Courtesy of the Seven Network, ReachTEL plays the beloved leadership crisis card of gauging voting intention under the current leader and the alternative. The results under Tony Abbott’s leadership are slightly worse than in the poll taken just before Australia Day, with Labor up 1.2% to 41.4% and the Coalition down 1.3%, with the Greens and Palmer United all but unchanged at 11.2% and 2.7%. Two-party preferred moves one point in Labor’s favour to 55-45. The kickers are the findings that the Coalition would be leading 54-46 under Malcolm Turnbull and 51-49 under Julie Bishop – with the usual caveat added that such questions present partisan opponents with an opportunity to lodge a tactical vote against the incumbent. A head-to-head question rates Malcolm Turnbull ahead of Julie Bishop 56.5-43.5, but with Bishop having a 54.4-45.6 edge among Coalition voters. The poll was conducted last night from a sample of 3502.
Confessions
[Front page of tomorrow’s Courier Mail:
https://twitter.com/wrongdorey/status/563649234742673409%5D
So Murdoch is swinging behind Turnbull.
He should have done it ages ago. He is more a neo-liberal dream than Abbott ever was.
vic – I’m not a Labor party strategist. That’s what Oakes is reporting he’s getting from Labor, that’s all.
teh_drewski@40
Or showing turnbull is full of crap and not any different from other tories, eg –
[ My favourite press release of Turnbull’s is where he defends the interests of the 1 per cent while condemning the ALP means testing of the private health insurance rebate.
I say leave him where he is, in the party full of those who argue the market not the community should determine important social questions. ]
http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/3897900.html
IF he becomes PM his problem is still going to be the electorally death reaking policies stuck around his neck.
Above all they centre on the fraudulent “budget emergency” about which the tories have done little and then to those who are unlikely to vote tory.
Thats been electoral poison.
[I expect he won’t allow a secret ballot, but we shall see.]
If he does that he will just be delaying the inevitable.
How hilarious would the Coalition look if they just drag this out until after the NSW election!
Giving the new leader / new treasurer just 1 month to do the budget!
Turnbull’s too sharp an economic operator to bother with the budget emergency line. It did the job out of Tony’s mouth – got the Coalition elected – but Turnbull will find a new narrative on economic policy.
They’re already talking about not increasing cuts in the next budget because the economy is too weak, even before all the leadershit.
Boerwar
[Yep. The big issue is what the bad faith risk premium should be. The New Drachma would be trashed on the basis that the greeks have absolutely no commitment to economic reform and a major commitment to fooling other folks into bankrolling them.]
To Boerwar, the economy is not a mechanism to meet human needs but a test of calvinist rectitude.
Hopefully, the Mediterranean peoples will always “fail” the calvinist test.
teh drewski
No worries. Just questioning what Oakes is reporting. 🙂
[If he does that he will just be delaying the inevitable.]
Yep. I still can’t understand why Credlin hasn’t resigned. Talk about delaying the inevitable!
As to the NSW election, Abbott promised this week to do a whistle stop ‘consulting’ tour of Liberal electorates. I said before that Baird and the NSW Libs must be thrilled at the prospect of the unpopular Abbott potentially swinging his ass their way, smack, bang in an election campaign!
Hilarious.
teh_drewski@55
No doubt, but thats a huge backdown and sees the budget deficit and debt blowing out.
The born to rule left in a shambles, economy, unemployment getting worse etc.
Lets see them talk their way out of that.
Who will the new Treasurer be if it pans out?
Rowan Dean on Sky earlier suggested that Turnbull would need to go to an early election
Morrison.
[Rowan Dean on Sky earlier suggested that Turnbull would need to go to an early election]
This would be stupid.
Crikey’s own Bernard Keane is hitching himself to the Andrew Robb for Treasurer bandwagon, but most of the other speculation I’ve seen is for Morrison.
Glenn
Maybe.
No economic background though.
Worse he is seen and very easily portrayed as an extremist even a nutter and a bully.
That job – trying to convince voters that tories are not all arseholes just is not the right ‘fit’.
Needs someone moderate and credible.
Should either Abbott or Turnbull call a snap election in the next few weeks and lose it (likely), then that would have to be one of the shortest government reigns in Australia’s history. It would make Napthine’s and Newman’s stints seem like an eternity.
[Morrison.]
And on that:
[The Piping Shrike @Piping_Shrike · 2h 2 hours ago
If I was a serious leadership contender, I’d be backing the PM while making sure I was the Anyone But Turnbull candidate if he went.]
I think Morrison would be a disaster as Treasurer.
Worse than Hockey, who is the worst since Howard.
Victoria
[Rowan Dean on Sky earlier suggested that Turnbull would need to go to an early election]
It is obvious that, given the toxic state of the LNP that Turnbull is the only option and given the potential conflict between Turnbull and the idiot right that controls the LNP, an early election would be the best way to go.
That would allow conflicts to be papered over and it is quite possible that Shorten will not compete well against Turnbull in his ‘honeymoon’ and with the media we have and the ALP suicide tendency, I think it’s likely Turnbull would get back in.
Then the problems would begin again with instability as the idiot right flexes its power and undermines Turnbull…. on it goes…. 🙂
victoria@60
Sounds like an abbott sore loser already trying to poison the well.
Did he say no need for a secret ballot as well 🙂
Very dumb political position either way. Half a term still.
[Should either Abbott or Turnbull call a snap election in the next few weeks and lose it (likely), then that would have to be one of the shortest government reigns in Australia’s history. It would make Napthine’s and Newman’s stints seem like an eternity.]
It would also shorten the term of the next Parliament because:
– If it was a DD, the terms of the senators would be backdated to last July
– Otherwise, it’d have to be a House only election, with another election held next year, or just a half Senate election.
Tones 2.0 will be teh awesome
dave
I disagree.
If Turnbull wins he can do a big deal of stopping medicare co-payments etc, stopping Uni deregulation etc, reverse all unpopular measures, give a few rousing silver-tongued speeches……. (paper over fraudband)…….blah blah blah
Murdoch/Sky/ABC/Fairfaxwill love him…..
Can he do those things, though, swamprat? In *that* Liberal party room?
paaptsef@71
Again, either way the tories are going to be hating each others guts even more than normal and coming after each other with knives. No matter the outcome.
No matter what they say.
Then there are the real nutters – the nats.
Turnbull 2.0 would be nothing but a pathetic attempt at Tones 2.0
swamprat@72
Murdoch, the IPA, tory donors etc will take him apart and probably depose him.
Not that I mind that at all.
teh_drewski
[Can he do those things, though, swamprat? In *that* Liberal party room?]
He only has to do them for the period of the election campaign. He can promise the party room a new more subtle way of soaking the poor.
swamprat
[Then the problems would begin again with instability as the idiot right flexes its power and undermines Turnbull…. on it goes…. :-)]
Yep
So when’s the Newspoll due?
[What would Machiavelli recommend in the current situation?]
He would advise The Prince to get someone like Brough to stand against Abbott, lose and then let it sink in that Abbott still has to go and wait until it is handed to him unanimously.
The ages of PM assuming office from Menzies (#2):
[Fraser 45.5
Keating 48.0
Gillard 48.8
Rudd 50.2
Hawke 53.3
Menzies#255.0
Gorton 56.4
Whitlam 56.4
Howard 56.7
Holt 57.5
McMahon 63.1
McEwen 67.8]
And current and possible PMs next week:
[Morrison46.8
Abbott 55.9
J Bishop 58.6
Turnbull 60.3]
If Morrison gets up, he would be second youngest (after Fraser)
If Turnbull gets up, he would be second oldest (after McMahon; ignoring Black Jack). JBishop would be third oldest
ltep@70
If there’s an early house election, the next one doesn’t have to be till early 2017, so as to bring the Senate election close to when the new Senate seats.
According to the poll earlier in the week, most of Turnbull’s support is from Greens. Perhaps the Greens and the Liberals can swap Turnbull and Milne as leaders. That way everyone is happy… especially the Labor Party.
If there’s a spill and say there’s more than two contenders, how does it go? Is there only one vote and the one with the most goes to be the leader? Or will they keep eliminating the worst contender, and do more rounds until there’s only two left, and the better of the two becomes the leader?
sohar
[most of Turnbull’s support is from Greens.]
Surely that can’t be right.
You mean there are more Green than LNP supporters for Turnbull?
I have sent an email to my local member, Michael Keenan, urging him to support Abbott and that spill motion actually go to a ballot. As I understand it Abbott as leader runs the meeting and he could rule that there is insufficient support for the spill motion and therefore doesn’t need to go to a vote, secret or otherwise.It would be another nail in his coffin if he did go that way but I wouldn’t put it past him.
I don’t want Abbott removed next week, I want him to suffer humiliation as long as possible, to see him swing in the breeze before he gets cut down. The bastard deserves nothing less.
[If there’s an early house election, the next one doesn’t have to be till early 2017, so as to bring the Senate election close to when the new Senate seats.]
True, but that’d still be much earlier than necessary, a 2 year term rather than 3. I can’t see why an early election would be necessary or desireable.
Lao:
I had no idea Fraser was such a young first PM! That would’ve been unheard of back in those days!
ltep@87
True, they can’t get any better number of seats than now, plus the MSM won’t be screaming about “mandate” as much as they did with Gillard.
Best person to lead Libs in Essential for Turnbull: Labor 27, Liberal 24, Green 37, Other 22.
Bingo
[poor Kevin Andrews – all single childless women look the same to him]
It is interesting, Labor in Australia only has the Greens challenging it from the “left”. While the Greens have stronger social democratic goals than the ALP, they have never been able to use those principles to take out ALP seats, despite the fcat that most Australians are natural social-democrats..
Compare that with the SNP in Scotland which has stronger social democratic goals than the UK Labour Party (but certainly not as ‘green’ as the Greens) and is looking to replace the Labour Party as the natural party of the broad left in Scotland.
(I know there is a unionist issue here as well).
I wonder if the Australian Greens would have a greater chance of challenging/replacing the ALP if they changed their focus to social/economic justice and changed their name (without changing environmental goals).
Hey ‘fess
There have been a number of PMs in their 40s actually:
Menzies first time round
Fadden
Bruce
Fisher
Deakin
Watson was in his 30s!
[I wonder if the Australian Greens would have a greater chance of challenging/replacing the ALP if they changed their focus to social/economic justice and changed their name (without changing environmental goals).]
First they would need to find a at least 2 policies that had half a chance of working.
swamprat@92
How about “Australian Loon Party” – ALP?
I can’t see Abbott agreeing to a secret vote on the spill motion.
He is a pugilistic scrapper who is simply not strategic in any way. That means he will look no further than the current contest and do what he can to win.
Just look at how many bridges he has burnt in attempting to shore up his position in the last couple of weeks. That disaster implying that he had a greater level of support from JBish than the basic ‘I cannot be seen to oppose the PM if I want to stay in Cabinet’ support.
Another example is promising things in the last election campaign when he didn’t have to, just to make sure he didn’t leak any votes that he didn’t need.
My guess is that he will not care how he looks on Wednesday because he demands a show of hands that favours him on Tuesday. He will simply regard it as having stared down another opponent.
Politically he is dead man walking anyway (even if he doesn’t see that).
Sir Prince Phillip never tried to destroy Medicare or the idea of an Aussie Fair Go so stop picking on him
Lao:
Guess back then 40s was equivalent to 60s of today?
[First they would need to find a at least 2 policies that had half a chance of working.]
and
[How about “Australian Loon Party” – ALP?]
OK, they may need to tighten up their focus….. 🙂
swamprat@99
10 / 10 for sense of humour swamprat. 😆