James J relates in comments that Newspoll in tomorrow’s Australian is a good deal better for the Coalition then its recent polling form, with the Labor lead down from 57-43 a fortnight ago to 53-47. The major parties are tied at 38% of the primary vote with the Greens on 12%. Tony Abbott’s approval ratings have not improved, with approval on 25% and disapproval on 68%. The surprise is the poor ratings for Bill Shorten who is on at 35% approval and 49% disapproval, although he maintains a 43-35 lead over Abbott as preferred prime minister.
UPDATE (Morgan and Essential): Roy Morgan and Essential likewise record movement back to the Coalition, although not nearly as much. The Roy Morgan result, which combines two weekends of face-to-face plus SMS polling from a sample of 2639, has Labor down a point on the primary vote to 40.5%, the Coalition up two to 37.5%, the Greens down two to 10% and Palmer United steady on 2%. Labor’s two-party lead is down from 57.5-42.5 to 56-44 on respondent-allocated preferences, and 57-43 to 55-45 on previous election preferences.
After failing to join in with the other pollsters in registering a post-Australia Day Coalition collapse, Essential Research now finds itself in alignment with Newspoll as Labor’s lead narrows from 54-46 to 53-37, from primary votes of 40% for the Coalition (up one), 41% for Labor (steady), 9% for the Greens (down one) and 2% for Palmer United (steady). The result combines two weeks of polling from a sample of 1836.
This week’s tranche of the Essential survey also inquires about economic management and foreign relations, recording substantial change in sentiment on both counts since the questions were last asked in October. The government’s “good” rating on economic management is down five to 34%, while “poor” is up two to 30%. Respondents are found to have become less concerned about various cost of living measures, particularly and understandably in relation to petrol, but more concerned about debt and deficit.
The Abbott government is being marked down even further on trust in handling international relations, the positive rating down seven to 33% and negative up nine to 62%. For Indonesia specifically, the government’s “good” rating is down eight to 24% with negative up three to 42%. Relations with other countries appear to have become less important to respondents generally, the “very important” ratings for Indonesia, the United States and Britain down by about 10%. However, the results for China and Japan are down a good deal less.
[nappin
Posted Wednesday, February 25, 2015 at 5:43 pm | PERMALINK
You have much to learn Late Riser …. Truthy, Frank, wRONg, the various references to our dear leader, …… ’tis an education.]
And who’s to say “Late Riser” isn’t one of them?
Late Riser sounds like a DOLE BLUDGER to me.
It doesn’t take long here kezza. Under your gaze alone they will be exposed. 🙂
I am sure that many PBers been loving the sight of our egregious Prime Minister stumbling from one embarrassing crisis to the next, and making an utter fool of himself in recent weeks, but I’ve today come to the sad and sorry conclusion that even if it would mean a potential lift in the polls for the Coalition Government, Tony Abbott has to be removed from office for the good of the country, and replaced by Malcolm Turnbull.
The alternative for our nation as it’s now emerging seems to be a full scale descent into outright fascism, the rule of law being jettisoned by an increasingly feral Coalition front bench, and competent and respected public officials being vilified and traduced by Government Ministers.
What’s next? The AFP and ASIO Gestapo knocking at Gillian Triggs’ door at 3am? The ‘Reichstag Fire’ at Parliament House in Canberra with a ‘jihadist’ stitched up with concocted ‘evidence’ of a plot? We are very close to the mean and vengeful Abbott declaring Martial Law, shutting down the Senate, passing an ‘Enabling Act’ to be signed into law by his mate, Cosgrove, and rounding up all of the pinkos at the ABC and Fairfax and chucking them in a Concentration Camp out in the Nullabor!
I thought it would be a while before things got so bad that the Liberals had to act to throw Abbott overboard, but that calculus was based on the state of the polls and my judgement that this was fundamentally about Abbott’s unpopularity – I am increasingly convinced that we cannot afford (bad polling, or not) to have this lunatic as our nation’s leader any longer, or we could see blood in the streets and a police state made de jure, rather than just de facto.
Am I being too harsh?
Nothing like throwing a bit of French to make your CV sound more exotic. No matter that Wilson attended
INSTITUT DE HAUTES ÉTUDES INTERNATIONALES ET DU DÉVELOPPEMENT
GRADUATE INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AND DEVELOPMENT STUDIES
but chose not to refer to the institute by its name in English.
http://graduateinstitute.ch/fr/home.html
It is not hard to picture it, Big Ship. The framework is there.
The Big Ship
Turnbull’s missed the boat.
It will be Morrison who heads the ship of state, in Abbott’s stead.
Of course ABC radio news leads with: The government has attacked the opposition for engaging in gutter politics…
Of course you couldn’t make this stuff up, but anything goes in the bizzaro world of Australia 2015.
Yeah, too late for Turnbull and he knows it, hence the too late product differentiation.
[ Am I being too harsh? ]
Perhaps a little BS, but i can see your reasoning. 🙁
What a load of bull. I don’t go for the sausage sizzles, and I’ve never seen a candidate at our polling station.
[early voters missed out on important election day sausage sizzles and interactions with candidates]
The Big Ship
[I am increasingly convinced that we cannot afford (bad polling, or not) to have this lunatic as our nation’s leader any longer, or we could see blood in the streets and a police state made de jure, rather than just de facto.
Am I being too harsh?]
Not at all.
Abbott wants blood to run in the streets, he desires it. He wants to be a wartime hero (a la Boys Own manual, which he thought he grew up on: and on which his hero Rhodes was pilloried).
He wants it like he wanted a woman when he was in the seminary, surrounded by the castrati: but he didn’t want to take it up the arse like every cardinal he’d ever come across who had to do it to reach the upper echelons of the Vatican.
There’s no denying Abbott is a lunatic, given his exposure to sexual abuse. And he needs to be tooled, very soon, or else the Libs are going to look the fools they are rapidly becoming.
From the Guardian – statement issued by Senator MacDonald:
Ian MacDonald.
Venting.
[For those who have accused me of being sexist for trying to protect witnesses by admonishing senators who were shouting, yelling and interjecting constantly in an orchestrated campaign of disruption, my admonishment was to the perpetrators regardless of their gender.
It just so happens that all of the Labor and Greens Senators at the hearing, who were the perpetrators, were females.]
[Thanks to all of those who have kindly (and not so kindly – they are the majority and are all Labor/Greens staffers, Union heavies and staff and good old Get Up and old leftie journalists) made media and social media comment on recent media reports on the Senate Estimate Committee on Professor Triggs and the partisan-ly titled report on children in detention “Forgotten Children”.
If any of those who have abused me for not reading this partisan , inaccurate report, had themselves bothered to read the facts on children in detention from any number of estimates on immigration – which sadly the Human Rights Commission (AHRC) itself didn’t bother to read – then they may have not been so quick to rush to social media.
Enormous effort has gone into caring for the children in detention with the very best medical and mental health and lifestyle support at significant cost. These children are anything but “forgotten”– maybe they were under Labor but not currently.
In estimates a year ago, and in November last year, the partisan nature of the inquiry was becoming evident. The actual evidence of the Department of Immigration and Border Protection which commented on the Draft Report, was largely ignored by the AHRC. See the addendum to the Report where the Departments objections are published – but unfortunately mostly ignored.
I did read that addendum to the report – which confirmed the partisan nature of the Report and confirmed also my decision not to waste my time on a report which was clearly partisan, about an issue which had largely been addressed – both getting the Children out of Detention, and looking after those with trauma issues from their time in detention. As the boats have been stopped, there is little likelihood of children ever again being put in immigration detention and therefore the report is worthless and irrelevant – unless of course Labor/Greens are returned to government.]
Talk about total waste of taxpayer funds going to this creep’s salary – not to mention oxygen.
Sohar
I was too busy watching expressions on faces. You mean – GASP – they’ve abandoned the blue tie of harmony?
[
805
nappin
It is not hard to picture it, Big Ship. The framework is there.
]
Increasingly.
Which is one reason why the entire non-Coalition majority of the senate should flatly refuse to allow expanded surveillance powers.
One of the few practical barriers we have left against the looming Abbottinsania.
[Big Ship
…passing an ‘Enabling Act’ to be signed into law by his mate, Cosgrove,… ]
In fairness to Cosgrove, he is an unknown quantity on these matters, at this point.
Otherwise, yes.
[Otherwise, yes…]
to the rest of your post.
The Drum was good standard this evening. Tore the welfare report into fairly small pieces.
[…getting the Children out of Detention, and looking after those with trauma issues from their time in detention. As the boats have been stopped, there is little likelihood of children ever again being put in immigration detention..]
Stopping the boats won’t address the second concern he mentions, but we get back to — if the enquiry found that the problems had been solved by the Liberals (having been created by the evil Labor government) and thus were no longer of any concern, then that would be more of a plus than refusing to have one.
It’s not as if this is a government who hasn’t indulged in enquiries of a partisan nature itself.
So, if as reported the govt has lost confidence in Triggs as head of the HRC, wouldn’t the proper procedure have been for the PM to advise the GG to dismiss her?
Then the GG could have taken legal advice as to whether or not any of the conditions in the legislation under which he can dismiss her had been met and decided to act on the PM’s advice or not.
If he had decided to act on the PM’s advice and dismiss her it would have all been proper, legal and above board.
If he decided NOT to act on the PM’s advice and it would have all been proper, legal and above board.
And there would have really, been no political issue to deal with apart from their stupid and embarrassing rantings about bias.
Instead they have the AG’s nuts on the block for a possibly criminal act.
Good Government starts when??
Big Ship –
Didn’t abbott ‘talk’ about Australia needing guided democracy in his book ?
He might try that on, indeed use every stunt possible, but I have confidence that the institutions of our country would prevail. Particularly at HC level.
I have never liked Cosgrove, but doubt if he is anywhere near as mad as abbott and doubt he would go along with what you suggest – for one minute.
The tories are hanging on for dear life with problems wherever they look, but again I doubt that the party room would touch what you suggest. But a few of them maybe, but not enough.
For what its worth, ie little, turnbull looks to be more impatient for the ‘big chair’ in the last few days.
Not that he is much better – people just want to believe he is.
The tories look to have given abbott about 6 months, but will he last that long with ongoing stuffups and dramas etc?
‘I’ve Got Nothing to Hide’ and Other Misunderstandings of Privacy
by Daniel J. Solove
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=998565
(Link to free full PDF on that page.)
“Social Services Minister Scott Morrison has made a plea to upgrade the quality of political debate” – from someone who wouldn’t answer most questions he was asked in his previous position, let alone discuss anything.
Not sure if this link will work, but this is Abbott in QT today: http://t.co/qlyHm8IWNG
adrian
That is a very bad look. I’d like to slap him!
(Don’t tell Tony.)
My German is rusty but since we tend to follow Britain this might be of interest.
Großbritannien schickt bis zu 75 Soldaten in die Ukraine
And then there’s this.
U.S. military vehicles paraded 300 yards from the Russian border
Yes Lizzie, he’s just a cheap and tawdry thug.
adrian
The pic reminded me immediately of a gang of young bullies barging down the pavement, brushing everyone else aside. Depending on when it was taken, it suggests that Shorten had to be “punished” for his attack – which also suggests that the criticisms riled Tony. Good!
This Trigss matter gets more interesting by the minute.
Apparently, Tim Wilson has been promised the job.
The stench is really overpowering. No wonder Turnbull is bailing.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/tim-wilson-already-promised-gillian-triggs-job,7416#.VO1gUK7IWQE.twitter
Peter Dutton being interviewed by Waleed Aly on the Project regarding the pregnant AS on Nauru.
Liar liar pants on fire.
He’s not directly answering the question and just deflecting it and Waleed Aly calling him on that.
GG
[Apparently, Tim Wilson has been promised the job.]
I guessed that yesterday – Tim Wilson is all we need.
MTBW,
Indeed you did. Good prediction.
The Government is confronted with a beast they don’t understand: A person with integrity.
[ Apparently, Tim Wilson has been promised the job. ]
Seriously? That would be too over the top biased even for Brandis surely?
And if this is now going to morph into Brandis illegally trying to create an opening for his tame IPA drone he’s doubly screwed with pike.
GG
[The Government is confronted with a beast they don’t understand: A person with integrity.]
It sure is and because they wouldn’t know integrity if it slapped them in the face they are at a loss and thinking screaming will change things.
[Health department officials told an estimates hearing late on Wednesday that it expects about 5 per cent of services to non-concessional patients which are currently bulk-billed would be privately billed following the changes, which are due to come into effect in July.
This would mean that these patients would have to pay the full cost of the visit upfront, and make their own claim for a rebate from Medicare.
From July, the government is proposing to cut the Medicare rebate for GP visits for non-concessional patients by $5, and allow doctors to recoup the loss by charging patients a fee of up to $5.
But the testimony on Wednesday indicates the government expects doctors will charge significant numbers of patients much more than $5.]
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/hundreds-of-thousands-to-pay-much-more-to-see-gp-senate-hearing-told-20150225-13osuf.html
And today they promised they could produce more jobs. Hah!
[The Abbott government’s efforts to scale back the renewable energy target (RET) have set the industry back 12 years, a Senate estimates hearing has heard.
And the government has told senators it will still pursue the abolition of the Clean Energy Finance Corporation (CEFC), despite accepting advice from the agency on achieving emissions reductions through its direct action policy.
In a hearing on Wednesday, CEFC chief executive Oliver Yates said the agency was reassessing how much it could contribute to Australia’s 5 per cent emissions reduction target by 2020 because of uncertainty over the RET.]
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/ret-negotiations-set-industry-back-12-years-clean-energy-finance-corporation-20150225-13ok66.html
[ The Government is confronted with a beast they don’t understand: A person with integrity. ]
They are trying to get someone to do something, after they have very much gone out of their way to attack them, when they have no power to force her to do anything, and that person is a prominent public figure.
Apart from the reprehensible moral aspect to this it is just so fwarking stupid. They didn’t even try to follow ANY kind of acceptable procedure to achieve their objective that would have given them some kind of cover.
They just expect people to roll over, let them rule as they see fit, and the best we get out of it is entertaining tanties from the “adults” when they dont get their way. Pretty much how they have been treating the Senate isn’t it?
Good Government its not.
this the pulse sums of the govt fairly well
* Abbott with a grin and a vacant far away look in his eyes.
* Pyne pulling a stupid face.
* Bishop and Turnbull discussing an issue and looking like they are half competent.
Also in the pulse, earlier today – Abbott attended a morning tea in Canberra at 9am, flew to Sydney for the presser at 10:15 and the flew back to Canberra.
[Am I being too harsh]
Big Ship – No, sadly I’ve come to the same conclusion. I’d dearly love Labor to return in 2016 but the country needs a change to a less confronting and aggressive leader. Turnbull’s full of himself but is probably the right Lib to take over. He’d also play a cool enough hand up to the election to drag votes to him.
Shorten said Abbott is “psychologically unsuited” to being Prime Minister. Well, Duh!! Seriously, we have had nearly 3 weeks of ‘good government’ and it is just farce after farce. There must be enough intelligent people in the Liberal Party to realise that this just can’t go on.
[BH
Posted Wednesday, February 25, 2015 at 7:11 pm | PERMALINK
Am I being too harsh
Big Ship – No, sadly I’ve come to the same conclusion. I’d dearly love Labor to return in 2016 but the country needs a change to a less confronting and aggressive leader. Turnbull’s full of himself but is probably the right Lib to take over. He’d also play a cool enough hand up to the election to drag votes to him.]
I’ve switched camps too Big Ship. I wanted abbott to survive until 2016 too. But the desire to see the bastard taken down has become overwhelming. We really can’t have a thug like that running the country while our economy goes to hell in a hand basket.
PP,
It’s only a matter of time.
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbotts-leadership-facing-renewed-questions-with-malcolm-turnbull-breaking-ranks-20150225-13osve.html
The trouble is that everyone in Parliament wants Abbott to stay as long as possible.
Most Abbott Ministers, because they realise that they’re too identified with current policies to be able to plausibly deny them under a new leader.
Backbenchers, because – although they realise he’s a disaster – there’s still a wish there that he can turn it around and avoid them Being Just Like Labor (or the Victorian Liberals…)
Malcolm Turnbull, because – out of a mix of practicality and hurt feelings – he wants the leadership handed to him not only on a platter but with a mandate to do whatever he likes attached.
Labor – and Abbott – for obvious reasons.
The weakest link here is the backbench. They’re OK while they’re in Canberra, but if they get back to their electorates and find that the natives are restless, then they’re gone.
—
btw, is Simkin some kind of ABC Trojan horse?
Abbott seems to be getting the kind of media advice you get from someone who is determined to p*ss off the media.
Does anyone know the background to this incident?
[Former Ryde mayor Vic Tagg charged with assaulting current Mayor Bill Pickering at polling station
Posted 30 minutes ago
A former mayor of Ryde Council in Sydney’s north-west has been charged with assaulting current Mayor Bill Pickering.
Cr Pickering was allegedly punched in the face by independent candidate Vic Tagg at a polling station in Putney during a by-election for Ryde City Council last weekend.
Witnesses said Cr Pickering, 52, was punched by the 63-year-old Tagg while handing out ham sandwiches and talking to locals at a school on Morrison Road.]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-25/vic-tagg-charged-after-ryde-mayor-assault/6262396
Does anyone know the background to this incident?
[Former Ryde mayor Vic Tagg charged with assaulting current Mayor Bill Pickering at polling station
Posted 30 minutes ago
A former mayor of Ryde Council in Sydney’s north-west has been charged with assaulting current Mayor Bill Pickering.
Cr Pickering was allegedly punched in the face by independent candidate Vic Tagg at a polling station in Putney during a by-election for Ryde City Council last weekend.
Witnesses said Cr Pickering, 52, was punched by the 63-year-old Tagg while handing out ham sandwiches and talking to locals at a school on Morrison Road.]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-25/vic-tagg-charged-after-ryde-mayor-assault/6262396
Crikey, here’s some history concerning sexism and Ian MacDonald.
http://www.crikey.com.au/2012/04/17/ian-macdonald-adviser-in-sexist-email-row/
GG,
[Apparently, Tim Wilson has been promised the job.]
Triggs has said that the Forgotten Children report received support from all Commissioners, which I presume included Wilson. So such a promise would be bizzare even by their standards which leads me to question IA’s “trusted sources”.
I’ve decided in the last couple of weeks that Abbott has to go now. We just risk leaving him in place for another 18-21 months, especially given the very uncertain economic and internation times we find ourselved in. Apart from being a vicious thug, he’s an idiot.
No wonder policy ‘debate’ is so poor in this country. The GIS (Government Information Service), otherwise known as the ABC, blandly stated on their ‘flagship’ current affairs show that the current expenditure on welfare is ‘unsustainable’.
This is at least debatable, but it’s a fact according to the ABC.
Bugler,
Until it is confirmed, you have every right to be sceptical. But it does fit the conspiracy theory very nicely.
I have said elsewhere that the only job Triggs might consider is a straight swap with Credlin.