Morgan: 57.5-42.5 to Labor

Polling conducted over the past two weekends finds the Abbott government not unexpectedly going from very bad to worse.

I wouldn’t normally lead with a Morgan poll so soon after a Newspoll result, but today of course is a special occasion (for future generations who might happen to be reading this, Tony Abbott today beat off a spill motion by the unconvincing margin of 61 to 39). After conducting an unusual poll last time in which the field work period was extended and the surveying limited to a single weekend, this is back to the usual Roy Morgan practice of combining face-to-face and SMS polling from two weeks, with field work conducted only on Saturdays and Sundays, with a sample of around 3000 (2939 to be precise about it). So the poll was half conducted in the knowledge that a spill was imminent, and half not.

On the primary vote, there has been a straight two-point shift from the Coalition to Labor since the previous poll, which was conducted from January 23-27, with Australia Day and the Prince Philip knighthood having landed on January 26. This puts Labor on 41.5% and the Coalition on 35.5%, with the Greens steady on 12% and Palmer United down one to 2%. A slightly better flow of preferences for the Coalition blunts the impact a little on the headline respondent-allocated two-party figure, on which Labor’s lead is up from 56.5-43.5 to 57.5 to 42.5. The move is a little bigger on previous election preferences, from 55.5-44.5 to 57-43. Tomorrow’s Essential Research should complete the cycle of pre-spill opinion polling, and I’m well and truly back in my old routine of updating BludgerTrack overnight on Wednesday/Thursday.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Essential Research’s reputation for stability emerges unharmed with another 54-46 reading this week, with the Coalition up a point to 39%, Labor steady on 41%, the Greens up one to 10% and Palmer United steady on 3%. It’s a different story on the monthly reading of Tony Abbott’s leadership ratings, with approval down eight to 27% and disapproval up nine to 62%. However, Bill Shorten’s position has also sharply worsened, with approval down six to 33% and disapproval up five to 38%. Given this is nowhere reflected in other polling, one might surmise that Essential has hit bad samples for Labor over consecutive weeks. Shorten’s lead as preferred prime minister is nonetheless out from 37-35 to 39-31.

Other questions find 59% approval for the government dropping its paid parental leave scheme versus 25% for disapprove; 59% support for same-sex marriage, up four since December, with 28% opposed, down four; 26% saying support for same-sex marriage might favourably influence vote choice, 19% saying it would do so unfavourably, and 48% saying it would make no difference; 44% favouring a negative response to government retention of personal data and information against 38% for a positive one; and a suite of questions on privatisation that do a fair bit to explain what happened to Campbell Newman.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,707 comments on “Morgan: 57.5-42.5 to Labor”

  1. Agreed, Labor need to address, and readdress the debt and deficit issue, but at a time of their choosing.
    They may as well have a policy to limit super benefits, the Libs will do a scare campaign in any event.

  2. frednk@1546

    Bemused that buzzy mosquito is why Gillard could get legisltion through and Abbott can not. The world would be a better place if people like you thought a little deeper.

    I suppose so.

    A good insecticide is better. 😉

  3. [
    Thanks. Nothing mumble has been saying of late is any more insightful than the resf of us
    ]

    vic

    You may think that, but I nearly always find his articles / blog posts interesting and very often insightful. Still, he’s no oracle, but at least he puts his name to his predictions, good and bad.

  4. Matt@1550

    And, Bemused – before you claim that it’s just another case of Democrats, two differences:

    1) The Democrats generally ran split-ticket preferencing between Liberal and Labor: the Greens always preference Labor ahead of Liberal.

    2) The Green vote is larger than the Democrat vote ever was, and looking quite stable too.

    We’re not going away, no matter how much abuse you heap on our heads.

    I don’t abuse you. My language is quite polite.

    I just expose you. Deal with it! 😀

  5. [Mumbles also said Labor would not win Vic or Qld state elections

    Actually, he predicted they would win in Victoria.]

    He also predicted Labor would win in 2013 after Rudd took over.

  6. I have to say, it’s highly amusing to see Andrew Bolt complaining about Fairfax publishing leadershit stories from anonymous sources, now it’s the Liberals copping it. Can’t recall him whinging like this when Labor was embroiled in Leadership woes.

  7. The Greens represent the views of about 10% of the electorate, and probably a segment that is better educated and better informed than the general population. I think the old joke applies – were a Green to convert to the Liberal world view and defect they would probably increase the average IQ of both parties.

    Their values are such that by and large they don’t respond to the normal electoral bribes. I don’t think they have sorted the refugee issue – nor has anyone else except the Liberals who are happy to out-nasty the Taliban. Labor are sort of a ‘whisky pritest’ in that regard. They don’t want to be nasty but feel they have to. They need to find a better way.

    And it’s a simple mathematical truth that exponential is not sustainable. Something that increases at, say, 3% p.a. (Population, GDP, energy consumption, whatever) increases 1000-fold in about 230 years. At 1% it takes 700 years.

    And I don’t see the connection between the Greens and Greece’s problems. Greece got into the Euro with the help of the sort of finance industry spivs who in this country would be generous donors to the Liberals.

    The Greens are not loons.

  8. [
    He also predicted Labor would win in 2013 after Rudd took over.
    ]

    To be fair, he changed that prediction a couple of weeks out from the election. Additionally, he was basing that prediction on the fairly reasonable assumption that Tony Abbott was unelectable.

  9. 1539

    So those who are saying Hockey uses elecventy are saying he is like Tolkien?

    Do they think Hockey will end up being useful to New Zealand?

  10. [He also predicted Labor would win in 2013 after Rudd took over.]

    The one thing that I strongly disagreed with Mumble over was his repeated insistence that Rudd was this awesome campaigner, while paradoxically claiming that the 2007 election was a drover’s dog election.

    Yes he did predict that, and had to about-face on it only a week or two into the campaign. I noticed in his post from yesterday he is now referring to Rudd as “flaky”.

  11. Clive Palmer dining tonight with Matthias Cormann and Poodle Pyne at the China Plate

    Expect his moral stand on uni fees to sink under the beef and blackean sauce

  12. [1547
    Matt

    Briefly @1540:

    Fair enough – well-argued. Do you think the Eurozone will survive a Grexit, or will other periphery nations also consider leaving?]

    The Euro will survive in some form whether or not the debtor economies remain in the zone. There are forces that push the peoples and economies of Europe apart. And there are forces that hold them together. These forces fluctuate in strength and in the ways in which they are expressed. On the whole, Europeans have far more to gain by coming together than by repelling each other. This is true in political and cultural matters as well as in the merely financial.

    I think the best solution would be one in which Greece – or any State – is able to opt out of some of the conditions of monetary union to enable their economies to be re-structured, with the understanding that they will be able to renegotiate re-joining the union when they can fully comply with the conditions of union. Greece is in a difficult situation right now. But it will not be the last State to find itself out of synch with its neighbours so the Europeans should find a way to deal with this. They should think of it as Chapter 11 for Sovereigns. This can be done for such empty constructs as corporations. There is no reason why it cannot be done for peoples too.

    There is absolutely no intrinsic reason why Greece should be insolvent. Therefore, no matter the reasons this arisen, it will be – or can be – temporary. Insolvency will pass as long as both Greece’s creditors (European neighbours and partners) and the Greeks themselves are resolved that it will be allowed to pass.

    This is all a matter of will – or, rather, willingness – and is certainly not a matter that has been determined for all time.

  13. madcyril:

    I honestly don’t understand why Bolt continues to have a readership. He is so incredibly inconsistent on a range of issues, how on earth do people keep track of his various positions?

  14. Sir mad cyril

    So Bolt Is having a crack at Fairfax for leadership stories? Does he not read the other papers in the Murdoch stable? I hear a few Toryncheerleaders at The Australian have jumped ship. I have to rely on world of mouth because I can’t bring myself to look at a Murdoch publication.

  15. I wonder if any one else had this problem.
    When I first saw the earlier Galaxy and then NewsPoll at 57:43 I was disappointed, thinking was that it.
    I then looked at the figures again. While they clearly stated 57:43, my brain interpreted them as 53:47, because the written result was so far out of the normal range.
    The Morgan result didn’t have this problem because of the decimal.

    I am looking forward to Bludger Track tomorrow.

  16. Just image how australia would be if tasmania was treated like Greece. For a federation to work the stronger states have to help the weaker. Europe will get there.

  17. [The one thing that I strongly disagreed with Mumble over was his repeated insistence that Rudd was this awesome campaigner, while paradoxically claiming that the 2007 election was a drover’s dog election.]

    I think it is clear the switch to Rudd was far too late.

  18. [1549
    confessions

    victoria:

    I share Richo’s view about Abbott’s future.]

    I also tend to hold this view. Then again, where is the alternative? Who will bring Abbott down? For different reasons, this seems to be out of reach for both Bishop and Turnbull.

  19. rossmcg

    It’s not just Fairfax that are the problem according to Bolt. The ABC is also to blame for Tony’s troubles!

    [
    The giant ABC – our biggest news organisation – seems on a mission to tear down Tony Abbott. It’s as if its leaders figure that a government led by Malcolm Turnbull or Bill Shorten would leave the overmighty ABC to dominate public debate.

    The ABC’s bias lately has been shameless – and damaging. It is actually campaigning, not merely reporting.
    ]

  20. [
    WeWantPaul
    Posted Wednesday, February 11, 2015 at 10:01 pm | Permalink

    I think it is clear the switch to Rudd was far too late.
    ]
    There is always an excuse isn’t there; an excuse for losing the support of his ministers; an excuse for leaking; an excuse for destabilising and an excuse for losing.

    No doubt you fully support Abbott and his excuses and arguments for staying.

  21. Sorry, the ABC and SBS!

    [
    But what of the SBS’s attacks on Abbott – attacks made by using taxpayers funds? In exchange for our taxes, SBS has a duty to be balanced. Instead, it seems to employ someone full time to mock Abbott, to judge by the Backburner menu:
    ]

  22. briefly:

    I remarked on this the other day, in essence that MT has likely missed his chance at the leadership in not grabbing Monday’s with both hands.

    The loon faction of the Liberals now has time to cast about for a palatable Abbott replacement at the point Abbott’s leadership really is untenable. I’m guessing that person would be Morrison.

  23. Labor can deal with the whole debt and deficit issue with one clever move: Wait till the start of the next election campaign and announce a policy to lift the GST rate to 12.5 per cent, with various offsets to disadvantaged people.

    It would completely redefine the political debate overnight. The Coalition wouldn’t know where to put themselves but they would surely have to match the policy. But by then, the Coalition would be in an even deeper hole than they are now and Labor would cruise home in the election. They will never get a better chance to kill the debt and deficit debate stone cold dead, and thereby be able to fund some very useful programmes to boot.

  24. [1575
    WeWantPaul

    I think it is clear the switch to Rudd was far too late.]

    ..or far too soon. It would have been better for Labor and the country if he had not been successful in his challenge to Beazley in 2006.

  25. [
    I remarked on this the other day, in essence that MT has likely missed his chance at the leadership in not grabbing Monday’s with both hands.
    ]

    Indeed, I’ve been pondering if Turnbull should have just gone for it on Monday. Time will tell I guess. But if we end up with PM Bishop or (please no) Morrison, this week could well be viewed as the week Turnbull squandered a golden chance.

  26. [He also predicted Labor would win in 2013 after Rudd took over.

    To be fair, he changed that prediction a couple of weeks out from the election. Additionally, he was basing that prediction on the fairly reasonable assumption that Tony Abbott was unelectable.]

    Yes he did change it. But I guess my main point is that he made the incorrect Rudd prediction only a couple months out from polling day. So how much stock should we put in this one a year and a half out from polling day, especially with the Liberals in such turmoil.

    I sometimes get the impression that Mumble is one of these “look at me” types, always looking for the controversial statement to draw attention to himself, a bit like Derryn Hinch.

  27. Another Captain’s Pick to come under scrutiny

    [Tony Abbott’s decision to hand over $3 billion of public money for the East West Link without a rigorous benefit-cost analysis will be formally investigated by the national audit office.

    Auditor-General Ian McPhee is apparently so keen to pursue the issue after making preliminary inquiries with Infrastructure Australia and the Department of Infrastructure that he adjusted the audit work program to accelerate his investigation.

    In a letter to opposition infrastructure spokesman Anthony Albanese, Mr McPhee says the audit will examine whether the commitment of the public money for both sections of the controversial road link had been informed by “appropriate advice” and “sound governance arrangements”.]

    http://bit.ly/1KLjbSO

  28. alias

    Perhaps also point out a ETS will bring in government revenue instead of costing the budget as direct action does.

    It might also be time to tax fuel equally across all industries (payback can be economically sensible and sweet).

  29. alias, it’s just not necessary (re: raise the GST). There are a multitude of other ways to get rid of any debt. Australia just doesn’t have a debt problem.

    Spending 25 billion building subs in Australia would go some way to resolving some of these issues. They’re high-tech industries, and the money gets paid to Australians that pay taxes.

    Raising the GST would be electoral suicide IMO.

  30. [
    briefly
    Posted Wednesday, February 11, 2015 at 10:10 pm | Permalink

    1575
    WeWantPaul

    I think it is clear the switch to Rudd was far too late.

    ..or far too soon. It would have been better for Labor and the country if he had not been successful in his challenge to Beazley in 2006.
    ].
    And for that we have to blame Gillard

  31. [1578
    Matt

    Briefly @1576: PM Morrison?

    No, seriously – I’ve seen his name floated a few times.]

    Maybe, though he does seem to be even less-loved than Turnbull.

  32. Alias @1585: Are you kidding me? Seriously?

    One of the most unpopular things Abbott’s proposed is a mooting of the GST rate hike, and you’re saying Labor should do the same, should push for a hike in this deeply, deeply regressive tax?

    Balls to that! Let the Budget be balanced on the backs of those who raked it in during the boom, not the battlers!

  33. alias:

    I’m uncertain that a GST rate increase would work for Labor after the huge deal it made about the likelihood of an incoming Abbott govt doing exactly that.

    Besides, the GST disproportionately impacts people on lower incomes, hence Labor’s repeated objection in govt to requests to increase its rate.

  34. 1585

    There are a lot better ways to fix budget problems than a GST hike. Raising more progressive taxes, closing loopholes and removing deductions would be better. Even removing the GST exemptions on health and education would be better.

    GST also goes to the states rather than the Commonwealth.

    The Greens and probably also other minor and micro parties would get a significant vote boost if the ALP promised raising the GST.

  35. [I’ve been pondering if Turnbull should have just gone for it on Monday. ]

    What did he have to lose? It’s not as if his household is 100% reliant on his ministerial salary, and a stint on the backbench would’ve freed him up to consolidate the backbench support he needs for a successful challenge without the constraints of being a minister.

    Since when does he owe Abbott his undivided loyalty?

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