The New Year polling drought has come to an end with three new results this week, and the promise at least of Ipsos returning in the next weekly cycle. This of course comes at a particularly interesting time, in view of the Prince Philip idiocy and subsequent ramping up of leadership speculation. However, this week’s batch of polls when taken together offer only a partial account of the impact of an announcement that was made on Monday. To deal with them in chronological order:
• Essential Research surveyed from Friday to Monday, but even without much scope for the Prince Philip issue to affect the result, its fortnightly rolling average produced what by its standards was significant movement to Labor. After moving a point to the Coalition last week, Labor’s two-party lead was back to 54-46, from primary votes of 41% for Labor, 39% for the Coalition and 9% for the Greens. As always, half of this result comes from the previous week.
• Roy Morgan deviated somewhat from its usual practice in providing a poll of 2057 respondents in which the field work was conducted from Friday to Tuesday, in contrast to its usual practice of combining two weeks of results and surveying only on the weekend. In other words, a substantial part of the survey period came after the Prince Philip disaster. Compared with the poll that covered the first two weekends of the year, Labor gained a point on the primary vote directly at the Coalition’s expense, leaving them at 37.5% and 39.5% respectively, while the Greens were up from 9.5% to 12%. That left Labor with formidable two-party leads of 56.5-43.5 on respondent-allocated preferences, up from 54.5-45.5, and 55.5-44.5 on previous election preferences, up from 53-47 to 55.5-44.5.
• The Seven Network sent ReachTEL into the field on Tuesday evening to gauge the impact of Sir Prince Philip, and all things considered the result could have been worse for the Coalition, who trailed 54-46 from primary votes of 40.1% for Labor, 39.7% for the Coalition and 11.3% for the Greens. Things got uglier with questions on Tony Abbott’s leadership, which you can read about at the link.
When all that’s plugged into BludgerTrack, the model’s reaction is to move the two-party preferred result 0.9% in favour of Labor, translating into gains on the seat projection of two in New South Wales and one each in Queensland and Western Australia. One suspects there will be more where that came from over the next week or two. However, as you can see from the trendlines on the sidebar, the model does not read this as movement to Labor over the past week, but has rather retrospectively determined that the movements being recorded over New Year (Coalition up, Greens down) hadn’t happened after all.
In light of Abbott knights and dames, can I suggest that we stop using unearned titles and use appropriate ordinary names – Elizabeth Windsor or perhaps Saxe-Coburg-Gotha or Mountbatten Windsor, Philip Mountbatten, Charles Windsor or perhaps Saxe-Coburg-Gotha or Mountbatten Windsor, Dianna Spencer etc.
I think it’s safe to say boats have stopped. There may be the odd few still trying to get here, but it’s nowhere near what it was like before the no visa policy was introduced.
confessions
It is not safe to say the boats have stopped. You can say they have reduced. Even dramatically. However they have not stopped.
Labor needs to hammer the LNP on this. Abbott would if the positions reversed.
guytaur
Labor will not hammer the coalition on asylum seeker policy. As said by ratsak (i believe), Labor will be on the exact same page as the coalition in this area
Yeah I think it is safe to say they’ve stopped because effectively they have.
And Labor would be mad to go the coalition on boats because now the issue has been neutralised.
victoria
ratsak is wrong. Labor will do no such thing. Labor does not let the LNP do Labor policy.
Burke as former immigration minister and Bowen too would know transparency means a different policy to the LNP.
That is not saying shut Manus and Nauru down. That is saying go back to using them as Rudd intended.
In the meantime Labor will hammer the LNP over cruelty and secrecy and rightly so.
You cannot say they will not because they have already been doing this.
In fact the issue is so neutralised that Abbott felt it was safe to make one of the biggest ministerial duds we’ve seen responsible for the portfolio.
confessions
No you cannot say that. The boats have not stopped. Putting the word effectively in front of it does not change the fact the boats have not stopped.
Rudd got the numbers dramatically reduced when he set Manus and Nauru up.
So hold the LNP on its promise. Stop the Boats is not effectively stopping the boats.
Be tough on the LNP on Boars as they are to Labor. Remember the LNP were so prepared to cost Labor on boats they voted for onshore detention along with the Greens.
How can Abbott trust Julie Bishop anymore after she (allegedly) leaked the story about Abbott wanting to install Greg Sheridan as High Commissioner to Singapore? After Sheridan called her a ‘dumb ass’ or wttte, she would have had to accept him as a underling.
There is probably a plethora of similar Abbott BrainFarts(tm) which haven’t yet been leaked, but the drip has started.
For example, Simon Benson in today’s Daily ToiletPaper
[The art is to know when to have the argument. Staffers will quickly be cut out of the loop if the boss fears being told on a daily basis that what they are proposing is idiotic.
As one insider said of Abbott, out of 10 ideas he puts up, two may be good, three are ‘so-so’ and the rest would blow the government out of office if they were ever enacted.
It is a common refrain that Credlin saves more bad ideas getting through the net than those that do.
]
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/is-time-running-out-for-prime-minister-tony-abbott-and-his-chief-of-staff-peta-credlin/story-fni0cx4q-1227202521594
Now I wonder what these Abbott BrainFarts(tm) were? I think we are about to find out.
I think whenever ‘Boats’ are mentioned, Labor should switch the conversation back to jobs, Medicare, Education, $100,000 degrees, pensions. The Coalition has used boats as a cover to slip in a neoliberal ‘reform’ agenda. So the boats have stopped. By the way, don’t get sick, unemployed or disabled. And be ready to fork out 100K if you or your child aspire to higher education.
Steve
Health, education, welfare … It’s really pretty simple.
Then there is workplace protection and a commitment to cooperate with the states to improve infrastructure without privatisation.
Steve
I agree. However Labor has to avoid being locked into a position by the LNP that will restrict them in government.
This is why I am glad to have seen the statements so far from Labor on transparency and cruelty. It says Labor will be different without making Labor the issue.
Sproket,
When the say two are good, they mean two are good for a talentless Lib, not that they are actually any good.
I agree with what someone said earlier that Labor should be out sticking the boot into the main prospects to replace Abbott. Take some skin off them and you might get to keep the dud in place, or at least limit the honeymoon. Even going full outrageous and talking about how the ALP learned the hard way about what a bad idea it is to dump a PM and how they’ve learned the lesson and changed the way the leader is elected so that it can never happen again.
Ladle it on thick about how Tony is pretty rubbish, but he’s the PM the Australian people chose and anyway he’s a damn sight better than the duds who are leaking against him and trying to knife him in the back. That sort of thing can’t happen in the ALP any more, but the Libs will just keep knifing each other.
@lanecovealp: Tony Abbott is a #goodcaptain if: He goes down with the ship. #auspol
😆
Steve777:
Personally I think they should just avoid the issue of boats. They’ve finally stopped, the issue is neutralised, and the coalition can credibly claim credit for that.
ratsak:
I heard Shorten say the other day it doesn’t matter who leads the Liberals because it’s their policies which are bad for Australia, and that won’t change with a new leader.
He’s right.
guytaur
I hope ratsak is right
confessions
The boats have not stopped. The issue is not neutralised. The LNP are going to say Labor is the party for bring the boats back.
Labor has to be ready with an effective argument for that or it will be a big issue as the LNP uses boats as a trojan horse to imply Labor is for reduced cost of living and your current way of life at risk.
The other thing that Shorten can say is that the Liberals are trying to foist on Australia bad policies that nobody voted for.
ratsak
OK, I’ll start.
I’m sitting here looking at a bloody great tower across the river that popped up during the time we were visiting interstate some time ago, well, almost 6 months ago exactly.
Its an NBN tower.
You beauty I thought and promptly contacted NBN Co to find out when we would get to Stage 2, which is “Choose a Provider”.
No providers.
In 6 months.
I have been advised by NBN Co that usual wait time for a provider is 6 to 12 months after the tower is complete [which, as I said, was 6 months ago].
I find that ridiculous.
Incompetent – either by accident or deliberate policy.
Remind me, who is the Federal Minister in change of the COALition’s ‘Fraudband’?
steve
Labor has a lot to go with. I think the best indication on how Labor may campaign is to look at Bill Shorten’s Budget Reply speech.
Fess,
Yes that’s obvious and safe (policies not personalities). I’m suggesting being a bit mischievous and taking a little risk by bring up the Rudd/Gillard/Rudd years. Might be hard for Shorten to do thanks to his role in the knifings, but if they can get the message to ‘We thought we could get away with knifing a PM, we were wrong. We’ve learnt that lesson, looks like the Libs want to learn it the hard way too.’
Then the take out is Labor = learnt their lesson, stable, ready to govern, Liberals = learnt nothing, a rable, can’t even govern themselves. Labor should be playing hardball on this and sowing the ground that replacing Abbott is unacceptable by throwing the Libs own words back in their faces. At the moment knifing Abbott would surely be a big boost for the Libs. It is as the unnamed Lib in the story above said a very different situation to Rudd. Labor needs to erase that distinction now so either Abbott survives, or at least the Libs suffer maximum damage when they do axe him.
Maximum attack on Bishop, Turnbull and Morrison (forcing Abbott to come out and defend them is a nice bonus), and maximum mea culpa with evidence of pennance and change I reckon is Labor’s best play as it stands now.
The other good side effect of the boats having stopped is that we rarely hear from SHY anymore.
confessions
The boats have NOT stopped.
Stop doing the LNP work for them.
ratsak:
Maybe. I think someone other than Shorten could do some speculation about the Sheridan leak, wondering if JBishop might not be such “a loyal girl” after all?
Sure guytaur. Keep telling yourself that.
guytaur
Thank goodness labor wont be taking advice from you
Exactly Fredex, Turnbull is ripe because all the promises (25Mbs minimum anyone?) have been broken and no one is seeing any NBN (Faster, Cheaper my arse Malcolm!). Plus they can press him on conscience votes for marriage equality (just to keep the Hard right from falling in behind him), and keep hitting him on Carbon.
But he’s the easy one probably because he’s the least likely to be the one they turn to.
Morrison and Bishop are a little bit more difficult, but certainly doable. Bishop especially on would you trust her with the economy after the Libs couldn’t trust her even as shadow treasurer, and copying her homework. Morrison is tricky – they won’t want to mention the boats, but maybe just how much he enjoys cruelty will do it.
confessions
There is a reason Bill Shorten and the Labor team have not said the boats have stopped.
They do not deny facts.
Just as its a fact if Labor does not attack the LNP on boats the LNP will use boats as one of its main planks in an election campaign. Meaning another election where the boats issue is fought on the LNP not Labor terms.
The promise of stop the boats was not a Labor promise. Boats still coming means Abbott has broken that promise. Even one boat breaks that promise. The LNP would hammer Labor on such grounds and Labor should stop cowering on the sissue and return firs.
The LNP has not stopped the boats
victoria
If you think boats are not going to be an election issue you are dreaming
Fess,
Yeah the Scheming Deputy angle might be a good one on Bishop. They need to be careful about any overt sexism – just not on, but if some voters conflate Julie with Juliar then well what can you do?
Ms Bishop says she’s loyal to Mr Abbott and isn’t setting to knife him in the back. Perhaps that’s true. But when you see her meeting with Mr Murdoch in NYC, and getting puff pieces and flattering stories in his papers, and now this leaking of Mr Abbott’s attempt set his friend up as Consul in Singapore, a leak that can only have come from Ms Bishop’s department, well you start to wonder if Ms Bishop really is being truthful don’t you?
guytaur:
The reason Labor haven’t said anything about boats is because it’s the smart thing to do!
I agree with victoria: the opposition would be mad to take advice from you.
confessions
You have not been paying attention. Labor has said things about since the election. Several times.
Quite good ones too.
As for what I am saying.
The LNP promised to stop the boats. The boats have not stopped while even one boat comes. This is fact.
Therefore Labor can destroy the LNP credibility on breaking a promise and its not about Labor its about the LNP not delivering.
If Barnaby Joyce “bets his house” on Abbott leading the Coalition to the next election, and also loses his own seat to a rural independent, he will be in a bit of trouble!
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/jan/30/national-party-warned-of-electoral-backlash-over-massive-nsw-coalmine
In other news, I see that the european Space Agency says that its Comet Probe “Philae” is not dead, just hibernating.
Where have I heard this before?
Mr. Praline: I’ll tell you what’s wrong with it, my lad. ‘E’s dead, that’s what’s wrong with it!
Owner: No, no, ‘e’s uh,…he’s resting.
Mr. Praline: Look, matey, I know a dead parrot when I see one, and I’m looking at one right now.
Owner: No no he’s not dead, he’s, he’s restin’! Remarkable bird, the Norwegian Blue, idn’it, ay? Beautiful plumage!
Re Boats:
In my view the ALP can’t simply sweep this issue under the carpet and move on. Its not credible. They either want to lead the nation into a better place or they don’t. This government have opened a considerable crack in its facade on fairness and its evident across the board. Use it. Australians are not shitheads. We are reasonable people and will roll our sleeves up to help others whatever the circumstance. The nation has been conned and used and our name besmirched. It is a political attack on us as people by the elite and powerful extreme right for political gain. Tell it like it is. Its a conversation the country needs to have and the perfect vehicle to show leadership and worth. Trust the people and they will trust you.
The boat policy can be attacked on several fronts:
Cost
Resources
Secrecy
Short sightedness
Human Rights abuse
Damage to Australia’s international reputation
Facts/Con job
Politically motivated criminalization/whistle blowing
Hypocrisy/Tearful Libs V reality
Labor must differentiate. It must LEAD.
Border Protection anyone?
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/more-than-62000-people-living-illegally-in-australia-20141226-12dxod.html
Well said Gecko. Sometimes I think that people like confessions are closet LNP supporters, so willing are they to cede ground to them and thoughtlessly adopt their banal talking points..
FFS nobody knows if the boats have stopped (in itself an inane election slogan), and even if they have, at what cost?
[We’re back! Join us Sun Feb 1 for the 1st #insiders program of 2015 #qldvotes analysis, guest @billshortenmp #auspol pic.twitter.com/8Mm0A1w3WO]
Seconded.
That’s why I pointed out the hypocrisy of having 60,000 plus illegal visa overstays here that garners virtually no hysterical reaction by comparison.
We have demonised people [asylum seekers] for no good reason.
When the conversation is about boats it advantages the coalition.
When the conversation is about health, education, jobs, and these days the economy, it advantages Labor.
Doesn’t take a huge leap of logic to see that keeping the conversation off boats would be to Labor’s favour.
[Sometimes I think that people like confessions are closet LNP supporters,…]
Hardly. 😆
fredex
The coalition have been successful in demonising asylum seekers and the electorate have gone along with it. Labor will fight a losing battle to attempt anything different
Anthony Lowenstein on 24 talking about detention centres and how having private companies running them is problematic now
confessions
Agreed.
victoria:
I hadn’t noticed the absence of Insiders until then!
I can see not one iota of need to reintroduce boats. Give the Libs that one, and perhaps ask, “Will that create any more jobs? New industries? Solve the deficit problems?”, and then change the subject. ONLY if asked directly about it.
Man doth not live by boats alone.
victoria
Its all insane. However stop the boats can be attacked as a broken promise destroying LNP credibility.
This will stop the LNP using demonisation as an election tool.
Labor can destroy the LNP attacking Labor on this once and for all.
LNP ineffective incompetent to stop the boats. Great line for Labor