Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

Newspoll strays from the pack with an unexpectedly moderate lead for Labor, although Tony Abbott’s personal ratings remain diabolical.

James J relates in comments that Newspoll in tomorrow’s Australian is a good deal better for the Coalition then its recent polling form, with the Labor lead down from 57-43 a fortnight ago to 53-47. The major parties are tied at 38% of the primary vote with the Greens on 12%. Tony Abbott’s approval ratings have not improved, with approval on 25% and disapproval on 68%. The surprise is the poor ratings for Bill Shorten who is on at 35% approval and 49% disapproval, although he maintains a 43-35 lead over Abbott as preferred prime minister.

UPDATE (Morgan and Essential): Roy Morgan and Essential likewise record movement back to the Coalition, although not nearly as much. The Roy Morgan result, which combines two weekends of face-to-face plus SMS polling from a sample of 2639, has Labor down a point on the primary vote to 40.5%, the Coalition up two to 37.5%, the Greens down two to 10% and Palmer United steady on 2%. Labor’s two-party lead is down from 57.5-42.5 to 56-44 on respondent-allocated preferences, and 57-43 to 55-45 on previous election preferences.

After failing to join in with the other pollsters in registering a post-Australia Day Coalition collapse, Essential Research now finds itself in alignment with Newspoll as Labor’s lead narrows from 54-46 to 53-37, from primary votes of 40% for the Coalition (up one), 41% for Labor (steady), 9% for the Greens (down one) and 2% for Palmer United (steady). The result combines two weeks of polling from a sample of 1836.

This week’s tranche of the Essential survey also inquires about economic management and foreign relations, recording substantial change in sentiment on both counts since the questions were last asked in October. The government’s “good” rating on economic management is down five to 34%, while “poor” is up two to 30%. Respondents are found to have become less concerned about various cost of living measures, particularly and understandably in relation to petrol, but more concerned about debt and deficit.

The Abbott government is being marked down even further on trust in handling international relations, the positive rating down seven to 33% and negative up nine to 62%. For Indonesia specifically, the government’s “good” rating is down eight to 24% with negative up three to 42%. Relations with other countries appear to have become less important to respondents generally, the “very important” ratings for Indonesia, the United States and Britain down by about 10%. However, the results for China and Japan are down a good deal less.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

968 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

Comments Page 20 of 20
1 19 20
  1. Re Swamprat @949: of course I am in no position to guarantee that, or anything else. Our best guarantee that rights will be respected is an open, tolerant society.

    The law says that we cannot discriminate against people on the basis of religion, race, sexuality, etc. That binds all of us, including Australian Muslims. That is a protection that the clowns and thugs who now run the Federal Government want to wind back.

  2. What did Tony Burke say??

    The other day (missed the moment when it was topical) I was going to make a comment about the IRA, along the lines of the Catholic DEATH CULT – for Tony Abbott’s consumption.

    You never know who you’re gunna offend these days, but who’d have thought it would be a gay dude/tte. FMD.

  3. [WTF, indeed.

    There are 7 countries in the world that have the death penalty for being gay. All islamic.

    Imagine if there were 7 countries that killed red heads, or women, or short men…. would the Greens/ALP say WTF?]
    WTF x 2

  4. kezza

    The IRA was not a Catholic death=-ult, it was an Irish nationist “death-cult” as distinct from the British Army death-cult and the Loyalist death-cult.

    Are these different from the USA/Russian Army death-cult?

  5. swamp
    [Are these different from the USA/Russian Army death-cult?]

    Depends of your point of view, I spex.

    But what the hell has this got to do with Tony Burke allegedly being an ISIL sympathiser, who therefore agrees with executing folk for being gay?

    Are you saying that he also agrees with women being stoned to death for being raped?

  6. [swamprat
    Posted Wednesday, February 25, 2015 at 11:49 pm | PERMALINK

    Can you gaurantee to me that if Muslems got to enough percentage of the electorate to help decide government that they will never use that power to persecute me as a gay athiest?]

    My best response to this would be “Mate, it’s your bedtime, go to sleep and when you wake up in the morning, then you can reflect and then apologise to 500 000 Muslims”. Goodnight.

  7. Sound familiar?
    [The new head of Australia’s Treasury is a fan of the Ronald Reagan tax cuts in the US, believes austerity has had a bad press and is wary about using government spending to stimulate the economy.

    Meet John Fraser, until a few weeks ago the head of UBS Global Asset Management in London. The Abbott government appointed him in December to replace the long-serving public servant Martin Parkinson, who stepped down after being told he didn’t have the confidence of the prime minister.]

  8. [The new head of Australia’s Treasury is a fan of the Ronald Reagan tax cuts in the US, believes austerity has had a bad press and is wary about using government spending to stimulate the economy.]

    After the real, lived experience of the GFC and how it impacted Australia which used govt intervention/stimulus to mitigate its effects, vs many other countries which didn’t, how can the jury be out on that?

  9. 936

    It was not let back in because it had not come to the conclusion consistent with austerity that favours the wealthy.

  10. Watching replay of QT.

    Pyne at 45 minute mark tells the House ‘about dams that we plan to build in northern Australia.’


  11. [Sir Mad Cyril

    Posted Wednesday, February 25, 2015 at 10:54 am | Permalink

    Dutton must be auditioning for a stand up comedy gig:

    Peter Brent
    Dutts: “Senator Brandis is one of the most competent legal minds in the country”.

    I have found in the last 18 months that I have no need to search for comedic entertainment, all I need do is follow the adventures of Captain Barnacle and his mighty galley SS Shipwreck.

    Admittedly it’s a tragic comedy and one better viewed from the safety of another country.

    My condolences to my fellow Bludgers who are seeing this up close, any comedy writers who are feeling the pressure of competition from News 24 and Sky News and finally satirists who are suffering from the L&NP stealing their best lines.

    Please, don’t do anything rash, normality will eventually return.


Comments Page 20 of 20
1 19 20

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *