Morgan: 57.5-42.5 to Labor

Polling conducted over the past two weekends finds the Abbott government not unexpectedly going from very bad to worse.

I wouldn’t normally lead with a Morgan poll so soon after a Newspoll result, but today of course is a special occasion (for future generations who might happen to be reading this, Tony Abbott today beat off a spill motion by the unconvincing margin of 61 to 39). After conducting an unusual poll last time in which the field work period was extended and the surveying limited to a single weekend, this is back to the usual Roy Morgan practice of combining face-to-face and SMS polling from two weeks, with field work conducted only on Saturdays and Sundays, with a sample of around 3000 (2939 to be precise about it). So the poll was half conducted in the knowledge that a spill was imminent, and half not.

On the primary vote, there has been a straight two-point shift from the Coalition to Labor since the previous poll, which was conducted from January 23-27, with Australia Day and the Prince Philip knighthood having landed on January 26. This puts Labor on 41.5% and the Coalition on 35.5%, with the Greens steady on 12% and Palmer United down one to 2%. A slightly better flow of preferences for the Coalition blunts the impact a little on the headline respondent-allocated two-party figure, on which Labor’s lead is up from 56.5-43.5 to 57.5 to 42.5. The move is a little bigger on previous election preferences, from 55.5-44.5 to 57-43. Tomorrow’s Essential Research should complete the cycle of pre-spill opinion polling, and I’m well and truly back in my old routine of updating BludgerTrack overnight on Wednesday/Thursday.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Essential Research’s reputation for stability emerges unharmed with another 54-46 reading this week, with the Coalition up a point to 39%, Labor steady on 41%, the Greens up one to 10% and Palmer United steady on 3%. It’s a different story on the monthly reading of Tony Abbott’s leadership ratings, with approval down eight to 27% and disapproval up nine to 62%. However, Bill Shorten’s position has also sharply worsened, with approval down six to 33% and disapproval up five to 38%. Given this is nowhere reflected in other polling, one might surmise that Essential has hit bad samples for Labor over consecutive weeks. Shorten’s lead as preferred prime minister is nonetheless out from 37-35 to 39-31.

Other questions find 59% approval for the government dropping its paid parental leave scheme versus 25% for disapprove; 59% support for same-sex marriage, up four since December, with 28% opposed, down four; 26% saying support for same-sex marriage might favourably influence vote choice, 19% saying it would do so unfavourably, and 48% saying it would make no difference; 44% favouring a negative response to government retention of personal data and information against 38% for a positive one; and a suite of questions on privatisation that do a fair bit to explain what happened to Campbell Newman.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,707 comments on “Morgan: 57.5-42.5 to Labor”

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  2. confessions

    Its an electronic magazine collator. It was one of the first apps to show how a tablet specifically at the time an Ipad is.

    Any newspaper and magazine is put up on screen in the rich format you expect from a paper copy magazine

  3. Victoria,
    “Abbott and co have from day dot given contrasting messages. It is a bait and switch scam”. I guess Michelle Grattan, being new to this reporting thingy was unaware of how the Liberals operates. She just discovered it? What the…! Deliberate confusion and mixed messages have been their standard practice for a long time. It is what got them into government, along with the lies, of course.

  4. [Yes, but a billion on top of ptivate investments would give the boost to the economy that evryone except Hockey says we should have.]

    Yep, Lizzie, you are right. I was trying to add that he doesn’t even need to commit new money to get boost!

  5. LU

    You would think attracting big investment dollars to Australia would be a no brainer for any government.

    Not for climate deniers however

  9. “@AusHumanRights: Children in Detention report. Media conference at the Commission once the report is tabled, expected to be at 3.30 pm.”

    The report that members of the government have been trying to discredit with comments about Gillian Triggs. Should be a doozy

  22. The few anti Shorten PBers always criticising him here should take the opportunity to listen to the ClosingTheGap speech he just gave.

    Statesmanlike, full of appropriate content, and heartfelt.

    Then compare it to the speech of the faux PM, which was pedestrian, and had the usual aura of sham.

  23. Guytaur

    Yes, shorten even managed to insert some pleas to the Abbotteers to wind back the cuts to various Aboriginal services, yet still maintained a non political flavour to his speech.

  26. psyclaw

    I missed Shorten’s speech today. But the ones I have heard, have always been very good, especially compared to Abbott. There has always been something not quite right about Abbott. Still havent exactly figured it out

  29. psyclaw@1122

    The few anti Shorten PBers always criticising him here should take the opportunity to listen to the ClosingTheGap speech he just gave.

    Statesmanlike, full of appropriate content, and heartfelt.

    Then compare it to the speech of the faux PM, which was pedestrian, and had the usual aura of sham.

    Agree.

    I didn’t vote for him and had reservations about him, but he has done well and seems to be growing into the job. He has my support.

  30. victoria@1126

    psyclaw

    I missed Shorten’s speech today. But the ones I have heard, have always been very good, especially compared to Abbott. There has always been something not quite right about Abbott. Still havent exactly figured it out

    He’s nuts. Simple.

  31. [Yep, Lizzie, you are right. I was trying to add that he doesn’t even need to commit new money to get boost!]

    There is about $12 billion in investment being held up/ stopped. lots of jobs, in construction, manufacturing, maintenance admin, but no lets destroy the joint instead

  34. My sister has a 99 Camry wagon, grey on grey interior. She nicknamed it Bill (Shorten) because although it’s a bit boring it’s reliable.

    BTW I think Shorten is improving in his public speaking and has the measure of Abbott.

  35. j3

    Cool you can tell us about the new security procedures. The chabge of atmosphere with armed guards in the House as well as your obervations of what we do not see on the tv of politician intereactions.

    That is what you remember when you are back posting. Don’t expect you to be a reporter/journalist

  36. Bingo, Boris.

    Then there’s also the chance to re-tool the auto industry supply chain, to produce wind turbines or perhaps engines like this —
    […Terrajoule exploits an old-fashioned technology: “Universal Unaflow” reciprocating steam piston engine technology that reached its historical pinnacle in the 1930s. These engines were produced for decades by the dominant Skinner Steam Engine Company of Erie, Pennsylvania, and others. They embodied the technology sophistication of 300 years of steam engine evolution that drove the industrial revolution.]

  37. I know this strays into conspiracy theorist territory, but is it a coincidence that NSW terrorist threats are thwarted and the murdoch media have the exclusives on this seemingly every time the LNP is in the shit. There will be ‘stop the boats’ rhetoric in parliament this week and they’ll beat that drum right up to the NSW election – it is all they have really. Meanwhile refugees are dying on Manus or choosing to return to danger because we’ve treated them worse than the taliban et al and they know the PNG locals don’t want them and they and their kids will live in poverty under threat of rape and murder if they stay. All LNP/ALP voters can be proud of that.

  39. Humiliating outcome for Morrison in latest High Court immigration case handed down this morning.

    First the Minister does not make any decision as a ruse to keep someone in detention and then when the High Court orders a decision to be made, the minister makes an unlawful one. Finally because the HC does not seem to have faith in the Minister to get it right third time around, it directs the granting of the visa:

    [The plaintiff, a Pakistani national, entered Australia by sea at Christmas Island in May 2012. He did not have a visa and was, therefore, an “unlawful non-citizen” within the meaning of the Migration Act 1958 (Cth). By later amendments to the Act he became an “unauthorised maritime arrival”. In September 2012, the Minister permitted the plaintiff to make a valid application for a permanent protection visa. The plaintiff made an application for a protection visa which was refused by a delegate of the Minister. The plaintiff sought review of that decision by the Refugee Review Tribunal. The Tribunal remitted the plaintiff’s application to the Minister for reconsideration because the plaintiff was found to be a refugee. The Minister did not decide the plaintiff’s application. The plaintiff initiated proceedings in the High Court claiming that various regulatory and other steps which were thought to permit the Minister not to decide the plaintiff’s application were invalid or ineffective. In June 2014, the High Court held in favour of the plaintiff and ordered that the Minister consider and determine the plaintiff’s application for a permanent protection visa according to law.

    In July 2014, the Minister decided to refuse to grant the plaintiff a protection visa. The only reason for the refusal was that the Minister was not satisfied that the grant of a protection visa to the plaintiff “is in the national interest” because he was an unauthorised maritime arrival. The plaintiff challenged the validity of the “national interest” criterion on which the Minister relied and asked for orders directing the Minister to grant the plaintiff a permanent protection visa. The plaintiff also alleged that amendments made to the Act in late 2014 did not affect his right to a grant of that visa.

    The High Court unanimously found that the decision made by the Minister to refuse to grant the plaintiff a protection visa was not made according to law. The Court found that the Migration Act 1958 (Cth) stated exhaustively what visa consequences attached to being an unauthorised maritime arrival, and the Minister could not refuse an application for a visa only because the applicant was an unauthorised maritime arrival. The Court also held that the amendments to the Act did not affect the plaintiff’s right to obtain a permanent protection visa. It was not necessary for the Court to address the validity of the “national interest” criterion upon which the Minister relied in refusing the plaintiff’s application.

    Immediately following the Full Court making its orders answering the questions reserved for its opinion, French CJ made an order commanding the Minister to grant the plaintiff a permanent protection visa.]

  41. mikehilliard@1134

    My sister has a 99 Camry wagon, grey on grey interior. She nicknamed it Bill (Shorten) because although it’s a bit boring it’s reliable.

    BTW I think Shorten is improving in his public speaking and has the measure of Abbott.

    Yes, those skills can be learnt and I would not be surprised if he is receiving some coaching. If so, then it is all to his credit.

  44. victoria

    [There has always been something not quite right about Abbott. Still haven’t exactly figured it out]
    The insincerity ? Always hard to listen to a speech when you can’t believe the speaker means/believes/feels what they say. Tones frequently gets the trifecta during his speeches.

  45. J341983

    [I decided to get a ticket for Question Time this afternoon … should continue to be fun.]

    Say hello to my daughter who will be one of 56 year sixers shuffled in to see the HoR in action

  47. I notice Katherine Murphy on Guardian site doing her best to talk Tony Abbott up – now a great friend of Aboriginal people, sincere, blah, blah, blah. A few days ago she was saying how surprised she was that he would become so unpopular.

  49. SF

    I get where you are coming from. One coincidence yes. All the time however is a different matter.

    However my best argument against the conspiracy theory is that this government has been in the brown stuff almost from election day.

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