After a slightly surprising week of polling, in which Newspoll, Essential and Morgan all placed Labor in the range of 53% to 54% after bias adjustment, the BludgerTrack aggregate finds a bounce back to the Coalition from the abysmal depths plumbed after Australia Day. The Coalition is up by 2% on the two-party and primary vote, at the expense of the Greens as well as Labor, and by 10 on the seat projection, with three gains in Victoria, two each in New South Wales and Western Australia, and one each in Queensland, South Australia and Tasmania.
Newspoll is the only one of the three to have supplied new leadership ratings, and since no new figures emerged last week, they weigh heavily upon the model’s current readings. This might be deemed unfortunate, as some of the Newspoll numbers look a little idiosyncratic. In particular, the minus 14% net approval for Bill Shorten is his worst in any published poll since he became leader, and nine points worse than any result this year. It may be that when the dust settles, this result will show up as a correction to the anomalous recent trend in his favour, returning him to his long-term equilibrium just below zero.
Among the many interesting features of the Newspoll result was the personal rating for Tony Abbott, which all but matched the results Newspoll produced a fortnight ago from a sample that gave the Coalition such devastating numbers on voting intention. Indeed, the latest Newspoll runs a very close second to the one a fortnight ago as the worst personal result Abbott has suffered in a poll as prime minister. The trend chart shown on the sidebar to the right accordingly shows no respite in Abbott’s collapse since Australia Day, in strong contrast to voting intention.
chinda63
I agree wholeheatedly.
People here who side with the Liebs to say the choice of Slipper as Speaker was unwise just so they can take a shot at FPMJG, are not only dumping on a damned fine Speaker, they are also pathetic.
I mean ‘wholeheartedly, ‘though ‘wholeheatedly’ could be the correct adverb. 👿
Question, I don’t know if you are right, but I think Turnbull is in the best position to know. Knowing he is disliked by many colleagues he obviously believed it would have been counter-productive to throw a grenade and openly campaign, and who’s to know he wasn’t right.
Abbott is, by and large, irrelevant.
Just the figurehead bovver boy chosen by the Liberal Party to represent them.
Made acceptable in contrast to the other mob by an unrelenting vitriolic propaganda campaign from the mass media ABC included.
The Party was tasked by the powers that be – BCA, IPA. Rupert, the banks, COAL et al – to do a job.
Small government, increase taxes on lower incomes, enact favours to big business and the ‘right people’ eg keep negative gearing, subsidised super, break public health, NBN and education – all the standard stuff the RIGHT have been on about since Noah was a lad.
They, the party as a whole and its constituent members, have failed.
They can’t get the legislation pass the public.
Hockey failed at the budget by his sheer arrogance and ignorance.
Pyne has been, as we all knew he was going to be, a massive flop.
Dutton was and still is a dodo.
Andrews was, still is, a joke.
Morrisson is an evil man, and incompetent despite his reputation.
Bishop the elder is … and so it goes on and on down the list.
Turnbull has done OK, he has. as was in his job speccy, screwed the NBN. Good boy Mal, good dog.
The constituent bits are failures and the one thing the powers that be did not expect has happened.
The public woke up.
The emperor and his attendants are naked.
And the laws that the PsTB [powers that be] want passed are stagnating.
Not good enough Liberal party.
Do ‘something’ about it.
Changing the leader is ‘something’.
But changing the leader is only tokenism, putting lipstick on the pig, the party and its ideology stays the same just a few people shuffle around a bit.
The problem, for the Oz people, is not Abbott, its not even the Liberal Party.
Its the PsTB.
TA’s first act this morning, apparently. Politics Live; The Age.
[9:14am: ….then there was a quick pit stop at Old Parliament House (aka the Museum of Australian Democracy) where Mr Abbott donated a blue tie (Hermes) and a bike (Hillbrick) for exhibition.]
I’m overcome at the humour shown by Dear Leader.
This could be a bit of an insight toTory thinking
@ABCNews24: Coming up: @CliveFPalmer, former LNP Leader John Hewson & Council of Small Business due to speak. Stream http://t.co/FlRWJAIwAW #auspol
bemused@96
That is just disgraceful.
Not to mention most people pictured appears like they genuinely need help.
http://junkee.com/theres-a-giant-obama-style-billboard-of-tony-abbott-in-sydney-that-reads-hopeless/51921
I don’t know of anyone here who thinks Julia Gillard was perfect, so it appears bemused’s cult is a product of his fevered imagination.
fredex
[But changing the leader is only tokenism, putting lipstick on the pig, the party and its ideology stays the same just a few people shuffle around a bit.]
I won’t say that the leader is irrelevent, because he symbolises everything that is wrong with the current government, but I agree that the other spivs and shonks will still hang around till the next election and will still support the same regressive policies.
No, it is too early to dump Abbott. I agree with the aversion therapy argument. Both the Liberal Party and the Australian voters have not suffered enough of a lesson about being very careful of whom you allow to become PM.
Somewhere at the point of both his party and the voters going on their knees begging to be released from the torment of Abbott should do it.
I have no pity. The upper class voted for the party he lead, the middle class, the working class, the poor and the rich, people who had kids with disabilities voted for the Libs, people with disabilities, teachers, public servants, cockies on their farms, people on Centrelink, the tradies, even migrants and students voted for this trainwreck. This was despite the evidence staring them in the face.
The Liberal Party knew Abbott was batshit crazy and no more suitable as a Prime Minister than Ivan Milat as an ambulance driver.
So do I think Abbott should to asap for the good of the country? Not bloody likely. The best thing for this country, in the long-term, is that Australian voters learn that a vote is a precious thing, not a means of retribution nor an SMS thumbs-up in the Eurovision Song Contest.
Consequences: That is what voting and electing your party leader has, consequences. And when those consequences seem almost unbearable, which should be by the Federal election in 2016, it will be the right time to turf Abbott.
Some lessons are painful learning.
triton,
I’m sure Turnbull knows better than me, my post was mainly regarding my own boredom of the situation. I’m sure the MSM have a far greater tolerance of his “cuteness” than I do, but it is beginning to grate on me.
At what point will he be decisive? It seems to me Abbott is demonstrably terminal. Meanwhile, the longer all this lingers the animosity in the LNP grows, and his enemies have more time to organise an alternative.
Sure, he may be carefully timing it to perfection to call a snap poll on the honeymoon for all I know. But again, that would be too cute. It just looks like he is happy to sit back and inherit a complete shambles.
One of the biggest tragedies of the last few years is that we didn’t get to lock down what a great benefit to our parliamentary practices a truly independent and strong speaker is.
Slipper might be all sorts of things, but in the chair he was very very good and it’s our loss that we won’t see the like again.
As supporters of the Henry Tax Review, the Greens have proposed changes to to the superannuation tax concession system with the aim of raising revenue for services such as hospitals and schools.
The proposal would also fix an inequity. At the moment Australians earning less than $19,400 pay no tax on their income but the standard rate of 15 per cent on their super contributions. The proposal would ensure they paid no tax on their super contributions.
It has been independently costed by the Parliamentary Budget Office who has found it would save $3.4 billion per year.
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/greens-offer-tony-abbott-a-13-billion-budget-saving-20150225-13oucn.html
[The plan would tax superannuation contributions on a progressive scale rather than the present flat rate of 15 per cent and 30 per cent for workers earning more than $300,000.
Australians on the 19 per cent marginal tax rate would pay 4 per cent on their super contributions, Australians on the 33 per cent rate would pay 15 per cent, Australians on 37 per cent would pay 22 per cent, and Australians on the 45 per cent rate would pay 30 per cent.
As a supporting measure, the policy would also clamp down on “churning” wages through super funds. It will no longer be possible for Australians over 55 to get a tax benefit just for putting their salary into a super fund while drawing an equivalent wage from the same fund.
The change is backed by the Australian Council of Trade Unions, the Australian Council of Social Service, Anglicare and the Australia Institute. It is builds on a recommendation of the Henry Tax Review.]
Christine Milne was interviewed by Michael Brissenden on ABC Radio National AM: http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/am-with-michael-brissenden/6263160
Question@110
Abbott: No Promises. Only Consequences.
Former Prime Minister Julia Gillard was not perfect, she made some unwise decisions, held some views which people did not understand, seemed unsure in the start of her role and did not please everyone all the time. She made mistakes and misteps.
She was also one of the best Prime Ministers Australia has had since Gough.
question
Turnbull has not gone for the leadership yet for a simple reason. Numbers.
You do not challenge until you get the numbers. His latest product differentiation says he is getting closer to having the numbers.
When that happens Turnbull will challenge and he will not worry about the NSW election or the budget. He will go as soon as he has the numbers.
That is the numbers to go as a proper Prime Minister not a puppet Prime Minister.
I agree the delay is the right dithering in denial thinking they can have anyone but Turnbull. At some point they are going to realise its Turnbull or bust for them. (I think it will still be bust)
Abbott presser on 24
Greens Presser now
Lizzie – abbott might need that bike back soon ?
“@ABCNews24: AusVeg: The main excuse raised with us time & time again is that it costs too much to change packaging. We believe that’s an excuse”
They used example of changes to labelling to have movie competitions and World Cup promotions. Labelling readily changed at little or no cost when it is to manufacturer’s advantage. Same for country of origin labelling
[Mr Abbott donated a blue tie (Hermes) and a bike (Hillbrick) for exhibition]
Wasn’t he given a bike in the past few years? I seem to recall something in his register of pecuniary interests.
I wonder if this is the same bike. Either way, it’s obviously one that is surplus to requirements. This is a man who needs to get on his bike every day in order to remain as close to sanity as humanly possible.
dave
Abbott is showing some changes today, reversing on food labelling, changing his story on children in detention. Simkin and Credlin must have worked hard on him overnight.
WA Greens Senator, Scott Ludlam on the nuclear power debate in South Australia: https://newmatilda.com/2015/02/26/nuclear-industry-trial-scott-ludlam-hopes-so
[An inquiry into how to get to zero emissions electricity as cheaply and rapidly as possible would have made a far more timely and valuable contribution to debates over energy policy and rebooting South Australia’s manufacturing sector than another rake through the slowly cooling ashes of the nuclear dream. Nonetheless, the lid has been lifted once again, and we can only hope that the Royal Commissioner is willing to take an unblinking look at the evidence, so that the failed hopes and broken promises of the atomic age can be set to rest once and for all. ]
chinda
He also spent a motza on a stationary exercise bike for his office, for the days when he couldn’t ride outside.
Yes Puff that’s exactly my thinking. Too many people refusing to accept the consequences of their choice. Too many people thought piling in with Rupert and the rest of the filth on Juliar was cost free. Too many people thought giving Abbott a go was cost free. Too many people thought sprouting inanities like ‘they’re all the same’ was cost free.
They need to learn that the right to vote comes with the responsibility that the voters own the consequences of getting it wrong. That the polls could actually swing back towards the Libs this fortnight shows that the lesson is no where near learnt.
I said here several years ago that the next election (2013) would be the most critical in this nation of several decades. It was a choice between generally good governance (if very ragged around the edges due to leadership issues) and a forward looking country, or a backward looking misrule of imbeciles. The voters did actually get it wrong. In serious ways with long lasting consequences.
To get rid of Abbott now runs the serious risk that the sideshow style of politics that got us here will just continue on. Just move on to a more popular face that appeals to the punters. We need to have the stupidity of letting buffoons like Abbott and his merry band of dickheads anywhere near real important decisions that affect us all rammed down our collective throats. Just maybe then we might actually realize that politics isn’t just showbiz for ugly people. It’s important, the decision made have real consequences.
That said, I very much doubt the Liberal party are of a mind to let us suffer much longer. They’ll definitely be trying to put as much distance between themselves and Abbott soon enough.
Julian Burnside asks, “We’re being asked to give up long-held principles of justice, fairness and liberty, not to mention social cohesion. Is there any threat big enough to warrant that?” http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/feb/26/the-islamophobia-stirred-up-by-abbott-and-bolt-is-a-bigger-threat-to-us-than-terrorism
guytaur
IMO If he was pro-active he would have the numbers. He would get the backing of most of the commentariat if he declared as well. Imagine a week of him speaking freely and the MSM in a gush? There are also others working on the numbers so I’m not sure time is his friend in that regard.
Just makes me think Abbott has something on him…
Puff & ratsak
If hanging on to Abbott achieves a less complacent and more critical electorate, with a clearer idea of what is and isn’t good government, that would the biggest public service the man could deliver.
question
You forget. When Abbott came in he put his people into seats. Moderates that would support Turnbull did mot get selected.
Its truly the right that got control. To get the numbers Turnbull has to wait for the reality of how disastrous the LNP position is in terms of not just personality but policy as well.
Some on the right are still talking Bishop and Morrison. When enough of them realise that is not viable to stay in office then Turnbull will be able to get the numbers
Puff, the Magic Dragon.@99
Yes, Slipper did perform well as Speaker, but he was known to be dodgy and wasn’t called ‘Slippery Pete’ for no reason.
Both Rudd and Gillard and others were at fault for overlooking this in making a ‘clever’ move which should have been seen as entailing considerable risk.
Ratsak
And if ever we needed proof that we have a government with no vision we find that the new head of Treasury reckons Ronald Reagan was some kind of economic genius and there is nothing like a good dose of austerity.
Hopefully this clown won’t get the chance to cause too much damage before Labor returns and can get rid of him.
bemused
Wrong. Slippery Pete is a nickname like JWH Man of Steel. To be taken note of but not a barrier.
That innuendo was just that as the court case has just proved
Palmer Hewson presser on RET
zoomster@107
If you can’t think of a few names then you just haven’t been following things over the last few years.
Back to sleep now.
rossmcg
I’m sure Swanny and Andrew Leigh would be gnashing their teeth at that appointment.
If someone’s surname is Slipper, it doesn’t matter how pure and upright their lives are, they’re going to be called ‘Slippery’.
It’s not something you can use for a reliable character judgement.
ratsak @ 124
[That said, I very much doubt the Liberal party are of a mind to let us suffer much longer.]
I don’t think that the Liberal Party gives a squirrel’s fart about us suffering. It is their suffering that they are desperate to address.
bemused
why are you afraid to trot out these ‘few names’?
Too much of a coward to do more than make snide innuendos?
BTW, Abbott’s donation of a blue tie to any exhibition about politics in Australia is an admission he’s doing it on purpose.
And I bet he doesn’t even realise it.
Juvenile moron.
zoomster@137
No desire to start a flame war.
You and I and they know who they are. That’s good enough.
rossmcg@130
Without the Senate blocking the worst of the tories ideology driven nonsense, we would all be stuffed.
The so called ‘Welfare Reforms’ still (attempt) to attack those with little capacity to fight back while nothing is yet being done to undo the *entitlements* of the wealthy and business welfare.
Puff and bemused
Sorry but the appointment of Slipper was a foolish, Machiavellian, and tricky manoeuvre by Gillard, which was dangerous and almost certain to fail.
Slipper was a WELL known problem, known for being creative with his records and probably fond of the grape. Labor had often tackled him and disparaged him for his behaviour. He was already known as Slippery Pete.
Gillard and the ALP brains trust wanted to get a buffer in parliament and to be able to renege on promises to Wilkie. It was however STUPID politics.
Gillard was made to look treacherous (hurt the harmless Jenkins, went back on a deal with Wilkie, too clever by half, etc) Each of these perceptions was ENTIRELY predictable. Bad politics.
The fact that Slipper was a KNOWN problem should have made the brains trust very, very, very wary of him. The fact that Abbott was maliciously going after Thompson and Gillard herself should have warned them that the speaker needed to be squeaky, squeaky clean, which everyone knew Slipper was not. Stupid, dangerous politics and DOOMED to fail. I have no idea which morons were advising Gillard but whoever they were, they should be sent back to politics kindergarten.
Bemused ‘You and I and they know who they are. That’s good enough.’
Well I don’t, so who are they?
bemused
as I said, they’re non existent – so if you and I know who they are, we’re agreeing they don’t exit.
There is no cult.
There are, however, a substantial number of posters who want the right to be able to discuss the lessons to be learnt from the Rudd/Gillard/Rudd saga without being bullied.
If you have arguments, based on reason and evidence, to put forward to defend Rudd and vilify Gillard (and you don’t seem capable of even occasionally doing the reverse, so you’re definitely one eyed on this matter) then go for it.
If all you are going to do is resort to name calling – which you’re too cowardly to even specify who it’s aimed at – then you have no argument, and should accept that.
Meanwhile, when people want to discuss Rudd/Gillard/Rudd, butt out.
One problem is shown here. The abuse of process by the Liberals in 1975 means Labor and others in the Senate have not blocked supply.
Blocking supply is a legitimate thing to do. This forces the government to either do another budget or go to an election.
The abuse of process was getting the GG to sack the sitting PM.
As a result our system and the people are suffering now. from an extremist government that is doing almost the opposite of what it said it would do before the election.
I do think blocking supply has a role to play. The political consequences means it should not be done lightly but it is a legitimate use of power by the Senate.
PeeBee
[ Bemused ‘You and I and they know who they are. That’s good enough.’
Well I don’t, so who are they? ]
Please don’t feed the animals. Some of them bite.
dtt
[Mr Rudd’s staff member said it was well known Mr Rudd and Mr Slipper were friends.
“Yes, they are long-term friends and Mr Slipper represents the area where Kevin grew up,” she said.
“But no, there is no involvement in any shape or form.”
At a joint media conference on the Sunshine Coast last week, Mr Slipper heaped praise on the former prime minister for visiting the region.
“Kevin and I of course go back quite a long way. We used to do a radio program in Brisbane together,” Mr Slipper said at the time.
Mr Slipper said Mr Rudd had attended his wedding five years ago.
]
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/rudd-denies-kingmakers-role-20111124-1nwfr.html
Any criticism of Slipper casts Rudd’s judgement – even if it’s only when it comes to who he chooses as friends – into question.
[I have no idea which morons were advising Gillard but whoever they were, they should be sent back to politics kindergarten.]
According to Bemused, it was Rudd 😀
Ray Hadley was just having a big moan about first Hicks, then Slipper “worming their way out of serious criminal charges” by “relying on technical points of law”, like the right of appeal.
He then went on the brag how “they” (the Hadley “Team” and his listeners) had a pedophile offender re-locked up, even though he had completed his sentence.
This is a man who I know (from direct sources) is using every legal trick and delay in the book to avoid paying up to a woman he libelled, the Fish & Chip Shop Lady, and vilified on air for remaining loyal to her husband, even though he was found by the jury to have offended on all counts cited.
Hadley’s thrust in the Slipper matter was that “everyone knows he was guilty” and so why don’t they just lock him up and throw away the key? To him – and too many others, unfortunately – the only court is the Talkback Radio Court.
In his demented head Hicks was “guilty”… ofwhat he doesn’t say… except to mumble confused shibboleths about “helping Osama bin Laden” and “travelling to Afghanistan”. That the offence Hicks was “convicted” of does not and did not exist is no excuse in Hadley World or in the minds of Team Talkback.
As regards Slipper, he was found guilty once, and that’s the only finding that should stick.
Truly an odious person.