BludgerTrack: 56.1-43.9 to Labor

This week’s poll aggregate records the government in an ongoing downward spiral in the days before Monday’s spill motion.

The flurry of pre-spill polling leaves BludgerTrack engorged with new data, offering a high-resolution picture of how things looked immediately before Monday’s Liberal party room meeting. The result isn’t quite matching Julia Gillard at her worst, but it comes awfully close – particularly on the seat projection, since the swing has bitten deepest in the especially sensitive state of Queensland. There has been a straight one-point shift from the Coalition to Labor on the primary vote to add to the two-point shift recorded last week, with other parties remaining stable. Labor is up four on the seat projection since last week, courtesy of gains in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and South Australia.

The leadership ratings are if anything even more remarkable, with new numbers added this week from Newspoll and Essential Research. The collapse in Tony Abbott’s personal rating from an already low base is particularly something to see. It moves more sharply this week than preferred prime minister, since it had only one data point to react to last time rather than two, last fortnight’s Galaxy poll having provided on the latter. The y-axis on the net approval chart formerly ran from plus to minus 40%, but I’ve had to widen it to accommodate the depths presently being plumbed by Abbott. Bill Shorten’s rating softens a little, thanks to a somewhat off-trend result this week from Essential. Full results, as always, are on the sidebar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,925 comments on “BludgerTrack: 56.1-43.9 to Labor”

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  5. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    The Royal Commission rightfully gets stuck into the catholic church and its pin-up boy George Pell.

    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/feb/11/catholic-church-fought-sex-abuse-victims-claims-to-deter-others-inquiry-finds

    And it’s doing a good job on the Melbourne Jewish outfit too.

    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/feb/11/rabbi-yosef-feldman-resigns-as-director-of-yeshivah-centre

    For God’s sake! This will get Abbot, Brandis, etc salivating.

    http://smh.com.au/nsw/bill-shortens-leadership-ballot-under-scrutiny-after-sam-dastyaris-office-redirected-papers-20150211-13bvlo.html

    Lenore Taylor – Abbott’s submarine remarks take his “good” government down to new depths. She has plenty to say about the budget too.

    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/feb/11/tony-abbott-submarines-take-good-government-down-to-the-depths

    Submarine Tony, the new “Pig Iron Bob”.

    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/the-new-pig-iron-bob-submarine-tony,7360

    This is some report card on Abbott from a US think tank!

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/us-think-tank-asks-is-tony-abbott-the-most-incompetent-leader-of-any-industrialised-democracy-20150211-13cda6.html

    Hockey fights back – at Abbott. And he has a lash at this own department!

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/support-budget-cuts-or-australia-will-never-get-back-to-surplus-joe-hockey-20150211-13c4b8.html

    Why the Coalition must change from fear to hope.

    http://thenewdaily.com.au/money/2015/02/11/coalition-must-shift-fear-hope/

    Michelle Grattan says Hockey is on the ropes and the spectre of Malcolm Turnbull hovers over him.

    https://theconversation.com/hockey-on-the-ropes-i-am-doing-the-heavy-lifting-for-my-country-37473

    Australia’s most predatory credit cards revealed.

    http://thenewdaily.com.au/money/2015/02/11/australias-worst-credit-cards/

  6. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    The Royal Commission rightfully gets stuck into the catholic church and its pin-up boy George Pell.

    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/feb/11/catholic-church-fought-sex-abuse-victims-claims-to-deter-others-inquiry-finds

    And it’s doing a good job on the Melbourne Jewish outfit too.

    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/feb/11/rabbi-yosef-feldman-resigns-as-director-of-yeshivah-centre

    For God’s sake! This will get Abbot, Brandis, etc salivating.

    http://smh.com.au/nsw/bill-shortens-leadership-ballot-under-scrutiny-after-sam-dastyaris-office-redirected-papers-20150211-13bvlo.html

    Lenore Taylor – Abbott’s submarine remarks take his “good” government down to new depths. She has plenty to say about the budget too.

    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/feb/11/tony-abbott-submarines-take-good-government-down-to-the-depths

    Submarine Tony, the new “Pig Iron Bob”.

    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/the-new-pig-iron-bob-submarine-tony,7360

    This is some report card on Abbott from a US think tank!

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/us-think-tank-asks-is-tony-abbott-the-most-incompetent-leader-of-any-industrialised-democracy-20150211-13cda6.html

    Hockey fights back – at Abbott. And he has a lash at this own department!

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/support-budget-cuts-or-australia-will-never-get-back-to-surplus-joe-hockey-20150211-13c4b8.html

    Why the Coalition must change from fear to hope.

    http://thenewdaily.com.au/money/2015/02/11/coalition-must-shift-fear-hope/

    Michelle Grattan says Hockey is on the ropes and the spectre of Malcolm Turnbull hovers over him.

    https://theconversation.com/hockey-on-the-ropes-i-am-doing-the-heavy-lifting-for-my-country-37473

    Australia’s most predatory credit cards revealed.

    http://thenewdaily.com.au/money/2015/02/11/australias-worst-credit-cards/

  7. This looks good, but no use counting your chicken too cheerfully just yet. The Coalition will try to make the Opposition the topic and throw some dirt (They just started in the SMH with a headline on irregularities of last year’s leadership ballot).

    Combined with some fear-mongering and a few morsels thrown towards groups susceptible to such bribes (i.e., Australians), they’ll likely manage to pare this back to a contest for the election next year.

    And that doesn’t account for some Labour own goals along the way (prone to those as they are).

  8. Section 2 . . .

    Warwick Smith looks at Hockey’s “ah ha” moment.

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/feb/11/a-sustainable-budget-surplus-is-beyond-the-governments-control-as-joe-hockey-has-come-to-realise

    The rise and fall of yesterday’s man. Tony Abbott.

    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/the-rise-and-fall-of-tony-abbott,7352

    The thirty worst things the Liberals did yesterday.

    http://www.ellistabletalk.com/2015/02/12/the-thirty-worst-things-the-liberals-did-yesterday-194/

    An audit declares that the DFAT travel advisories are for to wordy to be effective.

    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/public-service/dfat-audit-travel-advisories-too-wordy-smartraveller-registration-low-20150211-13bs42.html

    “View from the Street” is back. This time he looks at the classy walk out by Coalition MPs, Eurovision and submarines.

    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/view-from-the-street/view-from-the-street-classy-mps-walk-out-on-discussion-of-indigenous-health-20150211-13c52j.html

    As the facts of the police shooting of the Sydney girl with a knife come out it is looking sadder and sadder for all concerned.

    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/father-struggling-after-daughter-courtney-topic-shot-dead-at-hungry-jacks-20150211-13bq7r.html

    The Costa Concordia captain DID go down with his ship. Eventually!

    http://canberratimes.com.au/world/costa-concordia-captain-francesco-schettino-guilty-of-manslaughter-20150211-13cdno.html

    So it’s only the ugliness of wind farms that is left to fight with?

    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/feb/11/wind-farm-study-finds-no-direct-evidence-they-affect-health

    Mark Latham on the rise of the “back bench banshee”.

    http://www.afr.com/p/opinion/rise_of_the_banshee_backbencher_LLtXqHYpRrzkzRTGGImC0O

    Bob Carr calls for a better explanation from the AFP on its role with the Bali nine. He has no criticism of the Australian government.

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/bob-carr-calls-on-afp-to-explain-themselves-over-bali-nine-20150211-13c3ax.html

  9. Section 3 . . .

    Privacy should prevail unless there is strong evidence to pry into our metadata writes a lawyer from Sydney.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/privacy-should-prevail-unless-theres-strong-evidence-to-pry-into-our-metadata-20150211-13ag9l.html
    Is this an electricity price time bomb?
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/regulators-next-power-failure-will-cost-us-dearly-20150211-13c2m8.html
    Why the left loves Turnbull.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/turnbull-why-the-left-is-so-in-love-with-him-20150211-13bd9t.html
    The SMH editorialises that surely it’s time to attack corporate tax avoidance.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-editorial/surely-it-is-time-to-confront-corporate-tax-avoidance-20150211-13bpcq.html
    The CBA doesn’t think much of the leadership we are getting.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/commonwealth-banks-ian-narev-slaps-canberra-over-confidence-20150211-13blxr.html
    Caroline Wilson says it’s time for the AFL to take a stand on Essendon.
    http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/essendons-refusal-to-play-is-making-a-mockery-of-the-preseason-competition-20150211-13c7lt.html
    One shouldn’t wish harm on people but this guy really tests the principle!
    http://www.theguardian.com/music/2015/feb/11/justin-bieber-ankle-injury-community-service
    Bill Leak uses the new phrase from the political lexicon.

    David Pope has Abbott rejoicing over Australia getting into the Eurovision song contest.

    David Rowe very effectively uses the “Closing the Gap” report to look at the state of this government.

  11. this US think tank pillorying of Tony Abbott is now making the local press.

    Worth a look at the original published post his “near death experience”

    [ Abbott’s leadership in 2014 had been atrocious – he often looked confused or outright deceitful when discussing policy questions. His treasurer, Joe Hockey, seemed staggeringly unconcerned about the major challenges facing Australia’s economy as China’s economy cools and the Australian real estate market returns to earth.]

    http://blogs.cfr.org/asia/2015/02/10/tony-abbott-lives-for-another-day-now-what/

  12. Another cracking set of yarns BK for reading on my morning commute.

    Rabbi Feldman is reported in today’s Age that his comments and responses were taking out of context.

    What a surprise. Yes ignoramuses like you would say that.

    He is also calling in the lawyers.

    What a grub.

  13. Will someone please stop Hockey getting away with saying ‘The Labor controlled Senate’ . Keeps using this as a excuse – he needs to take on some responsibility – Gillard had to negotiate with both the House of Reps and the Senate.

    This we inherited it from Labor is weak and an excuse for doing nothing

  14. The question I would like answered is: If the PM adjusted the trut to ensure one Senator’s vote, how many “truth adjustments” did he make to other MPs?

  15. Our award-winning PM:

    US think tank asks ‘Is Tony Abbott the most incompetent leader of any industrialised democracy?’

    “..a country that for decades has punched above its weight on nearly every international issue surely can do much better for a prime minister than Tony Abbott.”

  17. Morning everyone

    With all the political news about this morning, the top story online is the Leadership ballot of the Labor party. Really!

  20. That US think tank article describing Tony Abbott as the most incompetent current leader of any industrialised country is at the Council for Foreign Relations. They are quite serious.
    http://blogs.cfr.org/asia/2015/02/05/tony-abbott-has-to-go/

    It is not only the CFRs view. In the last year I did some work in New Zealand, where Australian politics is closely reported. People there were scathing of Abbott, rating him a dinosaur and a buffoon. Even conservatives felt he compared very poorly to NZ conservative PM John Keys. Keys was much more moderate, but much more effective at getting things done. They were also astounded at how quickly the Australian economy had tanked under Abbott.

  21. [ Mark Latham on the rise of the “back bench banshee”.

    http://www.afr.com/p/opinion/rise_of_the_banshee_backbencher_LLtXqHYpRrzkzRTGGImC0O ]

    Another interpretation is that the tory backbench are hearing what voters really think of abbott and his government and the backbenchers know what this means for their jobs.

    Its a bonus for labor they didn’t give abbott the boot earlier this week. The story of him being given about another 6 months to turn things around, ie until after the budget sounds about right to me – unless/until he stuffs very badly before then…..

    The encouraging thing is abbott’s energy and that of his Government is going into attacking Labor – not governing better and more fairly.

    Kerry Packer said you only get one opportunity like Alan Bond….Shorten has his.

    Use it Bill – for all of our sakes.

  22. Only the Bull Ant Libs still supporting the LNP.

    These are the Liberal voters, who, when staked out over a bull ant nest, will not change their vote, even when threatened with a Liberal application of honey.

  23. Trog

    I am not familiar with Liberal faction initiation rituals but the details do not surprise me.

    Victoria

    The internal workings of the Labor party remind me of Otto von Bismarcks description of making legislation. Some people get so used to the corruption they forget that is what it is. I still support the principles, but I am glad I am not a member.

    Have a good day all. A prize for whoever detects the first Abbott lie. Congratulations Premier to be Paluszczuk.

  24. I’m concerned at reporting of the “Death Cult arrest” story.

    I haven’t heard police say much more than the two bought a machete and that there was a video found.

    This has been morphed into a “Death Cult Plot” incorporating “Terrorism in our midst”, spiced up with (first) speculation and (now) it seems certainty that someone was going to be beheaded yesterday.

    It seems reasonable to assume that something nasty was afoot, but reporting this as a definite beheading plot with organized ISIS links is going too far. I though the whole point of the story was that there were not any ISIS links.

  25. Analysis of the High Court decision on refugees yesterday

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-12/bradley-high-court-refugee-ruling-the-lucky-exception/6086612

    Courts put the boot into government all the time but this is pretty emphatic [at (40)]:

    [Second, the Minister should not be given a further opportunity to identify some reason for not granting the plaintiff the visa which is sought]

    That is the HC fearing the Govt will fudge some excuse to knock this poor bloke back again.

  27. Abbott and Brandis have just visited AFP HQ for a clearly staged media performance regarding yesterday’s “death cult” arrests. I wonder if the AFP chief was handed his talking points by the PMO.

  29. [The collapse in Tony Abbott’s personal rating from an already low base is particularly something to see, and moves more sharply this week than preferred prime minister since it had only one data point to react to rather than two, since Galaxy provided the latter. The y-axis on the net approval chart formerly ran from plus to minus 40%, but I’ve had to widen it to accommodate the depths presently being plumbed by Abbott. ]

    How does Abbott come back from this? It’s not going to happen.

  30. Tania Plibersek is on Sky News showing how to be perfectly groomed and presented.
    And she’s been talking about submarines and the Indonesian death penalties.

  31. Encouraging Bludger Track – more encouraging is the knowledge that since the spill, the Coalition’s predicament has gotten worse. 😀

  32. Fascinating tidbits from Niki Savva’s article today

    [
    On Sunday, May 25, last year Queensland backbencher Wyatt Roy was part of a group of about 30 marginal seat-holders invited to dine privately with the Prime Minister in the cabinet anteroom. Abbott’s practice at these dinners is to go around the room, asking each member to say their piece.

    Roy, trying to be helpful, stood at the table to tell the Prime Minister that broken promises were the fundamental cause of the government’s problems. It might be a good idea, Roy suggested, to apologise to people a la Peter Beattie and move on.

    Abbott was furious. He rounded on Roy, yelled at him, then directed his remarks to all of them that there were no effing broken promises and no one should concede there had been. The incident stuck in the mind of MPs, first because of Roy’s bravery in broaching it, then because of the Prime Minister’s use of the F-bomb.
    ]

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/columnists/down-periscope-abbott-torpedoes-himself/story-fnahw9xv-1227216468664

  35. BK@30

    Tania Plibersek is on Sky News showing how to be perfectly groomed and presented.
    And she’s been talking about submarines and the Indonesian death penalties.

    Let’s be honest BK. Tanya doesn’t need to talk. She wins just by turning up. :devil:

  37. [ Abbott was furious. He rounded on Roy, yelled at him, then directed his remarks to all of them that there were no effing broken promises and no one should concede there had been. ]

    Ahh. Warms the cockles of my heart 🙂

  40. [Dutton says he’s been advised one of the suspects might have flown to Australia with false documentation in 2009.]

    Yup, it’s the boat people and it’s all Labor’s fault.

  41. [How does Abbott come back from this? It’s not going to happen.]

    Well I think it’s fair to say the polling numbers will improve at some stage slightly. This will be heralded by the media as a comeback. There are only problems on the Abbott Government’s horizon though.

  42. Sir Mad Cyril@32

    Fascinating tidbits from Niki Savva’s article today:

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/columnists/down-periscope-abbott-torpedoes-himself/story-fnahw9xv-1227216468664

    Thanks sir mad cyril, great article, good to see those sentiments in the GG.

    However I can’t work out what has happened to Abbot in the cartoon above the article. He looks to me like he is in some sort of plastic bag which has bits of twigs stuck on it.

    Can anyone enlighten me? Something to do with the submarines maybe?

  43. I can’t load Savva’s article in the GG linked by Sir mad Cyril at #32 but looking at this :
    [On Sunday, May 25, last year ….Abbott was furious. He rounded on Roy, yelled at him, then directed his remarks to all of them that there were no effing broken promises and no one should concede there had been The incident stuck in the mind of MPs..]
    and wondered why it’s only becoming newsworthy and being reported a mere 9 plus months later.

  45. fredex@43

    I can’t load Savva’s article in the GG linked by Sir mad Cyril at #32 .

    Try putting the part of the URL with dashes in into google:

    down-periscope-abbott-torpedoes-himself

    It works with all the GG stories.

  46. Good Morning

    Sir Mad

    hank you for that. It gives one reason for a spill. I am sure the bully story lost no time in travelling around the place.

    Savva really has the knives out for Abbott that is for sure and she is not being distracted by this Turnbull as treasurer stuff.

    I am no fan but I certainly think Savva knows incompetence when she sees it.

  47. [there were no effing broken promises and no one should concede there had been ]

    Proof that Abbott believes his own lies and lives alone in Abbott-world.

  48. The timing and circumstances of this “terrorist arrest” are just too convenient. It comes only days after Abbott’s party room showdown, disastrous opinion polls and revelations of open warfare at the top of the NSW police.

    Abbott and Murdoch desperately needed some noisy diversion.

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