian Triggs no doubt goes down well with the Alf Garnett base but would not win the Libs a single vote.
So we’re stuck with Abbott for a bit longer. Hopefully war doesn’t break out and the economy doesn’t go down the toilet before he’s ditched.
http://www.watoday.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbott-thrown-lifeline-in-fairfaxipsos-poll-20150301-13ryao.html
[Tony Abbott thrown lifeline in Fairfax-Ipsos poll
March 1, 2015 – 3:59PM
Mark Kenny, Chief Political Correspondent
Australian voters have thrown Tony Abbott a lifeline just as his internal opponents were shaping to dump him, with a Fairfax-Ipsos poll confirming a pro-government shift is under way.
In a result set to strengthen the Prime Minister’s hand in the short term, the Abbott government has staged an unlikely recovery and, while still trailing, is now within striking distance of overhauling the ALP lead at 49-51.
It is the closest the Coalition has come to being competitive since October 2014 (49-51), having not been in front itself since a brief period last March.
However, it represents a 4.5 per cent anti-Coalition swing since the 2013 election, meaning it would have lost as many as 24 seats.
Also concerning for Mr Abbott and his supporters is the finding that more voters would still prefer to see former Liberal leader Malcolm Turnbull returned to the top, rating him more highly in all 10 of the leadership attributes surveyed in the poll.
The Communications Minister enjoys a 20 percentage point lead over Mr Abbott among all voters (39 to 19) and deputy leader Julie Bishop is also ahead of Mr Abbott (26 to 19).
In a telling result, just 21 per cent of voters believe Mr Abbott enjoys the confidence of his party – a 32 per cent plunge in a year. Half of all voters (52 per cent) believe Mr Turnbull has the support of his colleagues.
The national poll of 1406 voters shows the government making up serious ground on the Labor opposition and Mr Abbott’s personal standing also recovering markedly, although he still trails as preferred prime minister against Labor’s Bill Shorten.
Pollster Jessica Elgood said the mixed results reflected several apparently competing assessments by voters.]
The key indicator, surely, will be Abbott’s personal ratings.
I won’t be much surprised if there is something slightly unexpected going on. For many voters, current events will a bit too much like deja vu all over again.
The same sorts of news reports they were hearing during R-G-R. The same sense of instability. The same lack of focus on matters that voters care about.
Maybe some people are sort of thinking: “I don’t like Abbott at all, but I like all this inside Canberra talk even less, so let’s allow him to get on with things and see if can pull things together a bit. He seems a little contrite, a little willing to change the worst of his policies. Prince Philip was damned stupid but it’s a while ago now.”
Something like that.
[One in thirty voters factoring that Abbott is gone and hoping for Turnbull doesn’t sound like its too far-fetched to me.]
Hmm. I guess.
We need some more of those Abbott BrainFart ™ leaks to really put the nail in the coffin
Then again, the prospect of a dysfunctional Liberal Party for the next 18 months may be the price we have to pay for an Abbott Australia
It seems to me that the alternative PM the voters want atm is Turnbull and this is what is being reflected in the polls.
Shorten needs to simply persist. If the Libs see off Turnbull’s challenge, then these polls will start to firm up for Labor.
I’d suggest further that once Abbott is seen to be continuing as PM, then the polls will turn against Baird in NSW. Like with Victoria and Queensland, the Libs have already been told twice.
If Turnbull prevails, then he will come under a lot more intense scrutiny. He might even have an internal faction working against him.
Again, Shorten will have to play the cards he is dealt.
I don’t think Triggs is any position to lecture anyone when it comes to looking after children. She is certainly no moral authority that’s for sure.
Note, these aren’t the full poll articles, those will be out tomorrow. More secondary questions, as well as a respondent allocated preferences TPP.
TBA,
She is the Head of the HRC and has just conducted a major inquiry in to AS children held in detention.
You are no doubt a Ian McDonald acolyte and haven’t read the HRC report. You can close your eyes and put your fingers in your ears, because you know that facts are a left wing conspiracy.
Basically, you are an ignorant boofhead who rejoices in your ignorance.
And maybe voters like the idea of a PM being pulled into line, to have his worst tendencies corrected by his colleagues – an opportunity never afforded Rudd (and I don’t say to reignite R-G-R debate, only to try to fathom what’s going on in voters’ minds).
bemused
There’s plenty of sensible tax reform policy, social policy and infrastructure investment for a confident, competent political party to campaign on.
High-end tax evasion/loopholes
High-end Super tax concessions
NDIS
Equality
FTTP
Rail
The ALP look weak and timid at the moment…
Why the Ipsos shift?
Is it possible that wall to wall campaigning by Tony in the last month & Bill no where to be seen tactics have given the Libs too much air space… Bill has got to stop the stupid singers, the only time Labor seem sensibly is when Tanya & Penny are talking.
True Blue Aussie – judge not lest you be judged.
TBA,
All your arguments have failed so true to form you resort to slander.
You may missed this earlier. Am I wrong?
[Barney in Saigon
Posted Thursday, February 26, 2015 at 3:43 am | Permalink
TBA,
You are a true liberal in the image of your political heroes.
You have demonstrated on numerous occasions an inability to use logic when making an argument and when all the facts eliminate any opportunity for argument you resort to vile and disgusting personal attacks.
All this suggests that you have a long and promising future in the Liberal Party.
You must be a truly wonderful person.
Well, at least your mother might think so.
]
[“Basically, you are an ignorant boofhead who rejoices in your ignorance.”]
Your ignorant of Gillian Triggs history. Specifically this part.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/meet-gillian-triggs-the-woman-taking-on-immigration-minister-scott-morrison-20140801-3cy82.html
Triggs’s first marriage, to Melbourne senior counsel Prof Sandy Clark, ended in 1989. They had three children; James, who is 34 and working as a commercial lawyer in Paris, Alexandra, 32, who is an art/design teacher in Melbourne, and Victoria, who was born in 1984, profoundly disabled, with a rare chromosomal disorder known as Edwards Syndrome. “Victoria was as severely retarded as anyone who is still alive can be,” Triggs says. “Her condition usually results in the death of the baby before or shortly after birth. In fact, the doctors kept saying, ‘Just leave her in the corner and she’ll die.’ So, it sounds terrible, but I’d look at Victoria and think, ‘Well, you’re going to die, so I’m not going to invest too much in you.’ But she didn’t die. She had this inner rod of determination, and she simply refused to die.”
At about six months of age, Triggs and Clark took Victoria home, and, with the help of the Uniting Church, found a family who took over her primary care. (Victoria died eight years ago, at the age of 21.) When I ask Triggs if this arrangement bothered her, she says: “Yes, because you have child and you expect to look after her. But in the end I simply made the judgement that I would rather put my time into my other children and family, because I also never believed she would live to that age.”
——-
I’m sorry but she is not a moral authority on looking after children and as my mother was disabled and my grandmother never gave up on her even as a single mother, I find Triggs attitude a disgrace.
Ironic that she called her report “The Forgotten Children”, could have been written about Victoria Triggs… dumped at the local orphanage because she was “gonna die anyways”
Great article on New Matilda, “Tony Abbott’s Failing Search For Scapegoats”.
Killer quote: “It doesn’t require any particular genius to notice that our current Prime Minister is a particularly cynical liar. However, he is also an ideological fanatic, living in an insular bubble. This is the only way to explain not only the policies he makes which progressives may regard as morally outrageous, but also the sheer incompetence that has characterised most of his government’s actions, policies, and often even rhetoric.”
https://newmatilda.com/2015/03/01/tony-abbott%E2%80%99s-failing-search-scapegoats
Retaining Abbott will give the NSW election “Put the LNP Last” campaign a shot in the arm
Is Ipsos reflective of community concern with having a Lying Friar rule over us?
We need to send a message to Canberra
BTW I know there is a lot of annoyance at pointing out what Triggs did but she’s pretending to be the highest moral authority in the land when it comes to human rights. Think about that.
Would you seriously accept someone who did that to her own baby daughter as someone of high moral human rights calibre?
TBA,
Absolutely no attempt to deal with the real issue as Malcolm Turnbull rightly raised.
Attacking the person is a well known Libera1 trait. It’s pathetic, but well known.
Do you think it is a good thing that children continue to be held in concentration camps?
[I don’t think Triggs is any position to lecture anyone when it comes to looking after children. She is certainly no moral authority that’s for sure.]
I don’t think Crikey should let you continue with this rubbish, but that is up to them, I hope she finds out who you are and sues you.
Triggs conducted an inquiry. She has never pretends to be the highest authority on anything.
You, though, seem to have this attribute in spades.
[I know there is a lot of annoyance at pointing out what Triggs did but she’s pretending to be the highest moral authority in the land when it comes to human rights.]
She’s never claimed to be the highest blah blah blah. She’s the head of the HRC in Australia. Get it?
Bloody drongo.
[Triggs did but she’s pretending to be the highest moral authority in the land]
She is the human rights commissioner and that makes her the human rights commissioner. Whether or not the human rights commissioner is the highest moral authority in the land or not I frankly have no idea. But if I want to look for the most disgusting immoral scum in our country I have a pretty good idea where I’d start.
How dare anyone judge Gillian Triggs on the basis of ghe decisions she made about her profoundly disabled daughter. An awful dilemma, I couldn’t imagine the mental turmoil in deciding what is best fir the daughter and the rest of her family. All decisions are bad. To attack her on this is absolutely disgusting.
Rex Douglas@2261
Wow, you mean all those things the ALP has stood for as long as I can remember?
What planet have you been on Rex?
[How dare anyone judge Gillian Triggs on the basis of ghe decisions she made about her profoundly disabled daughter. An awful dilemma, I couldn’t imagine the mental turmoil in deciding what is best fir the daughter and the rest of her family. All decisions are bad. To attack her on this is absolutely disgusting.]
It is much worse than absolutely disgusting, puts a person at least below drug dealers and king pins in my book.
Getting rid of Triggs would be a ‘win’ for Abbott.
That’s all that matters for true blue aussie, a blind cheerleader, like many others here…
Steve777@2263
He has been judged and found wanting!
John Reidy@2169
You can access once if you have set your cookies to be trashed after a session.
To access multiple times on the same day (assuming you shut your pc down overnight, or at least log out of your browser) open an incognito page and paste, for example,
sinking-feeling-for-pm-under-fire
into that.
bemused,
So why are we hearing nothing now…?
[High-end tax evasion/loopholes
High-end Super tax concessions
NDIS
Equality
FTTP
Rail]
Having had to actually govern and not live in a fairyland Labor could have been a bit tougher on High-end super tax concessions. It has and always has been fantastic on equality, rail, the NDIS is its idea FFS, the idiot could look up Chiefly and rail to get a bit of an idea how deeply rail runs in our blood, and well as for high end tax avoidance there is a need to establish there is a significant problem here before you could say anyone is slack. Australia has some of the toughest income tax avoidance rules in the world. The greatest weakness in our tax system is the resourcing of the ATO. The law can always be tightened and improved and at law school I remember a crim law lecturer talking about law as an evolving set of rules designed to get every known scam and con designed.
[“Whether or not the human rights commissioner is the highest moral authority in the land or not I frankly have no idea.”]
Well if you are going to lecture others and take the moral high ground you better not have any skeletons or 2 in the cupboard.
[“How dare anyone judge Gillian Triggs on the basis of ghe decisions she made about her profoundly disabled daughter.”]
Or about a government dealing with the very difficult subject of AS children who aren’t even their own?
See the double standard here?
[So why are we hearing nothing now…?]
Hard to say could be you are not listening could be you are just … what is the PB expression … dumb as a bag of hammers?
[See the double standard here?]
Only yours clown.
I’m sure that the Parties have their own polling results that they will rely on.
Tom.
Having dealt with lots of parents of profoundly disabled children, there is no way you can judge them. All react differently and it’s just too difficult a situation to know what is reasonable and what isn’t.
Rex Douglas@2280
Perhaps you are deaf?
[ I don’t think Triggs is any position to lecture anyone when it comes to looking after children. She is certainly no moral authority that’s for sure. ]
You know TBA, if you had just cut this short at:
[ I don’t think ]
You would have been indisputably correct.
Instead you went on to prove you are a toxic dick-wad.
Exactly the same poll result occurred in the three weeks before the Rudd challenge. I think it is the electorate responding to the idea that the party people “are doing something to fix the mess”
However when the gloss goes Abbott will fall harder and faster .
Very interesting poll dynamic: LNP vote improving as punters sense Abbott is headed straight for the bin.
Hopefully the Libs will misinterpret it as an endorsement of the utter shambles that has been “good government” since the spill motion.
Rex
we are hearing ‘nothing’ now (apart from commitments to price carbon, for example) because that’s where we are in the electoral cycle.
After an election loss, Labor: spends one year reviewing what went wrong, training up Shadow Ministers, etc; the next year consulting with the community about possible policy directions; the final year releasing policy.
Do the latter too soon, and your policy may well be irrelevant (or undeliverable) by the time you get to the election.
Failure to consult properly (and that takes time) means that you fail to foresee the unintended consequences of your policies and p*ss people off unnecessarily.
Victorian Labor has announced it’s opening preselections within the next couple of months, which means it will have candidates on the ground by mid year. That’s the time to start rolling out policies, when you have people out there in every electorate to argue the case, answer questions and provide feedback.
Yes Lefty E, that’s almost certainly right; but will be confirmed if Abbott’s personal figures are as bad/worse.
The last Galaxy & ReachTEL Fed Polls in early February had different Lib leader TPPs. ReachTEL a wild Turnbull 54-46 to the L/NP, Galaxy a milder 49-51 for the L/NP. This poll matches that last Galaxy. So yeah, its possible this IPSOS poll is a Turnbull influened one, but its way too early to say.
https://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/7-news-national-poll-5february2015
http://www.galaxyresearch.com.au/45-february-2015/
dtt
There was often a shift to Labor when Gillard was approaching the brink. I’m not sure why it happens but it seems to happen more often than by pure chance.
My guess is that it’s a regression to the mean phenomenon where a a few really crappy outlier polls get leadership speculation but statistically it’s unlikely that they are repeated.
Disgraceful trolling. I have only contempt for this low life TBA. Now to be ignored like the nothing he/she is.
TBA
Tony Abbott is the schmuck who left his girlfriend to have a baby on her own. Disgusting behaviour. The fact that the baby was not his is irrelevant because both he and the mum thought it was.
I think the choice Triggs made to maintain her daughter, even if not providing the hands on care is a much more “moral” choice than Abbott abandoning what he thought was his child to be dumped on social security, or catholic welfare.
Mind you I am not saying either choice was morally wrong, but perhaps not ideal.
IPSOs Poll Labor 51 Lib 49 today SMH
DTT,
It wasn’t Abbotts baby also he can make the excuse he was young n dumb. Triggs baby was her 3rd child.
Also Abbott isn’t claiming to be the highest moral authority in the land.
TrueBlueAussie
Posted Sunday, March 1, 2015 at 7:34 pm
Do you even understand what the HRC does?
Let me help you.
They take the international human rights conventions that Australia has agreed to.
They then look at Governments actions in these areas and assess whether they are consistent with the conventions.
It’s not a moralising process, it’s a legal analysis.
The convention says this, are the Government doing this. Yes/No.
Hope that helps you.
Well that’s enough. I remember the sign at the zoo,
“Don’t feed or touch the animals!”
You are a classic example of why the sign is needed.
TBA,
Show us where Triggs has claimed to be the highest moral authority in the land.
Repeating lies does not make them true.