BludgerTrack: 53.4-46.6 to Labor

The latest weekly poll aggregate reading all but wipes out the Coalition’s gains over New Year, for which the Prince Philip debacle can offer only a partial explanation.

The New Year polling drought has come to an end with three new results this week, and the promise at least of Ipsos returning in the next weekly cycle. This of course comes at a particularly interesting time, in view of the Prince Philip idiocy and subsequent ramping up of leadership speculation. However, this week’s batch of polls when taken together offer only a partial account of the impact of an announcement that was made on Monday. To deal with them in chronological order:

Essential Research surveyed from Friday to Monday, but even without much scope for the Prince Philip issue to affect the result, its fortnightly rolling average produced what by its standards was significant movement to Labor. After moving a point to the Coalition last week, Labor’s two-party lead was back to 54-46, from primary votes of 41% for Labor, 39% for the Coalition and 9% for the Greens. As always, half of this result comes from the previous week.

Roy Morgan deviated somewhat from its usual practice in providing a poll of 2057 respondents in which the field work was conducted from Friday to Tuesday, in contrast to its usual practice of combining two weeks of results and surveying only on the weekend. In other words, a substantial part of the survey period came after the Prince Philip disaster. Compared with the poll that covered the first two weekends of the year, Labor gained a point on the primary vote directly at the Coalition’s expense, leaving them at 37.5% and 39.5% respectively, while the Greens were up from 9.5% to 12%. That left Labor with formidable two-party leads of 56.5-43.5 on respondent-allocated preferences, up from 54.5-45.5, and 55.5-44.5 on previous election preferences, up from 53-47 to 55.5-44.5.

• The Seven Network sent ReachTEL into the field on Tuesday evening to gauge the impact of Sir Prince Philip, and all things considered the result could have been worse for the Coalition, who trailed 54-46 from primary votes of 40.1% for Labor, 39.7% for the Coalition and 11.3% for the Greens. Things got uglier with questions on Tony Abbott’s leadership, which you can read about at the link.

When all that’s plugged into BludgerTrack, the model’s reaction is to move the two-party preferred result 0.9% in favour of Labor, translating into gains on the seat projection of two in New South Wales and one each in Queensland and Western Australia. One suspects there will be more where that came from over the next week or two. However, as you can see from the trendlines on the sidebar, the model does not read this as movement to Labor over the past week, but has rather retrospectively determined that the movements being recorded over New Year (Coalition up, Greens down) hadn’t happened after all.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

793 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.4-46.6 to Labor”

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  1. AS

    I’m not sure if you’ve seen my past posts on the questions you raise, and I am not going to recapitulate tonight — I’m sitting awaiting takeaway food — but IMO we need to be part of a system of burden sharing based on our total and per capita GDP and the percentages of actual refugees seeking resettlement. I have previously calculated these numbers as being in the range of 150,000 to a little over 300,000 in any given year. Not all of these would necessarily be settled here — we might sponsor places in suitable third countries providing consent was obtained from all parties. Similarly, other participating jurisdictions could choose either to host and/or sponsor places in Australia or other places. In some cases, we might be able to resettle some applicants here or elsewhere under non-humanitarian programs freeing up more places, and reduce our own non-humanitarian intakes, should this be deemed necessary.

  2. Looking at the QEC website (which has an incredible range of detailed statistics) there is a category called ‘Exhausted’ at the end of each list of candidates in each seat. What does this refer to?

  3. And in the interim, Arnie, we certainly should radically improve conditions and processing in the major aggregation points in our region so as to discourage IMPs, and seek to support human rights progress in places like Sri Lanka.

  4. [Steven Grant Haby
    Posted Saturday, January 31, 2015 at 7:43 pm | Permalink

    Looking at the QEC website (which has an incredible range of detailed statistics) there is a category called ‘Exhausted’ at the end of each list of candidates in each seat. What does this refer to?]

    They just get completely sick and tired of it all and go home.

  5. Just me @ 722

    justme @ 633 has a wife, apparently.

    You have a doppleganger!

    And hey, I do at least almost half the cleaning, most of the cooking and 43.68% of the changing of nappies.

    Although I’d rather wear a crumpled shirt than iron it.

    (This has nothing to do with our esteemed dimwit P.M. thinking ironing is woman’s work).

  6. Indeed they are BW, but I’m thinking of what Abbott is likely to come up with and not what he could and past history, into which he appears to be retreating, possibly as a result of stress, suggests to me that he’ll go the simple, lazy and, once upon a time, oh so successful route. He’s had a free ride from the media for five years. I doubt if it will have sunk in yet that it seems to be over.

  7. Mrs Bogan and I both gave up ironing 18 years ago. Our lives have both been richer for it and neither of us has suffered any significant disadvantage of any kind.

  8. I am settling in to watch the Asian Cup Final on the ABC. For the Anthem I see a couple the Aussie kids with the players and two were girls in hijabs. That was a nice multicultural touch to proceedings. I assume Abbott is not at Australia Stadium for this match. (Thank goodness).

  9. [theintellectualbogan
    Posted Saturday, January 31, 2015 at 7:50 pm | Permalink

    Indeed they are BW, but I’m thinking of what Abbott is likely to come up with…]

    Morrison will drive a lot of this sort of stuff… but from the other, bastardising, end.

    Whether Abbott/Credlin/Simkins have the combined wit to reframe it away from Morrison Of Manus’s megalomaniacal maliciousness is another matter entirely.

  10. Puff, the Magic Dragon.

    [That was a nice multicultural touch to proceedings]
    Watching the NZ v Pakistan game tonight it was good to see a twenty somethings Asian couple in the crowd dressed in the trooly rooly gawd awful beige kiwi cricket uniform from the 1980s. You gotta be hard core to wear them 🙂 Crowd very racially mixed and partying on.

  11. Bit sad, kids returning to Germany tonight.

    But bloody ecstatic at the result in Qld.

    And, go Swanee, none of this twee, faux gravitas, bi-partisanship that seems to prevail on election panels, he’s really sticking it up the LNP, and especially to Bullshit Extraordinaire Prime Drongo Abbott and his baby-idiot offshoot, Campbell Newman.

  12. Galaxy Federal

    57-43 2PP to ALP

    Primaries: Coalition 36, ALP 43, Greens 11, PUP 3
    Preferred PM: Abbott 27, Shorten 44

    Knighthood for Prince Phillip: Agree 14, Disapprove 70
    Should Australia become a Republic: yes 39, No 40

  13. JBish said Julia Gillard should sack Bob Carr because a PM could not have a Foreign Minister who couldn’t be trusted.

    Should Abbott now sack JBishop for the same treachery?

    JBish said a female leader should never do a photoshoot.

    Should JBish resign because she did the same?

    JBish has never had the goolies to run for PM. Too scared of her multi-boyfriend, corruption-tainted (by the boyfriends) past.

    First failed marriage, Ross Lightfoot, Crichton-Browne, Nattrass, and the newbie with a Californian tan and a number of nubile wench daughters.

    And that she was a complete arsehole to JG.

    I wouldn’t give her an inch, let alone a mm.

    The best thing that could happen to JBish would be to get a dose of her own medicine.

    But, by gee, I hope the dickwads at LNP HQ annoint her. And she suffers all the shit she dished out to any woman who got in her way.

  14. Let’s face it, we have all been bemused that Bludgertrack is still over 45% TPP for the LNP. Galaxy have obviously fixed their sample filters 🙂

  15. [ QLD lost and 57-43 federal polling? ]

    Words not needed really. 🙂

    Although, do you reckon TBA and ESJ are huddled in the corner of a bunker somewhere sobbing??

  16. ALP now $1.9 to win the next federal election. LNP $1.91 on

    Been quite a while since the ALP was shorter priced.

  17. Yeah I speculated a couple of days ago that a stalking horse would be found to set the ball rolling if the party couldn’t find one candidate they could all rally behind. Thought Dutton might be stupid enough to do it, but I forgot they had a ready made idiot perfect for the job in Brough.

    A good bloody fight. Popcorn please.

  18. [Thought Dutton might be stupid enough to do it, but I forgot they had a ready made idiot perfect for the job in Brough.]
    Well it wouldn’t be Andrews without Minchin to pull his strings.

  19. I suspect Libs under Turnbull or even Morrison would be a lot more competitive. Can’t see Bishop making much of a fist of it.

  20. Steven Grant Haby, exhausted means there was no preference allocation on the Greens ticket, for example. The voter just put 1 next to the candidates name.

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