Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

Newspoll strays from the pack with an unexpectedly moderate lead for Labor, although Tony Abbott’s personal ratings remain diabolical.

James J relates in comments that Newspoll in tomorrow’s Australian is a good deal better for the Coalition then its recent polling form, with the Labor lead down from 57-43 a fortnight ago to 53-47. The major parties are tied at 38% of the primary vote with the Greens on 12%. Tony Abbott’s approval ratings have not improved, with approval on 25% and disapproval on 68%. The surprise is the poor ratings for Bill Shorten who is on at 35% approval and 49% disapproval, although he maintains a 43-35 lead over Abbott as preferred prime minister.

UPDATE (Morgan and Essential): Roy Morgan and Essential likewise record movement back to the Coalition, although not nearly as much. The Roy Morgan result, which combines two weekends of face-to-face plus SMS polling from a sample of 2639, has Labor down a point on the primary vote to 40.5%, the Coalition up two to 37.5%, the Greens down two to 10% and Palmer United steady on 2%. Labor’s two-party lead is down from 57.5-42.5 to 56-44 on respondent-allocated preferences, and 57-43 to 55-45 on previous election preferences.

After failing to join in with the other pollsters in registering a post-Australia Day Coalition collapse, Essential Research now finds itself in alignment with Newspoll as Labor’s lead narrows from 54-46 to 53-37, from primary votes of 40% for the Coalition (up one), 41% for Labor (steady), 9% for the Greens (down one) and 2% for Palmer United (steady). The result combines two weeks of polling from a sample of 1836.

This week’s tranche of the Essential survey also inquires about economic management and foreign relations, recording substantial change in sentiment on both counts since the questions were last asked in October. The government’s “good” rating on economic management is down five to 34%, while “poor” is up two to 30%. Respondents are found to have become less concerned about various cost of living measures, particularly and understandably in relation to petrol, but more concerned about debt and deficit.

The Abbott government is being marked down even further on trust in handling international relations, the positive rating down seven to 33% and negative up nine to 62%. For Indonesia specifically, the government’s “good” rating is down eight to 24% with negative up three to 42%. Relations with other countries appear to have become less important to respondents generally, the “very important” ratings for Indonesia, the United States and Britain down by about 10%. However, the results for China and Japan are down a good deal less.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

968 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Over the road someone pointed this out. Today a very large % of pollies were wearing ribbons for ovarian cancer. Including Bill and Malcolm. The minister for women ? Nah , not our oaf.

  5. Darn

    I’m mostly worried about Abbott’s fear campaign? I think it was BK who linked an article posted on the Al Jazeera site yesterday Which made excellent points about it.

  8. [Jake
    Posted Wednesday, February 25, 2015 at 7:43 pm | PERMALINK
    Morrison on 7.30.

    Love him or hate him – he’s a skilled politician.]

    He does seem to be auditioning for the PM job in the Centrelink portfolio.

  11. Yeah, I’ve noticed Morrison has had work done on his choppers and he’s smiling, a lot of late…a softer, gentler makeover in progress…

    Not the usual glum, stern looking aggressive brute…

  12. adrian

    It’s not hard to be skilled when confronted with Sales in foot rub mode. Not facing constant interruptions as Bowen was.

    Almost as bad as the ABC Canberra reporter on 24Hrs this morning.
    Introduced the new policy by saying how large a % “welfare” was of the budget & how it was unsustainable… more crap “reporting”

  15. Jake

    Not really that important, however this is just one use of ”

    Scare quotes used to mean “so-called” or to express irony: Your “car” doesn’t actually have any wheels.

  16. [A controversial program aimed at fast-tracking teachers into disadvantaged public schools has been labelled an “expensive experiment” by the teachers’ union.

    Teach For Australia recruits high achieving university graduates from other disciplines and has them in a classroom teaching within six weeks.

    They then complete a Masters of Teaching part-time over two years with mentoring.

    It is being rolled out in Western Australian schools despite generating controversy in other states.

    The State School Teachers Union has labelled the program an “expensive experiment” and an “unacceptable” imposition on school resources.]
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-25/controversial-teaching-program-an-expensive-experiment-union-say/6262004

  17. After his Dracula performance in stopping the boats, to prove he belongs to the human race, Morrison has to smile more often even if it is with the teeth rather than the eyes.

    He has a lot to do do. Totally refused to enter into any debate when it came to the secrecy surrounding boats, but now, hypocritically, demanding debate take place around his proposals in his new portfolio.

    I doubt whether anybody is fooled, but then the Liberals did vote Abbott in as leader which just shows when it comes to the getting and retaining of power, the conservatives are all ends rather than means people.

    Still, while there is so much disarray among the Liberal ranks, it is all popcorn stuff.

  19. Extraordinary insight into the power of Peta Credlin by John Lyons on Skynews just then.

    What a terrible web this Liberal Party has weaved. It is disintegrating.

  22. Appologies if this has already mentioned, but it seems Turnbull is stirring again and has taken yet another opportunity to differentiate himself from Abbott and his supporters. On News Radio just now, a grab from Turnbull saying that Triggs is a “distinguished academic”, saying he was not going to get in to personalities and that the focus needs to be on keeping children out of detension.

  28. Dee @ 876

    [To be honest I cannot fathom the strategy in demolishing Triggs.]

    It’s a visceral response by Abbott and Brandis to every perceived obstruction and threat.

  29. TPOF@878

    Dee @ 876

    To be honest I cannot fathom the strategy in demolishing Triggs.


    It’s a visceral response by Abbott and Brandis to every perceived obstruction and threat.

    I thought they would benefit more for pinning the blame on Labor, who actually enacted those processes.

  30. Dee

    I am trying my hardest to try and see this from their point of view to work out what they are trying to achieve here. The very sad reality is, that without this issue being blown up, this terrible and tragic report would have sunk very quickly in the msm and therefore in the minds of the majority of voters. Now, the Government have a mess on their hands entirely of their own making yet again.

  31. Raaraa@837
    I assume this photo is from when a vote was taken on the SSO.
    So if on party lines everyone swaps sites – opposition is on the affirmative and the govt on the negative…
    Shorten and Abbott were swapping places.

  34. Morrison was actually considered to be a bit of a centrist in LNP terms before he muscled up to “stop the boats” for whatever that’s worth. He’s definitely not an economic or religious hardliner like Hockey and Abbott respectively, although he’s no wet or liberal either.

    Inexperience is the only thing stopping him from getting the top job when Abbott finally gets knifed.

  45. John Reidy

    Of course he took it off on the way to Sydney. The Sydney event was pitched to 2GBland. Can’t have any of that “lefty” stuff on show.

  46. 869
    Rex Douglas
    [Posted Wednesday, February 25, 2015 at 8:33 pm | PERMALINK
    Extraordinary insight into the power of Peta Credlin by John Lyons on Skynews just then.

    What a terrible web this Liberal Party has weaved. It is disintegrating.]

    I watched it too. Richo made me laugh. He was flabbergasted

  47. Riser 825 re Ukraine
    _______________
    A US website reports that the Pres. of Ukraine is in Dubai to buy UIS weapons at a arms fair,an act which said to dismay the Euros,notably France and Germany ,which fear a wider conflict…which they fear the neo-cons in the Pentagon want,in their anti-Russian policies
    Gorbachevov has just warned the US that a “cold “war can soon turn to a” Hot” one with dire consequences for all mankind

    It’s also reported that the Russians are about to lift a ban on supplying Iran with the latest Russian anti-craft missiles which can spot and knock down an aircraft at a range of 1500 Ks

    The Iranians want these as a safegaurd against an Israeli.US attack

  48. Just watched a chunk of the interview with Morrison, but with the sound off. Looked pretty unyielding and belligerent to me. Certainly didn’t come across as the new warm caring Scott.

  49. Morrison’s a smart cookie.

    Don’t be surprised if he emerges PM out of all this god-damned hullaballoo in the LNP.

    Turnbull forgot to grab the ring on the merry-go-round, he’s run his race, and lost – too smart by half.

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