The New Year polling drought has come to an end with three new results this week, and the promise at least of Ipsos returning in the next weekly cycle. This of course comes at a particularly interesting time, in view of the Prince Philip idiocy and subsequent ramping up of leadership speculation. However, this week’s batch of polls when taken together offer only a partial account of the impact of an announcement that was made on Monday. To deal with them in chronological order:
• Essential Research surveyed from Friday to Monday, but even without much scope for the Prince Philip issue to affect the result, its fortnightly rolling average produced what by its standards was significant movement to Labor. After moving a point to the Coalition last week, Labor’s two-party lead was back to 54-46, from primary votes of 41% for Labor, 39% for the Coalition and 9% for the Greens. As always, half of this result comes from the previous week.
• Roy Morgan deviated somewhat from its usual practice in providing a poll of 2057 respondents in which the field work was conducted from Friday to Tuesday, in contrast to its usual practice of combining two weeks of results and surveying only on the weekend. In other words, a substantial part of the survey period came after the Prince Philip disaster. Compared with the poll that covered the first two weekends of the year, Labor gained a point on the primary vote directly at the Coalition’s expense, leaving them at 37.5% and 39.5% respectively, while the Greens were up from 9.5% to 12%. That left Labor with formidable two-party leads of 56.5-43.5 on respondent-allocated preferences, up from 54.5-45.5, and 55.5-44.5 on previous election preferences, up from 53-47 to 55.5-44.5.
• The Seven Network sent ReachTEL into the field on Tuesday evening to gauge the impact of Sir Prince Philip, and all things considered the result could have been worse for the Coalition, who trailed 54-46 from primary votes of 40.1% for Labor, 39.7% for the Coalition and 11.3% for the Greens. Things got uglier with questions on Tony Abbott’s leadership, which you can read about at the link.
When all that’s plugged into BludgerTrack, the model’s reaction is to move the two-party preferred result 0.9% in favour of Labor, translating into gains on the seat projection of two in New South Wales and one each in Queensland and Western Australia. One suspects there will be more where that came from over the next week or two. However, as you can see from the trendlines on the sidebar, the model does not read this as movement to Labor over the past week, but has rather retrospectively determined that the movements being recorded over New Year (Coalition up, Greens down) hadn’t happened after all.
imacca @ 546
[Its is in their DNA to do the Us vs OTHERS thing and to demonise particular groups if they think it will create division that will help pushing a policy they want.]
That is certainly true. But we should not forget that it is in our DNA (literally) to respond with fear from the perception of threat from others. As human beings we are hard-wired to fear the unknown and people who are not like us. It is a fundamental survival mechanism as those who are too trusting and too welcoming don’t get a chance to breed more of the same.
What is hard work, even for thinking human beings, is to push back against that primordial sense of fear. Because pushing back against it is not ‘natural’. We have to think as human beings and not animals and more immediate the perceived threat, the more we react instinctively as animals and the less we use the distinctly higher order attribute of reason.
All that goes to say that no political party can win large support arguing cogently against fear while significant voices are still pushing that fear.
teh_drewski there is no suggestion that all of the unaccounted for boats have sunk or disappeared. The majority were almost certainly intercepted by Indonesia but you are right in that the claim needs to be fully investigated. I’ve contacted both Crikey’s own Bernard Keene and The Australian’s PvO to investigate but no response. There is a story but not a lot of people want to tell it and as you show, even fewer wish to hear it.
Ministers are popular because of me: Abbott
In a way that’s true because beside Abbott even Coco the Clown would look good.
Putting entirely to one side what I have argued on IMAs (aka ‘boats’) hitherto … (For the sake of brevity) …
The big political problem for the ALP with the ‘boats’ issue was not the issue itself but their inability or unwillingness (take your pick) to confront the Murdochracy. Today, ALP apologists demand nolo contendere on ‘boats’ but the basic structural weakness remains — their existential fear of Murdoch (translated as ‘how this will play with the punters’ defined as what Murdoch says it is).
Once a party loses control of its politics — effectively outsourcing it to those asserting mastery of messaging, or directly to someone like Murdoch himself — it loses a rationale for existence beyond occupying the government or opposition benches. It becomes at best a mere cover for wealthy spivs — and unsurprisingly, comes to be dominated by them.
It is truly a Faustian bargain.
On the contrary Alan, I’d *love* to hear it. I’m just not willing to assume it’s true on the basis of one guy in Jakarta’s agenda.
The funny thing about Abbott is that any analysis or opinion on his tenure is as frustrating as trying to critique Chauncey Gardiner. No one has a clue as to what this idiot will do next but we know it will at least be cartoonist fodder whatever happens…
Fran – I think you’re dissembling if you think the only problem with Australia’s attitude to asylum seekers is the Murdoch press’ reporting on it.
I noticed that Abbott, in one of today’s pit-stops in Geelong (joke), was promising to be a good boy, and carry on as PM. He said wtte “The people elected the government and they have elected me Prime Minister…”
The mistake made so often when arguing about who the people elected.
lizzie @ 558
[ “The people elected the government and they have elected me Prime Minister…”]
The more Abbott says this the happier I am. If he is dumped, he is setting his successor up for extra grief. Nice.
Fran @ 554
Please see my comment at 551
Whatever Murdoch thinks, he is not the driver re boats. In the same way that so many people go to the movies to watch horror stories, Murdoch sells papers by playing up the primeval fears of people. The issue is those fears, not the failure to present a cogent and kinder counter-argument. If the latter was the case, we would have a Greens majority government because the Greens have been unstinting in presenting the argument for not stopping the boats.
teh_drewski
Way back in the early 1980’s I was gobsmacked to be informed on several occasions how because of “their crowed cities” “the Asians” looked at our wide open spaces with envy . Because of this envy they would someday sweep down upon us from the north.
On one occasion I facetiously said “So millions of Chinese are going to jump in their sampans and sail all the way to Australia ?” . It was met with agreement it was indeed what was going to happen. W.A. was already well primed for panic about “Asiatic hordes” overrunning us.
what happened to the “senior Cabinet minister” Barrie had lined up for interview? Any way, free kick for Billy.
[
Kellie Mayo @KelMayo Jan 30
We’re back! Join us Sun Feb 1 for the 1st #insiders program of 2015 #qldvotes analysis, guest @billshortenmp #auspol
]
In the 60’s when I was in my teens the Libs with aid of the media promoted fear of the Yellow Peril; the domino theory; Reds under the bed.
Which is why they rave about refugees terrorism etc. if refugees and terrorism disappeared of the face of the Earth they would come up with some other boogie man.
poroti @ 561
That’s sort of funny because if people were not so ignorant they would know that, as a very generalised rule, Chinese are not interested in lebensraum. In fact, many Chinese find it weird to have too much personal space. Classic example of prejudice based on ignorance.
I am not looking for a skirmish on boats I am merely pointing out that the boats issue is not over for Labor and to think its dead and dusted is false. It is one of the first things the coalition will bring up. Run from it and there will be no place to hide.
There is a common thread with some here that we can manoeuvre as we always have. But I contend that the landscape has changed. Politics is on the nose. Trust is gone. National spokesmen have become vacuous mouthpieces of spin to feed the media cycle. Leaders on both sides assume delusional thrones that never existed and trash party values for ownership of absolute power that was never theirs to possess. The results are for everyone to see. The nation is in turmoil. We have lost rights & freedoms to a war on terrorism that serves only those who manipulate it for their own gain. Climate threatens our survivale yet we talk of coal. Jobs are disappearing. Business is floundering. The nation is drowning in a sea of xenophobia, fear and bias. Debt & deficit shrouds truth. The less fortunate are being abandoned. Hope is no more than a girls name and confidence is diminished.
Politically, the people have had a gut full.
The solution is not for Labor to rinse twice and repeat. Australia is in the throes of a right wing ideological assault riddled with disparity and unfairness. It presents as an opportunity for Labor to redefine and re-establish our credentials as the party of the future and the people. An opportunity to differentiate ourselves from the morally corrupt and the selfish. An opportunity to crush our opponent into the political abyss and lead the nation forward as one. But we cannot do this by promising more of the same. We cannot do this with zingers, by avoiding boats or by avoiding unionism and our history with it. Its the whole story or its nothing.
The Coalition are exposed for what they are and have always been. Unfair. This is the pathway. Change the narrative. Control it. Win. And win big. Play the same old same old and we will lose.
Found this in the comments of a news.com story about Turnbull. Love the logic… but have a funny feeling his prefs will always end up back with the LNP.
[The labor party would love Mr Turnbull as he is just a closet labor man.The day he takes over will be the day i stop voting for the LNP]
You need to keep your base reasonably happy, but starting fights on issues to please them will not win you an election. Elections are won in the middle, not by pandering to the rusten-on’s.
Teh_drewski
[Fran – I think you’re dissembling if you think the only problem with Australia’s attitude to asylum seekers is the Murdoch press’ reporting on it.]
The Murdoch Press does not ‘report’ on it. It trolls on it. It ‘bully pulpits’ on it. It cares not a jot about it save as a vehicle for effecting the regimes that momentarily suit its interests.
The ALP today is an expression of the efficacy of this and similar work in other areas.
Speaking of dealing with danger.
On QI a day or two ago there was a piece about those very popular little animals, the meerkats. They are apparently more vicious than they look, and people who have bought them as pets have lived to regret it.
The story was that when a group of meerkats want to cross a dangerous spot such as a road, they send the youngest member of the group ahead. If that one is killed or injured, they do not proceed.
I’m wondering how that could be adapted for politics.
Alan Shore back @533
I must confess surprise at such a high number of departures.
As somebody pointed out, 100 in 12 months averages (and this is a bit of a crude measure) about 8 per month or a couple every week or so. Where did they all start? And, apart from the 15 admitted to by Dutton, where are the rest?
It matters not in some respects because for Joe Public, it seems as though the boats have stopped. That is why my opening comment was about a frail boat turning up in Geraldton – as one did in the Labor era.
I have often thought that just one or two boats rocking up to Yanchep would about destroy the Libs “We have stopped the boats” claim. However, as not one boat, as far as we know, has seem to arrived anywhere near the Great Oz Land, then the Libs are entitled to claim some kind of success.
I still think Rudd’s ‘You ain’t welcome here’ together with the orange boats seems to have destroyed the business model of the PS in Indonesia.
Of course the cost is well hidden for the time being but the cynical in me would believe that 30% of the electorate would think the money well spent. Especially there would be none of them ‘jumping queues or getting free houses’ once they arrived in the Western Suburbs where the locals are doing it tough with clogged roads and all.
TPOF
[Whatever Murdoch thinks, he is not the driver re boats.]
He’d have had to arrest himself! 😉 All jokes aside …
[In the same way that so many people go to the movies to watch horror stories, Murdoch sells papers by playing up the primeval fears of people.]
It’s not about selling papers. It’s about influence peddling.
[The issue is those fears, not the failure to present a cogent and kinder counter-argument.]
Not really, because those (real) fears coexist with the desire of most to see themselves as humane and just. It’s a question of which buttons get pushed. Also, there’s not a lot of evidence that those hostile to IMAs were changing their votes on the matter.
[If the latter was the case, we would have a Greens majority government because the Greens have been unstinting in presenting the argument for not stopping the boats.]
See above. Cognitive dissonance rules. The ALP has bled to the left on this but since they pick up preferences, the effect has been minimal in changing the dynamic between the rightwing parties.
Gecko
[The Coalition are exposed for what they are and have always been. Unfair. This is the pathway.]
A great point of attack.
[ What is hard work, even for thinking human beings, is to push back against that primordial sense of fear. ]
Yup, it does tap into some very basic stuff. But, while some try (and dont always or even most of the time succeed) to be better than that, it sh$ts me to tears that the Libs wallow in it for the sake of the power it gives them.
Nasty, Grubby and Vile.
Hmmmm…sounds like a good name for a Liberal run law firm??
Re Guytaur @544: not a bad design and one of the few I’ve seen that combines elements of our current flag with Aboriginal motifs that works.
Gecko @ 565
I agree with you on the principle of standing for something different. And, yes, the Liberals will be pushing the boats for all its worth. But there is absolutely nothing in it for Labor to adopt a policy that resembles that of the Greens. It will be a world of pain for no gain
The biggest single things they can do are to promise to very actively look to implement regional solutions and to increase the number of humanitarian visas at least back to where they were left in 2013.
People will be looking for a point of difference between the two sides and that point of difference will be about the future of Australia – especially in regards to whether building intellectual infrastructure (education) and physical infrastructure (NBN) is going to be better for Australia than killing off the futures of disadvantaged younger Australians by killing spending on them in order to balance the books.
Boats are a distraction from that core issue – not the main game.
Question at 566
It’s kind of funny, because Turnbull in charge would be the biggest threat to any party opposed to the Liberals. He is the only potential Liberal leader who still has the capacity to capture the imagination of swinging voters (much as Bob Hawke did for Labor in 1983). Of course, that might fade once he actually has to be something other Leader in Waiting.
Fran Barlow
[….those (real) fears coexist with the desire of most to see themselves as humane and just.]
Which is exactly why Morrison worked so hard to put everything under a cone of silence.
Mal Brough urged to challenge Tony Abbott for leadership
Former Howard government cabinet minister Mal Brough is being urged by his colleagues to challenge Tony Abbott for the prime ministership if Saturday’s election result in his home state of Queensland is as bad as many MPs fear.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/mal-brough-urged-to-challenge-tony-abbott-for-leadership-20150131-132rfe.html
Tricot appreciate your point, however, the claim that “Rudd’s ‘You ain’t welcome here’” had any effect on boat arrivals is simply not supported by the weight of evidence. What is working and worked for Howard briefly in 2001 is turn backs. It’s a horrible truth and one that has required the excising of the Refugee Convention from our migration law and rendered our claims to be a decent, humanitarian nation hollow, empty rhetoric.
Tricot appreciate your point, however, the claim that “Rudd’s ‘You ain’t welcome here’” had any effect on boat arrivals is simply not supported by the weight of evidence. What is working and worked for Howard briefly in 2001 is turn backs. It’s a horrible truth and one that has required the excising of the Refugee Convention from our migration law and rendered our claims to be a decent, humanitarian nation hollow, empty rhetoric.
TPOF 🙂
If Turnbull does get in then the ALP should introduce private member’s bills for an ETS, gay marriage, and the republic 🙂
Apologies for the double post.
No it won’t happen. The Coalition party room is a knife free zone.
So Brough is to be the sacrificial meerkat? I’d like to see that.
Is Morrison’s ambition to be prime minister doomed because he has taken on the function of national sin eater?
Jesus, when I suggested Mal Brough as a dark horse for the leadership I was joking!
Poroti
[Which is exactly why Morrison worked so hard to put everything under a cone of silence.]
And succeeded simply because, as noted above, the Murdochracy had ceased to favour regime change.
Fulvio
Libs don’t use knives. They just pass notes behind the boss’ back.
fess 585,
He would just be the Trojan horse for the others to pile in…
Fran – I agree on News’ behaviour. I just think it’s a response to their audiences prejudices, not a driver of them (although, as these things are to some degree mutually reinforcing, it’s both).
Approximately 80% of Australians directed their first preferences at the last election to parties who made it absolutely clear that asylum seekers arriving by boat would never be settled in Australia. That’s an absolutely crystal clear, ringing endorsement to *both* parties that their offshore processing and resettlement policy is accepted by Australian voters.
Labor not standing up to Murdoch is irrelevant – it’s the fact that the overwhelmingly vast majority of Australians support a hardline stance on asylum seekers who arrive by boat. Change that, and the policies will change too. With or without News.
[Former Howard government cabinet minister Mal Brough is being urged by his colleagues to challenge Tony Abbott for the prime ministership if Saturday’s election result in his home state of Queensland is as bad as many MPs fear.]
How do you spell stalking horse?
Question:
LOL!
Mal Brough? Is it April 1st?
Abbott’s Cabinet reshuffle, forced on him by circumstances, revealed how weak he felt himself to be just before Christmas. It was the classic don’t rock the boat reshuffle.
Brough is one of those who feels that he is far superior to some of the dross either left in situ or shuffled from one place to another.
Brough has nothing to lose from triggering a leadership crisis. OTOH, provided he plays his cards right, he could end up with a senior ministry.
[Possum Comitatus @Pollytics · 22m 22 minutes ago
Imagine Mal Brough as political suicide bomber. He’d probably manage to blow himself up in the car park]
I see that according to Fairfax, Abbott has leapfrogged “embattled” to “besieged”.
[
525
Steve777
They also need a strategy to tone down the heat on the issue, to work towards a viable long term regional solution, to meet our treaty obligations and generally act like a civilised nation. Easier said than done of course, and I have no idea how it might be accomplished, but it has to be done.
]
Not repeatedly pissing off our immediate neighbours for no good reason, a lá Abbott, would be a bloody good start.
One advantage Labor probably do have on this issue is a better capacity for diplomacy.
My suspicion is that Labor’s policy will be “tough on border protection, humane on genuine asylum seekers”.
No change to turnbacks or regional processing, but an increase in the refugee resettlement intake from the UNHCR waitlist, and greater regional co-operation to help Indonesia and Malaysia deal with their problems at the source.
phoenix 577
It seems things are going to get worse for the Libs till there is a spill and there is no guarantee that they will improve after the spill.
I will be watching tonight’s election results with even more interest, I will also watch Insiders tomorrow for the first time in ages.
Fran @ 570
[It’s not about selling papers. It’s about influence peddling]
This is chicken and egg. Murdoch can only peddle influence as long as lots of people read his papers. For that, his papers have to remain attractive to his readership. When the CM put Abbott in a clown’s uniform, that was not Murdoch taking the lead but reflecting back to the readership what they were already thinking. That does not mean he won’t take the lead – especially in the alternative universe inhabited by The Australian. But he still has to keep his eye on the readers.
[The ALP has bled to the left on this but since they pick up preferences, the effect has been minimal in changing the dynamic between the rightwing parties.]
True to some extent. But as a broad-based party, Labor are aware that there are rusted-on Labor voters who would rather vote Liberal than Green and would abandon Labor much more quickly. While Labor is the party of Melissa Parke, it is also the party of Joe de Bruyn and people who think like them all want their party to represent their views.
Finally, as far as the desire to be seen as kinder and just goes, that desire is the first to go when you are feeling under stress and attack. Labor tried the kind and just approach in 2007 when it dismantled Nauru and the Pacific Solution. I thought it was a good idea at the time. So did most of the public and so did many Liberals, including Sharman Stone the immigration spokesperson. Everyone thought it was good to be safe and kind because the boats had completely stopped. Subsequent events proved all of us wrong. The Liberals are pretending, hypocritically, that they never stopped supporting the tough approach of 2001, but the truth is very different.
At the next election no major party will win if it is seen as being ‘soft’ on boats and asylum seekers who come by boat. Labor has been scarred irretrievably by its actions in 2007 in dismantling the system, even though there is a strong justification for what it did at the time. History has now been written across the board to deem it a mistake and, like it or not, Labor will not go there. They are prepared to lose significant numbers to the Greens rather than lose disastrous numbers to the Liberals.
lizzie @ 583
[So Brough is to be the sacrificial meerkat? I’d like to see that.]
It worked very well for Kevin Andrews. Two senior Cabinet posts in a row – neither of which he has the least competence to do.