Courtesy of the Seven Network, ReachTEL plays the beloved leadership crisis card of gauging voting intention under the current leader and the alternative. The results under Tony Abbott’s leadership are slightly worse than in the poll taken just before Australia Day, with Labor up 1.2% to 41.4% and the Coalition down 1.3%, with the Greens and Palmer United all but unchanged at 11.2% and 2.7%. Two-party preferred moves one point in Labor’s favour to 55-45. The kickers are the findings that the Coalition would be leading 54-46 under Malcolm Turnbull and 51-49 under Julie Bishop – with the usual caveat added that such questions present partisan opponents with an opportunity to lodge a tactical vote against the incumbent. A head-to-head question rates Malcolm Turnbull ahead of Julie Bishop 56.5-43.5, but with Bishop having a 54.4-45.6 edge among Coalition voters. The poll was conducted last night from a sample of 3502.
Laocoon @ 93: Bruce became PM at 39. Along with other Canberra schoolkids, I was marched outside to watch his ashes being scattered over the city after he died in 1967. We were expecting something spectacular, like a mushroom cloud of ash in the sky. In fact, all we saw was a high flying Cessna. Very disappointing. I think there will be a bigger bang if Mr Abbott’s ashes are scattered on Tuesday.
Raaraa 84
If I remember correctly from 2009, if more than two people run, a ballot is conducted and the person coming third is eliminated. Hockey was eliminated in 2009, then a ballot took place between Turnbull and Abbott. I’m pretty sure that’s how it ran!
I can understand why the right are so upset that a stupid thing like knighting a prince but is the right that went rabid, the left just sat back and laughed.
WarrenPeace@103
Yup, according to them, it was all about the knighting. Nothing else could have contributed all these problems.
WarrenPeace 103
I can understand why the right are so upset that a stupid thing like knighting a prince could bring down a PM but it is the right that went rabid, the left just sat back and laughed.
collapse of Ukrainian Curreny
___________________
Yesterday their curreny collapsed by 35% in one day…that makes the ADollars problems look small
The Ukr banks are out of foreign currency and the nation is now completely bankrupt…and needing vast sums right NOW from the Euro zone
The local industries were heavily depended on Russian markets ,and their abundant food crops,vegies etc,once sent to Russia are not saleable in the Euro states
The French and German leaders are there tomorrow.to urge them to seek a settlement wih Russia,in view of the crisis of their economy…Kerry speaks of giving UKR more weapons ..which makes a clash with Russian more likely and the Euro leaders are said to fear the UKR will be the site of a Russian-US conflict(call that WW3)
see article from US source
http://www.moonofalabama.org/
Tones and Joe are battling the economic headwinds from Europe as best they can.
WarrenPeace
[I can understand why the right are so upset that a stupid thing like knighting a prince but is the right that went rabid, the left just sat back and laughed.]
I have no problem with “knights”. Many republics give knighthoods: Italy, France, Peru etc etc
I would like to see real heroic Australians given knighthoods by a non-political representative body: heroic soldiers, cleaning ladies, etc etc
paaptsef @ 107
[Tones and Joe are battling the economic headwinds from Europe as best they can.]
Given the difference in intellect and judgment, I can understand why Tones and Joe are finding it a bigger challenge to deal with the potential collapse of the Ukraine economy than Kev and Wayne found in dealing with the potential collapse of the US economy.
deblonay
I would not be surprised if Putin was quite ready for a WW3.
He maybe sees himself as the new Stalin fighting for the Motherland….. ruthless regard for deaths.
The EU has an admirable desire to prevent conflict but a possible tendency to wring their hands and allow things to escalate.
‘fess
I am rather too rapidly approaching the view that the 60s are indeed the new 40s 😉
Putin likes the the iron-fisted rule that Stalin had, but none of the economic policy. Not that it’s any better. It’s a monopoly by the oligarchy loyal to Putin.
On PM today, there was an interview with a critic of Putin. Didn’t get his name. The country looks like it’s in financial shambles with the embargo, oil prices and ruble deflation, and the only thing keeping the people at home and not protesting is because of the rivalry with Ukraine.
[ Given the difference in intellect and judgment, I can understand why Tones and Joe are finding it a bigger challenge to deal with the potential collapse of the Ukraine economy than Kev and Wayne found in dealing with the potential collapse of the US economy. ]
Bah! I guess you have signed up to the wild leftist theory that the GFC was a major economic event.
A sad cry from Greece…
[The economic measures forced upon Greece have been wholly ineffective. They were not intended to deal with corporate tax evasion and corruption, and nor were they designed to facilitate economic growth. They were rooted instead in austerity, dramatic and systematic job cuts, drastic reductions in salaries and pensions, and huge tax hikes for ordinary working people. In the 5 years of Troika dominance, unemployment has risen, officially, to 27%. Youth unemployment approaches 60%. One out of four Greek citizens live below the poverty line. Our national debt, as a promotion of our GDP, has risen from 124% to 175% of GDP. And new loans have been offered to the Greek state to enable us to pay existing ones, thus creating new debts that are impossible for us ever to repay.]
[I am asking you, through your creation, through the gentle power of song, which has always been the weapon of our art though centuries, and also through your speaking, your words, your public presence, to stand in solidarity with the urgent, difficult, dignified and just struggle of the Greek people, which is also the struggle of every European citizen.
Thank you,
Alkinoos Ioannidis]
http://bellacaledonia.org.uk/2015/02/06/a-letter-from-athens/
Tones would kick arse at fixing Greece
Tones would kick arse but fix nothing…
[I am asking you, through your creation, through the gentle power of song, which has always been the weapon of our art though centuries, and also through your speaking, your words, your public presence, to stand in solidarity with the urgent, difficult, dignified and just struggle of the Greek people, which is also the struggle of every European citizen.]
LOLOLOLLOLLOLL
Yeah that’s gonna help.
Tones would put Sir Prince Phillip on the job
Game theory tells us that Abbott should resign now. Unfortunately for the Liberals, Game Theory also assumes that the players are intelligent and rational.
[matt31
Posted Saturday, February 7, 2015 at 12:17 am | Permalink
Raaraa 84
If I remember correctly from 2009, if more than two people run, a ballot is conducted and the person coming third is eliminated. Hockey was eliminated in 2009, then a ballot took place between Turnbull and Abbott. I’m pretty sure that’s how it ran!
]
In this sort of ballot voting continues until one candidate receives more than 50% off the vote.
After each round the person receiving the lowest number of votes is dropped and a new ballot is taken.
Often that involves continuing ballots until you get to the final two, but
if one candidate gets more than 50% in an earlier round then voting stops and that person is elected.
Australia’s 10 year bond rate yield is now up to 2.51%
Market appears to like the idea of a change in PM
Personally I think we should knight all Australian citizens – maybe after each person votes for the first time.
I’m sure the English would love having to call all Australians Sir or Dame. It might even impress the Americans.
[Market appears to like the idea of a change in PM]
It is not the “market” God that likes the idea of anything, it is the tiny group of financial manipulaters……………strangly, in our 21st century world, given “divinity”, …… like Nero, in ancient Rome, but witrh massive more power.
There’s already a Loon party in Autralia.
They’re in government already.
122
There is a certain appeal to that idea. Hyperinflation of knighthoods.
Look, I know I shouldn’t have, but I have to admit to spending the last hour or so reading the comments on Bolt’s blog.
I never knew such deluded, pig ignorant, unstable, vicious, abusive deficients could possibly be gathered in one forum at the same time.
After the initial culture shock however I began to appreciate the black humour of being immersed in a world where lies are truth, black is white, idiocy is intelligence, weakness is strength.
I suppose I’ll go blind now…
swamprat
I’m aware of the speculative element of the market but still looking at the market indicates that people are not seeing Australia has having increased risk from the potential change in leadership.
Tony Abbott may not sell his RRs to others but the R Sole is surely screwed.
🙂 👿
Sorry William for my poor Taste.
Luckily over the next week there will be far more important things to comment on.
As the leadership spill approaches I find myself thinking the unthinkable: Carn the Mad Monk! 😀
[Fulvio Sammut
Posted Saturday, February 7, 2015 at 2:17 am | Permalink
Look, I know I shouldn’t have, but I have to admit to spending the last hour or so reading the comments on Bolt’s blog.
…
I suppose I’ll go blind now…
]
I hope you showered before you came back to us.
Daily Nett_NEWS++™ by @Otiose94 http://bit.ly/1BEAK4C #auspol http://bit.ly/1nAtjp1 oㄥO
#libspill, #abbott Hoarse Trojan by @davpope © http://bit.ly/1EMc5P9
Swampy
[I would like to see real heroic Australians given knighthoods by a non-political representative body: heroic soldiers, cleaning ladies, etc etc]
As an egalitarian, I am against the idea of state-declared heroes, or indeed, heroism in general. I have no problem with recognition of the contributions people make to community but giving them titles as a result seems to me at once offensive and ludicrous.
… And that’s before we even get to the nefarious reasons for a regime to make such awards.
Turnbull is too disliked by most of his party to probably get the nod, so Bishop remains a more likely alternative. A 51-49 lead for her would be close to the position Gillard ended up with in election 2010 after ousting Rudd
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
Peter Martin prosecutes the economic case for changing leaders.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economic-case-for-changing-leaders-20150206-1385jc.html
Peter Hartcher revisits the first Abbott vs Turnbull cage match. Abbott has been the accidental leader.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/the-last-time-malcolm-turnbull-and-tony-abbott-squared-off-20150206-1381qf.html
Hartcher reckons he has the inside goss on how the PM/Deputy link was shattered.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/the-inside-story-of-how-the-liberal-leadership-duo-of-tony-abbott-and-julie-bishop-cracked-20150206-13884m.html
Lenore Taylor – Time is running out for Abbott’s chaotic and dysfunctional government.
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/feb/06/time-is-running-out-for-tony-abbotts-chaotic-and-dysfunctional-government
Paul Bongiorno says Abbott has been burying his head in the quicksand. He doesn’t fancy Abbott’s chances.
http://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2015/02/07/abbott-burying-his-head-the-quicksand/14232276001459#.VNUZomiUeSo
Michelle Grattan says the government is doing a fine imitation of Labor chaos.
https://theconversation.com/liberals-do-a-fine-imitation-of-labor-chaos-37287
Mark Kenny – Abbott enters the killing zone.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/spill-motion-tony-abbotts-leadership-enters-the-killing-zone-20150206-137ygj.html
Jacqui Maley on how Abbott dudded women this week.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/paid-parental-leave-policy-ditched-did-the-women-of-australia-just-get-dudded-20150206-13607i.html
John Birmingham previews the cage match.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/prime-minister-tony-abbott-ready-to-knock-out-allcomers-in-title-fight-with-liberal-amounts-of-repetition-20150206-136×88.html
Speaking of cage matches the tussle in the NSW police inquiry is a beauty.
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/senior-cop-v-senior-cop–nsws-deputy-commissioners–at-war-20150206-137bmz.html
Section 2 . . .
David Marr says Abbott is in trouble because he never let go of the junkyard dog persona.
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/feb/06/tony-abbott-is-in-trouble-because-he-never-let-the-junkyard-dog-go
A long essay from Mike Seccombe on political leadership style.
http://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2015/02/07/leadership-style-cruels-tony-abbott-campbell-newman-and-co/14232276001465#.VNUZB2iUeSo
Why it’s time for Abbott to step aside.
http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2015/02/06/tony-abbott-step/
Did Abbott verbal Mesma?
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbott-comes-out-fighting-as-leadership-crisis-heats-up-20150206-1389ba.html
Sophie in The Saturday Paper asks if Turnbull overcome the doubts harboured within the party.
http://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2015/02/07/malcolm-turnbull-awaits-the-leadership/14232276001470
Tim Ferguson with a satirical leak of Turnbull’s application letter for PM.
http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2015/02/06/turnbull-job-application-prime-minister/
On this form our Minister for Defence could well invade New Zealand!
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/defence-minister-kevin-andrews-in-julia-gillard-leadership-gaffe-20150206-1388ei.html
Why Mike Baird should take the lead regarding disclosure of federal political donations.
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/latest-disclosures-show-why-mike-baird-needs-to-take-the-lead-on-federal-donations-reform-20150206-136grl.html
What’s in store for Hockey if Abbott is deposed?
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/what-will-happen-to-treasurer-joe-hockey-if-tony-abbott-is-deposed-20150206-1388lx.html
Abbott vows to stare them down. Yeah, good luck Tone.
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/feb/06/tony-abbott-vows-to-stare-down-campaign-to-end-his-leadership
Section 3 . . .
Kathy Jackson flames out as her string of excuses fail to prevent the setting of a trial date.
https://independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/up-in-flames-kathy-jacksons-bid-to-delay-federal-court-snuffed-out,7344
The AFP’s role in ceding Bali Nine’s Chan and Sukumaran to death row.
http://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2015/02/07/afp-role-ceding-bali-nines-chan-and-sukumaran-death-row/14232276001471#.VNUaVmiUeSo
Stephen Koukoulas – Where to now for the RBA and the $A?
http://thekouk.com/blog/where-to-for-the-rba-and-the-aud.html#.VNUawGiUeSo
Bob Ellis’s predictions.
http://www.ellistabletalk.com/2015/02/06/a-prediction-17/
The ATO renews its lease but the building is empty. One for Senate Estimates perhaps?
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/public-service/ato-renews-office-lease-only-to-leave-it-empty-20150205-1344d1.html
EastWest – the PPP from hell.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/comment-and-analysis/east-west-the-publicprivate-project-from-hell-20150206-137mj5.html
Michael Gordon – Waiting for Malcolm.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/waiting-for-malcolm-20150206-137xiu.html
Abbott and Hockey can’t deliver on the economy or the budget.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-editorial/tony-abbott-and-joe-hockey-cant-deliver-on-economybudget-20150206-137mxo.html
Why NewsPoll and Galaxy got the Queensland election result so wrong and Morgan got it right.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/viva-gary-morgan-and-down-with-corrupt-polls,7342
Section 4 . . .
Section 3 . . .
Kathy Jackson flames out as her string of excuses fail to prevent the setting of a trial date.
https://independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/up-in-flames-kathy-jacksons-bid-to-delay-federal-court-snuffed-out,7344
The AFP’s role in ceding Bali Nine’s Chan and Sukumaran to death row.
http://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2015/02/07/afp-role-ceding-bali-nines-chan-and-sukumaran-death-row/14232276001471#.VNUaVmiUeSo
Stephen Koukoulas – Where to now for the RBA and the $A?
http://thekouk.com/blog/where-to-for-the-rba-and-the-aud.html#.VNUawGiUeSo
Bob Ellis’s predictions.
http://www.ellistabletalk.com/2015/02/06/a-prediction-17/
The ATO renews its lease but the building is empty. One for Senate Estimates perhaps?
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/public-service/ato-renews-office-lease-only-to-leave-it-empty-20150205-1344d1.html
EastWest – the PPP from hell.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/comment-and-analysis/east-west-the-publicprivate-project-from-hell-20150206-137mj5.html
Michael Gordon – Waiting for Malcolm.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/waiting-for-malcolm-20150206-137xiu.html
Abbott and Hockey can’t deliver on the economy or the budget.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-editorial/tony-abbott-and-joe-hockey-cant-deliver-on-economybudget-20150206-137mxo.html
Why NewsPoll and Galaxy got the Queensland election result so wrong and Morgan got it right.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/viva-gary-morgan-and-down-with-corrupt-polls,7342
Oops – Here’s section 4 . . .
Alan Moir. Abbott’s getting support from the wrong places.
Cathy Wilcox and NSW architectural inspiration.
John Spooner with what is in front of Turnbull.
Abbott faces the press with Ron Tandberg.
David Pope continues to enjoy himself.
Mark Knight returns Abbott to his boxing days.
Morning all. Beautiful day here in Adelaide, blue sky, birds singing, and the thought of Tony Abbott in Kirribilly, desperately phoning any friends, in the hope that they are still friends.
Despite the parade of loyal ministrs lat night, those asking for a secret ballot and loyally promising not to vote for a spill are effectively urging their fello MPs to vote for a spill, because Abbott will be gone in any secret ballot. And in a secret ballot, there can be no retribution, only bitter tears, as a very strange man realises he will no longer be living in a mandion on Sydney harbour.
Did Abbott ever live in the Lodge? Is he unique inthat respect?
BK
Thanks for all the links as usual. Tim Ferguson’s application letters are very funny. The one from Morrison is brilliant.
Regarding this poll, I do not think the voting intention bit means much. Turnbull will win mainly because a whole lot of NSW Liberals are scared about the potential damage to Baird in the state election. A loss of government there could lead to yet more embarrassing inquiries.
Regarding the EW Link compensation debate, Maiden is talking rubbish in this article.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/comment-and-analysis/east-west-the-publicprivate-project-from-hell-20150206-137mj5.html
A government has no obligation to pay back fees for internal arrangements within a private bidding entity. They are entitled to be paid back direct costs, nothing more. The whole justification for the excessive fees in PPPs is that they are a reward for risk. Cancellation was a known risk of this project. The bankers want to both take the risk fee, and suffer no risk based loss. Nonsense!
This case also highlights just how dubious the fees in these PPPs have become. A $6 billion project has a $1.2 billion success fee??!!! So the price (and the tolls) get inflated 20% just so that the financiers skim it off the top. PPP scams have to stop. This is one of the worst.
If Daniel Andrews gives into this nonsense claim, he will be off to a very bad start, as a very weak Victorian premier.
Looking forward to Turnbull’s first presser as PM being littered with references to “Conrovia”.
On a more serious note, the fact that he hasn’t been able to stop himself – hasn’t even tried – attacking Conroy on every possible occasion, even ones which didn’t in the least require it, when Conroy has long gone from the Ministry in question, points to something very strange about Turnbull.
Turnbull could have/should have taken the attitude that he had beaten Conroy – that he now had the Ministry that Conroy once had, and that his opponent was now Jason Clare. Apart from the occasional references to the ‘mess left by the past Minister’ that should have been it.
Furthermore, there’s simply no point attacking Conroy, particularly in the HoR. Conroy is scarcely going to get upset by Turnbull’s criticisms. They have nothing to do with his present portfolio. They can’t change what Conroy has already achieved (good or bad).
This obsessive behaviour of Turnbull’s is suggestive about his personality. He can’t let things go. He not only has to be the winner, but he has to destroy the enemy totally (and his inability to destroy Conroy obviously eats at him). This is far more important to him than dignity or common sense.
He lacks self awareness and discipline.
There’s also an element of snobbery here, too — how can a man of his intellect be overshadowed by a spiv like Conroy? It’s unthinkable. I mean, the man didn’t even go the right schools.
Another insightfull article from Mike Seccombe, with warning to Mike Baird
http://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2015/02/07/leadership-style-cruels-tony-abbott-campbell-newman-and-co/14232276001465#.VNUta0dXeK0
Zoom
I think there are many good reasons to attack Conroy for his past performance. Arguably Labor’s worst minister, Conroy saw Australia waste billions advancing the NBN hardly at all over seven years. It was not meant to be a work for the dole scheme for cabling contractors. At best, Conroy did nothing effective to stop it.
Morning bludgers
Switched over to Sky. They are doing leadership
[Did Abbott ever live in the Lodge? Is he unique inthat respect]
Certainly not – although maybe if you only count the modern PMs.
Poor liberal spivs. They are trying to convince the electorate that they are not Labor and will not dump the sitting PM
They are also doing their best to convince everyone that JBishop and MTurnbull are loyal to the PM. Yeah whatever
Abbott will be gone on Tuesday. There is no conceivable way that they will let this go on up to the NSW election.