BludgerTrack: 56.1-43.9 to Labor

This week’s poll aggregate records the government in an ongoing downward spiral in the days before Monday’s spill motion.

The flurry of pre-spill polling leaves BludgerTrack engorged with new data, offering a high-resolution picture of how things looked immediately before Monday’s Liberal party room meeting. The result isn’t quite matching Julia Gillard at her worst, but it comes awfully close – particularly on the seat projection, since the swing has bitten deepest in the especially sensitive state of Queensland. There has been a straight one-point shift from the Coalition to Labor on the primary vote to add to the two-point shift recorded last week, with other parties remaining stable. Labor is up four on the seat projection since last week, courtesy of gains in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and South Australia.

The leadership ratings are if anything even more remarkable, with new numbers added this week from Newspoll and Essential Research. The collapse in Tony Abbott’s personal rating from an already low base is particularly something to see. It moves more sharply this week than preferred prime minister, since it had only one data point to react to last time rather than two, last fortnight’s Galaxy poll having provided on the latter. The y-axis on the net approval chart formerly ran from plus to minus 40%, but I’ve had to widen it to accommodate the depths presently being plumbed by Abbott. Bill Shorten’s rating softens a little, thanks to a somewhat off-trend result this week from Essential. Full results, as always, are on the sidebar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,925 comments on “BludgerTrack: 56.1-43.9 to Labor”

Comments Page 3 of 59
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  1. deb

    [and the Chinese are interested in some kind of naval bases in the Med]

    Makes as much sense as us seeking a submarine base in the West Indies.

  2. So, Abbott calls Credlin ‘boss’ and she swears at him in front of third parties.

    Then Abbott tells Wyatt Roy he is effin delusional about any effin broken promises, and to effin eff off.

    So Wyatt goes home and stomps the strawberries to jam telling them they effin deserve every effin thing they effin have coming to them.

    Meanwhile during QT Abbott wonders aloud whether Labor would use the services of a dead parrot North Korean dictator to build Australia’s submarines.

    Monty Python you are redundant.

  5. [Meanwhile during QT Abbott wonders aloud whether Labor would use the services of a dead parrot North Korean dictator to build Australia’s submarines.

    Monty Python you are redundant.]

    Yep. And nothing instils trust like being a glib-as-fark smartarse.

  6. Senator Macdonald getting very stroppy with the acting deputy president (whom I can’t identify and who seems very inexperienced) for telling him to speak through the chair when Macdonald claimed he was doing just that. This was right after a spray directed at the the interjecting Greens when he claimed there is no “accepted” evidence for man-made climate change.

  7. Abbott’s comments about the Human Rights Commission demonstrate he is no longer attempting to speak with the Australian public but is now focused on speaking to his own party and base.

  8. triton

    [… a spray directed at the the interjecting Greens when he claimed there is no “accepted” evidence for man-made climate change.]

    And people actually elect these morons …

  12. “@vincentwight: #ChildrenInDetentionReport – Triggs “In the months following the Election children were being held in higher numbers and not being released””

  13. ltep, Whish-Wilson might be in the chair now, but I don’t think it was him at the time. I’ve seen Whish-Wilson in the chair before and he’s been reasonably competent. This guy kept asking the clerk what to do. I guess it’ll be in Hansard tomorrow.

  16. triton

    [“In the months following the Election children were being held in higher numbers and not being released””]

    There’s ‘draft’ Hansard (computer generated text with all its faults from voice recording) on line available if you hunt for it.

  19. Rr

    [In her speech Ms Carling-Jenkins thanked Pastor Danny Nalliah, who previously claimed the Black Saturday bushfires were connected to abortion laws in Victoria]

    J. C. – They’re out there and people vote for them!

  20. The quickest way to find texts for speeches – they’re often up by the end of the day – is to go to

    http://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/search/search.w3p

    – click on “Guided Search’ in the tabs above ‘search’ —

    http://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/guide/guide.w3p

    Go to ‘Speech by a Senator or Member’ under the ‘Guided Search’ heading —

    http://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/guide/speech.w3p

    Choose your member (in this case, I’ve gone with Abbott, to make it quicker —) and enter the date range and type of response you want (e.g. speeches, answers to questions).

    (Avoid using the wildcard thing, it’s useless; the text search is good when you’re trying to find out what a particular member has said on a subject)

    In this case, I used the 11/2 to 12/2 as my date range, and got everything up until the end of QT yesterday —

    http://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/search/summary/summary.w3p;query=Dataset%3Ahansardr,hansards,hansardr80,hansards80%20((SpeakerId%3AEZ5)%20%7C%20(QuestionerId_Phrase%3AEZ5)%20%7C%20(ResponderId_Phrase%3AEZ5))%20Date%3A11%2F02%2F2015%20%3E%3E%2012%2F02%2F2015;resCount=Default

  21. I remember saying to someone at the time the terror alert was lifted and again when the Sydney siege came about that if Abbott got zero bounce out of those matters, he was toast.

    In saying that, I’m not suggesting the terror level was lifted for anything other than appropriate means, rather that the traditional thinking is conservatives get a lift in support out of the whole terrorist angle, and despite these things Abbott still went backwards. I really think the lack of any lift in support for him out of those events is what scared the horses.

  23. Sir Mad Cyril@32

    Fascinating tidbits from Niki Savva’s article today

    On Sunday, May 25, last year Queensland backbencher Wyatt Roy was part of a group of about 30 marginal seat-holders invited to dine privately with the Prime Minister in the cabinet anteroom. Abbott’s practice at these dinners is to go around the room, asking each member to say their piece.

    Roy, trying to be helpful, stood at the table to tell the Prime Minister that broken promises were the fundamental cause of the government’s problems. It might be a good idea, Roy suggested, to apologise to people a la Peter Beattie and move on.

    Abbott was furious. He rounded on Roy, yelled at him, then directed his remarks to all of them that there were no effing broken promises and no one should concede there had been. The incident stuck in the mind of MPs, first because of Roy’s bravery in broaching it, then because of the Prime Minister’s use of the F-bomb.


    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/columnists/down-periscope-abbott-torpedoes-himself/story-fnahw9xv-1227216468664

    Whatever happened to “let’s discuss these issues in the party room?”

  24. Thanks, CTar1 and zoomster. I’ve had little success in the past figuring out how to use the APH search, but now that I have instructions I’ll give it another go!

  26. Pastor Danny Nalliah, who previously claimed the Black Saturday bushfires were connected to abortion laws in Victoria

    These so-called ‘Christians’ believe in a capricious, vengeful, vindicative diety who leaves Zeus and Moloch for dead.

  27. [Thanks RA, we’ll go with that – it fits with the long thing on top of his head as the PH flagpole
    ]
    Of which the PH flag pole symbolises “Good Government”

  29. [These so-called ‘Christians’ believe in a capricious, vengeful, vindicative diety who leaves Zeus and Moloch for dead.]

    Cthulhu? 🙂

  33. Burgey @ 121

    [I remember saying to someone at the time the terror alert was lifted and again when the Sydney siege came about that if Abbott got zero bounce out of those matters, he was toast.]

    Abbott is trading on the theory that Liberals will always be regarded as better for defending our nation. The problem for him is that the public have to accept that the Government is remotely competent first.

    Abbott has been judged by many, including his own side as incompetent. This more than negates the residual bias toward Liberals being better for security. The submarine debacle would be worrying a lot of people about what concept this government has about defence as well.

    As for the idea that the anti-terrorist raid could have organised by the Government as a distraction, can you imagine anyone other than Scott Morrison having the competence to try that and not screw up?

  34. MTBW @ 130

    [Apologies if already posted but I am not a fan of the NSW Right and never was.]

    There aren’t many here. I’m not either. But this report seems to me to be an attempt to kickstart that old journalistic fallback of Labor factional battles and leadersh1t speculation.

    Meanwhile, ABC 24 has just flashed up that unemployment has risen to 6.4%.

  36. [ “@vanOnselenP: New system in place, the Prime Minister only doing interviews in his office now. Obviously the PMO feels he needs home court advantage…” ]

    …a simkin ‘Brain Wave’ ?

  37. http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Latestproducts/6202.0Media%20Release1Jan%202015
    [MEDIA RELEASE
    12 February 2015
    Embargoed: 11.30 am (Canberra time)
    16/2015

    Australia’s unemployment rate increased to 6.4 per cent in January 2015

    Australia’s estimated seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for January 2015 was 6.4 per cent, compared with 6.1 per cent for December 2014. In trend terms, the unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.3 per cent, as announced by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) today.

    The seasonally adjusted labour force participation rate remained at 64.8 per cent in January 2015.

    The ABS reported the number of people employed decreased by 12,200 to 11,668,700 in January 2015 (seasonally adjusted). The decrease in employment was driven by decreased full-time employment for both males (down 26,000) and females (down 2,100). The decrease in full-time employment was partly offset by an increase in male part-time employment, up 17,800.

    The ABS seasonally adjusted aggregate monthly hours worked series increased in January 2015, up 8.2 million hours (0.5 per cent) to 1,607.6 million hours.

    The seasonally adjusted number of people unemployed increased by 34,500 to 795,200 in January 2015, the ABS reported.

    Further details on the movement in the unemployment rate and other key estimates are in the January 2015 issue of Labour Force, Australia (cat. no. 6202.0), as well as the upcoming January 2015 issue of Labour Force, Australia, Detailed (cat. no. 6291.0.55.001) due for release next week on February 19. These publications are available for free download (after release) from the ABS website – http://www.abs.gov.au.]

  38. [These so-called ‘Christians’ believe in a capricious, vengeful, vindicative diety who leaves Zeus and Moloch for dead.]

    Well said Steve777.

    All hail Cthulhu!

  40. TPOF

    I may get screamed at for this but I think Shorten carries too much baggage for getting rid of Rudd then getting rid of Gillard and then replacing her with Rudd.

    I think that people don’t forget these things much as the Party would like them to.

    I didn’t have a vote in the Albo/Shorten contest but I would have voted Albo.

    We have a couple of candidates who could make great leaders Dreyfus is one of them.

    Anyone but Abbott won’t do it for me I would like someone of more substance in the position and we do have them in the ALP.

  41. My best advice when using the aph search is to leave the wildcard option blank. I have no idea why it’s there but as soon as you enter anything you’re doomed.

  42. [http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/sydney-terror-plot-suspect-used-false-documents-to-enter-country/story-e6frg6nf-1227216822493]

    check out the shitsucking grin on Abbott. Obviously dismayed by the prospect of a terror attack

  43. [http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/sydney-terror-plot-suspect-used-false-documents-to-enter-country/story-e6frg6nf-1227216822493]

    sorry

  46. Dastyari refusing to answer questions about something that looks very dodgy isn’t helping his cause. You don’t get the benefit of the doubt when you do that.

  48. @political_alert: Shadow Employment Minister @BOConnorMP will hold a doorstop on the ABS labour force figures, 12.15pm, Parliament House #auspol

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