The New Year polling drought has come to an end with three new results this week, and the promise at least of Ipsos returning in the next weekly cycle. This of course comes at a particularly interesting time, in view of the Prince Philip idiocy and subsequent ramping up of leadership speculation. However, this week’s batch of polls when taken together offer only a partial account of the impact of an announcement that was made on Monday. To deal with them in chronological order:
• Essential Research surveyed from Friday to Monday, but even without much scope for the Prince Philip issue to affect the result, its fortnightly rolling average produced what by its standards was significant movement to Labor. After moving a point to the Coalition last week, Labor’s two-party lead was back to 54-46, from primary votes of 41% for Labor, 39% for the Coalition and 9% for the Greens. As always, half of this result comes from the previous week.
• Roy Morgan deviated somewhat from its usual practice in providing a poll of 2057 respondents in which the field work was conducted from Friday to Tuesday, in contrast to its usual practice of combining two weeks of results and surveying only on the weekend. In other words, a substantial part of the survey period came after the Prince Philip disaster. Compared with the poll that covered the first two weekends of the year, Labor gained a point on the primary vote directly at the Coalition’s expense, leaving them at 37.5% and 39.5% respectively, while the Greens were up from 9.5% to 12%. That left Labor with formidable two-party leads of 56.5-43.5 on respondent-allocated preferences, up from 54.5-45.5, and 55.5-44.5 on previous election preferences, up from 53-47 to 55.5-44.5.
• The Seven Network sent ReachTEL into the field on Tuesday evening to gauge the impact of Sir Prince Philip, and all things considered the result could have been worse for the Coalition, who trailed 54-46 from primary votes of 40.1% for Labor, 39.7% for the Coalition and 11.3% for the Greens. Things got uglier with questions on Tony Abbott’s leadership, which you can read about at the link.
When all that’s plugged into BludgerTrack, the model’s reaction is to move the two-party preferred result 0.9% in favour of Labor, translating into gains on the seat projection of two in New South Wales and one each in Queensland and Western Australia. One suspects there will be more where that came from over the next week or two. However, as you can see from the trendlines on the sidebar, the model does not read this as movement to Labor over the past week, but has rather retrospectively determined that the movements being recorded over New Year (Coalition up, Greens down) hadn’t happened after all.
[Arrnea Stormbringer
Posted Saturday, January 31, 2015 at 6:39 pm | Permalink
@ Alan Shore, 675
I was responding to accusations (from Boerwar et al) that the policy I proposed at 609 would have led to 50 million refugees beating a path to our door.]
Of course they would. If you are huddled under a tent half a day’s toyota drive away from Somalia, whence bad guys come and murder you and your’s, of course you would want to come to Australia.
The issue that the Greens resolutely refuse to address is that of numbers. They seem to believe (as does SYRIZA) that if you close your eyes for long enough, the numbers will just go away.
That is not how the real world operates.
“@9NewsBrisbane: JUST IN: #9News Galaxy exit poll predicts state swing of 16.8% from @LNPQLD to @QldLabor. #QldVotes #QldPol http://t.co/TeIOKiq7SF”
[WarrenPeace
Posted Saturday, January 31, 2015 at 6:54 pm | Permalink
Boerwar 693 As Treebeard would say let’s not be hasty.]
I would not have a clue, personally. I was just offering the observation that the straws in the wind have not flapped the pros (who are on both sides of the equation).
One little bit.
Boerwar
Yep. Sky panel Are relaxed and comfortable. No indication that they expect an upset tonight
[Arrnea Stormbringer
Posted Saturday, January 31, 2015 at 6:53 pm | Permalink
PS: Read my goddamn posts before responding to them, Boerwar.]
You Greens need more happy and peaceful pills, man.
You do not explain how many people of the 50,000,000 will actually arrive in Australia as a consequence of your proposed policies. Numbers matter, after all. I faithfully promise to read your number very carefully, once you post it.
@ Boerwar, 701
As I’ve pointed out, the mere 50,000 who made the trip during Labor’s “open-slather” years (compared to tens of millions of refugees) would suggest that your assessment is incorrect.
We would, after all, not be the only country in the world to accept refugees.
Justme @ 663
I have no particular interest in your wife, however, it should be of no concern to her or anyone else why a person cannot/ will not provide identification in order to vote.
As another poster mentioned earlier, an identification to vote rule was used in some of southern United States up until the early 60’s as a deliberate ploy to prevent illiterate and semi-literate black people from voting.
There is simply no justifiable reason to have it here.
@ Boerwar, 705
Go back and read my post at 686, because you clearly didn’t read it the first time.
Or, y’know, go suck a lemon.
Thinking about the red part of the Australian Greens favourite SYRIZAN Government it sort of seemed to me that there is a conundrum for SYRIZA to solve and it is this:
If you talk about other people’s money with the contempt you think it deserves then other people will take you at your word.
That infamous exit poll was a small smaple from 17 electorates.
Back to the Chardonnay, folks.
BW
It’s much too early to determine how the Syriza-led regime in Greece will affect lving standards in Greece. We don’t yet know for sure how it will play out. All that we can know for sure is that all of the previous occupants of office failed abysmally to ensure that the needs of the working people of Greece were adequately addressed.
It might be that there is no approach that can achieve that in the short term, but we will see. Certainly they are coming off a very inauspicious base.
For the record, I am chuffed that Syriza outpolled the parties of austerity, including the pathetic PASOK. Alex Tsipras seems an erudite and public spirited chap. I am disappointed that they have chosen to include ANEL — the Greek equivalent of the UKIP — in their regime. It’s a dangerous course IMO. They ought to have approached the President and declared they could rule alone, and challenged the KKE and ANEL and PASOK members to obstruct them. We will see how their course plays out, but as a friend of working people, I wish them well and am disappointed to read of your distress at the prospect of a progressive and just government in Greece.
ABC24 has Wayne Swan as panellist tonight
[Arrnea Stormbringer
Posted Saturday, January 31, 2015 at 6:59 pm | Permalink
@ Boerwar, 701
As I’ve pointed out, the mere 50,000 who made the trip during Labor’s “open-slather” years (compared to tens of millions of refugees) would suggest that your assessment is incorrect.
We would, after all, not be the only country in the world to accept refugees.]
So, you think that 50,000 out of 50,000,000 would get here under Greens’ policies? If not, instead of trying to guess whether I have read your posts, what figure do you offer?
AS
[ead my goddamn posts before responding to them, Boerwar.]
Good luck with that. Once he gets into one of his rants, he tends to cherry-pick the material he needs for his strawmen.
@ Boerwar, 713
I’d guess it’d be somewhere north of that, but people talking of “millions” are talking out of their asses.
“@randlight: Laurie Oakes on ch 9.
“If this exit poll is correct than Tony Abbott is dead meat.””
On a completely different note I’m watching NZ v Pakistan . One of their bowlers , Mohammad Irfan , makes the West Indies ‘Big Bird’ look a short arsk. He is 216 cm , 7 foot 1 inch in the old money.
[BW
It’s much too early to determine how the Syriza-led regime in Greece will affect living standards in Greece.]
Except if you are living in Greece, of course. This is not a Greens theoretical exercise.
Because if the SYRIZAN Government cannot pay the police and pensioners by the end of March, as they seem to think may be possible, then you can say with absolute confidence that SYRIZA has already affected living standards in Greece.
If the capital flight figure of 15 billion euros is correct then you can say with absolute certainty that the private sector has abandoned Greece.
If the bank run is only limited to 5% then that is not too bad. But just imagine the consequences in Australia of a bank run amounting to 5%. You could say with absolute certainty that it would reduce Australian living standards.
If the bond rate is 16.5% then you have the global assessment of SYRIZAN good faith: there is no good faith.
I notice you say absolutely nothing about the sorts of things that the Greens do not want to talk about in relation to Greece: good faith, taxes in general, institutional reform, Greeksmailing, property tax and repaying the money you have borrowed so that you could evade paying tax, squirrel your profits overseas and retire at 55.
There is much in common with the SYRIZANS and the Greens. The SYRIZANs have promised the impossible: spend more, borrow more and don’t pay your debts. Easy as that.
They have started government by unilaterally breaking the existing agreement. We can all trust SYRIZANs with our money, right?
I bet you that Australian Greens are not rushing to show their faith and trust in SYRIZA by buying Greek Government bonds. The Greens might be a bit soft at times, but they are not THAT crazy.
[I am disappointed that they have chosen to include ANEL — the Greek equivalent of the UKIP — in their regime.]
UKIP includes the Golden Dawn equivalents as well as the ANEL equivalents. Rundle, who appears to know what he is talking about in relation to some of these matters, summarizes ANEL as ‘fruitcakes’ – just maddies – not the maddie baddie murdering bastards who haunt Golden Dawn.
While I do like Swannie, the problem with having Federal pollies covering state elections is that they can’t resist sticking their talking points into their commentary.
Swan went from zero to Abbott in about 3 seconds there.
[poroti
Posted Saturday, January 31, 2015 at 7:10 pm | Permalink
On a completely different note I’m watching NZ v Pakistan . One of their bowlers , Mohammad Irfan , makes the West Indies ‘Big Bird’ look a short arsk. He is 216 cm , 7 foot 1 inch in the old money.]
My advice to the NZ batters would be not to complain about any white wristbands.
[Arrnea Stormbringer
Posted Saturday, January 31, 2015 at 7:04 pm | Permalink
@ Boerwar, 713
I’d guess it’d be somewhere north of that, but people talking of “millions” are talking out of their asses.]
Come on Arrnea, you are making a serious policy statement. You need to back it with some back-of-the-envelope figures.
Your airy blue sky stuff destroys your credibility completely.
[707
BlurbUllage
Justme @ 663
I have no particular interest in your wife,…]
I have a wife?
Then how come I am doing all the shopping, cooking, cleaning, washing, and, of course, carbon-tax free ironing in this house? Not to mention having to self-administer in a single bed.
I think you have the wrong suspect this time. 😉
“@jamesmassola: Amazing. Journos not allowed inside at the LNP event. #qldvotes #qldpol”
@ Boerwar, 721
I’m a scientist – I’m not going to make up a figure without first having some solid evidence to back it up.
In any case, the number is not the primary concern.
[teh_drewski
Posted Saturday, January 31, 2015 at 7:14 pm | Permalink
While I do like Swannie, the problem with having Federal pollies covering state elections is that they can’t resist sticking their talking points into their commentary.
Swan went from zero to Abbott in about 3 seconds there.]
Swannie was always a bit slow.
[Arrnea Stormbringer
Posted Saturday, January 31, 2015 at 7:18 pm | Permalink
@ Boerwar, 721
I’m a scientist – I’m not going to make up a figure without first having some solid evidence to back it up.
In any case, the number is not the primary concern.]
You are advocating a national policy and you do not have a clue about the consequences. Typical Greens policy making.
STILL arguing about Greece?
Sheesh……….
@ Boerwar, 726
We just have different ideas about what consequences are of import.
To my mind, the most important aspects of asylum seeker policy are:
a) Ensuring that human rights are respected,
b) Efficiently processing claims, and
c) Saving money for the Australian taxpayer.
The amount of legitimate refugees that make claims under the system is not important (and is anyway a function of the PUSH factors in other countries, not PULL factors in Australia).
PS: As you’ve once failed to actually read my posts, this is the last one you’ll get from me.
Boerwar
He was damn good at getting balls to jam up into the ribs. From the height the ball was being released from you can imagine how steep it was rising. Caused muay probs.
[In any case, the number is not the primary concern.]
Au contraire, the number (or more precisely, how you determine it,) is the main issue.
Given the number is finite, how do you determine the optimal intake for the next year?
[Swannie was always a bit slow.]
🙂
[Fran Barlow
Posted Saturday, January 31, 2015 at 7:03 pm | Permalink
AS
ead my goddamn posts before responding to them, Boerwar.
Good luck with that. Once he gets into one of his rants, he tends to cherry-pick the material he needs for his strawmen.]
Arnnea has gone back to do some sums about the consequences of his/her very strange notion of asylum seeker polices.
As for SYRIZA, I have repeatedly arrived with the whole damn orchard. It is the (red) Greens who have been shamed by their unthinking and uncritical ideology-based support of the Putin-loving SYRIZANs.
And that is even before we get to the homophobic, anti-semitic and chemtrail-fearing Coalition mates of SYRIZANs.
If Abbott is gone by the end of May he will have been Australia’s 21st longest serving PM, just behind Billy McMahon. That’s 21 out of 28. If you disregard those who seved short terms as caretakers, it’s 21 out of 24. Disregarding short-lived PMships that commenced prior to WWI, when our two party system had yet bedded down, it’s 21/21.
Delicious, even if Labor might do better if he stayed on until the next election.
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Prime_Ministers_of_Australia_by_time_in_office#/search
Arrnea @634
I have a number of warning flags in political discourse that I use. “Common-sense” means – “what I think, not that other group”. Same for “objective/subjective” and “emotional/rational”. The Greens views on AS are based on concern for others who are not so well-off (and how!). The touchstone I use is a book by Gandhi I read when I was young – “All Men are Brothers”. Translating the words we now see as sexist, there are ethical views there which must be taken into account
@ Just Me, 731
You’re entitled to that opinion, but it’s quite clear that if you set an arbitrary limit on the number of refugees you take, the result is that you will have to detain some people indefinitely (thanks to the non-refoulement obligations under international law).
This is not an acceptable outcome.
[poroti
Posted Saturday, January 31, 2015 at 7:23 pm | Permalink
Boerwar
He was damn good at getting balls to jam up into the ribs. From the height the ball was being released from you can imagine how steep it was rising. Caused muay probs.]
I understand that the EnZedder response is going to be a first X1 batting lineup consisting entirely of left-handed dwarves.
Pardon my ignorance but did PUP stand candidates in every Qld seat? Which seat is Hanson standing in?
@ phylactella, 734
I’m not criticising the heart of the Greens’ policies – I agree with them that our system at the moment is utterly inhumane.
It is merely my argument that the Greens have very little in the way of concrete, operational detail on how they would handle asylum seekers, having wound back the inhumane Coalition/Labor policies. This is something they need to work on if they want to capture more of the public opinion on the matter.
[Arrnea Stormbringer
Posted Saturday, January 31, 2015 at 7:22 pm | Permalink
PS: As you’ve once failed to actually read my posts, this is the last one you’ll get from me.]
Typical Greens poster. Full of bluff and bluster on policy until tested about numbers, then reduced to some personal abuse before storming off with their bat and ball.
When is some knowledgeable Greens poster who knows all about asylum seeker policies actually going to post a NUMBER?
@ Steven Grant Haby, 737
No, they didn’t.
Hanson is standing (for One Nation) in Lockyer.
Boerwar
[first X1 batting lineup consisting entirely of left-handed dwarves]
Considering how he bowled a few wides (too high) of a not very short length that is not so silly .
All persons are siblings.
So, as a little light relief from Greece and boats, how about some predictions about Tony Abbott’s NPC speech (assuming he’s still PM by then)?
A speed read of the front page of the Canberra Times this morning suggested that he is on notice to use the opportunity to begin to frame a compelling narrative for the government.
However, given his latest reversion to factory visit stunts and bike rides, I predict a return to traditional Tone subjects like:
Stopped the boats.
Axed the Carbon and Mining Taxes
Pink Batts
With a generous helping of “Labor controlled Senate” and “Difficult choices”.
Because, let’s face it, exactly what else has he got?
First booth result from Davenport SA. Bedford Park ALP 55%
BK
[First booth result from Davenport SA. Bedford Park ALP 55%]
Goodness me. There is an enclave of Bolsheviks in your electorate 😀
BK @ 744
Does that result bode well for the ALP thus far?
@ BK, 744
2015 election had it about 50-50 in that booth, so that looks like around a 5% swing.
poroti
I got out of that electorate 15 years ago and moved to Mayo (dear Alex!) and now to bloody Briggs’ electorate.
SGH
May not be enough – but too early yet.
tib
There has been one very obvious, easy, and virtually cost-free suite of reforms:
(1) national leadership on domestic violence – going beyond the simple expedient of all jurisdictions legitimising the AVOs of all other Australian jurisdictions. It could include a law reform task force, and a cheap but effective MSM information and moral suasion program.
(2) reformed PPL to get rid of the nanny tax elements and to enable unworking women to access it
(3) means testing social security transfers to women in particular and families in particular.
(4) domestic violence offenders whether men or women would be sent, in the first instance to re-education institutes. (or some set of words like that).
(5) some means-tested child-care support.
The above would be difficult for Shorten to counter. If he had had any sense he would have been touting them for some time now.
But they are not a zingerly suite of reforms, are they?