The flurry of pre-spill polling leaves BludgerTrack engorged with new data, offering a high-resolution picture of how things looked immediately before Monday’s Liberal party room meeting. The result isn’t quite matching Julia Gillard at her worst, but it comes awfully close – particularly on the seat projection, since the swing has bitten deepest in the especially sensitive state of Queensland. There has been a straight one-point shift from the Coalition to Labor on the primary vote to add to the two-point shift recorded last week, with other parties remaining stable. Labor is up four on the seat projection since last week, courtesy of gains in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and South Australia.
The leadership ratings are if anything even more remarkable, with new numbers added this week from Newspoll and Essential Research. The collapse in Tony Abbott’s personal rating from an already low base is particularly something to see. It moves more sharply this week than preferred prime minister, since it had only one data point to react to last time rather than two, last fortnight’s Galaxy poll having provided on the latter. The y-axis on the net approval chart formerly ran from plus to minus 40%, but I’ve had to widen it to accommodate the depths presently being plumbed by Abbott. Bill Shorten’s rating softens a little, thanks to a somewhat off-trend result this week from Essential. Full results, as always, are on the sidebar.
Sir Mad Cyril@50
Ta. Sometimes cartoonists are too clever by half. Or maybe only part of the original cartoon is shown.
fredex:
Thanks for the link to Elder’s post. Those coalition MPs running away from the truth is actually the story, as Elder points out, not OMG Shorten!
[Tony Abbott has been leader of the Liberal Party for almost five years. Everyone, friend and foe, knows what he’s like. Nikolic, Taylor, O’Dowd and Price have spent their entire parliamentary careers with Abbott as leader. He doesn’t do bipartisanship at big occasions or small and was not entitled to be taken at his word here.
All of those people voted for the cuts. All of them should be held to account. None of them have any right to be surprised that the leader of the alternative government might call them on it.
Apart from O’Dowd and Cobb, all those Liberals met on Monday and insisted that the Prime Minister and his staff listen to them more. As soon as someone said something they didn’t want to hear, they fled.]
@srpeatling: Good morning! Clive has a new car – a Tesla no less “Politics Live: February 12, 2015” http://t.co/6rmwHTOPnN via @smh
@Colvinius: Bob Carr calls on AFP to explain themselves over Bali nine http://t.co/vSRYpK2LpO via @smh
Dave 26,,,re Greece and China
___________________Interesting…I read too that China sees Greece as a point of entry into Europe for Chinese diplomacy
The Greek economy whioch is doing well is small beers to China and could be given much help…and the Chinese are interested in some kind of naval bases in the Med…after all great powers have special interests,and why should the western powers treat the Med as their “lake”…and the Russians have a bases or their ships in Syria at Latakia,hence Russia support for Assad
Victoria.
I am not surprised the story about Labor is at the top of the pile. The right are desperate to have an they are all the same moment.
Making Labor appear corrupt and liable to leadership change fits the bill nicely.
“@vanOnselenP: New system in place, the Prime Minister only doing interviews in his office now. Obviously the PMO feels he needs home court advantage…”
“@vanOnselenP: …and PM only doing pre-records now. PMO worried the PM will fluff live interviews. It’s all very inspiring.”
I find it scary that Roy, who has been alive roughly as long as Abbot has been in Parliament, seems to have significantly better political judgement (and a pretty decent amount of courage too – even if it was the courage that comes from inexperience).
On the cartoon, it seems to be suggesting that ABbott himself is the Torpedo breaking down what appears to be a wooden, underwater, parliamnet house?
@dailebree: Council has approved Toowoomba to build the largest solar farm in Australia. TOOWOOMBA. http://t.co/ktNqSJtvAK http://t.co/UTUqe6MlR5
On Monday (or was it Sunday?), someone tweeted that once the Liberal leadership had been settled, either temporarily or otherwise, the press gallery chatter would be about Labor’s leadership. In particular, that the new rules served as a barrier to Caucus removing an unpopular or incompetent leader.
I wish I could remember who it was, but in any case, how prescient given today’s Fairfax headlines.
Also from Savva’s article
[As they discussed likely solutions, Smith offered to set aside his business interests and begin work in the PMO. He wanted to help. Nothing came of it. Before this week’s ballot, Abbott’s chief of staff Peta Credlin joined trusted ministers lobbying to shore up his votes. MPs were told it had been noted who had not been active or vocal enough in their support, and a list was being kept. MPs were assured the spill motion would garner 16 or 18 votes.
The Daily Telegraph splash on Tuesday, saying it had been given a list of six ministers who had betrayed the Prime Minister, reignited tensions.
Fairly or not, MPs blame Credlin for briefing against them. Even if it is not true, the fact they believe it to be true is proof of an irretrievable breakdown of trust between Abbott’s colleagues and his office.
]
So the implication I’d that the DTS list came from Credlin.
As far as LNP politicians go, I don’t mind Roy.
Greens presser
guytaur@57
So he goes for even more control.
Dumb – he is pouring blood into the water.
When will the Press Gallery collar him on it ?
Don’t hold your breath.
Credit to PVO though.
Canberra Times doesn’t care about the ALP story…
Senator Milne
[This institutionalised child abuse]
Dave, from the sublime to the ridiculous !Guytaur, that is great news re solar. Didn’t take long for good things to happen once labor was back in
Did anyone seriously think that a doofus like Abbott would make better decisions under extreme pressure than the total hash of things he made when he was sailing?
“@ABCNews24: Christine Milne: The report recommends a Royal Commission and we totally agree. #auspol #childrenindetention”
Over at the Guardian they report that Abbotts interview with Neil Mitchell was recorded the PMs office, armchair to armchair, and filmed. Mitchell is said to be unhappy with the arrangement.
Seems to be a new tactic. 7.30 interviews with Abbott and Hockey were in the office rather than the studio I believe.
Someone thinks maybe it makes them look better. Maybe they reckon the subject is more comfortable in his own environment. Talks better quality rubbish.
“@srpeatling: PM attacks Human Rights Commission report as a “blatantly partisan political exercise” http://t.co/6rmwHTOPnN via @smh”
Wyatt Roy is not alone
Is Hockey really saying that PEFO was wrong because it didn’t include the $8.8bm I gave to the Reserve Bank?
[Did anyone seriously think that a doofus like Abbott would make better decisions under extreme pressure than the total hash of things he made when he was sailing?]
Obviously not, seeing as PMO is wrapping the control tighter around Abbott.
Yes that is right Haydn@71, because you know: Labor!
@GetUp: .@TonyAbbottMHR when asked if he feels ‘any guilt’ over treatment of children in detention centres: ‘None whatsoever’ http://t.co/nZAwhP4w3m
If twitter is any indication it sounds like a terrible Abbott interview on 3AW.
Of course, what the media should do when such conditions are laid down by the PMO’s office is shrug and say, “No, thanks. I’ll go and interview Bill Shorten instead.”
A few weeks of every story beginning “The Opposition Leader said..” would sort things out.
Anybody heard Hack’s interview with Clive Palmer yesterday?
http://www.abc.net.au/triplej/hack/
He’s quite the Keynesian now. Not the biggest of his fans, but all the better, I think.
Haydn@71
Yep.
PEFO are numbers produced by Treasury, they are as things were at time of production.
MYEFO are numbers which contain political assumptions, ie Joe’s numbers.
Actuals over the forward estimates look like being a lot worse than even PEFO or MYEFO, but both sides had the PEFO numbers to work with just before the election.
PEFO are the benchmark.
But Joe’s pain is going to get a lot worse.
A good point is that several of the MPs who walked out of Parly have spent their whole time with Abbott as leader. They don’t know any different and have absorbed his rotten principles.
Why didnt the coalition MPs do this country a favour and dumped Abbott on Monday. I feel that we are being assaulted by this man on a daily basis
@AusHumanRights: LIVE press conference into #HRInquiry into Children in Immigration detention – starting imminently https://t.co/OgKWrx4Uif #AusLaw
zoomster
But then their “lefty bias” would be even more obvious. 😆
[Tania Plibersek is on Sky News showing how to be perfectly groomed and presented.]
Before she became deputy, I used to regularly see Ms Plibersek at the local kebab shop getting lunch for her staff, or at the grocers with her toddler: always immaculate.
@BenDohertyCorro: Mandatory detention designed to brutalise children, harm is not an unintended consequence, doctors say: @GuardianAus http://t.co/ZSvOlABhgs
Abbott going well this morning by the sounds of it.
[
Latika Bourke @latikambourke · 24 mins 24 minutes ago
PM Abbott bristling when asked about Peta Credlin – I don’t ask you about the internal workings of your station, he says to @3AWNeilMitchell
]
[
Latika Bourke retweeted
James Jeffrey @James_Jeffrey · 29 mins 29 minutes ago
“That’s an impertinent question,” Abbott tells Neil Mitchell when asked if he’s going to change his chief of staff.
]
https://twitter.com/latikambourke
[deblonay
Posted Thursday, February 12, 2015 at 9:19 am | Permalink
Dave 26,,,re Greece and China
___________________Interesting…I read too that China sees Greece as a point of entry into Europe for Chinese diplomacy
The Greek economy whioch is doing well is small beers to China and could be given much help…and the Chinese are interested in some kind of naval bases in the Med…after all great powers have special interests,and why should the western powers treat the Med as their “lake”…and the Russians have a bases or their ships in Syria at Latakia,hence Russia support for Assad]
1. It is going to be interesting to see whether the cradle of democracy gets into bed with a murderous dictatorship which executes political prisoners, which suppresses dissent by jailing dissenters for decades, and which bullies its smaller and sometimes democratic neighbours relenetlessly.
2. It is going to be interesting to see whether the Greens think that this is yet another positive development in the wonderful trajectory of SYRIZA.
“@shanebazzi: .@GillianTriggs: much more remains to be done – 211 children remain in detention throughout Australia and 119 children on Nauru #HRinquiry”
[“That’s an impertinent question,” Abbott tells Neil Mitchell when asked if he’s going to change his chief of staff.]
I bet he didn’t say that to Rupert.
Rates Analyst@58
Thanks RA, we’ll go with that – it fits with the long thing on top of his head as the PH flagpole.
@sarahinthesen8: The blame game must end. Acting to protect children from the abuse suffered in detention must be above politics. #TheForgottenChildren
There is almost certainly disinformation happening in relation to the terrorist arrest.
The cover story is a community ‘tip-off’.
If there was a tip-off, then the most likely trajectory is that the federales remoted into the gear that was used to make the video and whatever comms the two were using.
The key is the video content.
Making a martyr video for home consumption is SOP. It brands the event and makes sure the martyr gets due credit with the folks at home.
It allows the martyr his moment of glory and triumph before he gets snuffed or jailed incommunicado for life.
Such videos extol the sacred virtues of what the martyr is just about to do.
Since two were in on it, the video alone will presumably be enough to try the two on the following allegations:
1. making terrorist preparations
2. providing resources relating to terrorism
3. conspiring to undertake a terrorist act
4. conspiring to commit a murder.
In this case the thing that intrigues me most is whether the pair were inserted into Australia with malice aforethought, or whether they were turned once here.
There is a related concern. Mr Abbott has invested so heavily in Death Cult FUD that a substantial part of the population no longer trusts him to tell us the truth. This in turn makes it harder to generate an appropriate national response to some quite deadly fanatics.
Sir Mad Cyril@85
Now if that had been Labor it all would have been spun something like –
[ Tony Abbott Refuses to Deny He will Sack Credlin ]
@AusHumanRights: LIVE – @GillianTriggs at media conference for #HRInquiry into Children in #Immigration Detention https://t.co/OgKWrx4Uif #AusLaw #AusPol
“@AusHumanRights: #HRInquiry “My religion is a target for Taliban. No one is safe and now I escaped. I am in detention.” unaccompanied child at the Nauru”
“@shanebazzi: .@GillianTriggs: never again should any child be treated this way again in Australia’s name #HRinquiry”
Of course Abbott can’t answer the question about sacking his CoS. Peta hasn’t told him whether he can yet.
Don @ 89
I found a hard copy of The Aus at work.
The picture on the net is indeed cropped, not that the larger one makes a great deal more sense.
Abbott is trapped in somethign that resembles a cross between a bee-hive, a spiders web and a cocoon. It is all having froma tree branch which is right at the top of the image, and cropped out on the net.
Is “Trapped in his own web of lies” what the cartoon is trying to say?
[ “Trapped in his own web of lies” what the cartoon is trying to say? ]
Hard to disagree with that. Even coming from Newscorpse.
@AusHumanRights: #HRInquiry – Media Statement by @GillianTriggs – https://t.co/kZ54ocTrab #AusLaw
Due to government timing Tanya Plibersek is on her feet about the Bali Two with a powerful speech at the moment. The Indonesians will not the HRC report and timing of speeches in parliament on the Bali Two.
Rates Analyst@97
Could be! He is trapped in them, in any case.