Morgan: 57.5-42.5 to Labor

Polling conducted over the past two weekends finds the Abbott government not unexpectedly going from very bad to worse.

I wouldn’t normally lead with a Morgan poll so soon after a Newspoll result, but today of course is a special occasion (for future generations who might happen to be reading this, Tony Abbott today beat off a spill motion by the unconvincing margin of 61 to 39). After conducting an unusual poll last time in which the field work period was extended and the surveying limited to a single weekend, this is back to the usual Roy Morgan practice of combining face-to-face and SMS polling from two weeks, with field work conducted only on Saturdays and Sundays, with a sample of around 3000 (2939 to be precise about it). So the poll was half conducted in the knowledge that a spill was imminent, and half not.

On the primary vote, there has been a straight two-point shift from the Coalition to Labor since the previous poll, which was conducted from January 23-27, with Australia Day and the Prince Philip knighthood having landed on January 26. This puts Labor on 41.5% and the Coalition on 35.5%, with the Greens steady on 12% and Palmer United down one to 2%. A slightly better flow of preferences for the Coalition blunts the impact a little on the headline respondent-allocated two-party figure, on which Labor’s lead is up from 56.5-43.5 to 57.5 to 42.5. The move is a little bigger on previous election preferences, from 55.5-44.5 to 57-43. Tomorrow’s Essential Research should complete the cycle of pre-spill opinion polling, and I’m well and truly back in my old routine of updating BludgerTrack overnight on Wednesday/Thursday.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Essential Research’s reputation for stability emerges unharmed with another 54-46 reading this week, with the Coalition up a point to 39%, Labor steady on 41%, the Greens up one to 10% and Palmer United steady on 3%. It’s a different story on the monthly reading of Tony Abbott’s leadership ratings, with approval down eight to 27% and disapproval up nine to 62%. However, Bill Shorten’s position has also sharply worsened, with approval down six to 33% and disapproval up five to 38%. Given this is nowhere reflected in other polling, one might surmise that Essential has hit bad samples for Labor over consecutive weeks. Shorten’s lead as preferred prime minister is nonetheless out from 37-35 to 39-31.

Other questions find 59% approval for the government dropping its paid parental leave scheme versus 25% for disapprove; 59% support for same-sex marriage, up four since December, with 28% opposed, down four; 26% saying support for same-sex marriage might favourably influence vote choice, 19% saying it would do so unfavourably, and 48% saying it would make no difference; 44% favouring a negative response to government retention of personal data and information against 38% for a positive one; and a suite of questions on privatisation that do a fair bit to explain what happened to Campbell Newman.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,707 comments on “Morgan: 57.5-42.5 to Labor”

  1. cud chewer@1481

    Barney,

    Thoroughly agree. The anti-Green sentiment goes beyond rational calculus and enters into an irrational space where the Greens must be portrayed as pixies. In reality most Green policies are quite sound and if anything Labor should be quietly stealing them.

    I think you will find most of the sensible ones were pinched from Labor in the first place.

    Look how they tried to appropriate the legacy of Whitlam.

    Scoundrels!

  2. bemused

    [Bob Ellis must be sailing close to the wind with this]
    He often does . “dorm mistress” is not made up, I went to a school where male teachers were called “Masters” and the “adjacently” comment is true.

    We know what he implies but the “black and white” interpretation says he does not say it.

  3. victoria:

    It’s in tweet form, thus no elaboration or explanation, but FWIW Mumble’s view on the next election:

    [Peter Brent @mumbletwits · 6h 6 hours ago
    Labor’s ignores the powerful debt/deficits argument. Is why they will lose in 2016. #QT]

  4. citizen@1497

    What goes around, comes around…

    Freya Newman wins job with the Greens

    The former fashion school student who leaked details of a scholarship awarded to one of Prime Minister Tony Abbott’s daughters is now working as a paid intern for the Greens.

    Ms Newman, 21, pleaded guilty last year to accessing restricted data from the Whitehouse Institute of Design, but avoided a conviction or a possible two-year jail term.

    Ms Newman applied for a paid internship with Greens higher education spokeswoman Lee Rhiannon last November.


    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/freya-newman-wins-job-with-the-greens-20150211-13bzs9.html

    So we can expect a range of Greens designer outfits to appear soon?

    Can’t wait to see them 😆

  5. [confessions

    victoria:

    It’s in tweet form, thus no elaboration or explanation, but FWIW Mumble’s view on the next election:

    Peter Brent @mumbletwits · 6h 6 hours ago
    Labor’s ignores the powerful debt/deficits argument. Is why they will lose in 2016. #QT]

    This is bollocks. Labor will be able to point to their own record – a deficit of 1.2% of GDP in 2012/13 – and a forecast to return to balance; while also comparing with the LNP’s likely deficit running at 4% or more and no credible plans to return to balance.

    If things go very badly for the budget, the LNP will lose the AAA credit rating before the next election.

  6. Briefly @1475:

    So what you’re saying is that a big part of the problem came from the halfway-house of integration that is the Eurozone? There’s certainly some truth to that, although I think you’re underestimating the impact of the currency imbalances at joining.

    However, your solution – it follows – would be “all in or all out”, then? Either all-in for full fiscal integration (putting to bed the issue of national gov’t bankruptcy) or all-out and leaving the Euro?

    Personally, I think Greece should opt for the latter – partly so it can get its own house into order, and partly to spare it the seemingly-endless austerity that the troika have been pushing on it since 2009.

  7. I think the easiest way to put any comment by bolt into context is to say,

    “Today, Andrew Bolt, a convicted racist, said…”

    It makes it much easier to understand any corresponding information.

  8. Boerwar @1463: Unusually, I agree with you. Well done, Mr. Shorten – may you call out many more Coalition lies!

    Bemused @1499: Consider the calculus: Currently, 80% of Greens voters preference Labor.

    Therefore, for Labor to collect one extra 2PP vote (under most circumstances), it needs to peel off five Greens and get them to vote Labor (1) instead.

    The same result is achieved by Labor persuading one Coalition voter to jump ship to Labor – one vote marching directly from Lib to Lab.

  9. Barney in Saigon@1512

    bemused

    Posted Wednesday, February 11, 2015 at 8:48 pm | Permalink

    Have you borrowed Joe’s ‘eleventy’ calculator?


    Why?

    Your calculations are based on dubious assumptions.

    The reality is that the Greens vote comes 80% from people who would otherwise vote Labor.

    For them to be of any benefit to Labor, they would need to be attracting former Liberal voters and getting them to preference Labor. But their strategies are aimed at peeling votes off the left of Labor.

    They are largely a distraction and a nuisance. Rather like a loud buzzing mosquito.

  10. [If things go very badly for the budget, the LNP will lose the AAA credit rating before the next election.]

    Love to see Hockey/Abbott worm their way out of that one!

    But surely that’s unlikely in terms of the federal budget?

  11. 1499

    Has Hockey every actually said eleventy on the public record?

    Eleventy, while not an official number, does convey an actual numerical value of 110. It is not like one of those made up numbers with no actual numerical value.

  12. Actually I think Labor should bring debt and deficit to centre stage and point out the Liberals are economically incompetent; have only offered the Greek solution (destroy the economy and social structure) and that it has not worked with government debt and unemployment rising. That the solution is to grow the economy, that was what Labor was attempting to do by building the new industry enabling NDN and supporting the new renewable industry.

    Australia still needs to grow its economy into new areas and that we have lost three years under the Liberals. Oh and we have to educate our young; and support research and development.

    The last time our economy was restructured because it had to be; Keating did it; the Liberals have proved they are incapable; vote Labor.

  13. @ briefly, 1511

    [Labor will be able to point to their own record – a deficit of 1.2% of GDP in 2012/13 – and a forecast to return to balance; while also comparing with the LNP’s likely deficit running at 4% or more and no credible plans to return to balance.]

    Peter Brent’s main criticism is that the ALP actually boast about going into deficit to save the economy. This just makes the Coalition’s argument for them.

    The ALP should instead argue that the deficit was caused by loss of government revenue due to economic conditions & that even an LNP government would have gone into deficit.

    http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/mumble/index.php/theaustralian/comments/lets_talk_about_the_opposition/

  14. Chinda@1452

    Yes! Guys, please remember that, as Chinda says, the ALP + Greens vote is generally 50% or greater. We need to work together to keep the far right in their box. Otherwise we risk the ALP/ DLP dynamic that kept the progressive movement (aka Labor back then) out of Federal government from 1949 until December 1972!

    This does not mean we should not debate policy between ourselves – we should, but both sides seeing each other as the *REAL* enemy rather than the LNP is really counterproductive!

  15. I should add that Shorton used those very words (the solution is to grow the economy not shrink it) when pressed over the budget on insiders two weeks ago. And good on him I say.

  16. [bemused

    Posted Wednesday, February 11, 2015 at 9:03 pm | Permalink

    Barney in Saigon

    They are largely a distraction and a nuisance. Rather like a loud buzzing mosquito.
    ]

    My point exactly the Greens are an annoyance, so why worry about.

    Bleeding to the left has minor repercussions compared with bleeding to the right.

  17. Tetsujin @1522:

    Also the wrong argument. The correct argument is to point out that the Coalition’s deficits are bigger.

    While I dislike pandering to economic ignorance (a time of weak private-sector demand requires either deficits or recession), the winning electoral argument is to point out the LNP’s utter hypocrisy and uselessness on the subject.

  18. A governments job is to balance an economy; not a budget. Labor tried to do that. The Liberals focus is too narrow; tank the economy and the budget will follow.

  19. BRIEFLY – At the next election, Labor (I assume) is going to soak the rich (who don’t vote for them anyway). Didn’t Peter Brent see labor’s platform at the last election?

  20. Barney @1525:

    What Bemused also fails to mention is that every one of those “bled-off” voters comes home in the form of preferences.

    The numpties who vote Green-Lib (about 20% of Greens voters) aren’t terribly likely to vote ALP anyway, with or without the Greens present.

  21. 1516

    Some of the Green voters, including some of the majority of Greens voters who preference the ALP, would have previously voted for someone other than the ALP. Whether that was independents, the Democrats, micro parties, informal or a combination thereof. The directing of Green preferences, by Green HTVCs, is also important for the ALP`s chances at reelection.

    Also, in 2014, the Greens took Prahran of the Liberals when the ALP would not have if they had survived until the 2CP count. Do you want Clem Newton-Brown (the Liberal) to still be MLA for Prahran?

  22. Barney in Saigon

    [Bleeding to the left has minor repercussions compared with bleeding to the right.]
    Yep . It was losing the “Howard Battlers” that really hurt.

  23. Barney in Saigon@1525

    bemused

    Posted Wednesday, February 11, 2015 at 9:03 pm | Permalink

    Barney in Saigon

    They are largely a distraction and a nuisance. Rather like a loud buzzing mosquito.


    My point exactly the Greens are an annoyance, so why worry about.

    Bleeding to the left has minor repercussions compared with bleeding to the right.

    Why worry?

    Same reason as I swat the mosquito.

  24. The best thing Labor can do with the Greens is to ignore them; that way they don’t create enemies when they need them and they have more energy to deal with the party that is trying to raid treasury; tank our economy and destroy our social structure.

  25. Mmmm…so Costello has lectured the backbench on the need to stick with Sloppy Joe’s budget and has addressed cabinet imploring the Coalition not to abandon any of their budget proposals.

  26. victoria:

    There’s still the Abbott factor. I’m not convinced that the leadership stuff has been settled once and for all. Rather than communicating with voters, Hockey et al are hectoring us, which is more likely to repulse people even more, or worse cause more people to stop listening.

  27. Matt@1530

    Barney @1525:

    What Bemused also fails to mention is that every one of those “bled-off” voters comes home in the form of preferences.

    The numpties who vote Green-Lib (about 20% of Greens voters) aren’t terribly likely to vote ALP anyway, with or without the Greens present.

    Thank you, you just agreed with me.

    You are not winning votes from the Libs that stay left of centre. You are just a plaything where they can register a protest on the way to voting Lib.

    Go out and win votes from the right and keep them.

  28. [Tom the first and best

    Posted Wednesday, February 11, 2015 at 9:11 pm | Permalink

    1499

    Has Hockey every actually said eleventy on the public record?

    Eleventy, while not an official number, does convey an actual numerical value of 110. It is not like one of those made up numbers with no actual numerical value.
    ]

    To my knowledge eleventy was first used by Tolkien, in the opening chapter of Fellowship of the Ring, to describe Bilbo’s age.

    … his eleventy first birthday … (111th)
    … I am eleventy one years old today … (111)

    Apparently it’s roots are in old English and it’s meaning self evident.

  29. [1513
    Matt]

    Since fiscal union is impossible, Greece has very few choices. If they cannot re-schedule their debts and reduce the interest rates that apply, they will inevitably default. But in any case, were Greece to withdraw from the Euro, a de facto default will also occur.

    To be realistic, since default is drawing inexorably nearer, they should plan for it and choose the course that will give them the best chance to revive growth and social equality.

    Whether Greece withdraws from the Euro (devalues its exchange rate) or not, they must re-order their economy so it remains a net saver rather by returning to its past as a net dis-saver.

    The question they have to answer is whether they wish to do this in ways that favour those Greeks who now have jobs and/or savings (by staying in the Euro), or in ways that favour all those who have been economically and socially disenfranchised (by leaving the Euro). They can choose deflation or reflation. For mine, since deflation ultimately impoverishes the entire population, they have no choice. They should choose reflation, to which the precursor is Euro-exit, no matter the upset this will bring.

  30. And “Tom the first and best” makes a very valid point; for the last 40 years there has been a micro party that soaks up about 8% of the vote; the name has changed but the basic reason why it exists has not (a pox on both your houses). The carry on over the greens is an absolute nonsense.

  31. Just saw an ad for the NSW election from the Nurses Association: don’t privatise our hospitals and health. Featured cost of health emergencies (e.g. Broken leg, hernia) in the USA ( with the US National anthem playing in the background). Effective ad I thought. Maybe Federal Labor can do something similar for the Federal election, with a similar ad for Higher Education.

  32. frednk@1542

    And “Tom the first and best” makes a very valid point; for the last 40 years there has been a micro party that soaks up about 8% of the vote; the name has changed but the basic reason why it exists has not (a pox on both your houses). The carry on over the greens is an absolute nonsense.

    Yes, but it is hard to ignore that buzzing mosquito. 😀

  33. vic

    This was his final word on the election

    [
    Labor is reporting a “good vibe” from early voters. Vibe schmibe; the world looks rosy to them because of the polling.

    I’m not as confident as most that a change of government is on the way tomorrow. Betting markets currently give Denis Napthine only a 17 per cent chance of surviving. I reckon it’s about 40 per cent.
    ]

    Considering the result, not too bad.

    http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/mumble/index.php/theaustralian/comments/victoria_minus_one_day/

  34. Bemused that buzzy mosquito is why Gillard could get legisltion through and Abbott can not. The world would be a better place if people like you thought a little deeper.

  35. Bemused @1538:

    You really are silly, aren’t you? Those people aren’t “playing” – they dislike Liberal AND Labor, and so vote for someone else.

    Those 20% of votes on Senate tickets are a net gain for the Left. They’re people who would otherwise have voted for a Coalition Senator, but instead vote for a Green or (via party-list preferences) a Labor Senator instead.

    And while I’m sure that you’d prefer a Labor Senator to a Greens Senator, I’m also sure that you’d prefer a Greens Senator (who votes Labor’s way 70-80% of the time) to a Coalition Senator (who votes Labor’s way approx. 0% of the time).

    The only way the Greens are going to seek right-wing voters is either (a) by discussing matters with them and making them non-right-wing voters; or (b) abandoning our principles and becoming another party that stands for nothing.

    To the first – many Greens generally do just that. To the second – Australia already has at least two parties who stand for very little but their own interests; I’d say that’s sufficient.

    PS: “Playing”, as you so patronizingly put it, put Clem Newton-Brown – a Liberal – out of a job last November. Absent the Greens, he’d have won re-election.

    Briefly @1540:

    Fair enough – well-argued. Do you think the Eurozone will survive a Grexit, or will other periphery nations also consider leaving?

  36. Speaking of advertising

    [Just a quick update for you — the higher education posters thousands of you helped fund are currently being printed and sent out to campuses across the country.

    University O-Weeks are beginning and thanks to those who donated, Labor clubs will have some high quality materials to let students know the real facts on uni fee deregulation.

    PosterReportback.jpg

    We’ll let you know when we’ve got some pictures of them out in the field, but I thought you might like to know where we’re at.

    Thanks for your support,

    George Wright]

  37. And, Bemused – before you claim that it’s just another case of Democrats, two differences:

    1) The Democrats generally ran split-ticket preferencing between Liberal and Labor: the Greens always preference Labor ahead of Liberal.

    2) The Green vote is larger than the Democrat vote ever was, and looking quite stable too.

    We’re not going away, no matter how much abuse you heap on our heads.

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