The flurry of pre-spill polling leaves BludgerTrack engorged with new data, offering a high-resolution picture of how things looked immediately before Monday’s Liberal party room meeting. The result isn’t quite matching Julia Gillard at her worst, but it comes awfully close – particularly on the seat projection, since the swing has bitten deepest in the especially sensitive state of Queensland. There has been a straight one-point shift from the Coalition to Labor on the primary vote to add to the two-point shift recorded last week, with other parties remaining stable. Labor is up four on the seat projection since last week, courtesy of gains in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and South Australia.
The leadership ratings are if anything even more remarkable, with new numbers added this week from Newspoll and Essential Research. The collapse in Tony Abbott’s personal rating from an already low base is particularly something to see. It moves more sharply this week than preferred prime minister, since it had only one data point to react to last time rather than two, last fortnight’s Galaxy poll having provided on the latter. The y-axis on the net approval chart formerly ran from plus to minus 40%, but I’ve had to widen it to accommodate the depths presently being plumbed by Abbott. Bill Shorten’s rating softens a little, thanks to a somewhat off-trend result this week from Essential. Full results, as always, are on the sidebar.
[These so-called ‘Christians’ believe in a capricious, vengeful, vindicative diety who leaves Zeus and Moloch for dead]
the diety our farther being lo-cal
MTBW
[I think that people don’t forget these things much as the Party would like them to.]
I think it is the other way around. The Party does not forget, even though the public does not care as long as it can get a competent PM leading a competent Government that is focussed on governing the country and not playing ideological or personality games.
I would have voted for Albo if I had a vote, but Shorten has been, in my opinion, a lot better than I expected. And I think the strategy he is following is right. I actually think, in retrospect, the right decision was made. He does emotion and feeling very well, and I liked him for his willingness to take the fight up to the Liberals in Parliament. But he does not manage the serious stuff as well. Plibersek does it a lot better. Be that as it may, all of them wipe the floor with Abbott.
Not Greece yet but close:
[Chile to square up to widespread tax evasion ]
http://santiagotimes.cl/chile-to-square-up-to-widespread-tax-evasion/
TPOF
[Be that as it may, all of them wipe the floor with Abbott.]
Absolutely agree!
@DrRimmer: Labor’s Trade Minister @DrCraigEmerson was principled in his refusal to surrender to demands for #ISDS in #KAFTA: @SenatorMilne.
Albanese would’ve been a complete disaster, both as Opposition Leader and, if it came to it, as PM.
What the hell are you getting so upset about?” he asked her bewilderedly in a tone of contrite amusement. “I thought you didn’t believe in God.”
“I don’t,” she sobbed, bursting violently into tears. “But the God I don’t believe in is a good God, a just God, a merciful God. He’s not the mean and stupid God you make Him out to be.”
Yossarian laughed and turned her arms loose. “Let’s have a little more religious freedom between us,” he proposed obligingly. “You don’t believe in the God you want to, and I won’t believe in the God I want to. Is that a deal?”
MTBW
Further to my 152, I should say that the report in the press should not be dismissed lightly. While I think it says little about Shorten, it says a lot about the NSW right and the games they continue to play despite the ongoing disasters they have launched through their self-obsessions.
One reason why Mike Baird will win the NSW election is that the black cloud that hangs over the NSW Labor Party is still obvious to the voters and they will not want to reward it with votes.
How many days into Good Government are we now?
[
There are further signs of disarray within the government with frontbenchers publicly contradicting each other over whether or not the GP co-payment has been scrapped.
Shortly after staring down an attempt to oust him from the Prime Ministership, Tony Abbott pledged that “good government” would begin this week.
But he has since been beset by internal confusion about the future of the GP fee and pursued by the opposition over how the government plans to buy new submarines.
]
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/is-tony-abbotts-gp-copayment-scrapped-or-not-government-frontbench-in-confusion-20150212-13cgvn.html
After the doubts about Tones by his colleagues we now seem to have wall-to-wall news about s-w Sydney terrorists and executions in Indonesia.
I’m certainly not in favour of death sentences but ‘you do it there’ then local law applies.
Some deflection by the MSN seems to be on.
gt
[@DrRimmer: Labor’s Trade Minister @DrCraigEmerson was principled in his refusal to surrender to demands for #ISDS in #KAFTA: @SenatorMilne.]
“KAFTA”, “ISDS” ?
Is there a readable interpretation of this?
CTar1
Add to that a tame uniform has been wheeled out to tell us the situation in our battle against the zombie apocalypse “Death Cult” over in Iraq.
CTar1
Add to that a tame uniform has been wheeled out to tell us the situation in our battle against the zombie apocalypse “Death Cult” over in Iraq.
ISDS: Investor-state dispute settlement.
KAFTA: Korea-Australia Free trade agreement.
Ctar
Acronyms to do with Trade deals. I assume KAFTA is Korea. Looking at Wikipedia I think its International State Dispute Settlement
Sorry I mwnt investor not international. Still LU put the corect terms up
“@1petermartin: It’s true @justinbarbour. When unemployment was last this high (in 2002) Abbott was the employment minister. He knows what 6.4% feels like.”
Very Good presser by O Connor.
CTar1
[I’m certainly not in favour of death sentences but ‘you do it there’ then local law applies.]
Yes. And we need to be careful about what we say. But it is still wrong. And we have a right to talk about Australians in the situation, even if we don’t have a right to ask for special treatment. And the Parliamentary statement is driven by the timing of the Indonesian Government, not Abbott’s own political grief.
Also, I can’t get over the role of the AFP in this – and the fact that they should be given a medal, not executed, as they were taking heroin away from Indonesia, not to Indonesia.
http://www.lawyersweekly.com.au/news/16153-harmers-left-holding-the-bill-in-slipper-costs-case
[ Harmers left holding the bill in Slipper costs case
12 February, 2015
Leanne Mezrani
Harmers Workplace Lawyers will write off James Ashby’s million-dollar legal bill after the Federal Court rejected the former staffer’s bid to have the Commonwealth pay his costs in the sexual harassment case against Peter Slipper.
The application, which sought payment of legal costs from Mr Slipper and the Commonwealth, was rejected on Monday 9 February.
In a statement to Lawyers Weekly, Harmers said the firm would continue to cover Mr Ashby’s costs, which in June last year had surpassed $1 million.
The firm also stated that it was considering options for further appeal against the Federal Court decision.
Harmers has been bankrolling Mr Ashby since mid-2012, when he accused Mr Slipper of sending sexually explicit text messages and making unwelcome sexual advances.
The Commonwealth withdrew from the sexual harassment case in October 2012 after settling Mr Ashby’s claim by payment of $50,000.
Two months later, Federal Court judge Justice Steven Rares threw out Mr Ashby’s lawsuit, claiming it was a politically-motivated abuse of process.
Justice Rares also took aim at the conduct of Harmers chairman Michael Harmer, criticising the lawyer for including “scandalous and irrelevant” allegations in the statement of claim.]
http://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2015/feb/12/the-truth-about-bludgers-welfare-dependency-in-australia-is-falling
[ The truth about ‘bludgers’: welfare dependency in Australia is falling
Greg Jericho
The Coalition’s focus on reducing payments to the jobless and single parents ignores the real growth area of welfare – the aged pension
Thursday 12 February 2015 09.55 AEST
The latest figures on welfare recipients reveal that contrary to the scare campaigns, the level of people in Australia on welfare has fallen dramatically over the past decade, and that rather than those on disability pensions, the big increase is those going onto the aged pension.
The Abbott government has never been a fan of welfare. Last year, the then minister for social services, Kevin Andrews declared if nothing was done then in “10 or 15 years time” Australia would be “in the situation that some of the countries in Europe are in”.
This year, upon being appointed Andrews’ replacement, Scott Morrison announced that he would “stop the bludgers”.
So no doubt the new minister would welcome the latest welfare data released by the department of social services last week which showed that excluding Newstart the proportion of the population on welfare fell in 2013.]
guytaur
Unemployment an issue Labor should hammer them on. 100,000 more on the dole than when they took office.
CTar1@119
I am in her electoral region and I do humbly apologise on behalf of my fellow electorates. I know we’re far to the west of people who are affected by the bushfires, but that is no excuse!
gt
[Looking at Wikipedia …]
Having to do this doesn’t make it ‘news’.
just ephemeral crap.
Why Top Analyst Gerard Minack Thinks Australia Will Run Out Of Luck In 2015 — Business Insider, 15 Jan, 2015:
[“The main reason I do not yet have recession as a base case is that leading indicators of employment appear reasonable,” (Gerard) Minack wrote. “If the employment leading indicators turn lower, then the risk of recession would commensurately increase.”]
Unemployment surges to 12-year high of 6.4 per cent; 12,200 jobs shed — ABS via ABC, 12 Feb, 2015.
[ Meanwhile during QT Abbott wonders aloud whether Labor would use the services of a dead parrot North Korean dictator to build Australia’s submarines. ]
It was something i am sure he thought was a good “line” at the time but that really just demonstrates the profundity of his ignorance as to how these things work.
Request for Information: A general communication to suppliers for info in general terms as to what they may have available the could possibly meet the requirement or for a bit contract, part of it.
Request for proposal: A more tightly targeted request to certain suppliers chosen from the responses to the RFI for a detailed proposal to meet a now, better defined requirement within a time frame . Who gets the RFP depends on a LOT of things, capability, record, and industrial and political relationships.
Request for Tender: A tightly targeted request to 2 or three suppliers (or alliances of suppliers by this stage) for cost to meet a VERY well defined specification for capability and time frame.
Its pretty simple and for Abbott to come out with the crap that he has is way OT jump the shark ludicrous.
And the Wyatt Roy stuff?? Fwark. Roy will likely be around a lot longer than Abbott and if he is willing to go out on a limb and show as rational good on him. Wont hurt him in his seat i’d think.
Ctar
Greens giving a Labor Party Trade Minister credit for principle was worth noting.
YOu may not like it so you can scroll on
From the ABC:
[Unemployment has risen to 6.4 per cent, with 12,000 roles lost in January]
Poor Joe Hockey, still suffering from the legacy of Labor’s economic management. This can’t possibly be his fault – he is only Treasurer. After all, he has barely been in charge for two years. Of course, if there is good news, I’m sure he’ll take the credit.
TPOF
[Also, I can’t get over the role of the AFP in this ]
Yep. The question of why they were not just snavelled on arrival in Australia rather than dobbed into Indonesian Police has never been explained.
I hope that some AFP coppers are not sleeping well at the moment.
The ABS Stats are here. The last thing Joe would want is for people to miss them.
http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6202.0
Employment is steady, but seasonaly adjusted the result is a big drop in employment and rise in unemployment. Normally at this time of year employers are hirign school and uni leaves, so a flat labour market now is terrible news for the young.
Ctar
Here is where the Greens are coming from on this.
“@leerhiannon: Speaking in Senate about Trans-Pacific Partnership #TPP – an assault on Aust laws and sovereignty in the name of multi-nationals.”
gt – Ta.
CTar1@173
Sorry to be that person… but…
I just select the word or phrases in question, right-click, and select “search in Google”. The first result actually answered my question.
The unemploymetn figures are aewful. they make Abbott’s aproval rating look like good reading. There is a handy summary you can click on at the link I provided. Participation rate was steady. Unemployment was up, full time jobs down, only incresae was in part time jobs.
From the ABS summary:
[Seasonally adjusted full-time employment decreased by 28,100 persons to 8,078,000 persons while part-time employment increased by 15,900 to 3,590,700 persons in January 2015. The decrease in total employment resulted from:
■a decrease in male full-time employment, down 26,000 persons
■a decrease in female full-time employment, down 2,100 persons
■a decrease in female part-time employment, down 1,900 persons
■an increase in male part-time employment, up 17,800 persons.
Seasonally adjusted aggregate monthly hours worked increased 8.2 million hours (0.5%) in January 2015 to 1,607.6 million hours.
STATE ESTIMATES
The largest absolute decreases in seasonally adjusted employment were in New South Wales (down 14,500 persons) and Queensland (down 7,100 persons). The largest absolute increase in seasonally adjusted employment was in Western Australia, up 5,300 persons.]
Hockey really should be sacked. He is not Treasurer of Greece, though he acts like it.
TPOF
Just had a visitor call in sorry for the delay.
[One reason why Mike Baird will win the NSW election is that the black cloud that hangs over the NSW Labor Party is still obvious to the voters and they will not want to reward it with votes.]
I think Labor will come closer but not win.
Foley will gain votes and maybe get a few more seats but Baird will win.
I am with you re the Right in NSW everything for them is factional power and selecting Foley from the left as leader may change the way some people vote.
I am in the seat of East Hills at the state level and the candidate is Cameron Murphy son of Lionel Murphy.
I also ran for the State Conference position of State Secretary against the delightful and now before ICAC Eric Roozendaal and got 42.8%. It was a Faulkner strategy and gave the Right a shock.
I hope that the libs list the Harmers contribution under their political domations. Because that is what it is.
Tom.
I’m no Laborite and I had my reservations about Shorten initially, but at this point, I think he’s proved his worthiness, if at least as LOTO.
I doubt though that this would affect the ballot somewhat, and even if they were to hold another ballot to correct this, I think Shorten has the confidence of the party and will probably be the sole candidate.
In the seat projections I imagine that the 5 others are Bandt, McGowan, Wilkie, Katter and Palmer. Given the seismic drop in PUP polling, and the fact that he scrapped through during the last election. I imagine it is pretty safe to say that the LNP will prob regard the seat, even with their current polling woes.
MTBW@184
I did some quick calculations yesterday, and I think based on the polling the Coalition might have a chance of having control of the upper house based on their results in 2011.
imacca
On the submarines thing – I saw a film clip on ABC yesterday of Acting Chief of DMO, Harry Dunstall (Jason’s older brother), being questioned about the purchase process.
I remember him from work with a full head of blond hair and a lot slimmer in the face. Now it seems shaven head at not so slim!
Mortlock@187
Maybe he might jump to the Senate. It not only increases his chances, but will also have more say compared to a HoR with majority by one party.
Raaraa
Mike Baird is not disliked but I wonder how many electors will change their vote because of Abbott?
This will be good. Gov presser soon on the unemployment figures. Prepare to be told up is down and besides it is all Labor’s fault.
MTBW
[the candidate is Cameron Murphy son of Lionel Murphy.]
Ah … There’s some history involved there!
MTBW @ 184
Thanks for the response. I’m just an ordinary observer, but I agree with your assessment. Baird will take a lot of collateral damage but will get through.
I’m also in agreement with Raaraa @ 186
I don’t like Shorten but I think he is doing a first class job as LOTO, subject to Labor producing effective policies before the election. And although I like Albanese more I don’t think he would be as good as Shorten in the job.
LU
Snap on the unemployment figures. Your link to Gerard Minack is very relevant. At this point Hockey is not only being criticised by political opponents. Serious analysts, many of whom work for the big end of town, are pointing out that the economic management is terrible.
ABC has the unemployment story up now. A 12 year high.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-12/unemployment-data-january-abs-jobs/6088070
The last time unemployment was this high, Peter Costello was Treasurer. Unemployment will always be higher under a Liberal government.
We just took on some more graduates at work. It was a stretch but I am glad we did it. If you have a job, buy a copy of The Big Issue. Too many people are selling it.
How many job losses does it take to stop the unemployment crisis? Just two – Tony Abbott and Joe Hockey.
Must be off, have a good day all.
MTBW@191
Fair question. I think it lies in those who can’t differentiate between state and federal politcs, and those who knowingly blame the state government for federal issues. If Baird couldn’t prove himself well enough to be different from Abbott….
Abetz doing panic
@Raaraa – a good point; yes, building up his senate numbers will give him more power (also if he lost his lower house seat, could he still be leader of PUP, or would that pass on to the Brick with Eyes). I just wonder how much more of a financial hit his capacious wallet can take in terms of funding election campaigns (he threw loads of money at the recent Vic and Queensland, for no success). PUP has no grass roots support, so it has to be a massive drain on his finances. I guess he might have one last hurrah at the next fed election and then might have to ‘retire’ from politics.
CTar1
Plenty of it isn’t there. Don’t know how he will go but East Hills had always been a Labor seat until the last election.
The demographics are changing around here property prices are high and the seat borders on the Georges River.
Hear nothing from the Libs of any relevance and have never seen the member.
YES !!!!! Within 2 sentence it’s Fed Labor’s fault Mining Tax . Victorian State Labor’s fault. Trifecta with Sth Australia’s state gov’s fault.
Beautifully rounded off by claiming job creation is 3 times higher now than it was under Labor. EricA outdid himself.