The New Year polling drought has come to an end with three new results this week, and the promise at least of Ipsos returning in the next weekly cycle. This of course comes at a particularly interesting time, in view of the Prince Philip idiocy and subsequent ramping up of leadership speculation. However, this week’s batch of polls when taken together offer only a partial account of the impact of an announcement that was made on Monday. To deal with them in chronological order:
• Essential Research surveyed from Friday to Monday, but even without much scope for the Prince Philip issue to affect the result, its fortnightly rolling average produced what by its standards was significant movement to Labor. After moving a point to the Coalition last week, Labor’s two-party lead was back to 54-46, from primary votes of 41% for Labor, 39% for the Coalition and 9% for the Greens. As always, half of this result comes from the previous week.
• Roy Morgan deviated somewhat from its usual practice in providing a poll of 2057 respondents in which the field work was conducted from Friday to Tuesday, in contrast to its usual practice of combining two weeks of results and surveying only on the weekend. In other words, a substantial part of the survey period came after the Prince Philip disaster. Compared with the poll that covered the first two weekends of the year, Labor gained a point on the primary vote directly at the Coalition’s expense, leaving them at 37.5% and 39.5% respectively, while the Greens were up from 9.5% to 12%. That left Labor with formidable two-party leads of 56.5-43.5 on respondent-allocated preferences, up from 54.5-45.5, and 55.5-44.5 on previous election preferences, up from 53-47 to 55.5-44.5.
• The Seven Network sent ReachTEL into the field on Tuesday evening to gauge the impact of Sir Prince Philip, and all things considered the result could have been worse for the Coalition, who trailed 54-46 from primary votes of 40.1% for Labor, 39.7% for the Coalition and 11.3% for the Greens. Things got uglier with questions on Tony Abbott’s leadership, which you can read about at the link.
When all that’s plugged into BludgerTrack, the model’s reaction is to move the two-party preferred result 0.9% in favour of Labor, translating into gains on the seat projection of two in New South Wales and one each in Queensland and Western Australia. One suspects there will be more where that came from over the next week or two. However, as you can see from the trendlines on the sidebar, the model does not read this as movement to Labor over the past week, but has rather retrospectively determined that the movements being recorded over New Year (Coalition up, Greens down) hadn’t happened after all.
Fess
The other day, Bcassidy intimated a senior minister would be on the program. I was under impressioin that it was a coalition MP.
Anyhoo the word is that Bishop is frontrunner for leadership, but the fibs are wedged on Turnbull. They are sure they can win the next election with him, Bishop not so much
re: confessions at 483
[I agree with victoria: the opposition would be mad to take advice from you.]
I think the Opposition would be mad to take advice from anyone other than who is giving them advice at the moment. I cannot see how it would help their strategy, not only to get elected but to be able to do something good for Australia with the power of Government, to do anything other than what they are doing at this precise moment.
Whatever the Liberals decide to do among themselves between now and Budget night, I think Labor will use the Budget in reply to set the pattern for its approach in the following year – just as it did last year.
I think the argument needs to pivot from the approach taken by both sides that a balanced budget is the holy grail of government to one where planning and investing in Australia’s future will be the key issue – there is enough there to differentiate clearly between the two sides.
And if the Liberals are going to start with the intergenerational theft thing as their chief motif for the coming year (on the back of the intergenerational report) then Labor has a brilliant opportunity to turn it on its head and argue that true intergenerational theft is stealing the future from young Australians (other than the already well-off and privileged) by denying them education and skilled employment and trapping them in very low paid and low skilled service jobs.
Note that this is not advice – just thoughtful speculation on my part.
BB
Yes. Boats must be addressed by Labor if asked which they will be.
However Labor should minimise as much as possible even while destroying LNP credibility.
The broken promise thing is a one liner and does lead to lets look at the other ones like Health Education etc.
Goodness, I thought the boat thing has gone away.
To the extent that not one waif of a boat has turned up in Geraldton harbour – unbeknown to anyone it seemed and on its was to NZ, so say – the old PS business model seems to have collapsed. Rudd’s “Nobody will end up in Oz” has been largely effective together with the Libs secrecy and the orange boats. Out of sight, out of mind for most of the Oz electorate now.
What we don’t know is how many have set out and just what the Indonesians are doing – covertly – in the process.
On another matter, Paul Murray in-house right wing hack in the West newspaper has abandoned Abbott – telling him in today’s edition that he is poison and should be replaced by some kind of Bishop/Turnbull ticket.
Murray, like me, notes JBish has not really got much of a PM show due to her WA location.
Murray now acknowledges that Abbott has never been liked, was under suspicion in regard to his competence and judgement, is seen as a dud and toxic to the LNP cause.
Mind you I still think the Libs will be reluctant to move against him just yet though Murray maintains they can’t afford the leeway of waiting until the next budget session.
Which ever way the outcome goes in Queensland Abbott will cop some blame. I see the government supporting spin media is stating that Labor winning 30-40 seats is kind of “the boat righting itself” and things “going back to more normal things in Queensland” as an excuse for the hammering which may ensue.
[I hadn’t noticed the absence of Insiders until then!]
Cassidy’s pathetic insistence on poring over “what the papers say”, especially regarding Sunday papers rankles with me.
As if what any of the Sunday commentators says or believes means anything.
No matter what Abbott says or does is relevant now. No-one will believe in his promises, his reboots or resets, or his assurances that he won’t go off the reservation again. There is no fixing the Coalition as long as Abbott is in charge. I’ve had so many business people tell me that they can’tplan with an idiot like that in charge, chopping and changing policies, inventing and then dis-inventing them daily.
[Doesn’t take a huge leap of logic to see that keeping the conversation off boats would be to Labor’s favour.]
Conversely it’s not a huge leap to expect it ain’t going away either. Labor need a response. That response needs to change the narrative. The opportunity to change the narrative and unite the nation using core Labor values, presents now.
PVO prediction for Qld election
[My prediction for tonight out of Queensland: LNP 51-52, ALP 35-36, other up to 3 seats out of the 89 on offer.]
[Plus Newman to lose Ashgrove (just) and keep an eye on Pauline Hanson. I think she will fail but it could be very close, you never know…]
[8 reasons why James Hird lost his Federal Court Appeal
By Natalie Hickey, January 31, 2015]
http://sociallitigator.com/2015/01/31/8-reasons-why-james-hird-lost-his-federal-court-appeal/
vic 507 keep an eye on Pauline Hanson
Nice little earners (off the public purse), these election things!
On twitter I am seeing reports of people being turned away over voter ID.
This means we could see legal challenges and if as close as thought the result and flow on to the Federal Government could be delayed for weeks.
A whole lot of if’s there it could all amount to nothing.
This is what Possum is saying
[Comrades: If Lib booth workers are telling people they can’t vote without ID – get them on film.]
Voter ID. Shades of the deep south of America?
Bushfire Bill@499
Yes, lets not mention the war!
I can see the politics behind this thinking, but then so can everybody else… thus it’s shortsighted, cheap, unimaginative and relegates Labor to continuous bleeding on the left flank for not standing up where we know we should. We can either be true to our values and take the nation with us by slamming the door on the right or we can die slowly on the vine of populist opportunism.
The Libs haven’t won this issue… they’ve simply bashed it into submission. If anyone thinks its gone away… they’ve got rocks in their head.
The boats issue is not settled while the general public don’t know what has happened behind the scenes during the Abbott government’s reign. There are likely to be some real nasties exposed at some point.
One thing to protect your borders. Quite another to be unnecessarily vicious shits about it, especially when the ‘problem’ does not constitute anything vaguely resembling a serious threat to your actual security.
Nonetheless, this is one of the most politically fraught issues for Labor and the left. Mostly because they can never win a competition to be the biggest bastard with the hard right, who will always be prepared to dive further into the exploitative xenophobic cesspit over it.
Forget any idea of ever allowing ‘illegal’ boat people to land here again. That option is now stone cold dead.
Given all that, the best chance for Labor to show they can manage the issue, and in a more humane way than the LNP, is to get a workable regional agreement on handling refugees up and running.
Check out the three stories together at the top of the online Tiser. Jules and Talc’s side by side with Tone underneath. Bish scoring a big picture though.
[Julie Bishop: She’s got the look
THERE’S more to Julie Bishop than the withering glare she perfected on her sisters growing up in the Adelaide Hills. As she shines as foreign minister the question is – how far can she go? ]
http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/lifestyle/sa-lifestyle/julie-bishop-shes-got-the-look/story-fnizi7vf-1227201991320
[
Should Turnbull be our new PM?
Communications minister Malcolm Turnbull talking NBN
AS speculation grows of a possible leadership challenge to Prime Minister Tony Abbott, the man many Australians want in the top job is doing his best to avoid the talk]
http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/national/turnbull-ducks-abbott-leadership-challenge-talk/story-fni6ulvf-1227203085341
[Abbott to scrap $20b parental leave scheme
PRIME Minister Tony Abbott is preparing to dump his controversial $20 billion Paid Parental Scheme as soon as Monday as he seeks a circuit-breaker from his horror run
]
http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/tony-abbott-to-scrap-20b-paid-parental-leave-scheme-until-budget-back-in-surplus/story-fni6uok5-1227202906140
Boats
Having spent the best part of my working life in Immigration under Ministers of both colours, I can assure all the posters here that there is a unity ticket between Labor and Coalition on ‘Stop the Boats’ being the number one priority as long as there are boats arriving. And it has been since Hawke’s time.
At the same time, compassionate people on both sides knew that the issue had to be carefully managed to avoid real damage to the community and unleashing rabid racist violence – although they tended to get pretty much suppressed on the Coalition side.
Abbott and co threw that level of private co-operation out the window in their desperation for power. But don’t imagine for one moment that Labor will wind back substantially what the Liberals have put in place. The best that opponents of the current regime can hope for under Labor is that the rule of law will be allowed out of its dungeon where the Libs have put it. End of story.
lizzzie
Yes and always brought in by the right wing in such a way as to discourage eligible voters from exercising their right
I know its Queensland but I think it has national significance if brought in as some advocate nationally so the latest on ID from Tally Room
http://www.tallyroom.com.au/24746
Just Me @ 514
I read this after posting my screed. Absolutely spot on.
However important politically keeping the boats away from Australia is, it is more important that we never fall into the trap of ‘the means justifies the end’ as the single justification for the means. That is what Morrison has done. Vile, revolting man that he is.
Boatism was toxic for Labor. May those bloody boats never start again. It was a disaster in political, human and financial terms. Labor will rightly not touch the border and immigration settings ever again. And thankfully they will not be taking advice from off the planet folks like SHY or our own resident twitterer guytaur.
Boatists should STFU. It is the sole issue that the Abbott Coalition can claim any level of competence or election campaign honesty on.
Those on Nauru and Manus were told they would never be settled in Australia — yet they still came to use their physical presence in Australian custody to emotionally blackmail us.
Australia will rightly take its fair share of humanitarian migrants — but that will be done through IOM/UNHCR and a Cabinet approved humanitarian programme and not through a self-select illegal racket.
Gecko, you’re almost as bad as the MSM: spoiling for a fight, skirmishing on every front, scrapping for the sake of scrapping.
There’s nothing wrong as such with “not mentioning the war”. “Boats” is a battle that was lost, and there’s zero traction in resuming it for Labor, or the Greens, unless things change radically.
In seeking purity on boats, the Greens as usual got Abbott. In seeking purity on the ETS – first by declining to join Labor in the CPRS, and then in version 2 by insisting on a Carbon Tax as a primer for the ETS (thus making it appear that Gillard was breaking a promise) – they got a a couple of years of carbon pricing, the results of which have been ignored, no matter how successful, which will be followed by several more of chaos, even after Abbott disappears off the political map.
Fighting on every front, looking for trouble is NOT what is required in today’s Australian politics. The punters seem to have had enough of that with Abbott, Rudd and Gillard. The Left doesn’t have the strength to do that. In any case, any big policy moves by Shorten now will be drowned out by the media’s obsession with Leadershit. The Media is not ready for policy wisdom.
The disaster that is Tony Abbott needs to sink into the minds of the voters a lot further yet. When they start begging labor for alternatives, that’s the time to provide them. While there’s still a flickering hope out there and in the media that Abbott might successfully reboot, policy time has not yet come.
Shorten, while keeping the Labor/left flame flickering with everything from weak zingers to minor forays into policy, with a little obstructionism thrown in is making sure his powder stays dry for when it’s really needed. The Coalition has a huge lead in seats and executive power. Labor and the Greens butting their heads against that brick wall before the time is right is foolish.
In the meantime the Coalition wanders around aimlessly using up political fuel and spending political capital. Most of the ammunition is dud. They’re running out of all three. They want a fight before they grind to a halt in the ditch they have dug for themselves. Accommodating them on such losing ground as “Boats” is plain stupidity, no matter how angry what they are doing in Nauru and Manus makes us.
Darren Lever
I am looking at reality. Boats will be an issue during the next election. Its about the only thing the LNP has to run on.
To say this is not be a dreamer on boats. To deny this is.
I don’t understand how the PM walking away from his ‘signature initiative’ is going to help him re-boot.
Darren Lever
Yeah how dare the torrtured denied legal rights stoop to emotional blackmail
I agree that Labor needs to have a strategy to deal with ‘Boats’, but in the scheme of things, it is a third or fourth order issue, rather like the visa overstayers. No one is working themselves into a lather over that.
However, the Right of political and their media allies have managed to elevate the issue to the level of moral panic among a segment of the population. I bet loud cheers were heard in the proverbial smoke-filled rooms of Liberal headquarters every time a boat hove over the horizon during the Rudd/Gillard years.
Labor will need a policy, a strategy and responses to questions as they arise. But mostly they need to talk about what really matters to most Australians.
They also need a strategy to tone down the heat on the issue, to work towards a viable long term regional solution, to meet our treaty obligations and generally act like a civilised nation. Easier said than done of course, and I have no idea how it might be accomplished, but it has to be done.
TPOF 516 – thanks for that. Someone once told me that after a “blow up” on this issue (in 2001) that people from both parties got together after the election to try and get the rhetoric toned down.
And then years later Tone “toned” it up!
j341983 @ 523
It may show that he is over ‘captain’s picks’. Also, it is the one policy of the Coalition that is stone cold friendless anywhere in the Australian political universe.
He stuck to it because it was the only detailed promise he made before the election and to abandon it would have opened the door wide to the ‘you lied just like you said Gillard did’ treatment. But that door has been wrenched off its hinges following the ABC cuts and the screen grab of the interview with Anton Enus – so there is little left to lose but face. And even Abbott has been convinced that it is better to lose face than his job.
For those that think boats will not be an issue I remind you of the last one.
The news media pushed it as an issue to the point that a candidate saying that asylum seekers were clogging the M4 was not laughed out of credibility. She now sits in parliament.
That is what Labor is up against on boats. Do not fool yourselves it is going to be any different this time around.
I am mainly in agreement with Steve.
I have just suggested I think there is a broken promise argument to pursue to help put the issue out of the LNP armoury.
[
Darren Lever
Yeah how dare the torrtured denied legal rights stoop to emotional blackmail]
I have little sympathy for it. People are genuniely starving in other parts of the world, and would never have had a hope of buying fake documents, plane tickets to Indonesia and then still have money left over to pay a smuggler to board a boat to Australia.
Spare me your crocodile tears. Those arriving in boats were rarely in need — they are almost exclusively middle-class males from places like Iran who wanted to exploit our system which rewarded those who physically arrived here. Now that the rewards have stopped, so have the boats. Funny that.
Unless you’re suggesting Iran has suddenly made itself a better place to live for middle class males in the last 12 months…!
http://www.theage.com.au/sport/laser-of-ridicule-closes-on-james-hirds-feet-of-clay-20150131-132ocw.html
Steve777 @ 525
Yes, it is a fourth order issue in one sense – but it goes to the heart of how ordinary people FEEL about national security. It may be illogical, but that is the heart of its impact. The pattern, though, is that once ordinary people stop being frightened by all the boats, they start getting emotional about individual cases where the system has been particularly vile.
The Libs will never admit it, but the regime was being carefully wound back under Vanstone once the government felt safe to do so. The Solon/Rau affairs enabled the government to shove the blame on the department for over-enthusiasm in implementing its policies and thus enable it to pretend to be the good guys. They won’t have the option this time, but a fair bit of faecal matter may well hit the fan coming up to election time.
As per article posted above
[In reputational terms it may be anyway. The horrible, once unthinkable, reality for Hird is that he now finds himself where Tony Abbott has been during the past week: the butt of ridicule. And ridicule, it has been emphasised recently, is the most potent killer of public leaders.
While Hird and his supporters, like the embattled PM and his, will tell themselves the derision on social media is mere electronic graffiti, that is to ignore an important reality. The majority of football fans – indeed, Australian sports fans – simply want to know whether or not Essendon’s players were administered banned substances. This is the story’s essence and a case such as that run by Hird is seen as an obstruction employed in desperation]
Tricot went:
We know from UNHCR sources that about 100 boats left Indonesia in the last 12 months heading for Australia. We are reasonably certain that about 15 boats were intercepted and turned back, Dutton confirmed this just the other day. What happened to the other 85 boats we don’t know. We don’t know how many the Indonesians intercepted and turned back, we don’t know how many sunk and we don’t know how many, if any and we hope none, drowned because the government won’t tell us.
Just because the boats aren’t being splashed all over the news doesn’t mean they’ve stopped and just because Andrew Bolt isn’t screaming that the PM has blood on his hands doesn’t mean asylum seekers aren’t dying trying to get here.
DL
I think you are turning a blind eye just because of the secrecy. Out of sight out of mind.
Referring to Iran does nothing to explain Australian government behaviour.
Those Bludger Greens who lauded, and laud, SYRIZA, and SYRIZAN Greeksmail, to the skies will, no doubt, be interested in some of the fairly early consequences. After all, what seemed such a good idea at the time does not seem to be taking all that long to be seeming, maybe, not such a good idea for right exactly now.
The Greensmailers would, no doubt, have been delighted that bank stocks fell 25%, the Greek Stock Exchange 10% and the Greek bond rate climbed to 16.5%. That will teach those nasty rich people, germans, bankers and hedge fund robbers! Not only that, but pensions have been increased, the national broadcaster is to be re-opened, a flock of pubic servants are to be hired, the privatisations have come to a dead halt. Plus, it is rumoured, the SYRIZAN Government is planning to refuse to meet with the bailout supervisors at all. That should fix hundreds of billions of debt and re-affirm for everyone with any interest in the matter, the good faith of the greek people.
All of this is excellent Greens-type stuff. The rich, the banks, the germans and the neo-liberals are all getting stiffed and the poor are being succoured.
But, but, but… Fifteen billion euros in capital has flown the greek coup already. Bank deposts have fallen by 5% in less than two months. Tax receipts are falling. Pension fund capital and income (which is used to fund the pensions) is down the tubes.
Yesterday there was a murmer that maybe there might not be enough cash in the SYRIZAN Government kitty to pay the greek police. And now the Minister for Social Security wonders whether there will be enough cash in march to pay pensions at all.
[On Friday, the country’s new energy minister, Panagiotis Lafazanis, told Reuters that the government would cancel plans to sell a state-owned natural gas utility. This came after the sale of the lucrative Port of Piraeus, as well as shares in Greece’s biggest refinery, Hellenic Petroleum, were scrapped.
“These announcements (on privatization) will satisfy the unions but scare away new investors,” Miranda Xafa, CIGI senior scholar and chief executive of E.F. Consulting, warned CNBC.]
BTW, the preferred SYRIZAN Government Coalition partner is headed by a chap called Kammenos. As previously noted he is an anti-semite and an anti-buddhist and opposes gay marriage legalisation which reform will now be put on the backburner as part of his price for joining the Australian Greens/SYRIZAN World Revolution.
But wait, there is more: Kammenos reckons that evil people have been putting some stuff in contrails aka ‘chemtrails’ to subdue the greek population. The bad news is that there is someone in the political world who less sane than Abbott. The badder news is that the new Greek Government even thinks he is mildly suitable as a coalition partner.
One way for Labor to neutralize Boats! if they win in 2016 is to allow much greater reportage of what is going on and conditions in Manus etc.
When stories started leaking out about conditions in the detention camps under Howard even the GG gave it wide and pretty negative coverage. There was a noticeable shift in the public discourse as the AS were humanized. The Libs responded by improving conditions due to this shift. One reason why Gruppenführer Morrison worked so hard to keep absolutely everything an “on water matter”
Labor could make no changes or promises to change but the public finding out what has been kept out if sight and out of mind will see a similar shift. Responding to public opinion will make it very hard to demonise such moves.
That said I don’t think they’ll ease things for the AS as much as they could/should but they should be able to knock off many of the Morrison cruelties.
Has there ever been an Australian election when no-one at all has a clue as to who the premier will be?
Bizarre.
I recall in the Rudd Gillard Rudd days the MSM masticating the words ‘Brand Labor’ over, and over and over again.
When are we going to hear about ‘Brand Liberal’?
Darren – you’re flat out wrong about the composition of the “boat people” cohort.
You can support the policy without repeating the lies of the bigots, I hope.
Alan – do you have a source for your boat departures figure?
Darren Laver @ 525
[Those arriving in boats were rarely in need — they are almost exclusively middle-class males from places like Iran who wanted to exploit our system which rewarded those who physically arrived here. Now that the rewards have stopped, so have the boats. Funny that.]
Sorry Darren, but those arriving on boats are pretty much a cross-section of humanity. Trying to describe them in simplistic general terms (I note you gave yourself an out by saying ‘almost exclusively’) is not only wrong but dehumanises the individuals who make up the passengers.
There is a very strong case to be made on moral grounds that priority should be given to those in need who line up and ask for entry from wherever they are, rather than prioritising those who force the issue by fetching up on our shores. But to demonise those who do get on boats is just plain wrong. And not just Liberals, but people like Bob Carr did it too – which put me off him for good.
Be clear on this. Every person on a boat is a human being – and each has a unique story. Many are genuine refugees in terms of the refugee convention – bearing in mind that you do not have to be in fear of your life to be a refugee under the convention – just various forms of persecution.
It’s also worth bearing in mind that you’re far more likely to be persecuted in, say, Iran, as a middle class moderate opposed to the current leadership than you are as an illiterate marginal poor, presumably who Darren Laver would have more sympathy for.
There’s a reason “do you have any money?” isn’t a factor to be considered in determining if someone is a genuine refugee.
Teh_drewski
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-11-28/unhcr-wants-australia-to-stop-detaining-children/5924108
This is the only public acknowledgement that I know of, but I have very good grounds to believe it is correct.
Tony Walker in the AFR…on leader/deputy tensions:
[Tony Abbott spent a lot of time on the phone over the Christmas and New Year period “consulting’’ fellow parliamentarians and former ministerial colleagues, seeking their counsel but also taking the opportunity to sound off about a perceived lack of loyalty from his deputy Julie Bishop and Communications Minister, Malcolm Turnbull.
Those tensions have now been exposed for all to see following reaction to an incomprehensible decision to confer an Australian knighthood on a nonagenarian royal whose connections with this country are sparse at best.
A former Howard government minister told AFR Weekend that, in a phone call before Christmas, Abbott had voiced concerns about Bishop’s manoeuvrings and those of her cabinet ally Turnbull.
Bishop’s meeting with newspaper proprietor Rupert Murdoch in New York before the latter called for the sacking of Abbott chief of staff Peta Credlin will have done nothing to allay those concerns.
Reports Bishop dined recently at Turnbull’s Potts Point mansion will have added to what Liberal insiders are describing as “paranoia” in the leader’s office.
Bishop and Credlin have been at each other’s throats since the early days of the government over staffing issues and travel arrangements.]
And in Victoria…
[Latest polling in Victoria is catastrophic for the Coalition, and if reflected at an election would result in the loss of something like one-third of the 16 seats held by the Liberal and National parties out of 37 in the states.
Adding to disillusionment bordering on panic in Victoria is a sense among senior Liberals their counsel is disregarded in a NSW-dominated party where no Victorian has a seat at the top table.]
http://www.afr.com/p/national/victorian_liberals_angry_with_abbott_zD5N028wkS9KfwEv4eLjeL
Mind you Tony is a bit sloppy on detail: Turnbull’s mansion is in Point Piper. Lucy’s office is/was in Potts Point – perhaps Tony is remembering where Turnbull met Godwin Grech: how quickly that appears to have been absent in the MSM coverage of late
Alan – I’m sure you do, and I’m equally sure that a large amount of scepticism will continue to be applied to your unsourced statements of belief.
I would very much like to see hard evidence that 8-10 boats are leaving Indonesia a month but are disappearing without a trace, because that would be remarkable, but I’m afraid one man with an agenda commenting in a news article promoting that agenda, and the assurances of a random person on the internet are not “hard evidence”.
An interesting flag design
https://t.co/ed84TlWaPy
TPOF
Years back when boats were barely heard of over east , WA was having a “boat people” panic over some Chinese and Vietnamese that had arrived in boats. Widespread claims that they weren’t “real” refugees as they were arriving dressed in “designer” clothes and wearing gold watches.
The local rag ran an article making the “designer clothes” + “gold watches” line. Looking at the photo of the group arriving however their clothes were very much chez Target and barely a watch in sight . Always struck me as odd that being educated or coming from anything more than a bones of your arse background somehow disqualified you from being a refugee.
[ Its all insane. ]
Agreed.
[ However stop the boats can be attacked as a broken promise destroying LNP credibility. ]
Not in Australia at the moment and for the foreseeable future.
[ This will stop the LNP using demonisation as an election tool. ]
No it wont. Nothing will. Its is in their DNA to do the Us vs OTHERS thing and to demonise particular groups if they think it will create division that will help pushing a policy they want.
[ Labor can destroy the LNP attacking Labor on this once and for all. ]
Not this cycle.
[ LNP ineffective incompetent to stop the boats. ]
Which most people would see as bullshit. REgardless of the facts you cant run a nuanced argument along the lines of, well actually they are still coming so techinically they havent stopped there are just a lot less of them….. You will get steamrolled and made to look a dick for “missing the point”.
Teh point being that the Libs love their xenophobia and will do ANYTHING to keep it relevant.
[ Great line for Labor ]
No, awful line for Labor. They need to keep away from it for now, In power, yes they will have to deal with it and hopefully there will be enough other stuff for people to focus on so that AS can become a much less heated issue.
Teh_drewski I just gave you a source. The UNHCR Rep in Indonesia is named and quoted, that is hard evidence. I’ve personally tried to get confirmation and acknowledgment from the government but to no avail, which is unsurprising given it undermines the veracity of their claims to have “stopped the boats”.
[Just because the boats aren’t being splashed all over the news doesn’t mean they’ve stopped and just because Andrew Bolt isn’t screaming that the PM has blood on his hands doesn’t mean asylum seekers aren’t dying trying to get here.]
Exactly. Meanwhile we have simplistic rubbish from Darren (always wrong) Laver who would be more at home trolling for the Libs than sharing his ‘insights’ with us; and the latest in Boewar’s fascinating series The Greeks and the Greens. Episode 5,678 I think, and aren’t we all on the edge of our seats…
poroti @ 545
That’s certainly true and continues with utterly false reports that do the rounds of right-wing bogan email chains about how refugees are ‘given’ houses and furniture and everything else.
One thing worth noting about the financial circumstances of refugees is that many of the Jewish people escaping Nazi Germany in the 1930s were people of means, often substantial means, who were abandoning much or all of their wealth to save their lives. Money really has nothing to do with it at all. But it’s a typical false note dog whistle employed when we don’t want to face up to the worldwide refugee situation, whether on boats, in camps outside their countries of residence or even trapped in their own countries.
Alan – it’s hard evidence that it’s what he said, not hard evidence that what he said is true.
6 boats disappearing a month would be hundreds, if not thousands of people being affected, potentially drowning in 2014 – that’s a *huge* story. Even if the Murdoch media wouldn’t touch it, someone else would.