Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

Newspoll strays from the pack with an unexpectedly moderate lead for Labor, although Tony Abbott’s personal ratings remain diabolical.

James J relates in comments that Newspoll in tomorrow’s Australian is a good deal better for the Coalition then its recent polling form, with the Labor lead down from 57-43 a fortnight ago to 53-47. The major parties are tied at 38% of the primary vote with the Greens on 12%. Tony Abbott’s approval ratings have not improved, with approval on 25% and disapproval on 68%. The surprise is the poor ratings for Bill Shorten who is on at 35% approval and 49% disapproval, although he maintains a 43-35 lead over Abbott as preferred prime minister.

UPDATE (Morgan and Essential): Roy Morgan and Essential likewise record movement back to the Coalition, although not nearly as much. The Roy Morgan result, which combines two weekends of face-to-face plus SMS polling from a sample of 2639, has Labor down a point on the primary vote to 40.5%, the Coalition up two to 37.5%, the Greens down two to 10% and Palmer United steady on 2%. Labor’s two-party lead is down from 57.5-42.5 to 56-44 on respondent-allocated preferences, and 57-43 to 55-45 on previous election preferences.

After failing to join in with the other pollsters in registering a post-Australia Day Coalition collapse, Essential Research now finds itself in alignment with Newspoll as Labor’s lead narrows from 54-46 to 53-37, from primary votes of 40% for the Coalition (up one), 41% for Labor (steady), 9% for the Greens (down one) and 2% for Palmer United (steady). The result combines two weeks of polling from a sample of 1836.

This week’s tranche of the Essential survey also inquires about economic management and foreign relations, recording substantial change in sentiment on both counts since the questions were last asked in October. The government’s “good” rating on economic management is down five to 34%, while “poor” is up two to 30%. Respondents are found to have become less concerned about various cost of living measures, particularly and understandably in relation to petrol, but more concerned about debt and deficit.

The Abbott government is being marked down even further on trust in handling international relations, the positive rating down seven to 33% and negative up nine to 62%. For Indonesia specifically, the government’s “good” rating is down eight to 24% with negative up three to 42%. Relations with other countries appear to have become less important to respondents generally, the “very important” ratings for Indonesia, the United States and Britain down by about 10%. However, the results for China and Japan are down a good deal less.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

968 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. [Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s acceptance of an invitation to address the US Congress, without the blessing of the White House, is destructive to US-Israeli ties, a senior official has said.

    The comments by national security advisor Susan Rice are some of the harshest yet regarding Republican House speaker John Boehner’s invitation to the Israeli leader to speak to lawmakers, bypassing protocol by not advising president Barack Obama first.]
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-25/netanyahu-speech-to-us-congress-will-harm-ties-with-us3a-rice/6262646

  2. [“Putting children in detention is simply indefensible. thats the point.”]

    So why did Labor put them all in detention then?

    Oh you didn’t realise… every single one… covered by Labor stooge Triggs that was covered by this inquiry were put there by Labor.

    Why did Triggs hold off holding the inquiry after meeting up with 2 Labor MP’s on the matter?

    EVERYONE. SINGLE. ONE. OF. THEM.

  3. [So why did Labor put them all in detention then?

    Oh you didn’t realise… every single one… covered by Labor stooge Triggs that was covered by this inquiry were put there by Labor.

    EVERYONE. SINGLE. ONE. OF. THEM.]

    If that’s the case, why didn’t the new Minister… take them out of detention?

    Surely that would have been a better option than attacking the messenger. Especially if as you claim the situation has absolutely nothing to do with the Abbott government policy. Should be easy to fix.

  4. Dee 901 re Natanyahu’s visit to the USA
    ________________
    His visit to D<C is notably in that neither Pres,V-Pres of John Kerry wll speak to him
    He comes to the US at the invitation of the Republican Jewish Congress members and it's remarkable for a foreign head of state to do so,with no invitation from Obama
    This illustrates ,as this article from Scott MCConnell in The US Conservative.,which unlike many Republicans is critical of Israeli policy and the Jewish Lobby,which now detest Obama (it's recripocated)

    McConnel welcomes Netanyahu… as he says it all helps undermine the Jewish Lobbies power,and more and more in the US people are tired of Israel and it's plans to drag the US into more war,notably with Iran ..a state 4 times larger than Iraq….a catastrophe awaits if they do

    http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/netanyahus-blind-spot/

    http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/netanyahus-blind-spot/

  5. ESJ

    [Looks likes it s going to be the Bali Seven very soon! I hope we impose sanctions on Indo over this senseless killing.]

    I hope it encourages a back bone in supporting West Papuan rights to self determination in the LNP/ALP, but courage and principle are not something eirther party registers..

  6. Edwina StJohn @ 910: What thought have you given to how we might deal with the reciprocal sanctions which Indonesia could impose on Australia? (Like busting the first 100 Australian tourists they can catch misbehaving in Bali, and proceeding right up to closing their airspace to flights to and from Australia.)

  7. Although as a gay man and a socialist, I have never understood why the religion the Greens and the ALP seems to most love is Islam.

    Obviously to them Islam is left wing in a way I do not understand.

  8. Pedant, australia and indonesia both have a lot to lose, in this case joko and his brother choko have really said we don’t give a f… About the relationship?

    Alternatively your saying we shouldn’t protest because well lose financially for doing so which is very lame and self-abasing.

  9. swamprat @ 915: Thanks for sharing that, but I can’t see what it has to do with anything I’ve said.

    But since you’ve raised it, and as a matter of interest, how would you apply your rules of thumb to Bali (predominantly Hindu) and eastern parts of Indonesia like Flores (predominantly Christian)?

  10. 913

    Banning flights to and from Australia using Indonesian airspace would be a really effective sanction. It would effect a significant proportion of Australia`s international flights but Australia reciprocating would effect a very smaller proportion of theirs, mostly or entirely to and from New Zealand.

  11. Edwina StJohn @ 919: I’m waiting for someone in Indonesia to give a speech about national interest and sovereignty, never apologising for defending same, and not giving a stuff about external opinions, which is entirely a cut-and-paste from things said in the last 18 months by Messrs Abbott and Morrison.

    There’s a difference between protest and sanctions. Sure, Australia could impose sanctions of some sort on Indonesia, but they wouldn’t hurt them as much as we would be hurt by the ones they could impose on us in retaliation.

    And if we imposed sanctions on Indonesia, we would basically get the whole of ASEAN off side, which would be most damaging to Australian interests.

  12. Tom @ 913: I once had to fly from Frankfurt to southern Africa on a South African Airways flight in the days of flight sanctions. Basically, they had to fly right out west of Africa, refuel in Ilha do Sal in Cape Verde, and then turn left.

    If flights had to go around Indonesia to get to or from Australia, I suspect the additional fuel costs would give cause for thought.

  13. I’d say the Greens and ALP appear to “love” Islam because people who support those two parties tend to be opposed to discrimination, vilification and intolerance and presently Islam is one of the more vilified, discriminated against and least tolerated minority group in Australia.

    Rather than any particular love of Islam versus other religions, it’s just solidarity.

  14. pedant

    yes i realise Bali is a tiny Hindu enclave in Indonesia.

    I have never visited Bali but could.

    Whether Bali will be Hindu in the future will depend, I suppose, on the “jihad”.

    if one believes that everything that is non-islam is evil, its a scorthed earth, as the destruction of the ancient Buddhist statues in Afganistan showed. Hinduism in Bali will not be protected from “jihad”, if that is politically expedient in the right circumstance.

  15. It’s all rather Shakespearean

    Abbott has clearly decided he’s going to go down fighting. QT today was a train wreck of aggression trying to trump plain good sense. Picking on Triggs was such poor political judgement and will surely embolden her.

    I’m at the point where I kinda feel sorry for Abbott, like a thrashing sick wounded animal that should really be put out of its misery.

  16. Edwina

    Some things like execution are morally wrong and should be opposed pedant – anything else is pathetic.

    Are you applying this philosophy to the USA?

  17. Edwina StJohn @ 924: I agree with you about executions, but there’s not much point imposing sanctions afterwards, especially if you are going to get hit by a harder backlash. Basically, you can try to persuade the Indonesians, but there’s no point in trying to push them around: they are too strong, and Australia is too weak.

  18. Shows On

    [Although as a gay man and a socialist, I have never understood why the religion the Greens and the ALP seems to most love is Islam.

    WTF?]

    WTF, indeed.

    There are 7 countries in the world that have the death penalty for being gay. All islamic.

    Imagine if there were 7 countries that killed red heads, or women, or short men…. would the Greens/ALP say WTF?

  19. Dan re TBA.

    No way! Not a troll. Surely he/she is our resident Stephen Colbert. The posts are SO funny, ROFL till my head bashes on the wall…. over and over again.

  20. First they came for the Muslims, but I did not speak up, for I am not Muslim. Then they came for…

    and we know how that ends if you’re not a confident member of the dominant / ruling group, or perhaps even if you are.

  21. Rossmore @ 928: No need to feel sorry for him. He’s just a nasty piece of work about to get his comeuppance. There are few more beautiful things in this world.

    Twelve months out from his Prime Ministership he will be insufferable, unemployable, and probably hitting the bottle. It’s his family for whom I feel sympathy.

  22. Steve

    [First they came for the Muslims, but I did not speak up, for I am not Muslim. Then they came for…]

    That quote from Dietrich Bonoeffer is hardly apposite.

    In the 1930’s Germany the jews had no country, no defenders, no sanctuaries.

    Muslims have many countries. Some muslim countries have massive wealth.

    Muslim movement to the west is to escape moslem countries.

    What is your point?

  23. Presumably that other people being wealthy in other countries isn’t much comfort when a skinhead is beating your face in at a train station in Cabramatta.

  24. Swamprat, one of those countries is half Christian (slight majority Christian).

    Quite a lot of non Muslim countries also have strict laws against homosexuality. At least one I know has a life sentence for it.

  25. crowd funding here we come… 😉
    [A Tony Abbott ‘hopeless’ poster at a service station on Regent St, Chippendale. Photo: Brianne Makin

    It is inspired by an iconic image of “hope”, but represents the exact opposite: the “hopeless” Abbott government.

    The 4.5 metre tall poster, erected in Chippendale on Monday, is the brainchild of Sydney-based graphic designer Michael Agzarian.

    Fed-up with a federal government he describes as “inept and uncaring”, Mr Agzarian decided to put more than $3000 of his own money towards “making a statement”.]
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/abbottsolutely-hopeless-poster-hits-chippendale-20150225-13osi8.html

  26. Steve

    Let me say this:

    Ever since Tony Burke (a NSW ALP creep) said that ISIL was the same as the IRA and that the IRA was trying to establish a Catholic State – like ISIL was establsihing an Islamic State (a total lie), I have been buying lotto tickets.

    I know its futile but I would like to win enough money to benefit charities and to fund a campaign to remove that lying Labour moral relative arsehole from Parliament.

    I know he is safe as the chances or winning are miniscule.

  27. swamprat
    Posted Wednesday, February 25, 2015 at 11:26 pm | PERMALINK
    Steve

    Let me say this:

    Ever since Tony Burke (a NSW ALP creep) said that ISIL was the same as the IRA and that the IRA was trying to establish a Catholic State – like ISIL was establsihing an Islamic State (a total lie), I have been buying lotto tickets.

    I know its futile but I would like to win enough money to benefit charities and to fund a campaign to remove that lying Labour moral relative arsehole from Parliament.

    I know he is safe as the chances or winning are miniscule.

    ——-ah the quality of political debate in this country … william sleeps

  28. Simon Katich

    [Swamprat, one of those countries is half Christian (slight majority Christian).

    Quite a lot of non Muslim countries also have strict laws against homosexuality. At least one I know has a life sentence for it.]

    Wow!!

    It’s not a cute debating poiint, it is for people, a matter of life and death.

    inenr-city rich green wankers like Hansen-Young are pretend leftists. Obviously ALP rightists like Tony Burke are just conniviing careerists.

    They would sacrifice anything for their careers.

    It is of course the major problem with the ALP/LNP…. the fact that most of their MPs are unthinking careerists…………

    The problem with the Greens they are mostly represented of the middle class over-privilidged well meaning…. many good ideas but seemingly little understanding what it is like to be vulnerable.

  29. My point is that if anyone is bullied, mistreated, scalegoated – be they Muslim, Gay, Black, I don’t feel safe, nor should anyone.

    it is of course appalling that there are countries where gay people are executed or imprisoned for living out their being. It is only about a generation and a half since gay sex was a felony penalised by prison terms in Australia.

    As for Australian Muslims, their country, like mine, is Australia. There is much about their religion I don’t understand and don’t like. I can say the same for the religion in which I was brought up, Catholicism. But the social contract is that I respect them, I obey the law. And they respect me and they obey the law.

  30. geoffrey

    [——-ah the quality of political debate in this country … william sleeps]

    I do not understand, though probably not meant for me.

  31. It’s amusing that the only results Google can find linking Tony Burke and statements on the IRA wanting to set up a Catholic State are swamprat ranting on here.

  32. Steve

    [And they respect me and they obey the law.]

    Haha

    Muslims are “only” 500,000 at the moment. – a “weak” minority.

    But what is the correlation between ALP MPs that voted against gay rights to marriage and the proportiopn of muslim voters in their electorates?

    I have zero belief that either LNP or ALP MPs will vote for my rights as an equal Australian (even though I am 7th generation) if they thought it was between them wimming access to the Parliamentary money trough.

  33. Steve

    Can you gaurantee to me that if Muslems got to enough percentage of the electorate to help decide government that they will never use that power to persecute me as a gay athiest?

  34. teh-drewski

    [It’s amusing that the only results Google can find linking Tony Burke and statements on the IRA wanting to set up a Catholic State are swamprat ranting on here.]

    Well it may be amusing but I saw it about 4 weeks ago, but obviously he has taken it down.

    Maybe others complained.

    I will try to find it. I knew I should have recorded it.

    rant ……rant …….rant

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