After a slightly surprising week of polling, in which Newspoll, Essential and Morgan all placed Labor in the range of 53% to 54% after bias adjustment, the BludgerTrack aggregate finds a bounce back to the Coalition from the abysmal depths plumbed after Australia Day. The Coalition is up by 2% on the two-party and primary vote, at the expense of the Greens as well as Labor, and by 10 on the seat projection, with three gains in Victoria, two each in New South Wales and Western Australia, and one each in Queensland, South Australia and Tasmania.
Newspoll is the only one of the three to have supplied new leadership ratings, and since no new figures emerged last week, they weigh heavily upon the model’s current readings. This might be deemed unfortunate, as some of the Newspoll numbers look a little idiosyncratic. In particular, the minus 14% net approval for Bill Shorten is his worst in any published poll since he became leader, and nine points worse than any result this year. It may be that when the dust settles, this result will show up as a correction to the anomalous recent trend in his favour, returning him to his long-term equilibrium just below zero.
Among the many interesting features of the Newspoll result was the personal rating for Tony Abbott, which all but matched the results Newspoll produced a fortnight ago from a sample that gave the Coalition such devastating numbers on voting intention. Indeed, the latest Newspoll runs a very close second to the one a fortnight ago as the worst personal result Abbott has suffered in a poll as prime minister. The trend chart shown on the sidebar to the right accordingly shows no respite in Abbott’s collapse since Australia Day, in strong contrast to voting intention.
Mention of Mark Latham reminded me of his assessment of George W Bush as “the most incompetent and dangerous president in living memory”. An unwise thing to say even if it was true. A similar assessment certainly applies to Tony Abbott as Prime Minister. He has to go ASAP.
Ambassador to North Korea would be a suitable posting. It would hardly matter what he said while there as the regime ignores any and all criticism.
You would only make Abbott ambassador to a country we wanted to start a war with.
Good Morning
I would make Abbott Ambassador to Iraq. He might accept as being near a war. If he annoys the Iraqis enough thy might demand our military forces withdraw.
In other words its a position I think Australia wins either way
From Hartcher’s article:
[Tony Abbott has taken on the character of a punchdrunk right-wing pugilist, furiously attacking the president of the Australian Human Rights Commission and disparaging Australian Muslim leaders.
It’s no accident. It’s his attempt to protect his remaining support base among the Liberal party’s conservatives.
This has allowed Malcolm Turnbull effortlessly to emerge to point up another way, a way to what he has described as the “sensible centre” of Australian politics.]
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/tony-abbott-clutching-at-straws-in-attempt-to-protect-remaining-support-base-20150225-13owou.html
“@ABCNews24: #BREAKING: Former Federal Parliamentary Speaker Peter Slipper wins appeal in ACT Supreme Court against his conviction on dishonesty charges.”
[Those you’d expect to stand up for moderate decency, Malcolm Turnbull and Julie Bishop, are phonies, faux moderates in a party which needs some checks and certainly some balance.]
This from the age nails it IMHO.
So Julia Gillard is further vindicated in her choice for Speaker
ltep@31
Too logical ??
abbott thinks he is another Churchill. He was told he is *special* all his life. The rules don’t apply to him.
We can only hope he stays to do more damage after he is sacked as PM – whatever form that takes.
lizzie@39
Which bit to keep ?
Na – chuck the lot of him out.
Alternatively, Abbott could be made ambassador to the Holy See. Then he could spend endless hours with his mate Pell while bing supported by us taxpayers.
[
So Julia Gillard is further vindicated in her choice for Speaker]
It was always and remains a desperate and dumb choice that could not be vindicated if Slipper was beatified. It was and looked like a silly uni student prank and reminded people of the stupid uni student prank that got her the job I’m the first place. There is a sadness and irony in how well both might have done in those roles has they come to them in a dignified way.
you are all acting like he’s gone
get real
tony is here to stay
australia is a weak venal spiteful little country which loves knows and deserves this vicious thing which lives in kirribilli house
the polls are coming back and will continue to do so
uncle tony will lead them to the next election and win
the electorate will realise he’s not so bad after all
he’s one of us…as mean as the rest of us
and the fabric of the australian socius will undergo the most profound deterioration in its history
and we will all deserve it
tony abbott IS australia
WWP
Slipper was a success as Speaker. The best we have seen in our parliament. This court case says all the stuff Abbott used to discredit him was LNP bile only. No facts.
Remember the extraordinary lengths Abbott went to to do the discredit. He even went so far as to say he got to choose who votes and who does not instead of the voters when he ran out of the HOR with Pyne
The headline is ‘Abbott Government shouldn’t put all the security eggs in one basket.’
Slipper wins his appeal and the dishonesty conviction has been set aside.
Yet another example of the ethics and morals of the Liberal Party.
Now, will Slipper let fly? I certainly hope so!
So will the person or organisation who referred Slipper to the AFP now be named? Or will the scumbag remain anonymous thanks to the Liberal Federal Police?
I reckon that Abbott should be parachuted in as Pope.
They all reckon the Captain’s Pick is good-oh.
BCassidy just finished his morning segment with Faine on ABC. Agrees that Brandis should be referred to AFP, but reckons not sure how it will go considering the AFP have to report to him.
WeWantPaul@61
I can see an argument for Gillard, however: although Slipper was undoubtable an excellent speaker, I think a large part of that was due to the circumstances of his appointment.
I agree that his appointment was ‘clever’ rather than wise (although there is probably a bit of 20/20 in that assesment).
Also said that he cant see how Abbott can last as leader until mid year
Re Victoria @67: Agrees that Brandis should be referred to AFP, but reckons not sure how it will go considering the AFP have to report to him.
So Brandis should step aside for the duration of the investigation.
Slipper was the best Speaker the House had had in ages and ages.
Steve777
Yes he should step aside
“Doctor plans to graft a living person’s head on to a donor body using procedures he believes will soon be ready” So what will it be: Peta Credlin’s head on Tony Abbott’s body, or Tony Abbott’s head on Peta Credlin’s body?
So, first David Hicks’ trumped up charge and conviction was thrown out and now Peter Slipper’s trumped up charge and conviction has been thrown out.
Justice: 1
Tea Party: 0
triton@28
I’m with you 100% on that.
Abbott can’t go a nano-second too soon as far as I am concerned for all the reasons you state.
He is just an embarrassing oaf who I don’t want representing my country. JWH was bad enough.
As was mentioned with BCassidy, all pollies ar given the opportunity to repay monies, but this course was not afforded to Slipper. How unsurprisement
victoria:
I’ve been too busy to catch the news of late, but the impression Ive had of Abbott is that he’s nearing the end. So I reckon Cassidy is right when he says Abbott can’t last until mid year.
Disagree about getting rid of Abbott asap. This country needs a massive dose of aversion therapy. Until they get it through their heads that letting Murdoch and shock jocks do their political thinking for them and voting for whatever imbecile the Liberals throw up results in this then Abbott’s only possible positive contribution to the nation hasn’t been completed.
Kudelka’s cartoon in the Oz today says it all about Abbott’s desperate over-reaching. Shows him walking into JBishop’s office, and her immediately saying ‘No, you can’t invade Indonesia’.
I must admit I get the impression Abbott lost the leadership spill motion in all but name. When you have a less than convincing win against “none of the above” by 11 votes and then a furhter 7 say you’re on borrowed time, you’re pretty much done.
What remains isn’t leadership manouvering, it’s choreography. The powers that be are trying to pick the time that the knifing does least harm. The main dates to avoid being the NSW election and the budget.
So I suspect the week after the NSW election, which will give the new leader a decent chance of actually getting something ready for Budget night.
I have no inside information at all – this is just my supposition from the mood and tone of the major actors.
WeWantPaul@61
I agree.
But I would add, and the cult will love this, that Rudd was friends with slipper and was involved in getting him on board. 😮
Of course, in the interests of upholding the genius of Julia, Rudd’s role seems to have been quickly airbrushed out. I bet he was relieved later on. 😆
fess
It does appear that the journos within the beltway believe that this govt is struggling under the weight of the Abbott leadership. This extends to Hockey. There is an expectation amongst them that either Turnbull, JBishop and SMorrison will have to take the reins sooner than later.
Also hockey was asked this morning about the fees being applied for foreigners purchasing ppty in Oz. He could not answer basic questions. BCassidy reckons it is another policy announcement on the run. They are a bloody rabble
[But I would add, and the cult will love this, that Rudd was friends with slipper and was involved in getting him on board. :eek:]
What is this “cult” of which you speak? 😉
I think it makes perfect sense that Rudd was involved, especially given the way it spectacularly blew up in Labor’s face 😛
Your turn 😀
What a beatup. Obviously that load is shared with all the other taxpayers too. Does all the companies receiving subsidies say thanks too?
citizen@46
No, that is not what she is saying. I fail to see how you can read that into the statement.
Sounds like a fair enough comment to me. If you think that Howard and Murdoch don’t have some sway over the Pariamentary Liberal Party, you have not been paying attention.
[So I suspect the week after the NSW election, which will give the new leader a decent chance of actually getting something ready for Budget night.]
The problem with this thinking is that you would hear Baird’s whoop for joy as soon as Abbott got the arse from Canberra. Dumping him and say putting in Turnbull would probably give the NSW Libs a couple of percent TPP.
I wonder if the real reason for the delay isn’t that the right is still trying to get the last of the deluded who think Abbott is salvageable into the ABT (anyone but Turnbull) camp.
Interesting development
http://www.lawyersweekly.com.au/news/16210-first-legal-company-solely-owned-by-native-title-groups-opens-for-business?utm_source=lawyersweekly&utm_campaign=lawyersweekly_Bulletin25_02_2015&utm_medium=email
this week tony brings home the heroin dealers and assures he’s back in front
[Of course, in the interests of upholding the genius of Julia, Rudd’s role seems to have been quickly airbrushed out.]
If anything, Rudd would have been the one doing the airbrushing.
Ratsak
I disagree – you need to differentiate between the medium-term effect and the short-term effect.
Dumping Abbott for Turnbull, then waiting three months then having an election. That benefits Baird.
Dumping Turnbull a few weeks before the election? Or during the election campaign? I’m not so sure.
RE future appointments for ex PM Abbott. I’m seeing some hell hole in equatorial Africa a la Heart of Darkness with Abbott cast as Mr Kutz.
In all seriousness, though; I have never understood what the problem was with appointing Slipper as Speaker.
It WAS a clever political move, made possible because the LNP treated him with such disrespect. And he justified his appointment by being an excellent, non-partisan Speaker.
With respect to Slipper’s various proclivities: if the LNP had serious issues with any of that, they would have shipped him out of parliament as soon as any problem became apparent. That they continued to preselect him time and again is their own fault … as is blatantly moving against him in the middle of a parliamentary term. If they had any sense they would have kept their cards close to their chest and then deselected him closer to the time of the next election.
To cut off an MP at the knees – especially one as proud as Slipper – was asking for trouble. Labor was right to recognise this and to capitalise on it, thus further shoring up their numbers on the floor of the house (especially as the flaky Andrew Wilkie’s support could never really be relied upon).
If we had a half-decent media, they would have homed in on the real issue – why the LNP kept preselecting him if he was such a problem, and what it says about the party’s ethics that they would so spectacularly and publicly dump on him after they had pushed him out of the party – and then maybe things would not have proceeded they way they did.
Which raises another issue: given how the media (at least some sections) seem to have wised up to who Abbott is, how will they report his vindication? Will they quietly file it away on page 24 or will they go feral on Abbott’s arse (and Brandis’ – I bet his fingerprints are all over this as well) as they should?
I guess we’re about to find out …
Hello, do I detect pot shots in the Rudd Gillard war?
The point is Gillard was PM so she says yea or nay. No Gilllard or Rudd comes into it.
That decision was correct. Stealing of diaries, and other such goings on were not in the foresight of someone making that decision.
It was a perfectly reasonable decision to make. As a result we got a couple of weeks to see how parliament can and should operate.
This is why Bishop looks so bad in comparison. Its the chalk and cheese Speakerships.
chinda63
The rumour going around is that for Abbott and his cronies to be dumped, they may resort to disclosing some sort of “bombshell” to vacilitate this
chinda63@83
The identities of the main ‘cultists’ are well known on here.
The key characteristics of the cultists is the belief, against all evidence, that Julia could do know wrong.
OTOH, I, and other more balanced people see the good and bad in both Gillard and Rudd.
I hope that has helped. 😉
Raaraa@84
That is just disgraceful. 🙁
Good to see most of PB doesn’t want Abbott to hang on just to help the ALP. That’s always been my view.
Apart from anything else, I’m bored of watching Abbott struggle on, since 39 party room votes indicated he is terminal.
I would have thought if Turnbull was good leadership material he would be well ahead of all of us on this. I’m sick of his cute “points of difference”, it’s time he got serious! (in fact he should have got serious at the time of the spill).
I am looking forward to the depictions of Turnbull by people like Micallef and cartoonists. I want to see how well the LNP can hold itself together, and how much the MSM will help.
The LNP know they have no hope without changing leader, so bloody well Get On With It!
I notice that the people who have been arrested in the ID fraud case in NSW appear to be of either Chinese or Korean origin, our new trade friends. A very sophisticated operation, apparently, with the ability to create holograms for driving licences, etc.