After a slightly surprising week of polling, in which Newspoll, Essential and Morgan all placed Labor in the range of 53% to 54% after bias adjustment, the BludgerTrack aggregate finds a bounce back to the Coalition from the abysmal depths plumbed after Australia Day. The Coalition is up by 2% on the two-party and primary vote, at the expense of the Greens as well as Labor, and by 10 on the seat projection, with three gains in Victoria, two each in New South Wales and Western Australia, and one each in Queensland, South Australia and Tasmania.
Newspoll is the only one of the three to have supplied new leadership ratings, and since no new figures emerged last week, they weigh heavily upon the model’s current readings. This might be deemed unfortunate, as some of the Newspoll numbers look a little idiosyncratic. In particular, the minus 14% net approval for Bill Shorten is his worst in any published poll since he became leader, and nine points worse than any result this year. It may be that when the dust settles, this result will show up as a correction to the anomalous recent trend in his favour, returning him to his long-term equilibrium just below zero.
Among the many interesting features of the Newspoll result was the personal rating for Tony Abbott, which all but matched the results Newspoll produced a fortnight ago from a sample that gave the Coalition such devastating numbers on voting intention. Indeed, the latest Newspoll runs a very close second to the one a fortnight ago as the worst personal result Abbott has suffered in a poll as prime minister. The trend chart shown on the sidebar to the right accordingly shows no respite in Abbott’s collapse since Australia Day, in strong contrast to voting intention.
Only in the ACT:
[Justice Burns said, despite the array of grounds, the outcome of the appeal turned on one question: was the magistrate entitled to find beyond a reasonable doubt that Mr Slipper undertook each of the three journeys for purely personal reasons?
“I am satisfied that she was not so entitled, and I am satisfied that the convictions recorded by the magistrate were unsafe and unsatisfactory,” Justice Burns wrote.
Justice Burns said the breath of activity that could be encompassed by the term “parliamentary business” meant the prosecution had to disprove the possibility that Mr Slipper visited the wineries for work.
For example, the judge said, Mr Slipper could have made the visits to inform himself about the businesses as part of his function as a parliamentarian, to meet a third party, or to meet staff members.
“The fact is that the prosecution could not exclude these rational inferences, and as such the guilt of the appellant was not the only rational inference available on the evidence,” Justice Burns said.
“It follows that it was not open to the magistrate, viewing the evidence as a whole, to convict.”
Justice Burns ordered the appeal be upheld and the convictions and penalties imposed by the magistrate be set aside.
“Verdicts of not guilty will be substituted with respect to each charge.”]
‘breath of activity’ should be breadth of activity. So many mistakes in papers now.
For anyone interested in the Slipper decision: http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/cases/act/ACTSC/2015/27.html
Pyne may regret bringing up Slipper in his reply in the SSO yesterday 🙂
OK Zoomster and the rest
There are a coterie of ALP hacks and also many good hearted but highly feminist bloggers here for whom JG could do no wrong. There is a third group of greeny “hate Rudd” who by default lauded every action of JG
I will name them
First the feminists for whom as first female PM Julia was given sainthood: Confessions, Victoria, Puff, Zoomster , Lizzie, Kezza. This group were vitriolic in their hatred of Rudd and heard never a word against Gillard
Second the ALP Right Wing hacks (and some lefty). Mostly union oriented hacks there are so many on PB I cannot list them all so apologies to all you hacks not named: GG, Dave, Cud, Centre, Psephos
Thirdly the misguided greenies: Guytaur and Deblonay loom the largest.
DTT
I have not been misguided. Just look at what I said today. The court decision further vindicates Gillards decision to appoint Slipper Speaker.
He was an excellent Speaker. It was a clever move on the numbers in parliament and didn’t Abbott know it.
What is misguided about that? Is it that I am not singing the praises of Mr Rudd?
DTT
Thank you for nothing. To be realistic about Rudd’s character does not imply the sainthood of Julia, which I have never implied.
Wow, the trolls jumped on that Burnside article.
He must be Enemy No.1 over at Menzies House.
[First the feminists for whom as first female PM Julia was given sainthood: Confessions, Victoria, Puff, Zoomster , Lizzie, Kezza. This group were vitriolic in their hatred of Rudd and heard never a word against Gillard]
Bollocks, dtt. I have critised Gillard, quite often, particularly when it comes to education policies.
I have also criticised Rudd. In every case, my criticisms have been backed by evidence.
I have also praised Rudd.
The cultists here are the ones who regard anyone who criticises Rudd at all, on whatever grounds, as one eyed antagonists of the man.
dtt @ 153
That leaves a handful who don’t think Gillard was a very good Prime Minister and Rudd was a sleazy undermining swine who was happy to destroy his own party that made him Prime Minister in order to get revenge when it was shown he was not up to the job and given the flick.
A very small cult of Rudd lovers indeed.
Now we can move on. Especially as it was one of that cult who raised the flame wars again.
I think we are all much more interested in fighting against the psychopath who is destroying the whole of this country, rather than the one who merely wanted to destroy his own political party and has now gone to bother some international body or the other.
[First the feminists for whom as first female PM Julia was given sainthood: Confessions, Victoria, Puff, Zoomster , Lizzie, Kezza. This group were vitriolic in their hatred of Rudd and heard never a word against Gillard]
Oh, FFS!
If you read back about 10 posts Puffy clearly says Gillard had her faults. And I recall the others you name have also conceded this.
In fact, I can’t think of ONE person on this site who has ever said Gillard could do no wrong – or any who “lauded every action of JG”. For example, there has been much criticism of her position on same sex marriage.
And “misguided greenies”? You’re just trying to be offensive now.
Basically, what you’re is anyone who doesn’t agree with you is either a “vitriolic feminist”, a “hack” or “misguided”.
People think different things to you. Get over it.
OK Zoomster
Since you have opened the obvious “it was all that blue meany Rudd’s fault”, there is a rather big difference between attending a wedding and making someone speaker.
Now the REASON Gillard acted so quickly on Slipper was because she feared that Rudd was going to get him on side and be able to promise majority government in his own right, if he was PM. We do not know if Rudd was proposing Slipper become speaker. Personally I think he would have made the offer to Katter or Oakshott, but I have no real idea. Gillard’s move on Slipper was prompted by stopping Rudd who learned of the move while campaigning for Kate jones in Ashgrove. It was a brilliant master stoke against Rudd in the short term, but the long term impacts were predictable.
The NBN making (faster) progress:
[Capital expenditure rose by nearly $250 million to $1.43 billion in the half. Over the life of the NBN project, capital expenditure has been $7.1 billion.
As of the end of December, NBN Co had connected 748,000 homes, with 322,391 active users using the broadband service.]
http://www.smh.com.au/business/nbn-connects-10200-premises-per-week-20150226-13pb7h.html#ixzz3SoGrpelp
Most peopel are not as good at maths as the average political staffer, being more likely to have a Stephen-Conroy-level of numeracy. So they do not undersand whata great achievement this is. 10,200 households a week means 500,000 households a year. Australia has a population of 23 million, in only 7.5 million households. So at this rate, in just 15 more years, we will have all the households in the country connected. Business premises will add to that time.
Even better, the expenditure of just $7.1 billion for 748,000 homes means that each NBN connection has cost around $10,000 per household. No wonder they were targetted in marginal electorates! What a great outcome! What economic genius! and all in a mere six years! I don’t know who to thank more – Stephen “the genius” Conroy or Malcolm “trustworthy” Turnbull. Well done, both ministers. Stand up. Be proud.
dtt
[Since you have opened the obvious “it was all that blue meany Rudd’s fault”, there is a rather big difference between attending a wedding and making someone speaker.]
As has already been pointed out to you, bemused is the one who opened the issue, by saying that Rudd was instrumental in Slipper’s appointment.
Why aren’t you criticising bemused?
dtt @ 160
The problem with that theory is that Slipper, while making an excellent speaker, was a pretty disloyal bugger. He would have jumped to any camp if it suited him.
[No, it is too early to dump Abbott. I agree with the aversion therapy argument. Both the Liberal Party and the Australian voters have not suffered enough of a lesson about being very careful of whom you allow to become PM.]
I agree with Puffy. In my opinion the punters have get over the “SMS ‘Like'” attitude that pervades modern political thought. That was a great way of putting it.
Voting is a sacred duty and responsibility, not an audience vote on who should be thrown out of Big Brother’s house. We are seeing the consequences of the contrary view now. Let them suffer a little longer.
Abbott has completely reverted to type. Once again he’s the boofheaded bovver boy that used to haunt the corridors of Sydney University SRC, punching walls, intimidating and spreading fear. He’s the same seminarian who took on the Catholic church and tried to wreck it from within. The man who told us during the Republic debate that we should never trust a politician, and later on told the world that we should specifically never trust him is the same man who wrecked Parliament, head-kicking his way to office.
Once there he’s tried to wreck that too. Abbott is not a conservative. He’s an anarchist, a natural born killer of institutions, not to reoform them, but only so that he can stand a little taller among the bodies in the rubble by comparison.
There are many stories going around in Canberra now about Abbott’s excesses, his thuggery and his bellicosity. I’m sure not all of them are true, or that some have been amplified in the telling, but the very fact that they are in circulation, and being passed on at funerals, in the pubs and at other gatherings of those who have to try to work with this maniac, shows that the “Beltway” despises him.
Any work they do for him will be done grudgingly. Obfuscation and delay will be the name of the game. A few head honchos at the top might kick a couple of heads, but you can’t make the entire Oublic Service stand to attention an salute you if they think you’re frankly an arsehole who needs to be expunged from political society.
The punters are fed up. That was obvious from my holiday up the NSW coast. From campfire chats with other holiday makers around camp fires, down at the beach and in the shops, it wasn’t so much that everyone was against him – although many, indeed most, were – but that I couldn’t find anyone to defend him.
Abbott is very short on mates from any demographic or occupation. Ironically for someone who can’t shut up about Death Cults, Abbott himself now has the stench of political death about him. His displays and antics over the last few days seem to show that he doesn’t care anymore. The commentators opine that he’s trying to shore up the base – the Bolts and the Akka Dakkas, and their rabid followers – but that only means he’s lost the center and the Left (if he ever had the Left).
It’s what always happens to bullies. When bullies turns on their own gang, the gang runs away, victims at last, like everyone else.
Abbott empire is contracting. His circle is diminishing in diameter. Soon he’ll be in a bunker somewhere, in some politically alpine redoubt, ready for his last stand, with only the loyalest of the loyal remaining… remaining only because they are nobodies without him.
It hasn’t quite come to this yet, but does anyone think it isn’t inevitable?
Abbott and his urgers and patrons in the media invented this world of chaos in which he and they now see themselves. Let them – and those who cheered for them – wallow in it for a little longer, until Abbott and those who boosted him are just another pathetic collection of political corpses, lying in shallow political graves of their own digging.
I feel sad dtt left me off the list. 🙁
dtt
[Now the REASON Gillard acted so quickly on Slipper was because she feared that Rudd was going to get him on side and be able to promise majority government in his own right, if he was PM..]
Oh, and provide just ONE bit of evidence to support this.
I have never seen this scenario suggested before, by anyone. If it’s not simply the product of your own fevered imagination, please provide some evidence to back it up.
mike
what do you want to be – a feminist, a hack or a misguided greenie?
Tpof
So glad you post here. I hate the way that some people place other posters straight into little boxes so they can vilify them.
DTT
I never agreed with the flaky comments about Wilkie. Just confirmed he was and is Independent and saiking his own course right or wrong.
However to get certainty for numbers in the House Gillard appointed Slipper as Speaker.
Nothing to do with fears about Rudd. Just maximising stability for Labor and chances of getting legislation through.
IF Rudd was a consideration it was not the first order one and anyone suggesting it was is stupid. Staying in Government is more important than faction fights.
bushfire B
what more can be said – saves us all from verbal outrage
liberal (and mates) expiation needs to go on quite some time and well after abbott
i am not on any list and proud of it … where is the old sage tom paine?
50% of rudd’s strategies was genuine defence of party –
…and the other 50% was self interest.
[Only in the ACT:]
that is a little bit harsh isn’t it?
zoom
I’m simply an admirer of Julia Gillard without any definitive bent.
has any psychotherapy explanation of abbott been done? – about his full past – we get descriptions of behaviour but no explanation – is it mental or environmental ?
zoomster
probably – like everyone in the game
WWP
If you wanted to be involved in litigation which never ends or beat a charge, ACT is the preferred venue.
mikehilliard
Posted Thursday, February 26, 2015 at 12:43 pm | PERMALINK
zoom
I’m simply an admirer of Julia Gillard without any definitive bent.
—well in way we all admire JG – even though she has had quite attention for any one individual – however she has a few flaws, mid 2010 being somewhat major
Zoomster
In the weeks leading to the 2012 Rudd challenge, there were media reports about Rudd meeting with Slipper and from memory also Katter. The possibility of Rudd cobbling a deal together with Katter and Slipper was being discussed in the media, presumably (and I am guessing here) replacing Wilkie and Windsor as supporters of minority government. Rudd was known not to be sympathetic to Wilkie’s pokie proposals (and I do NOT support him on this)and Windsor clearly was not a fan.
If Rudd’s challenge was to be successful then he would need to assure caucus he had the numbers – Katter was pretty much a given but he would need one more. Slipper as a fellow Qld’er was the obvious target.
I saw Rudd’s face and behaviour the day news of the Slipper speaker deal was announced. He was NOT a happy chappy. He was at a Kate Jones campaign event.
Bemused – What do you think Rudd’s role was in the Slipper appointment? Was he planning the same deal? It was stupid either way, although Rudd was not bound by any agreement with Wilkie or Jenkins, so it was marginally less of a risk for him.
geoffrey
50% isn’t great for a PM, whose focus should be on the country.
I’m actually hard up to think of anything that Rudd did for the party which wasn’t driven by self interest.
Peter Martin is supporting this.
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/greens-offer-tony-abbott-a-13-billion-budget-saving-20150226-13oucn.html
JG and KR were or should have been a great team – what does it matter who goes first in scheme of things? i blame them both for falling off the winners podium – not sure who fell the most or first caused trip – also blame third person on podium BB for grandstanding on ETS – but that race is water under bridge sorry to say
zoomster
Posted Thursday, February 26, 2015 at 12:54 pm | PERMALINK
geoffrey
50% isn’t great for a PM, whose focus should be on the country.
I’m actually hard up to think of anything that Rudd did for the party which wasn’t driven by self interest.
——-win?
Well my memory of the ‘Slipper as Speaker’ thingy seems to differ from the above.
I thought it was largely a result of the machinations of Albo in his role as manager of business in the House.- and cleverly done too.
It doubled the slender majority.
At the time Albo had a foot, quite openly, in both the Rudd and Gillard camps.
Where it went wrong was because the media and the Liberals displayed and colluded in burning one of their own in what must be one of the most disloyal acts of vengeance in recent parliamentary history.
Remember Slipper was the bloke, one of ‘them’, at whose wedding several of the Libs rorted the expenses system . Abbott included.
But that only emerged after the election.
Convenient.
But that didn’t stop the media/Libs from getting him, after someone secretly dobbed him in for doing what they were doing [Brandis is the susoect for that isn’t he?] ie rorting expenses.
Sleazy.
They tried to get Slipper on the Ashby bit and the culpability of high ranking Libs in that unseemly affair has never been fully exposed – most strange – despite Judge Rares [sp?] judgement. And Ashby has been cast adrift since – again after his usefulness has conveniently disappated.
Even more sleazy.
They tried to get Slipper and eventually succeeded in the public perception, on his sexism conveniently forgetting the rampant sexism and misogyny endemic at all levels in the Liberal Party and the media. Again Abbott in particular.
Remember various pollies, Brough for one – again -involved in the restaurant menu affair?
That could have been fully exposed but never was thanks to media collusion.
At least it gave us one of the great speeches made by an Australian politician.
The whole thing was pretty much a case study of grubby politics by the Liberals and the media and in a country which had a decent media the Libs would have crashed and burned on this issue.
It is an indictment of the media/Libs that they won that battle.
Grubby.
[I’ve been too busy to catch the news of late, but the impression Ive had of Abbott is that he’s nearing the end. So I reckon Cassidy is right when he says Abbott can’t last until mid year.
]
Re-writing the ALP leadership rules afterwards might be up there.
Clearly he had nothing personal to gain from that, as he would never again be leader.
I must admit I prefer JG in this debate – but for the honest reason of having seen Governemnt work from the inside while Rudd was leader. And it didn’t – or at least not like it should.
The tradgedy was that Rudd was one of the best campaigners the ALP ever produced and JG one of the best small-room numbers workers. Between the two of them they could have run the country for a decade.
Lizzie
I am sorry to give offence but EVERY BLOODY ONE of you who participate in (and still do) in the vilification of Rudd, have committed an act of treachery on progressive politics in this country and have been WILLING parties to giving government to Abbott.
I cannot and NEVER will forgive you all fore your treachery, and regard you as people who will destroy the good name of another just to protect yourselves from accusations of poor judgment.
Whatever Rudd’s faults were, he did not and does not deserve the vilification and hatred espoused by you and so many others.
A politically misjudged and ill timed move was made on Rudd by factional hacks in 2010. Alright. That is politics. It is a dirty game and all the players are a bit dusty.
BUT! Rather than a rational acknowledgment of “oops! we misjudged” the Rudd haters (or Gillard supporters) embarked on a nasty campaign of personal attack and hatred. This was simply to convince the world and perhaps themselves that there was really a good reason for the political attack on Rudd. So in order to defend youseles from accusations of misjudgement you embShame on you! Shame!
[BUT! Rather than a rational acknowledgment of “oops! we misjudged” the Rudd haters (or Gillard supporters) embarked on a nasty campaign of personal attack and hatred. This was simply to convince the world and perhaps themselves that there was really a good reason for the political attack on Rudd. ]
Or maybe there was a reason and you just don’t agree with it. Either way now, it’s old news and the caravan really has rolled on.
Sorry for previous post.
Re possible date of leadership change, one looming date is April 25 – centenary of Gallipoli landings, who here can stomach our leader at the memorial ceremonies?
If there are negotiations before, an agreement may be reached for Abbott to have his Anzac Day as leader and then stand down.
(I know this is not long before the budget, but what occasion do you think is more important to Abbott?)
[If you wanted to be involved in litigation which never ends or beat a charge, ACT is the preferred venue.]
I had read your comment much more narrowly focused on the quality of the legal reasoning of that particular judgement – my apologies
Rates
What a sensible comment.
Rudd was an ideas man and policy wonk. Gillard a numbers person and implementer. Together they made a fabulous team. Two terms of Rudd, with a transition to Gillard in year 7/8 would have given us probably 12 years of good Labor government. Instead we have Abbott.
Socrates,
[Even better, the expenditure of just $7.1 billion for 748,000 homes means that each NBN connection has cost around $10,000 per household. No wonder they were targetted in marginal electorates!]
What on Earth are you going on about? The roll out of the NBN at least during Labor was pretty nearly random wrt electorate boundaries. Since Turnbull the roll out has a bias towards Liberal electorates but that is for reasons of opportunism rather than targeting.
The project by its very nature is front loaded. Much of the work is behind the scenes and not directly related to per-house costs. Back haul networks, business systems, satellite acquisitions etc.
What Turnbull has effectively done is cancel the roll out of a technology that will still be in use 50 years from now, and replaced it with a temporary network that in 5 years time will still have to be replaced. And the only viable replacement is fibre.
We’re paying tens of billions for fraudband. That’s not to avoid the cost of building a FTTH network. That’s simply to defer it. And in so doing we are actually adding billions to the cost of the eventual outcome.
daretotread@187
Time you had a cup of tea, a Bex, and a good lie down. You’ll feel better in the morning.
BB and PTMD
Excellent posts from both of you.
Let the fool voters suffer till they feel pain.
Like my tradie neighbours who Swann n Rudd kept working right through the GFC although never acknowledged by them, who drive up to date $100K 4x4s with $100 K vans, who couldn’t name their local mp or any minister, who have enjoyed many small business handouts 2007-2013 (as suggested by their accountants) with no knowledge that they were Labor initiatives, and who have internalised the mantra “Labor bad, Liberals good”.
Presently they are quiet.
But I don’t want Abbott to go until he stuffs the economy enough for them to feel it.
Blimey.
Seen this [I’m assuming it is genuine]?
A letter from the UN Human Rights people to Abbott re the recent fracas.
Strong stuff.
http://www.ishr.ch/sites/default/files/article/files/the_prime_minister_of_australia.pdf
daretotread
Posted Thursday, February 26, 2015 at 1:03 pm | PERMALINK
Lizzie
I am sorry to give offence but EVERY BLOODY ONE of you who participate in (and still do) in the vilification of Rudd, have committed an act of treachery on progressive politics in this country and have been WILLING parties to giving government to Abbott.
I cannot and NEVER will forgive you all fore your treachery, and regard you as people who will destroy the good name of another just to protect yourselves from accusations of poor judgment.
Whatever Rudd’s faults were, he did not and does not deserve the vilification and hatred espoused by you and so many others.
A politically misjudged and ill timed move was made on Rudd by factional hacks in 2010. Alright. That is politics. It is a dirty game and all the players are a bit dusty.
BUT! Rather than a rational acknowledgment of “oops! we misjudged” the Rudd haters (or Gillard supporters) embarked on a nasty campaign of personal attack and hatred. This was simply to convince the world and perhaps themselves that there was really a good reason for the political attack on Rudd. So in order to defend youseles from accusations of misjudgement you embShame on you! Shame!
———actually there is a point here – it was internal alp that produced abbott – and blame against rudd is NOt enough. that is true. we really live in tripwire of past errors at present, more quagmire. hope there is a ladder
[Re-writing the ALP leadership rules afterwards might be up there.
Clearly he had nothing personal to gain from that, as he would never again be leader.]
Well, if he had managed to win the election it would’ve become that much harder to replace him. Questions still remain over whether that should be the case. The leadership changes are still an experiment which will be played out over the next 5-10 years or longer.
daretotread@160
And you know this how?