Courtesy of the Seven Network, ReachTEL plays the beloved leadership crisis card of gauging voting intention under the current leader and the alternative. The results under Tony Abbott’s leadership are slightly worse than in the poll taken just before Australia Day, with Labor up 1.2% to 41.4% and the Coalition down 1.3%, with the Greens and Palmer United all but unchanged at 11.2% and 2.7%. Two-party preferred moves one point in Labor’s favour to 55-45. The kickers are the findings that the Coalition would be leading 54-46 under Malcolm Turnbull and 51-49 under Julie Bishop – with the usual caveat added that such questions present partisan opponents with an opportunity to lodge a tactical vote against the incumbent. A head-to-head question rates Malcolm Turnbull ahead of Julie Bishop 56.5-43.5, but with Bishop having a 54.4-45.6 edge among Coalition voters. The poll was conducted last night from a sample of 3502.
[HOW on earth did it come to this? How did Tony Abbott’s prime ministership derail so quickly, and is recovery possible? He has been around long enough to know better, to learn from the successes and failures of those he has met along the way. Abbott was, after all, John Hewson’s press secretary during the 1993 election campaign; he was a backbencher who witnessed, albeit from the other side of the chamber, the declining fortunes of Paul Keating in the lead-up to the 1996 election; and he was a senior minister at the cabinet table with John Howard from 2001 to 2007.]
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/columnists/long-life-in-politics-and-still-no-lessons-learnt/story-fn53lw5p-1227211011598
the liberal MPs are grappling with the leadership change cos in effect it means a total failure of their agenda to date. When a new leadership team is installed, what is going to be the policy direction of the party? And will the majority of the coalition MPs be on board?
Listening to Cormann say he expected a secret ballot for the spill, as this was the convention, makes me think that the fix is in.
Of the 33 ministers and parl secs “bound by cabinet solidarity”, yes maybe in their public utterances, but in a secret ballot even the Bromancing Bilson’s pencil may quiver over which box to cross.
How’s it going for the bloke who wanted to remembered as:
[The Instafucta PM?]
Well on the way to achieving his dream, I’d say.
Abbott supporters reckon he has 70 votes out of 102
[Whether Abbott survives next week or not, he is a dead man walking. The divisions and discontent cannot be papered over any more. Unhappiness with his leadership has been prised wide open for the public to see. Not that voters needed such exposure to the internals of party organisational manoeuvring to be convinced Abbott isn’t up to being prime minister. The polls have long shown how unpopular he is. More recently, incompetence and mocking have been added to this equation.]
Yep.
Hi kezza
Are your lapwings still there?
Frydenberg speaking to Kieran Gilbert. He says that the spill motion will be defeated on Tuesday
victoria:
It all comes down to whether a secret vote is allowed for the leadership spill motion.
Fulvio @126 you have to be made of stern stuff to spend any amount of time in Bolt’s fetid bog of hate. Although calling out his deliberate misrepresentations and outright stupidity is not a bad way to spend an afternoon. It’s truly satisfying seeing Bolt crumbling before our eyes as his man Abbott goes down. He can see his influence and therefore his worth waning with the fall of Abbott, their fortunes (in both senses) are very much intertwined.
sprocket_
If the secret ballot has more than 102 minus 33 then cabinet solidarity has been busted.
Frydenberg maintains that sticking by Abbott is the best course of action. That goes for Cormann as well.
[“Abbott supporters reckon he has 70 votes out of 102”]
Almost the same as Gillard’s 71 votes votes out of 102 in the 2012 spill. 🙂
victoria
Frydenberg annoyed me yesterday. Asked about Tony’s gaffes, including Prince Philip’s knighthood, his answer was : “Nobody died.” And then compared it to “Pink Batts”. No real defence of Dear Leader, just smart comebacks to the questioner.
I am wondering what Abbott will do if he is dumped as PM. Will he take it on the chin, or choose to wreck the joint?
Hi lizzie
Yep, they’re still here, sly-stepping about, and keeping everything/one/animal at bay.
I’m not worrying about the now – as Roger Bottomley (I think, thanks for that info roger, had logged out when I saw your comment) said they’re pretty good at looking after themselves.
lizzie
Frydenberg has stuck to his script that this govt has done some really good things and Abbott’s leadership has been good despite some issues with the last budget blah blah blah
Meanwhile the LNP is electing its new leader today.
https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/national/a/26220528/lnp-to-vote-on-new-qld-leader/
[Abbott supporters reckon he has 70 votes out of 102]
Then why is he scared of a vote?
Whatever the leadership team of the coalition, they all signed off on the budget, which included changes to medicare and uni funding, and cuts to ABC and SBS, They are all responsible. Therefore will any new leadership team dump everything?
So Bishop will support Abbott in a spill but will run as Turnbull’s deputy if Mr T prevails? That’s got to be a chink in her armour through which Labor can stick and twist a spear. The behind the scenes stuff will come to light leaked by a loser just as it did when Gillard defeated Rudd. Lots of fun to come.
vic
[I am wondering what Abbott will do if he is dumped as PM. Will he take it on the chin, or choose to wreck the joint?]
Depends who beats him.
If it’s Turnbull, he’d probably lose interest, and leave parly altogether, with all the perks a PM gets.
But, woebetide if Julie Bishop gets the nod. His ego couldn’t take another woman defeating him. Fireworks all over the place.
Speaking of Julie Bishop, she’d be mad not to take a shot at the PMship. Okay, she’s been a miserable failure in domestic portfolios and would probably be equally as bad as PM, but why not go for the top job, and get the after-PMship perks?
mimhoff
Hard to know what is the truth. The Abbott crowd are out and about trying to influence backbenchers by suggesting that Abbott has the numbers etc
[Peter van Onselen @vanOnselenP · 44s 45 seconds ago
It’s a pretty simple equation. If MBT runs he wins (close), if he doesn’t the spill fails but wounds PM for a bigger MBT win down the track.]
kezza2
I am not convinced that Abbott would leave parliament. It is the only life he knows
Goodness me. Abbott and JBishop are at a function together. Granted they are separated by another MP who is in the middle of them. They are all smiles!!
Good Morning
I think the anti Abbott camp is talking secret ballot because they know Abbott. In a secret ballot its all shadow btoxing and very hard to single people out for revenge. Different story with a show of hands.
Its not indicative of the numbers in the ballot.
And this is worth a look
@sprocket___: Harsh, but fair artistic comment #BaldArchies #auspol #libspill #KeepTony http://t.co/7UuCKAFiz7
Lizzie @ 164:
[Frydenberg…Asked about Tony’s gaffes, including Prince Philip’s knighthood, his answer was “Nobody died.” And then compared it to “Pink Batts”.]
No doubt the interviewer, with a full understanding of the facts, challenged Frydenberg to explain the two asylum seekers deaths that can be clearly linked to the maladministration and utter incompetence of the Abbott government and that “pink bats” was on any measure a successful program which has resulted in real savings in the cost of household energy, a 4x reduction in the rate of insulation related fires and a halving in the death rate of installers.
kezza
If they have a nest (although their breeding season is probably over – although who knows with the changing climate) they will defend it ferociously, but if no nest, and hassled by dogs or vehicles, they may move on overnight.
A pair lived for several years on a wide median strip beside the Maroondah Highway. As Roger Bottomley said, they are pretty good at looking after themselves.
Their main problem is that their nests are just a shallow scrape and vulnerable to foxes, dogs (and mowers). Magpies certainly get very aggressive if their territory has been entered. If they did happen to nest on the nature strip, a barrier to keep away intruders (including humans) might be helpful. They are not considered endangered at present.
[Samantha Maiden @samanthamaiden · 7m 7 minutes ago
Ruddock says a matter for PM whether it was show of hands or a secret ballot but notes can ministers want secret ballot @weekendtoday]
I don’t believe Abbott will allow a secret ballot.
Alan S
Yes, of course. We can always rely on our media to counteract bullshit with the facts :/
confessions
If Abbott goes for a show of hands, he will garner more resentment against him
[Hard to know what is the truth. The Abbott crowd are out and about trying to influence backbenchers by suggesting that Abbott has the numbers etc]
Maybe… if there’s no spill motion then Abbott can go on pretending it all never happened.
If there is a spill and Abbott wins, then the challengers would leave the ministry and then they wouldn’t have “cabinet solidarity” as a weak reason for backing him.
victoria:
Yes, but remember first and foremost he’s a wreck the joint kinda guy.
vic
[It’s the only life he knows.]
Well, not really. Abbott’s lagged on the taxpayer for most of his life, sure.
Except for stints as a journo, and as a cement mixer (coupla years at most).
But, lookee here:
[KEVIN RUDD $200,000 pension plus estimated $300,000-a-year office and travel costs
JULIA GILLARD $200,000 pension plus estimated $300,000-a-year office and travel costs
JOHN HOWARD $250,000 pension plus $300,000 a year in office and travel costs.
PAUL KEATING $140,000-a-year office, travel, phone costs + pension
BOB HAWKE $130,000-a-year in office, travel, phone costs + pension
MALCOLM FRASER $220,000-a-year office, travel, phone + pension
GOUGH WHITLAM $125,000-a-year office, travel, phone + pension]
Imagine how much time he could spend on his bike with that income?
Source: http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/julia-gillard-and-kevin-rudd-demand-bigger-perks-for-former-prime-ministers/story-fni0cx12-1226766891140
“@political_alert: PM Tony Abbott, Deputy PM Warren Truss and FM Julie Bishop have announced international flights for Townsville Airport from 1 March #auspol”
I guess we shall see what happens on Tuesday. if Abbott happens to retain the leadership, he could become even more of a bully with his colleagues. How wonderment
“@lipporocks: Abbott: I’m confident this govt elected to end the chaos of the Labor years @SkyNewsAust #libspill
”“@annabelcrabb: “Despite some distractions, I am just getting on with government.”
”
“@SamDickfos: Julie Bishop not nodding when Abbott talks about #libspill.”
“@SamDickfos: PM says leadership shouldn’t be like Game of Thrones. #libspill”
The revelation that JulieB suggested that Tony needed some help in writing his Press Club speech and he rejected her assistance “with fireworks” shows that he will never, ever, be a consultative team player and all his sports metaphors are hollow. Added to which he doesn’t trust her (she’s a woman and he can’t understand her).
Let’s just admit that nothing he ever says is the truth.
“@_AdamTodd: Abbott says it’s “my anticipation” there will be a secret ballot on the spill motion, not a show of hands #libspill”
Funny how for years the Tories demanded secret ballots for unions to stop the leadership intimidating the members.
What is Abbott afraid of? He might lose?
“@bevanshields85: Bishop: “My role as deputy is to support the leader, not to change the leader. I support the PM. That’s the role of deputy” #auspol”
Looking at all of this from a million miles away, I get the distinct impression Tone will survive and Malcolm may not even run. Who is counting his numbers? Who is knocking heads? Looks like amateur hour.
If there is a spill of the leaader, are all other positions spilled?
[Funny how for years the Tories demanded secret ballots for unions to stop the leadership intimidating the members.]
Yep.
[Latika Bourke @latikambourke · 5m 5 minutes ago
PM Tony Abbott says if the #Libspill is defeated he will take it as a ‘vote of confidence’ in the current leadership team.]
Yeah, right.
lizzie
It’s a bit difficult to see if they’ve made a nest (if you could call it that!!) because they’re such patrol-merchants.
But if they have made a nest (if you could call it that!! – such a strange evolutionary practice, they must have something else going for them) they’ve only got till this Thursday before they’re mowed out of existence, unless I manage to catch the guy who mows my neighbour’s nature strip before he starts up his chaff-cutter.
lizzie:
The deputy leader.