Morgan: 57.5-42.5 to Labor

Polling conducted over the past two weekends finds the Abbott government not unexpectedly going from very bad to worse.

I wouldn’t normally lead with a Morgan poll so soon after a Newspoll result, but today of course is a special occasion (for future generations who might happen to be reading this, Tony Abbott today beat off a spill motion by the unconvincing margin of 61 to 39). After conducting an unusual poll last time in which the field work period was extended and the surveying limited to a single weekend, this is back to the usual Roy Morgan practice of combining face-to-face and SMS polling from two weeks, with field work conducted only on Saturdays and Sundays, with a sample of around 3000 (2939 to be precise about it). So the poll was half conducted in the knowledge that a spill was imminent, and half not.

On the primary vote, there has been a straight two-point shift from the Coalition to Labor since the previous poll, which was conducted from January 23-27, with Australia Day and the Prince Philip knighthood having landed on January 26. This puts Labor on 41.5% and the Coalition on 35.5%, with the Greens steady on 12% and Palmer United down one to 2%. A slightly better flow of preferences for the Coalition blunts the impact a little on the headline respondent-allocated two-party figure, on which Labor’s lead is up from 56.5-43.5 to 57.5 to 42.5. The move is a little bigger on previous election preferences, from 55.5-44.5 to 57-43. Tomorrow’s Essential Research should complete the cycle of pre-spill opinion polling, and I’m well and truly back in my old routine of updating BludgerTrack overnight on Wednesday/Thursday.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Essential Research’s reputation for stability emerges unharmed with another 54-46 reading this week, with the Coalition up a point to 39%, Labor steady on 41%, the Greens up one to 10% and Palmer United steady on 3%. It’s a different story on the monthly reading of Tony Abbott’s leadership ratings, with approval down eight to 27% and disapproval up nine to 62%. However, Bill Shorten’s position has also sharply worsened, with approval down six to 33% and disapproval up five to 38%. Given this is nowhere reflected in other polling, one might surmise that Essential has hit bad samples for Labor over consecutive weeks. Shorten’s lead as preferred prime minister is nonetheless out from 37-35 to 39-31.

Other questions find 59% approval for the government dropping its paid parental leave scheme versus 25% for disapprove; 59% support for same-sex marriage, up four since December, with 28% opposed, down four; 26% saying support for same-sex marriage might favourably influence vote choice, 19% saying it would do so unfavourably, and 48% saying it would make no difference; 44% favouring a negative response to government retention of personal data and information against 38% for a positive one; and a suite of questions on privatisation that do a fair bit to explain what happened to Campbell Newman.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,707 comments on “Morgan: 57.5-42.5 to Labor”

  1. Matt@1447

    Bemused @1442:

    Thank you for answering the question. Now, you state that Labor is not competing for the racist vote – how do you square this statement with the following actions:

    None of what you quoted was racially based.

    Are you trying to be as tedious as Borewar?

  2. [Australia without the Greens would be New Zealand. A neoliberal hellhole with crumbling infrastructure and an exodus of professionals.]

    This. I get fecking sick of all the Greens/Labor wars. The fact is, the combined Greens/Labor vote is invariably over 50%.

    We need to work together, not against each other. It’s what we need to do to keep the Tories out of power, which should be the main objective for both of us.

  3. chinda63@1452

    Australia without the Greens would be New Zealand. A neoliberal hellhole with crumbling infrastructure and an exodus of professionals.


    This. I get fecking sick of all the Greens/Labor wars. The fact is, the combined Greens/Labor vote is invariably over 50%.

    We need to work together, not against each other. It’s what we need to do to keep the Tories out of power, which should be the main objective for both of us.

    What a splendid idea!

    Now, off you go all you Greens, win votes from the Libs.

  4. [Fallout from the world’s worst nuclear accident just won’t go away. Radioactive clouds may once again spread over Europe, as rising fires release radiation locked up in the upper layers of soil in the dense forests near Chernobyl in Ukraine and Belarus

    Forest fires there have already been re-distributing that radioactivity over Europe. But the situation is set to worsen with climate change, political instability – and a bizarre effect of radiation on dead leaves.

    After a reactor at the Chernobyl nuclear plant exploded in 1986, people were evacuated from 4800 square kilometres of the most heavily contaminated areas in Ukraine and neighbouring Belarus. This “exclusion zone” became a haven for wildlife and a dense boreal forest.]

    http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn26933-rise-in-wildfires-may-resurrect-chernobyls-radiation.html#.VNsTH_mUd75

  5. Bemused @1451:

    You set a high bar, particularly with his constant ranting about “Greens = Greeks = ebil” and suchlike.

    If you must split hairs, shall we say “xenophobic” instead of “racist”? Although I’m sure that you realize that a significant portion of anti-refugee sentiment is about skin colour…

    Chinda @1452:

    Greens + ALP primary votes:

    Federal Election 2013 – 42.03%
    Federal Election 2010 – 49.75%
    Federal Election 2007 – 51.27%
    Federal Election 2004 – 44.82%

    Before that, the Democrats were still a force. So, in the four elections since the Australian Democrats imploded, GRN+ALP >50% on only one.

    To address your larger point, 83% of Greens voters preference Labor at the 2013 Election, which was actually an increase from 78% at the 2010 Election.

    Most Greens know which of the two major Parties is less objectionable, thank you.

  6. [1446
    poroti

    Could one of the Bludger lounge’s economic experts explain to this muy non expert why this question is asked ? It always puzzled me when Greece was bailed out the first time claims a pimple on an elephants bum economy falling over would herald the four horses of the apocalypse.

    Would it matter to the world – or Europe – if Greece left the euro?]

    Reversion to the drachma will drive up import costs in Greece so will reduce real wages and the (Euro-expressed) value of savings held in Greek banks. At first, Euro-exit will mean more austerity for Greeks. But if there is a real depreciation (inflation does not become persistent), Euro exit will also help revive growth, though from a lower income base.

    If Greece leaves the Euro, some of Greece’s creditors may see the face value of their loans written down in Euro terms, so they will also carry some of the exchange rate adjustment.

    Beyond that, a Greek exit from the Euro will be similar to past exits by other jurisdictions from, for example, the Gold Standard and other currency pegs, which is to say it will arrest deflation in Greece. Greeks will no longer have to prefer the accumulation (intensified saving) of a foreign currency, the Euro, to the other forms of financial and economic activity. There would be costs to asset holders (Greece’s creditors) but these are relatively modest and there’s no doubt they could be easily carried by EU.

    If, as Matt suggests, other “weaker” economic zones also left the Euro, then we would probably see the Euro appreciate, which would have the effect of reducing the trade surplus of the export-oriented economies, such as Germany, Finland and The Netherlands. In turn, this may lead to a reduction in their savings rates/increase in their consumption and increases in their real wages. The wealthiest economies of Europe would then become sources of growth for the rest of Europe, rather than, as at present, sources of contraction.

    All in all, Greek exit from the Euro would be an excellent development, though would bring a lot of upheaval along the way.

  7. Antony Green dissects the changing trend in Green preferences…
    [

    February 11, 2015

    Huge Shift in Preference Flows at 2015 Queensland Election

    As well as the massive shift in first preference votes from LNP to Labor, a key feature of the 2015 Queensland election has been the shift in preference flows.

    With preference distributions now being published, it is possible to begin disaggregating the preference flows.

    In 2009, based on preference flows for the final excluded Green candidate in 71 electorates, Green preferences flowed 39.4% to Labor, 17.8% to the LNP and 42.8% exhausted.

    In 2012, in the smaller sample of 33 electorates where Green candidates were the final exclusion, preferences flowed 43.3% to Labor, 16.3% to the LNP and 40.4% exhausted.

    So far in 2015, in 19 electorates where the same Green preference data is available, the flows are 65.8% to Labor, 11.1% to the LNP and 23.0% exhausted.

    On a Green vote of 8.4% statewide, that shift in preferences, an extra 20% flow to Labor, is translating into more than 2% worth of swing to Labor. With all published polls having used 2012 preference flows, it is no wonder that opinion polls underestimated the swing to Labor, even though most were relatively accurate with their first ]

    http://ab.co/1DZMrD4

  8. Briefly @1457:

    Well-stated, and I agree with most of it.

    However, the elephant you missed out on describing was the fact that Germany’s huge trade surplus (by far, the biggest in Europe!) was mostly achieved by beggaring their neighbours.

    Corporate subsidies from Berlin, joining the Euro at a low peg for the Deutschmark and so on and so forth – lots of little tricks used by Schroder and Merkel after him to keep Germany rich. And now they’re wagging their fingers at the periphery for “poor fiscal discipline”, when Spain and Portugal – to name two examples – entered the GFC with much lower debt burdens than Germany!

    Although I do find it lovely that many people who insist that Germany’s a model of fiscal rectitude (i.e., the right wing as a rule) seem to miss out that it has a net debt/GDP ratio six times that of Australia – 82% to 11% for Australia.

  9. mari

    Thousands of indigenous organisations to be smashed, $500 million cut from remote spending, swinging cuts in Indigenous-specific fed programs…

    … and Abbott has the hide to maunder on as if he gives a rat’s about the way in which he is widening the gap.

    Warren Mundine and all the Indigenous Advisory Committee’s members should resign: they are out and out failures.

    Good on Shorten for calling the Coalition out.

  10. The new direction Liberal Party where there is full coordination and where every public statement is on message (just like the submarines):

    [Is the $5 GP fee on or off? The Prime Minister’s own parliamentary secretary doesn’t seem to know

    CONFUSION over the fate of the government’s unpopular $5 GP fee continues to dog the government with the Prime Minister’s Parliamentary secretary telling radio listeners it has been scrapped.

    Not so, says the Health Minister Sussan Ley.]

    http://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/is-the-5-gp-fee-on-or-off-the-prime-ministers-own-parliamentary-secretary-doesnt-seem-to-know/story-fneuz9ev-1227216426229

  11. Boerwar 1463

    You are so right & these pathetic grubs who walked out, probably applauded him

    Mike Hillard 1465

    That is one of the points that angered me, Broadbent used the excuse Bill Shorten was being political to walk out. Hello Mr Broadbent look at your dear leader please

  12. Boerwar

    [Good on Shorten for calling the Coalition out]
    +1000 . The @QQ#$%^%! that is the PM tries to palm himself off as a bestie of Aboriginals while he is vigorously kicking them in the groin.

  13. Such a charming individual!

    [Dave Tollner, who resigned as Northern Territory deputy chief minister last year amid a gay slur controversy, has denied he ever calling a staffer a “pillow biter” or “shirt lifter”.

    Mr Tollner, who this week regained his position as Treasurer amid a Cabinet reshuffle by Chief Minister Adam Giles, was on Wednesday asked if he would apologise for the comments that led to his resignation last year.]
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-11/nt-mp-dave-tollner-denies-homophobic-rant-pillow-biter-comment/6086922

  14. [mikehilliard
    Posted Wednesday, February 11, 2015 at 8:00 pm | PERMALINK
    Mari@1460

    Yeah, not like Abbott hasn’t ever turned a non partisan moment political.]

    He has been notorious for turning meetings with overseas leaders into local political rants. I seem to recall he did this at G20.

  15. [A Human Rights Commission inquiry into children in immigration detention has called for a royal commission into the practice, and what can be done to help those who have suffered as a result.

    The long-awaited report which was completed late last year and released by the Federal Government this evening has found more than a third of children in detention were assessed as having serious mental health disorders.

    In a statement Attorney-General George Brandis said he is disappointed and surprised the Australian Human Rights Commission did not start its inquiry until 2014, given the problem was at its worst before the 2013 election.

    More to come.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-11/call-for-royal-commission-into-children-in-immigration-detention/6086918

  16. [1461
    Matt]

    The finger-wagging at Germany could be applied to most of the Euro-zone states, who all benefited in some ways at least from the creation of the zone. It’s also well-worth recalling that customs and monetary union were expected to be followed by a form of fiscal integration. The Germans – who pay their taxes and could be expected carry the greatest fiscal load – did not derail this step.

    This alludes to the basic flaw in the Euro system – bureaucratic, political, monetary and fiscal power all live at different addresses. While the people of Europe obviously no longer wish to fight each other (!) deeper economic, political and institutional integration have not automatically followed from customs and monetary union.

    At least one of the reasons people are anxious about the break up of the Euro is that it may lead to break up of the other institutions that have been built in the post-war period. Since it is Europeans who would have to live with the consequences of such a fragmentation, we should wish they can overcome their current problems rather than, as is often the case, finding ways to reproach them for their trouble.

  17. Why is there this continual Green/Labor debate?

    For it appears Labor is just wasting resources targeting the Greens.

    With preference flows as they are, Labor needs 5 Green voters to switch to receive a 1 vote benefit.

    While for every Coalition voter who changes it gets 1 extra vote and the Coalition gets 1 less.

    Surely targeting Coalition voters maximises your return.

    Of course the above is only true in seats where the major parties are fighting it out.

    In Labor/Green contests like Melbourne then the gloves come off and it’s everyone for themselves.

  18. [poroti

    Posted Wednesday, February 11, 2015 at 8:16 pm | Permalink

    frednk

    Is South Australia part of Russia?

    Abbott is a B.A. Santamaria fanboi. So SA having a Labor government means the answer is Yes.
    ]

    Snap 🙂

  19. briefly

    I remember waaay back when the Euro was proposed and the horse trading had started. There were lots of articles about the determination of the Germans to not lose the rock solid D’Mark and the guarantees they were demanding to give it up. At the time it was being reported as some sort of “racial memory” of the post WWI hyperinflation.

  20. Barney,

    Thoroughly agree. The anti-Green sentiment goes beyond rational calculus and enters into an irrational space where the Greens must be portrayed as pixies. In reality most Green policies are quite sound and if anything Labor should be quietly stealing them.

  21. [cud chewer

    Posted Wednesday, February 11, 2015 at 8:19 pm | Permalink

    Can’t we just invade Greece? 🙂
    ]

    We could use our new Japanese subs, not to mention those wonderful new American fighter jets.

  22. My mum said to me that in the recent interviews with Hockey and Abbott they were both using similar patriotic language. Did anyone else catch this.

    And what do they say about patriotism – the last refuge of a scoundrel?

  23. I would say that a party which enabled Labor to enact major legislation from 2010 to 2013 is highly effective and necessary. They didn’t even implode once.

  24. cud chewer

    They are . Abbott today again declaring “I love this country” and lightly tapping his chest as he said it. Anyone would think there was a doubt and we needed reassurance he didn’t. But yes the scoundrel likely taking the traditional scoundrel’s last resort.

  25. [cud chewer

    Posted Wednesday, February 11, 2015 at 8:23 pm | Permalink

    Barney,

    Thoroughly agree. The anti-Green sentiment goes beyond rational calculus and enters into an irrational space where the Greens must be portrayed as pixies. In reality most Green policies are quite sound and if anything Labor should be quietly stealing them.
    ]

    I agree and the other thing is the Greens allow Labor to occupy a more central position putting them in a position to harvest more votes in the centre.

  26. The “patriotic” language has been noted elsewhere. Two people today mentioned it to me, unprompted.

    Meanwhile, speaking of siding with the enemy, the ABC web site – true to form – has run the Kim Il Jong, Putin Submarine sledge with a straight bat. Absolutely po-faced, as if it was a comment that should be taken seriously.

  27. Bolt currently on 2GB (car radio, I was picking up the takeaway curry) entertaining calls for Muslim fundies to have their Facebook pages censored.

    He claims to be conflicted and inconsistent on this, but is coming down on the side of censorship.

    Didn’t take long, did it?

  28. [1486
    poroti

    cud chewer

    They are . Abbott today again declaring “I love this country” and lightly tapping his chest as he said it.]

    Abbott may be in love. The rest of us have a serious case of buyer’s remorse.

  29. Bushfire Bill

    Snap ! When it came to a Sky News break earlier “Today the PM claimed Labor ….Russia… North Korea…..blah blah blah”. Showed just the clip of his claims and played it with the straightest of bats.

  30. [The ABC is seeking an experienced, talented and creative journalist to take over leadership of Australia’s premier daily television current affairs television program, 7.30.

    The successful applicant will have the experience and skills to ensure 7.30 maintains a consistently high standard of relevant, compelling and comprehensive television current affairs as well as providing unique digital content.]
    http://careers.abc.net.au/caw/en/job/494472/executive-producer-730-report

    I think that ship has sailed. I haven’t watched 730 in ages, certainly not since Ferguson was moved on. I’d hardly say the show is compelling current affairs viewing these days.

  31. Bob Ellis must be sailing close to the wind with this:
    [Cheekily, Tony Wright aimed at him the serpentine metaphor of ‘a national headmaster, who is also, as it turns out, self-confessed recalcitrant head boy…a caught-out adolescent, abashed and calling it chastened. The class clown magically revealed, confessing and promising to be better. Everyone would be better, including his dorm mistress, Peta Credlin.’ It was the first time the words ‘mistress’ and ‘Peta Credlin’ had occurred adjacently in the mainstream media.]
    Must read Tony Wright to see just what he said.

  32. [Bolt currently on 2GB (car radio, I was picking up the takeaway curry) entertaining calls for Muslim fundies to have their Facebook pages censored.]

    Like I’ve said many times, those who scream the loudest about being censored are invariably the first to demand the views they disagree with be shut down.

  33. What goes around, comes around…

    [Freya Newman wins job with the Greens

    The former fashion school student who leaked details of a scholarship awarded to one of Prime Minister Tony Abbott’s daughters is now working as a paid intern for the Greens.

    Ms Newman, 21, pleaded guilty last year to accessing restricted data from the Whitehouse Institute of Design, but avoided a conviction or a possible two-year jail term.

    Ms Newman applied for a paid internship with Greens higher education spokeswoman Lee Rhiannon last November.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/freya-newman-wins-job-with-the-greens-20150211-13bzs9.html

  34. Barney in Saigon@1476

    Why is there this continual Green/Labor debate?

    For it appears Labor is just wasting resources targeting the Greens.

    With preference flows as they are, Labor needs 5 Green voters to switch to receive a 1 vote benefit.

    While for every Coalition voter who changes it gets 1 extra vote and the Coalition gets 1 less.

    Surely targeting Coalition voters maximises your return.

    Of course the above is only true in seats where the major parties are fighting it out.

    In Labor/Green contests like Melbourne then the gloves come off and it’s everyone for themselves.

    Have you borrowed Joe’s ‘eleventy’ calculator?

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